The Gamble: General Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq

by Thomas E. Ricks

  10 “The truth is that many commands”: Capt. Martin’s assertion is made in his article “Tempo, Technology and Hubris,” Marine Corps Gazette, May 2007.

  11 “I’d never seen it at this level before”: Maj. Mendelson’s observation is in his interview for the Leavenworth series “Operational Leadership Experiences.”

  12 “By and large, the battalions continued to do what they knew best”: West’s comment is in his book The Strongest Tribe (Random House, 2008).

  13 “The costs of failure are likely to be high”: This appears in “The War in Iraq: An Interim Assessment,” by Andrew Krepinevich, prepared for OSD/Net Assessment, November 2005.

  14 “Haziness about ends and means”: Cohen’s comment is in “No Way to Win a War,” the Wall Street Journal, 7 December 2006.

  15 the United States needs a real strategy: Krepinevich’s article “How to Win in Iraq” appeared in the September/October 2005 edition of Foreign Affairs.

  16 “To be effective, the so-called pacification program”: Kissinger’s article was “The Viet Nam Negotiations,” Foreign Affairs, January 1969.

  19 “to be a good average is safer”: Lloyd George’s comment is quoted in The Rules of the Game: Jutland and British Naval Command, by Andrew Gordon (John Murray, 1996).

  22 “a combination of being the president and the pope”: This Petraeus comment appeared in the Washington Post, 16 May 2003.

  22 “If others found him hard to love”: Rick Atkinson’s comment is in his book In the Company of Soldiers (Henry Holt, 2004), as is Gen. Freakley’s comment about Atkinson being “probably closer to him.”

  Chapter 2: How to Fight This War

  25 “cultural insensitivity”: Brig. Aylwin-Foster’s article, titled “Changing the Army for Counterinsurgency Operations,” was carried in Military Review, November-December 2005.

  26 “The population . . . becomes the objective”: This appears in Galula’s seminal work, Counterinsurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice (Praeger, 1964).

  27 “paradoxes of counterinsurgency”: This and the subsequent series of quotations are from “Principles, Imperatives and Paradoxes of Counterinsurgency,” Military Review, March-April 2006.

  27 playing with paradox: This aspect of Abbasid literature is discussed by Hugh Kennedy in When Baghdad Ruled the Muslim World: The Rise and Fall of Islam’s Greatest Dynasty (Da Capo, 2004).

  28 “In counterinsurgency, killing the enemy is easy”: Several months after Petraeus read Kilcullen’s essay, which circulated first by e-mail, it was carried in Military Review, May-June 2006.

  29 “An operation that kills five insurgents is counterproductive”: The manual was published as FM 3-24: Counterinsurgency, Headquarters, Department of the Army, December 2006.

  31 “We needed elections”: This is in the essay by Gen. Fastabend titled “How This All Ends: It’s fourth and long, go deep,” unpublished document given to Gen. Petraeus, late April 2007.

  31 the leading Shiite party, the United Iraqi Alliance, won 70 of 81 seats: The data in this paragraph is from “Iraq’s Year of Voting Dangerously,” by A. I. Dawisha and Larry Diamond, Journal of Democracy, April 2006.

  32 “we heard an explosion”: From Maj. Lewis’s interview for Leavenworth’s “Operational Leadership Experiences” archives.

  33 violence had increased at a steady pace since March 2005: This is from the Pentagon’s report to Congress “Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq,” December 2007.

  33 “The situation in the last six months”: Kubasi was quoted in the Washington Post, 23 January 2006.

  34 “We have become reactive”: This is from Capt. Martin’s article “Tempo, Technology and Hubris,” Marine Corps Gazette, May 2007.

  37 “Every time you left the gate”: From Maj. Williamson’s interview, “Operational Leadership Experiences,” Fort Leavenworth.

  41 “We live in darkness”: Jasim was quoted in the Washington Post, of 29 May 2006.

  46 “rose considerably”: Capt. Comstock’s study “The Battle for Saydia: An Ongoing Case Study in Militia Based Insurgency” was carried on the website Small Wars Journal, April 2008.

  46 “JAM/Shia militia group kidnaps a Sunni male”: Capt. Haas was quoted in Comstock’s study, see previous note.

  46 “People are killed here every day”: Capt. Showman’s observation is in the Washington Post, of 27 October 2007.

  47 “Leave, join or die”: Capt. Francis is quoted in Comstock’s study cited earlier in this chapter.

  47 “I don’t think this place”: Sgt. Alarcon is quoted in same Washington Post article of 27 October 2007 that quoted Showman earlier in this chapter.

  47 “When we got there, it was mixed Sunni and Shia”: Maj. Gilmore’s interview, “Operational Leadership Experiences,” Fort Leavenworth.

  47 “The social and political situation”: Col. Devlin’s analysis “State of the Insurgency in al Anbar,” 17 August 2006, bears his title (“II MEF G-2”) but not his name.

  48 “Using a small, localized cell”: Capt. Few’s study “The Break Point: AQIZ Establishes the ISI in Zaganiyah” was carried on the website Small Wars Journal, also in April 2008.

  50 “They ordered these Kurdish units”: From Maj. Matt Whitney’s interview, “Operational Leadership Experiences.”

  51 “kiss of death”: Kilcullen’s comment was made in a briefing titled “Counterinsurgency in Iraq: Theory and Practice, 2007.”

  54 “deeply flawed in timing and resources”: Cordesman’s comment appears in his essay “Iraqi Force Development,” distributed 27 November 2006.

  54 “The strategy was a hope”: From West’s book Strongest Tribe, (Random House, 2008). 57 “You’d find dumped bodies”: From Maj. Voorhies’s interview “Operational Leadership Experiences.”

  57 “We may need more resources”: West and Cohen, “Our Only Hope,” Wall Street Journal, 8 January 2007.

  58 “We had two bites of this apple”: Most of the quotations from Gen. Keane in this book are from the hours of interviews I did with him, but this one is from the transcript of an interview he did with Frontline.

  59 “I don’t believe we can continue”: Senator Snowe was quoted in the Washington Post, 20 October 2006.

  59 A light in Ramadi: Much of this section is based on an interview with Col. MacFarland, as well as follow-up exchanges by e-mail, but a few of the quotations from him are from his official interview with the Contemporary Operations Study Team at the Army’s Combat Studies Institute, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas.

  62 “It was actually a very small number”: Lt. Col. Negard was quoted in the Washington Post, 2 May 2006.

  62 But Carter Malkasian: His observation is in his article “A Thin Blue Line in the Sand,” DemocracyJournal. org, Summer 2007.

  63 “Today, there is no tribal sheikh”: Qadir, as quoted in the Washington Post, 20 May 2006.

  67 “For all intents and purposes”: Malkasian, “Thin Blue Line,” quoted earlier in this chapter.

  70 “Part of me died along”: Gibbs’s mother, Debbie Halstead, was quoted in the Winston-Salem Journal, 9 December 2006.

  70 “He was one of those people”: Ivan Ryndych’s comment appeared in Newsday, 8 December 2006.

  70 “Please don’t portray this as a tragedy”: Re McClung was quoted in the Los Angeles Times, 13 December 2006.

  71 “Well, Grant, we’ve had the devil’s own day”: This anecdote, which appears in many histories of the Civil War, was originally told to by Gen. Sherman to a reporter for the Washington Post and then quoted in the Army and Navy Journal, 30 December 1893, according to Jean Edward Smith’s Grant (Simon & Schuster, 2001).

  72 “Sean had obviously done something extraordinarily important”: The data in this paragraph, and earlier in this chapter, about the cooperation of Ramadi-area tribes is from a briefing, “Tribal Cooperation Jan 07,” that was given to Petraeus when he visited Ramadi in February 2007.

  Chapter 3: Keane Takes Command

  75 “one of the nastiest campaigns�
�: This appears in Sen. Webb’s book A Time to Fight (Broadway, 2008).

  76 “How’s your boy?”: The exchange between President Bush and Webb is based partly on an interview with Webb but mainly on an accounts in the Washington Post, 29 November 2006, and an article in The Washingtonian, February 2008.

  91 “We don’t easily jump”: Martin’s comment is in his interview with the Contemporary Operations Studies Team, Combat Studies Institute, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas.

  92 “It’s important to trust the judgment of the military”: President Bush’s interview with the Washington Post was quoted in the newspaper on 20 December 2006.

  93 “I am not persuaded”: Powell appeared on Face the Nation, 17 December 2006.

  94 “Without additional combat forces”: Senator McCain’s comment was quoted in the Washington Post, 17 November 2006.

  98 President Bush hit a new low in his ratings: The data here is from the Washington Post-ABC News Poll, posted by the Post, 12 December 2006.

  99 “there was not enough civilian participation”: From Kinnard’s The War Managers: American Generals Reflect on Vietnam (Da Capo, 1991).

  103 “We are losing”: The conclusions of the “council of colonels” are summarized in the briefing “Strategy for the Long War, 2006-2016: ‘Where we are going,’ 27 October 2006.”

  Chapter 4: A Strategy Is Born

  121 “Producing Victory”: Lt. Col. Ollivant’s article appeared in the July-August 2006 issue of Military Review.

  Chapter 5: If You’re So Smart . . .

  139 “sense of reality”: Ambassador Carney’s comment appeared in the Washington Post, 14 January 2007.

  Chapter 6: Gambling on a “Shitty Hand”

  155 “We redefined success”: Sky said this first to me in an interview about her work in the winter of 2006-7, then repeated it in her essay “Iraq 2007—Moving Beyond Counter-Insurgency Doctrine: A First-Hand Perspective,” published by the Royal United Services Institute, London, April 2008.

  156 “to settle for far less”: Fastabend’s essay “How This All Ends: It’s Fourth and Long, Go Deep,” unpublished document given to Gen. Petraeus, late April 2007.

  160 “rapid decisive operations”: For example, see “A Concept for Rapid Decisive Operations,” by the J-9 Joint Futures Lab, Joint Forces Command, August 2001.

  160 “dominant maneuver, precision engagement and information operations”: The study done at the School of Advanced Military Studies is “To Fight and Win America’s Wars . . . and Then What?: A critical analysis of rapid decisive operations in a post-Saddam Iraq,” by Army Lt. Col. John Metz, May 2003.

  161 “We need rapidly deployable”: Secretary Rumsfeld’s comments were made in a speech at the National Defense University, Washington, D.C., 31 January 2002.

  161 “Our mindset was not to kill”: Lt. Burns’s discussion appeared in his article on “Iraq and the Young Maneuver Leader,” Armor magazine, July-August 2008.

  163 “reaching terminal velocity”: Maj. Gillespie’s quotation is in his “Operational Leadership Experiences” interview with the Combat Studies Institute at Fort Leavenworth.

  163 “We refer not so much to the single outstandingly significant report”: Clausewitz’s insight on intelligence is made in his discussion of “The People,” book 6, chapter 6, of On War.

  166 “Get out of your Humvees”: This is from Maj. Halloran’s interview with the Combat Studies Institute at Fort Leavenworth.

  166 an average of more than one car bomb attack a day: The data in this paragraph on bombings and downings of helicopters was carried in “Iraq’s Sectarian and Ethnic Violence and Its Evolving Insurgency,” by Anthony Cordesman, with the assistance of Emma Davies, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 April 2007.

  166 “It’s getting worse”: Partlow’s article ran in the Washington Post, 6 February 2007.

  166 “When we first moved into the AO”: The operations officer is quoted in the report of the “Theater Operations Detachment” for the Center for Army Lessons Learned at Fort Leavenworth,” 13 January 2008.

  167 “Our first two weeks”: Lt. Carlisle’s recollection is in the same CALL report.

  167 “My platoon sergeant came to Iraq”: Lt. Williamson’s comment was made on the Army website Platoon Leader.

  167 “We did not know”: Lt. Col. Crider’s quotations are from “Operation Close Encounters,” an unpublished essay that circulated by e-mail.

  167 “constant enemy small-arms fire”: Lt. Gross’s comments are from the website Platoon Leader.

  167 “We don’t need any more information”: Capt. Keirsey recounted his bluff in “Reflections of a Counterinsurgency Company Commander,” which appeared first on the Army website Company Commander and was reprinted in the June and July 2008 issues of Army magazine. Keirsey also was interviewed in the CALL report.

  171 “qualified optimist” and “hardest that I have ever experienced”: Except for this paragraph, and for the first paragraph in chapter 10, the quotations from Gen. Petraeus in this book are from interviews I did with him or from documents. In this paragraph, “qualified optimist” was a comment he made in an interview on Charlie Rose, 26 April 2007. The other quotation appeared in the Times of London, 21 February 2008, in an online posting of the transcript of an interview by Deborah Hayes.

  171 “I never thought I was going to see”: Staff Sgt. Nunez’s quotation appeared in Stars & Stripes, 24 April 2008.

  173 “dividing neighbor from neighbor”: Professor Niva made this assertion in “The New Walls of Baghdad,” Foreign Policy in Focus Report, 21 April 2008.

  174 “The insurgency is like a shark”: This appears in “13 Bullets on the Insurgency in Anbar,” issued by the Marine intelligence staff in Iraq in March 2008.

  174 “The Defense of Jisr al-Doreaa”: This was carried on the Small Wars Journal website in June 2008. I am told it will be published as a book by the University of Chicago Press.

  176 “First people weren’t working with us”: Lt. Col. Michael is quoted in the CALL report.

  176 “When we first came over”: Col. Grigsby made this comment during a briefing with reporters at the Pentagon, 13 December 2007.

  178 “hopeless”: Lt. Freeze’s memoir, “Notes from Down Range,” was carried on the Army website Platoon Leader.

  180 “They were carrying bodies”: The Iraqi’s comment appeared in the Washington Post, 4 February 2007.

  180 “These guys are real smart”: Lt. Von Plinsky was quoted in the Washington Post, 22 April 2007.

  181 “the insurgents assassinated him”: Spec. Hollopeter was quoted in Stars & Stripes, 19 June 2007.

  181 The battle of Tarmiyah: Most of this section is based on interviews with soldiers involved in this action and with documents provided by their commanders. I first learned of this fight from an account by Greg Jaffe that appeared in the Wall Street Journal on 3 May 2007. Among the documents I used were “Memorandum for Commander, 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division / Subject: 15-6 Investigation Concerning the Suicide Vehicle Borne Improvised (SBVIED) attack on the Tarmiyah Combat Outpost,” by Lt. Col. Scott Efflandt, 2 March 2007; “Patrol Base Tarmiyah: Critical Event Lessons Learned,” undated PowerPoint briefing; “Demon Co. Update,” 1st Sgt. William Tramel, 25 February 2007; “The Battle for AO North,” a history of the operations in Iraq in 2006-7 of the 2nd Battalion, 8th Cavalry Regiment.

  181 “The explosion threw me”: Lt. Jokinen’s memory is in “Sworn Statement of 1LT Jokinen, Shawn R, 19 Feb 07.”

  182 “Everything was black”: Staff Sgt. Copeland’s recollection is from “Sworn statement of the events of 19 Feb 2007, Tarmiyah, Iraq, D C 2-8 Cav, Statement of SSG Copeland.”

  185 “The very fundamental issue”: Gen. Sheehan’s criticism appeared in the Washington Post, 11 April 2007.

  185 “It flat out sucks”: Pvt. Perkins’s complaint was quoted in the Washington Post, 13 April 2007.

  185 “I believe myself . . . that this war is lost”: Senator Reid�
�s assessment was quoted in the Washington Post, 20 April 2007.

  186 “a brief exchange of fire”: That characterization appeared in Stars & Stripes, 1 September 2008, as did the quotations from the testimony of Pfc. Hartson and of Sgt. Leahy.

  188 “admit defeat”: Gen. Rose’s conclusion was reported in the London Daily Telegraph, 4 May 2007.

  188 “The war in Iraq is approaching”: Kissinger’s warning was offered in an opinion article that ran in the Washington Post, 10 July 2007.

  188 “Today, the wind—by grace of Allah”: Al Qaeda’s boast was quoted in the U.S. government’s digest of Jihadist Websites on OpenSource.gov, 5 July 2007.

  188 “We’re tired of being lost”: Sgt. 1st Class Eaglin’s gloomy comment appeared in the Washington Post, 8 May 2007.

  189 “I don’t see any progress”: Spec. Tertulien’s comment was quoted in the Los Angeles Times, 25 August 2007.

  189 “We passed the top half of a HMMWV”: Lt. Weber’s recollection is in his untitled interview on the Army’s Platoon Leader website.

  189 “I can’t take it anymore”: This suicide is recounted in a remarkable series of articles that appeared in Army Times in December 2007.

  189 “We see that a vast majority”: The opinion piece by the seven soldiers from the 82nd Airborne (Spec. Buddhika Jaymaha, Sgt. Wesley Smith, Sgt. Jeremy Roebuck, Sgt. Omar Mara, Sgt. Edward Sandmeier, Staff Sgt. Yance Gray, and Staff Sgt. Jeremy Murphy) appeared in the New York Times, 19 August 2007.

  190 “cautious, very cautious, optimism”: Senator McCain’s assessment and Senator Graham’s assertion about “We’re doing now what we should have done three years ago” were offered at the Combined Press Information Center, Baghdad, 1 April 2007.

  191 “He rolled over on the supplier”: Maj. Allen’s comment is in his interview in the Fort Leavenworth’s Operational Leadership series.

  191 “They feel as long as the Americans are there”: Sgt. Maj. Clemens’s comment is in his interview with the Operational Leadership series.