Icefall

by Hallowes, Guy

  David said, 'I have ten slides here that try to explain something I've been researching over past months.'

  'So, it's not you and Mum riding camels in India,' joked Evan.

  'Not this time,' David smiled. 'There is a discussion going on suggesting human activity has caused the world to heat up.'

  There were some uneasy glances around the room. David was not given to lecturing and he normally did not force his opinions on the family.

  Mark glanced at Tanya who imperceptibly shook her head as if to say, 'Let's hear what he has to say first.'

  'The first slide shows that average world temperatures have increased by just less than one degree centigrade since the early 1800s … '

  The sigh of relief at this insignificant amount came too soon. David continued with the rest of his slides, briefly showing the results of his research on climate change and his conclusion that the world was facing a catastrophe not seen since the advent of Noah's flood.

  Tanya listened intently, Holy fucking shit, she thought, we have drawn the same conclusions.

  David was finishing, 'Under this scenario, virtually every port in the world would be inundated and many of the oil refineries. The consequences would be that food distribution, among other things, would come to an immediate halt and I don't see how it could be restored to anything like its present state for years.'

  There was a stunned silence. Most of the family could not believe what their sensible, down-to-earth father had said.

  'I can't believe this,' said Mark, deliberately aggressive, 'especially from a sane person like you. Are you now about to tell us that you're going to join the ranks of the great unwashed and lie about in Martin Place smoking dope and chanting ridiculous slogans? Anyway, what can we possibly do about any of that? You are just winding us up.' Although he had listened to Tanya saying almost the same things a few days earlier, he still needed convincing of the veracity of the science. He sometimes used this particular technique in his business dealings to try and tease out the issues.

  'No, I'm not winding you up.' David glanced at Tanya, her half-smile appearing to signify approval. 'I thought that with all the brain power around this table we could at least discuss the evidence. What we do about it is another question.'

  'Isn't the jury out on this? Are we certain your conclusions are correct?' asked Mark.

  Tanya looked at him, frowned, and again shook her head.

  'The evidence is overwhelming,' said Joe quietly. 'If anything, what David has presented is understated.'

  'If food distribution is disrupted, people will starve,' said Evan uncertainly.

  'Yes,' said David. 'Just think of the situation here in Australia. The ports will be unusable, for years probably. There will be no fuel for our trucks, so while there may be some food in the fields, it won't be going anywhere. People will certainly try to get out of the main cities. Can you imagine what it will be like? There will be absolute gridlock and people will quickly run out of fuel and food. I can see people dying on the M4. The supermarkets will be looted within days. The communications systems will be more or less destroyed. The police will be caught up in this thing like everyone else.'

  'Okay,' Tanya had said nothing up to that point. 'Let us assume you are right and the Ross Ice Shelf will collapse into the sea. As Mark asked, what do you think we can or should do about it?'

  'Well we could all go on living like kings for another ten or twenty years and when it happens, if we are still doing what we are doing now, the most sensible solution would be for us all to commit suicide. I expect many people would take this option,' answered an unsmiling David.

  They all looked at him as if he was mad.

  Tanya continued, looking at David directly, 'You most certainly have not brought us all to this wonderful dinner to tell us that though, have you?' She looked at him shrewdly. 'You really do have another solution.'

  'Maybe,' said David, 'but if anyone has any other ideas I would be happy to hear them first.'

  There was silence.

  'I suppose there is no chance you are wrong, and all this is a lot of mumbo-jumbo. I have read that the world has cooled down and warmed up over thousands of years and this is happening again.' said Mark quietly, avoiding Tanya's glances.

  'During the past seventy or so years the human population has grown from just more than two billion to just under seven billion people. It is forecast to be about nine billion within another fifty years. I believe that to be an underestimate, bearing in mind the trends over recent years … '

  Joe interrupted, 'Without doubt, the increase in the world population has already had a major effect on global warming. The third world is determined to achieve first world living standards in as short a time as possible, so unless something drastic is done the trend to a warmer climate is likely to accelerate.'

  David looked thankfully at Joe for his support. He then dropped his bombshell, as he said quietly, 'The collapse of the Ross Ice Shelf will wipe out anything from half to three quarters of whatever world population exists at the time. There is no doubt it will be an apocalypse like nothing the earth has seen in recent times and it certainly appears that human activity will have caused the catastrophe.'

  There was a brief silence while the people around the table tried to gather their thoughts.

  'What about governments around the world, surely they should be addressing this issue?' asked Patricia.

  'The only government that is remotely capable of doing anything significant is the Chinese government. The democracies will not be able to generate the will to do enough. People have been brought up to expect continuing improvement in their living standards; they will not accept a situation that requires major sacrifices on their part, particularly when there is some dispute about the science behind climate change. If we rely on governments then we are headed for the suicide option,' David responded calmly.

  'You've obviously thought about this,' said Tanya. 'Please tell us what you think the solution might be.'

  'There is no solution as such,' said David. 'However, I have no intention of sitting on my hands and watching while the human race destroys itself. In thinking about it I have decided there is one basic objective. Would anyone like to tell me what they think that might be?'

  There was silence again and then Tanya said, glancing quickly around the table, 'Under this unlikely scenario, there is only one possible objective and that is survival, firstly of self, and then family, and after that one can start thinking of the wider community.'

  David looked at her admiringly, 'Precisely. My thoughts exactly. Does anyone have any ideas as to what we might do?'

  Another stunned silence. David was aware that Chloe was looking daggers at him as if he was personally responsible for trying to destroy her "perfect" life.

  David waited a few moments. Everyone was fully engaged, but they were waiting for him to speak. 'If we stay in Sydney, or any other major centre, we will be caught up in the disaster. We could go to one of the outback towns like Orange—' Chloe pulled a face. 'But those who escape Sydney will make for those towns, especially if they have not planned anything. I foresee considerable social disruption, even anarchy. Maybe all rural towns, like Orange, will have to limit the number of people they allow in. But food and fuel will be a problem for them as well.'

  No one spoke.

  'Okay,' said David, 'I really need help on this. One solution I think could work would be to develop a place somewhere, perhaps in the Blue Mountains that we could make totally self-sufficient. It would have to be defensible, almost inaccessible or could be made inaccessible once the Ross Ice Shelf collapses.' He had been speaking matter-of-factly, ticking the points off on his fingers. His calm demeanour belied his anxiety; he really needed to be able to convince this, his precious family, of the seriousness of the situation if they were collectively going to be able to do anything. He could see that he had everyone's full attention. Most were leaning forward waiting, now quite anxiously, for what he would say next
. Tanya alone was leaning back, giving nothing away.

  He ran through his mental list, 'We would have to produce all our own food, clothing, and electricity. We would have to be self-sufficient in water.'

  'What about phones and Internet?' asked Evan. He thought it was all complete nonsense, but he wanted to be a part of the conversation.

  'Phones and Internet would be as they are today, until of course the Ice Shelf collapses, after which, who knows, they would probably cease to function altogether.'

  'All the major businesses, such as banks and supermarkets, would disappear … for a time anyway,' added Joe, warming to the theme.

  David continued, 'Mining would cease, as would postal services and so on.' He hesitated, then continued, 'The rule of law would certainly collapse.' He looked at Jonathan, 'The military may survive and could therefore be the one cohesive force in the country.'

  'Help me out now. I have probably forgotten a few things. It would be helpful if everyone put their minds to this,' David continued on determinedly.

  'What I hear you saying is that we would find and develop a place deep in, say the Blue Mountains, which would have something like five hundred hectares of arable land, but would be protected by its location and would have limited access by road. The access would have to be able to be blocked once the Ice Shelf had collapsed, which would isolate the community established there, but it would also deny outsiders any access at all,' said Jonathan, carefully analysing the situation. He wasn't sure of the science yet, but was intrigued by the intellectual challenge.

  'Something like that,' responded David.

  'How many people do you envisage being part of this commune?' asked Evan. He wanted to dismiss the whole thing as rubbish, but he was very fond of both his parents so he was trying to humour his father.

  'I suppose two or three hundred eventually, but it would have to start off very small, maybe a dozen people. Sooner or later we would need our own medical facilities, teachers, and so on as, for a period after the disaster first strikes, I think we would be completely isolated until the country had settled down.'

  'You mean until large numbers of the population had died?' said Evan.

  'I'm afraid that would be the case. As Tanya has so eloquently put it, the objective is survival firstly of self and family. When that has been achieved, we can help the wider community. If we don't survive we will not be able to help anyone.'

  'It seems very selfish. Is there no way the whole community could be involved so that more people survive?' asked Patricia, always concerned with other people as much as herself.

  'No, that's a government job and none of the democracies are managing to convince anyone to make sufficient sacrifices … '

  Mark rudely interrupted, 'We've had many amusing discussions dealing with the ineptitude of governments and how they waste our money. I need to be convinced this isn't just a load of bull encouraging us to invest in some wild scheme in the bloody boonies while the rest of the world gets on with living their lives.' He glared at everyone, daring them to challenge him.

  'I believe if we do nothing then we will all end up as victims,' said David, almost as if he didn't hear Mark. 'There may be others who are thinking like us and other so-called communes around the country that survive; they could be the basis of a continuing civilisation.'

  'Will it be like Aboriginal tribes occupying parts of the country and clashing occasionally with each other over territory?' asked Mark, seeing his dream of leading the bank disappearing if this dire prediction came to pass.

  'Hopefully not. We do all speak the same language. Once the disaster is well and truly over it ought to be possible for the survivors to cooperate and gradually rebuild, having learned some of the lessons of the past.'

  The conversation continued into the night. Initially, everyone was anxious, but all settled down and applied themselves to the problem at hand.

  Tanya tapped Patricia on the arm as dawn broke, 'Come, let's get breakfast, while they continue to argue.'

  Watching Tanya while she drove home, Mark asked, 'Why didn't you want to discuss your own findings? Dad's are much the same as yours.'

  'Just being cautious. It's too soon. I don't know what I think yet and what we should do about it. I'd assumed your dad would be on the side of the deniers; how wrong I was. Do we really want to be a part of his mad scheme? Thank God I kept my mouth shut. All our options are still open. Your challenge would have exposed any doubts he may have had, so I don't think he has any.'

  'I didn't say it just to challenge his thinking, I'm having great difficulty in believing it all.' He glanced at Tanya, but she said nothing further.

  Chapter Five

  The Search

  Two weeks later, David had an unexpected call from Tanya. 'I'm coming to see you,' she said without any preliminaries, 'When would suit?'

  'Well, this afternoon would be fine, say three?'

  'Okay, three. Could you keep the rest of the afternoon free? There's a lot to discuss.'

  David was left guessing. It obviously has to do with Saturday night, he thought. She had given him no clue as to whether her reaction would be positive or negative. The other night she had participated in the discussions, but had been non-judgmental about the science and his solution. No other members of his family had brought it up since, except Chloe.

  Tanya was shown into David's office, having helped herself to a cup of tea. She was well acquainted with the place as David and his partners had engaged her to deal with several legal issues. Impeccably dressed in an expensive black pant suit, set off by a cheerful, brightly-coloured scarf, she pecked him on the cheek in a daughterly way as she sat down.

  At first they talked neutrally about the previous Saturday night.

  'A lovely evening,' she said generously. David just nodded. 'I have done some of my own research on global warming,' said Tanya, looking at David to see what his reaction might be.

  David looked at her uncertainly. Maybe she was here to give him the big thumbs down and say that nothing was going to interfere with her path to the top. He briefly thought of Mark's hostile remarks from that night.

  'I am having a great deal of difficulty in believing the world will collapse in the way you outlined the other night.'

  David looked at her again, wondering why she was questioning him. Why not Mark, or Joe and Patricia?

  'Let's go through the detail,' he said after a moment, 'I have it all here.' He took his laptop and they both moved to a round conference table in his office.

  It took two hours, much of the material already familiar to Tanya. What surprised both of them was the way they worked together and the sense of trust they were developing.

  'So there it is,' said David. 'It's undeniable. We have the New Zealand scientists, the British Antarctic survey, and now the Pentagon all saying much the same thing.'

  'The Pentagon? I missed that one.'

  'Their conclusions were on the Internet. For some reason there is no sign of the thirty-eight page document anymore. Unfortunately, I failed to make a copy of it. I believe the document was suppressed and I suspect, if asked, they would deny it ever existed.'

  'Mmm, the bloody Pentagon,' muttered Tanya disbelievingly. 'I still can't believe our world will be destroyed. It can't all just fucking disappear.'

  David was mildly surprised at his daughter-in-law's language, but it seemed to him she was gradually reaching the same conclusions.

  'You mentioned you had a plan to build something in the Blue Mountains, or somewhere. Can I see those plans? Mark and I have some resources … if we determine this to be credible and not just a load of bullshit.'

  'There is no big plan as yet. First and foremost we need to find a place that can be made self-sufficient. Chloe and I are going to spend every weekend from now on hunting for the ideal property, instead of playing golf.'

  'If you are comfortable doing that on your own, I will do some more thinking and talk to Mark.' Tanya looked speculatively at David. 'If you happ
en to find something that is hopeful, would you let me know?'

  David laughed. 'Of course.'

  'How much do you know about farming?' asked Tanya out of the blue.

  David laughed again. As always she seemed to be a step ahead of the pack. 'Not a huge amount. I thought we would just muddle along. Some things will work and some won't.'

  'I can help with research. There is a massive amount of information on the Internet, which will give the project some hope of starting off with things that might work instead of just taking a shot in the dark.'

  'Yes, of course that would be very useful.' David began to feel hopeful. 'I have tried looking for that sort of information, but I find the exercise rather tedious. I have also been wondering about the legal side of things … but I'm getting ahead of myself. We need to find this place first.'

  'By the way what does Chloe think about all this?' asked Tanya.

  He hesitated briefly, thinking, Honesty is the best way forward. He said, 'She will go along with it all. But she hopes the science somehow is wrong and that, without our doing anything, planet Earth will magically provide a solution. I also believe she thinks the project will be too big and difficult for us to go on with.' He glanced at Tanya uneasily. He wasn't used to talking about his feelings with anyone, even his much-admired daughter-in-law.

  'If the Ice Shelf collapses,' Tanya said thoughtfully, 'for a period the settlement will be like a separate country. It will be completely isolated and will need its own laws. The world will recover on a much smaller scale, and so will Australia and the survivors will need to be able to fit in.'

  David looked astonished, 'I really hadn't thought that far ahead, but you're right. Maybe during the period of isolation we'll have time to think about what sort of society we want to live in. The first step is finding this property, then we can make a plan.'