Truth, Knowledge, or Just Plain Bull: How to tell the difference
Page 42
Chicken Little, 23
choice-inclusive definitions, 91
Churchill, Winston, 171
CIA. See Central Intelligence Agency
Cicero (Marcus Tullius Cicero), 176n2
circular reasoning. See tautology
p. 350 clear thinking, 10, 18, 21-22
Clinton, Bill, 69, 100, 252, 322
Clinton, DeWitt, 267
CMS Energy Corporation, 21
codependent variables, 130
cold fusion, 254
College of the Mainland, 244
color prejudice. See prejudice
come-on in a fraud, 220, 224, 225, 236
committee decisions, 65-66
iron boats and British admiralty as example, 66, 67-68
common cause, 270-71, 281
common sense, 252-54
complete thought, 38
complex problems
black-and-white thinking, 54
juvenile delinquency as example, 56
multiple solutions, 58
need for evidence, 55-56
terrorism, 15-16
composition, fallacy of. See fallacy
compromise, 57-58
See also fallacy, of the mean
Comte, Auguste, 26
conceit, 161, 163
conclusion, 72, 75, 77, 249-50, 297, 301
confidence games. See fraud and deception
conflict of interest, 111-12
Enron Corporation as example, 115
ImClone as example, 110-14
conformity. See herd instinct
connotation, 101, 102
cons. See fraud and deception
consoling messages, 48
Constitution, 320
content analysis. See analysis
context, out of. See partial selection of evidence
context, shifted, 295, 313
contingent events, 68
continuum, fallacy of the. See fallacy
contradictions
contradictory evidence, 275-76
negative existential assertions, 97
self-contradictions, 174
truth of two contradictions, 112, 174, 175
contrary-to-fact reasoning. See reasoning
converse of the statement, 302
correct definitions, 83
Costello, Lou, 295
counterevidence, 67, 265-67, 282, 300, 318
in Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, 289-90
covert meanings. See definitions
Crucible, The (Miller), 134
Cuban missile crisis, 213
cups and balls. See shell game
curiosity, 53, 246
customs. See herd instinct
cutoff points, 150
cyanide, 303-304
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W
D
Darkness at Noon (Koestler), 317
Darwin, Charles, 40, 181
Daudet, Alphonse, 199
dead snake trick, 224-25
deceptions. See fraud and deception
Declaration of Independence, 146, 198, 320
Declaration of Sentiments, 256-57
deductive logic
cows and thinking example, 36-38
empty fuel tank example, 34-35
investment strategies example, 44-46
Parkinson’s disease example, 35-36
defective premise, 143
defensive statements, 113
p. 351 definitions, 83-127
abortion, alternate definitions of, 86, 90
alcohol, alternate definitions of, 84-85
in Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, 293-94, 309, 316
broadcast definitions, 110-12, 172, 260, 281
Enron Corporation as example, 115
war on drugs as example, 168
choice-inclusive definitions, 91
and conclusions reached, 92
covert meanings, 102-105, 110, 121, 125
Adobe Systems Inc. as example, 123
and authority figures, 116
Enron Corporation as example, 117-19
flag words, 106-108
Global Crossing Ltd. as example, 119-21
Golden Rule as example, 103-104
hedge words, 122-23
ImClone as example, 110-14
and inside information, 105-106
democracy, alternate definitions of, 92-94
divisional definitions, 86-87, 88, 93-94
genus definitions, 85-86
Gettysburg Address (Lincoln) as example, 94
is, alternative definitions and uses, 95, 98-100
lupus, alternate definitions, 89
medical and scientific definitions, 88-92
overt meanings, 102, 125
Golden Rule as example, 103
tomato, alternate definitions of, 90-91
vague, 172, 260, 281, 287
war on drugs as example, 165
See also language; words
déjà vu. See mental mechanisms
DeLay, Tom, 258-59
deliberate deception. See duplicitous behavior
delusions, 178, 179-81
denial, 12
of the obvious, 320
of the possible, 119
denotation, 100-101, 102
depersonalization. See mental mechanisms
Descartes, René, 161-62
dichotomization. See black-and-white thinking
Dickens, Charles, 172
dictionary, use of, 101-102
Dillon, Douglas, 212
disclosure of conflict of interest, 111-12, 114
Discovering Psychology (TV series), 218n1
Disney World, 181
displacement. See mental mechanisms
dissenting opinions, 60
distinctions without difference, 261-62
distributed syllogism, 78
diversionary thinking, 240, 282, 312
in Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, 293
war on drugs as example, 166
division, fallacy of. See fallacy
divisional definitions. See definitions
Do. See Nelson, Bonnie Lu
p. 352 Dodgson, Charles Ludwidge. See Carroll, Lewis
dogma, 54
Dombey and Son (Dickens), 172
domino effect logic, 49
in Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, 291-92
false analogies, 145-46
double standards, 201
double talk, 281
doublethink, 174
Dow Jones Industrial Average, 234
Dreamweaver, 122-23
Drexel Burnham Lambert, 174
Drug Policy Alliance, 169
drugstore.com, inc., 62
Duckworth, Robinson, 292
Dulles, Allen, 212
dumbness and mass media, 20-21
duplicitous behavior, 110, 120
Enron Corporation as example, 115, 117-19
ImClone as example, 117
duress, 266
Dynergy, Inc., 21, 231
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W
E
easy solutions, 58
EDS Corporation, 221
egocentric views, 286
ego protection, 180-85
theme parks as example, 180-81
See also rationalization
Einstein, Albert, 30, 199
Eisenhower, Dwight D., 50-51, 125
elimination, reductive, 292-93
elliptic reasoning, 291
Emerson, Ralph Waldo, 294
emotions
appeals to, 254-56, 280
emotional truth, 179-80
impact on thinking, 178, 237, 291
empty consolation, irrelevancy, 259
endorsements as proof in advertising, 73-74
Engel, King, 315
Enron Corporation, 10, 17, 21, 33-34, 110, 114-15, 117-19, 232
and John Mendelsohn, 112, 117
partial applica
tion of ethics, 185
and self-interest, 193, 204-205
entailment and use of word is, 100
∈ (epsilon), 98, 99
Erbitux, 113
erroneous conclusion. See conclusion
erroneous evidence. See evidence
ethical principles, partial selection, 184
book review as example, 185-86
cheating on income tax as example, 184
Ethics (Spinoza), 14-15
Euclid, 53
euphemisms, 163
evidence, 54-55, 80, 110, 281, 309, 317
absence of, 296
adequate evidence, 268-80, 326
in Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, 291, 300
contradictory, 275-76
evaluating, 177-78
facts not in evidence, 155, 324
inadequate evidence
causal fallacies, 270-75, 282
common cause, 270-71
contradictory, 275-76
fallacies, 272-73, 273-75
impossible precision, 282
less the better/more the better, 272
post hoc, propter hoc, 271-72
size of sample, 276-77, 290
special pleading, 282
unrepresentative data, 277
p. 353 insufficient, 275, 276, 278-79, 282
internal, 321
irrelevant evidence, 251-68
AIDS statistics as example, 265
in Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, 286, 289
appeals to emotion, 254-56, 280
authority figures, 251-53, 280-81
college choice as example, 258-59
fallacies, 272-73, 281
ogling as example, 256
sex and passing grades as example, 255
smoking as example, 259-60
tax increases as example, 259
missing evidence, 270, 275-80, 282
misstating, 282
necessary and sufficient, 268-69
nonexistent, 267-68
omission of, 282
out-of-context, 279, 282, 314
breast implants as example, 279
overlooking, 287
partial selection of, 177-210, 237-47, 262-64, 287
breast implants as example, 279
Enron Corporation, 204-205
national debt as example, 209-10
partial application of ethics, 184
theme parks as example, 181-82
US Coast Guard Tidal Tables as example, 264
war on drugs as example, 168-69
See also prejudice
preponderant weight of, 270
reasonable, 177
relevant evidence, 250-51, 288, 326
counterevidence, 265-67
necessary, 268-69
evolution, theory of, 181
exaggeration, 174
exception
and legal definitions, 87
“proves the rule,” 76
used to disprove a generalization, 30-34, 65, 99, 141, 286-87
aviation example, 59-60
blue-eyed cats and deafness, 40-41
investment strategies example, 44-46
existential assertion use of word is, 95
extortion, 266
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (Mackay), 317
extrapolation, 29, 57-58
extreme assertions, 58
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W
F
facts not in evidence, 155
future facts, 289
war on drugs as example, 164
fake reasons, 254
fallacy, 129
affirming the consequent, 303-304
of the beard, 149
causal fallacies, 270-75, 282
of composition, 262-63, 281
of the continuum, 148-49, 281, 289
credit card debt as example, 150
Jews and Israel as example, 149
p. 354 more the better/less the better arguments, 151, 272, 281
quantifying a beard as example, 149-50
tyranny of numbers and size, 151
of division, 263, 281
false alternatives, 262
gambler’s, 272-73
of the mean, 263-64
US Coast Guard Tidal Tables as example, 264
of novelty, 281
psychological, 273-75
US Coast Guard collision regulations as example, 142
use of word is, 95
false analogies. See analogies
false beliefs, 178
false conclusions, 69, 120
false harmony, 181
false premises, 288
false reasoning, 45, 98
Vietnam War as example, 49-51
false testimony, 319
falsification, 34
fantasy and frustrations, 185
Fastow, Andrew, 115, 117
faulty reasoning. See reasoning
FBI. See Federal Bureau of Investigation
fear of being alone. See herd instinct
Federal Bureau of Investigation, 230
Federal Trade Commission, 238
flag words, 106-108, 110, 240-41
flattery as irrelevant evidence, 257
Fleeced! (Schulte), 234
Food and Drug Administration, 113, 114, 116
force used as an argument. See argumentum ad baculum
Franklin, Benjamin, 294
fraud and deception, 219-34, 235-36
badger game, 221, 226
bait-and-switch, 221
chain-letter scams, 227-28
confidence games, 16, 45
gaslighting hoax, 214, 234
hidden treasure scam, 223-24
lead-into-gold scam, 224
miracles as examples, 140
Murphy game, 221, 225-26
pedigreed dog scam, 219-20
Piltdown man hoax, 254
pump-and-dump swindle, 222, 229-30
salting mines as a scam, 224-25
shell game, 226-27
six parts of a fraud, 220-22
stock market fraud, 229-34
swindles after 9/11, 15-16
three-card monte, 221, 226-27
Freedom of Information Act, 158
Frontline (TV series), 279
Frost, Robert, 28
frustration of instincts and desires, 184-85
future fact, 289
fuzzy set, 150
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W
G
GAAP. See Generally Accepted Accounting Principles
Galileo Galilei, 17
gambler’s fallacy. See fallacy
Gardner, Martin, 304
Gaslight (movie), 234
gaslighting hoax. See fraud and deception
Gates, Bill, 44
generalization, 25-26, 26, 29, 44, 173
in Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, 300
p. 355 “exception proves the rule,” 76
exception proving it wrong, 30-34, 65, 99, 141, 286-87
aviation example, 59-60
blue-eyed cats and deafness, 40-41
investment strategies example, 44-46
proof of, 29-30
sweeping, 55
tentativeness of, 30-32
unwarranted, 264
general knowledge
reality based, 26-27
tentativeness of, 25
Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, 204
general relativity theory, 30
general truths. See truth
genus definitions, 85-86
Gettysburg Address (Lincoln), 94
Global Crossing Ltd., 21, 34, 63, 119-21, 233
Goebbels, Paul Joseph, 171
Goldstein Handbook, 166
Gore, Al, 151-52
Gould, Stephen Jay, 54
gravity, law of, 28-29, 30
Greenspan, Alan, 186
gregariousness. See herd instinct
Grimm, Brothers, 331
grins without cats, 304-306
groupthink, 211-18, 214, 252-54
Bay of Pigs as example, 212-13
Heaven’s Gate as example, 216-17
Jonestown massacre as example, 214-16
Grubman, Jack, 62-63
guilt and irrelevant evidence, 255-56
Gulf of Florida, 24n1
Gulf of Mexico, 10, 24n1
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W
H
habits, 191-92
Hale-Bopp comet, 217
half measures, 57-58
half-truths. See truth
hallucinations. See delusions
Hamlet (Shakespeare), 108-109, 244
Harding, Warren, 66
Harrad Experiment, The (Rimmer), 258
Harrison Narcotic Act of 1914, 165
Harvard University, Laboratory of Social Relations, 214
Hebb, D. O., 126
heckling, 207
hedge words, 122-23
herd instinct, 186-90, 192-94, 194-96, 208, 252-54
hedge funds as example, 186-87
Jesus and crucifixion as example, 194-96
hidden meanings. See covert meanings
hidden treasure scam. See fraud and deception
Hitler, Adolf, 99, 147, 171
hoaxes. See fraud and deception
Hoaxes and Scams (Sifakis), 234
Holbrook, Ray, 243-44
Homestore.com, Inc., 62
Hoover, J. Edgar, 152
Houston Chronicle, 113, 154, 243
Human Zoo, The (Morris), 153
humor as a diversion, 257-58, 282, 289
Humpty Dumpty, 309, 314
Hurley, Elizabeth, 185
Hussein, Saddam, 152
Hustler, 254
hustlers, 222
Huxley, T. H., 34
hypotheses, 32
hypothetical nature of inductive logic, 29
hypothetico-deductive method, 34
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W
I
p. 356 ICG Communications, 63
identity, principle of, 295
ignorance
and committee decisions, 66
wallowing in, 16
illusion of invulnerability, 212
ImClone, 34, 110-14, 116
implied commitments, 138-39
impossible, proofs of, 307
impossible precision, 278-79, 282
inadequate evidence. See evidence
incentive in a fraud, 220-21, 224, 225, 236
incomplete evidence. See partial selection of evidence
independent thinkers, 214
independent variables, 130
Individual Investor (magazine), 62
inductive logic, 28, 29, 35
cows and thinking example, 36-38
law of gravity as example, 28-29
Parkinson’s disease example, 35-36
Initial Public Offerings, 230
innuendo, 280
inside information, 105-106, 121
insincere exaggeration. See supererogation
instincts, frustration of, 184-85
insufficient evidence, 275, 276, 278-79, 282
intellectual detachment, 304
intelligent analysis, 115
interesting truths. See truth
International Society of Plastic Surgeons, 279