Athene's Prophecy (Gaius Claudius Scaevola Trilogy)

by Ian Miller

  "So with numerical superiority, you sit back and let this Greek wander around your country, sacking it?"

  "What I said does not preclude sending small squads into the more hilly coastland as scouts, to raid supplies, and be a general irritant to your opponent," Gaius offered.

  "Great strategy! Be a prick!" Timothy admonished, and before Gaius could respond, he continued, "Anyway, Darius heard that Alexander had advanced south, leaving part of his forces at Issus. Darius crossed the mountains and killed the small contingent of wounded he found at Issus, then on hearing that Alexander and Parmenio were commanding separate armies, he marched south. Alexander heard that Darius, with an army five times bigger, is marching towards him. Instead of recalling Parmenio and heading south to take shelter behind fortifications, Alexander marched rapidly to meet Darius. Comment?"

  "Blood-thirsty Greek!" Gaius shrugged.

  "And that's your assessment?"

  "Alexander's outnumbered five to one! Common sense says, get fortified."

  "Which is the difference between a great commander and an ordinary one. The ordinary commander follows common sense. The great commander recognizes the opponent's mistakes, and Alexander saw a heaven-sent opportunity to defeat Darius. And, young Gaius, to win a war, you have to remove the enemy's army from the field, not merely irritate him. Now, why was Alexander's strategic position so good?"

  "Presumably with the hills and sea Darius didn't have enough room to deploy his larger army," Gaius offered.

  "They met on opposite sides of the Pinarus River," Timothy continued. "There was not much flat land; the sea was on Darius' right and hills were on his left. Apart from near the beach, the river had a bank about a metre high. The river bottom was stony, but the river, apart from the odd hole, was about knee deep. Darius sent 20,000 infantry and 30,000 cavalry to act as a screen while he built up his line. He deployed his cavalry to his right, his Greek infantry in the centre, his Asiatic infantry behind and on either side of them, then himself, and even more further behind, more infantry. On the right, his cavalry was extremely deep, owing to the narrowness of the beach, and on his left, because of the hills, he defended with weaker troops, supported by archers. His attack plan was to deploy his cavalry on his right, to take advantage of the flatter terrain. Alexander took about a quarter of his cavalry with him to his right. Both infantries formed lines that readily covered all the flat land. Comment on the Persian deployment."

  "Alexander will probably attack Darius' left flank with cavalry."

  "Which I presume you knew?" Timothy remarked caustically.

  "Yes, but Darius could have worked that out," Gaius shrugged. "That was what he did at the Granicus, and this situation was very similar."

  "He doesn't have to repeat himself," Timothy chided.

  "No, but Alexander was probably the last commander to lead from the front. The critical point would be where Alexander was. See him go to the right, he will attack from the right. He should have had scouts to see where Alexander was."

  "So, Darius planned to attack with cavalry on Alexander's left, and he sent all his cavalry there. Grossly outnumbered, the Greeks still did not lose. Why?"

  "You're going to tell me the Greeks fought better," Gaius smiled.

  "Far from it," Timothy admonished him, then added with a smile, "Of course, they probably did. No, the problem was geometry. Parmenio could defend a line with depth, so Darius' cavalry, outnumbering the opposition over twelve to one now, could not use the numerical advantage. Comment!"

  "They couldn't use it straight away," Gaius replied. "Given time, they must have prevailed. So the trick, using this strategy, is not to lose the battle before you win it." He paused, then added, "In my view, Darius' tactics were somewhat ill-conceived here."

  "Go on?" Timothy encouraged.

  "The cavalry may be Darius' strongest asset, but they don't have enough room. I think at least half of them should be taken to the left, where at least they can get at the enemy."

  "Perhaps!" Timothy smiled. "Anyway, Alexander attacked Darius' left flank and after loosing a few volleys of arrows, Darius' archers panicked, running back through their own infantry, who in turn panicked and ran up into the hills. Comment?"

  "Darius should have placed his archers behind the infantry to protect them, and also sent some of his best heavy infantry over to the left, to give Alexander a surprise if he attacks on the basis of attacking where the worst troops are often placed."

  "So, the left has panicked, and turned and run. Now, how does Darius win?" Timothy asked.

  "Alexander pursues the Persians into the hills, and now there is a hole, which Darius sees."

  "And he sends Greek infantry into this hole. Why does he lose?"

  "He didn't commit enough troops, and nowhere near enough cavalry. Alexander's phalanxes more or less held, then Alexander brought up extra cavalry and attacked the left flank of Darius' troops and this attack quickly became a losing position. Having failed to punch a clean hole in the Greek line, his centre had to retreat or be caught in a pincer, and at this key moment, instead of finding a counter to Alexander, Darius fled and the battle was lost. Even worse, on the right his cavalry had made progress and now they had to retreat or be surrounded. Once they started to retreat, Parmenio cut them to pieces. What could have been a possible victory rapidly turned into a terrible defeat."

  "So what was Darius' biggest mistake?"

  "His strategy was to win by attrition, which was fine, but he had to ensure he didn't lose first. He should have kept his best infantry and all his cavalry that couldn't get at the enemy in reserve, to deal with what eventuated. If he had fired more cavalry into that hole in the Greek deployment, they might have got around the back and changed everything."

  "So, what was the decisive point?"

  "The moment Darius decided to run," Gaius said quietly. "You can't have lost a battle of attrition when you still heavily outnumber the opposition, and most of your losses were your worst troops."

  "Do you see anything else noteworthy?"

  "Darius should have attacked immediately, perhaps using the 50,000 troops he sent forward as a screen while some of his army was getting organized," Gaius replied. "Even this small part of his army would provide problems for Alexander. If they could have engaged Alexander's men and fought for an hour, Darius could deploy his main army wherever he could see the weakest point. If the strategy's to fight by attrition, he should send in a fifth of his army, and eventually roll them back and bring forward another fifth, and so on. Keep this up long enough and Alexander's men will be so tired he must lose."

  "Following Roman tactics," Timothy nodded.

  "They work!" Gaius pointed out. "Rome wins more than it loses."

  "Anything else?"

  "I can't think of much else," Gaius admitted.

  "The most important issue of all is the question of a battle plan. A good commander has to do more than just give orders and start something. Once troops are engaged in battle, there's not much more you can do with them, so you have to plan for as many possible outcomes as you can, and ensure that every unit knows what to do next. That, as an aside, is the basic advantage of your launching the attack, because then you control the initial situation.

  "Because the situation was very similar to that at the Granicus, if he anticipated Alexander attacking on his left, he could have asked those troops to retreat, and have troops and supporting cavalry ready to drive into the hole that develops. Such openings are quite transient, but if you are ready and drive home the advantage immediately, you can be sure the opponent has no plan for that contingency. The side that is executing a plan should defeat the side that is trying to work out what to do next.

  "Had Darius' cavalry got around and attacked the Macedonians from the rear, and if there were infantry to at least engage the flanking Greek infantry, victory usually follows, particularly against the phalanx. The weakness of the phalanx was that it was almost defenceless from the rear, because of the time it took
to turn those long spears and reorganize. Now, back to my initial question on strategy. Why was it Alexander's optimum strategy to advance and force battle?"

  "To take the initiative from Darius. To do what Darius did not expect?"

  "Partly correct," Timothy said, "but there's much more. The most important point to remember is that strategy must consider operational matters. Darius must have sea on his right flank, and Alexander would have hills on his. While the sea inhibits an attack on the right, why can't Darius outflank Alexander by a fast attack down the left?"

  Gaius thought for some time, then shrugged and said, "I don't know."

  "It's an operational matter regarding cavalry. The cavalryman held a shield in his left hand and used the back of the horse's neck to help guide any lance or spear until the last instant. With the point of the lance on the left of the horse, don't you want the target there?"

  "I suppose so," Gaius replied, a shade sheepishly.

  "And this addresses the question of why Alexander was so keen on advancing on Darius. He was always going to be outnumbered five to one, but here Darius had cancelled out his numerical advantage. Alexander could deploy his cavalry on land, while Darius' cavalry had to enter the sea to outflank on the right. Alexander could see that strategically Darius had brought his massive army to the place least suitable to deploy it properly. He had to fight eventually, so why not when things were most favourable?"

  "I guess so," Gaius admitted, "although . . ."

  "Although what?"

  "Darius could have deployed cavalry on his left. Much of his cavalry were effectively mounted archers, who could shoot arrows in either direction. With superior numbers, he could afford to deploy a few thousand mounted archers to the left, and still do everything else he intended."

  "So why didn't he?"

  "Perhaps he was too uninspired," was all Gaius could come up with.

  To his surprise, Timothy agreed. "Darius' appears to have had the attitude that his job was to turn up with superior forces, and he had done that. However, just because you've come out on the wrong side of the strategic moves there's no reason to lie down and die. When there, you must still employ the best tactics."

  Chapter 12

  The day seemed so pleasant. The sun was just the right temperature, there was a slight cooling breeze, and he had to discuss elements. Gaius pulled himself together. Romans did their duty. "I have thought about elements and I have a problem," he began. "The question is, is the theory able to explain everything after the fact, but predict nothing before? For example, you say everything depends on numbers, but there are infinite numbers."

  "I proposed that everything is based on numbers, on geometry, and symmetry. If you knew all the geometry, and if you correctly handle the symmetry issues, you know all about physics, all about matter, all about everything that matters. The entire universe, your entire being, is just a series of numbers and shapes, moulded by symmetry."

  "Some time ago," Gaius responded, "you said there were five shapes. Four elements and no connection. So, your fifth shape? It is not that I necessarily believe your theory, I might add, but I do have to know what it is to refute it."

  "Good! The four elements were really argued by Empedocles, the relation with the shapes was due to Plato. The fire is obviously the tetrahedron, its sharp points giving the burning sensation, the cube, with its solidity and rigidity is obviously the earth, water, being wet and slippery is the icosahedron, while air the octahedron. The fifth element is the most sublime of all, ether, so it must have the most complex geometry of the dodecahedron. Comment?"

  "It's a good escape clause for an argument that's going wrong," Gaius grinned.

  To his surprise, Timothy also seemed to smile. "Let us continue! As I said, there are seven metals and five planets. But we can allocate gold and silver to the sun and the moon, so there are five other metals, quicksilver for Mercury, copper for Venus, iron for Mars, tin for Jupiter, lead for the slow moving Saturn. Comment?"

  "The only red metal does not go to the red planet," Gaius offered.

  "The iron could be rusty!" Timothy countered.

  "It could," Gaius admitted, then he added with a grin, "I also have five fingers on this hand."

  "And what's the connection there?"

  "None, apart from noting that if one unrelated coincidence is possible, so are two, or three." He paused, and waited for the expected outburst.

  To his surprise, Timothy smiled. "That is a very good point," he said, "and it addresses logic. To be honest I think that business with the planets is just sheer nonsense."

  "Which gets me back to my original point," Gaius emphasized. "Your theory seems useless, and only explains what you already know. My challenge to you is to predict something you don't know!"

  "If I don't know it, how?" Timothy waved his hands. "How many Romans have had anything useful to say at all about physics? The reason is because the great Aristotle has explained nearly all of physics. There is nothing left for Romans to discover."

  "Or at least, so you Greeks think," Gaius muttered.

  "Wrong!" Timothy almost roared. "It is you Romans who think that, which is why you do not seek."

  Gaius was stunned. There was an element of truth in that. Much as he hated to admit it, if Romans ever thought about physics, they referred to Aristotle. He eventually nodded, and muttered, "I suppose that could be true."

  "And that is a Greek triumph that Rome can never take away!"

  Gaius stared at Timothy. There was no immediate answer to that, yet something stirred in Gaius' mind. This wretched Greek could not possibly be right. He was, after all, a Greek! Surely the Greeks had not discovered everything?

  * * *

  Timothy smiled inwardly as he saw the expressions cross Gaius' face. He had expected Gaius to explode further, and rant about the uselessness of Greek science. But he had not. Instead, Gaius was almost accepting the challenge. If he read this young man correctly, eventually when he had to give up, he would concede defeat graciously, and give Timothy his freedom. And the way this was going, he would give up fairly soon.

  That might even present a problem, since Gaius was intent on following Tiberius' orders, but there was a way out. Tiberius had written asking whether he, Timothy, needed any assistance. What he needed was a substitute teacher when Gaius finally cracked. He would reply that Gaius needed someone else to better teach Gaius about military strategy. That would give him his freedom, and Gaius what he really wanted to learn about all along. So, in the meantime, these physics were providing a value he had never appreciated: a way to freedom.

  * * *

  "Well? Have you refuted our geometry yet?" Timothy challenged.

  "I accept geometry," Gaius replied, "because you can prove the conclusions. However, you can't prove your elements and I can refute one of your arguments." He paused, then added a quieter, "Maybe."

  "Continue!" Timothy smiled at the late addition.

  "You put fire into earth and get metal? But just not any earth. If you want to get mercury, you must put fire into the red cinnabar. If you want to get tin, you must put fire into cassiterite. I'll believe it your theory when you can turn earth I give you into gold."

  "You can't do that," Timothy said, "because . . ."

  "Because the theory's wrong! I give you the earth and as much air or water as you like. So, go make gold."

  "Just because I don't know how do something doesn't make the underlying theory wrong!"

  "It doesn't make it right either," Gaius replied. "It merely makes it useless."

  "And therein is another typical Roman approach," Timothy said.

  "The view is also Greek. The great Protagoras," Gaius smiled as he overly emphasized the word "great", "said that the quest for absolute truth merely leads to contradictions. Religions, philosophies, they're merely useful conventions and what all knowledge is good for lies in its ability to bring success to human effort."

  "So where did you learn about Sophism?" a perplexed Timothy ask
ed. This was a turn he had not expected.

  "From your library," Gaius admitted. "I had to have some ammunition."

  "Excellent!" Timothy enthused. He had to be encouraging, if for no other reason to return to physics and away from philosophy, which might lead to endless debate before he could get his freedom. "Anything else?"

  "Yes," Gaius suddenly remembered. "You said that nature abhors a void, hence the universe is full of air?"

  "I did!" Timothy smiled.

  "Then if, as I argued previously, the medium supplies the contrary to motion, and if, as seems likely, the Moon has eternal motion, then the Moon cannot be in air. Accordingly it must move in a void, and, as the great Aristarchus showed," and again he emphasized the word 'great', "no, proved by geometry, the Sun is far further away than the Moon, therefore most of the Universe is void."

  "I was wondering whether you would bring this up. The logic is impeccable, and given the premise, the answer follow. The only question is, is the premise correct."

  "I assure you," Gaius smiled, "stones fall toward the centre more slowly in water than in air. The water must be supplying a greater contrary."

  "Not necessarily! Remember Archimedes! The stone is lighter in water, therefore the force towards the centre is less, and it will accelerate more slowly."

  "I hadn't thought of that," a rueful Gaius admitted, after a moment's thought.

  "So, you admit you're wrong?"

  "I suppose," Gaius muttered.

  "Then you shouldn't!" Timothy stared at him. This was not the way Gaius must give up. Even worse, he must not see the obvious problem after having had his concession accepted, because when he retracted the concession, he might also retract the offer of freedom. "You must have more confidence. What sort of a commander gives in the first time the enemy does something he hasn't expected?"

  "A bad one."

  "Exactly. You are now partly diverted by an irrelevancy. Yes, the stone is lighter in water but is that the issue? It may be a factor, but not the prime factor? A general might blame a shortage of cavalry for failure, but the main reason for failure might be that the general was just plain incompetent, and his incompetence might have included the fact he did not realize early enough that he was deficient in cavalry. Go away and think on this."