The Leaves in Winter

by M. C. Miller

  Frankly, we don’t have the civility nor instincts for it.

  To drive home the point, consider this…

  If all of human history is represented by one year, then

  – In January – the first ape appeared;

  – In October – the first ape-man began walking upright;

  – On 28th of December – modern humans arrive;

  – On 31st of December – members of that single tribe of humans leave Africa;

  – By January 1st – we’ve populated the entire globe.

  The U.N. estimates our numbers will reach 9.2 billion by 2050 if we maintain our current trajectory. I ask you – how do we satisfy the twin aspirations of improved material life and ecological sustainability for 9.2 billion people?

  To put it another way, let’s relate energy usage with standard of living.

  The total planetary energy consumption of humans per year right now is 13 trillion watts or 13 terawatts. If you’d like a standard of living that allots only 3 kilowatts per person, a 6-terawatt world would allow for 2 billion people, about the number of people alive in 1930. For a higher standard of living, how about a world with 1.5 billion people using 4.5 terawatts of energy. In the year 1900 there were 1.5 billion people on the planet.

  Maybe we should halt population at 14 billion and convince everyone to be satisfied with a per capita energy use of 7.5 kilowatts. By the way, 7.5 kilowatts is about the average consumption in most rich nations. By comparison, 7.5 kilowatts is only two-thirds of average consumption in the United States. But I digress. A world like that would need 105 terawatts of power, eight times what the world uses today. Clearly, a recipe for ecological collapse.

  The fact is, one billion people are too poor, hungry, or diseased to develop themselves. Every year, ten million people die simply because they’re too poor to stay alive. Some people look to foreign aid or revolutions in technology to save us. But the track record there is dismal.

  A few years back, The World Bank estimated that flight capital out of sub-Saharan Africa for one year totaled $95 billion. If you’re not familiar with the term flight capital, it’s the amount of money siphoned off from foreign aid by corruption.

  It’s estimated that over the past fifty years, 2.3 trillion dollars has been given out around the world in foreign aid. Divide that among the 3 billion people in the developing world over the past sixty years, it amounts to 13 dollars per person per year.

  In the same period, $17 trillion were spent on the U.S. military.

  There are three hundred million sleeping sites in Africa needing protection from malaria. Anti-malaria bed nets cost one dollar per year. By quick calculation, $1.5 billion would pay for bed nets for all of Africa for five years.

  Meanwhile, the U.S. Pentagon spends $1.7 billion per day.

  Worldwide, nearly 34 million people now live with HIV/AIDS. The medicine to keep the disease in check costs 40 cents per day per person or about $14 million a day for all 34 million. That’s $5 billion a year for everyone infected around the world.

  Meanwhile, in the United States, $3 million is being spent on pornography every second of every minute. That’s $13 billion a year. Worldwide, $100 billion a year is spent on porn.

  Don’t get me wrong; I’m not picking on the United States by any means. There are plenty of other examples from other countries. For purposes in this regard, the United States is simply the gold standard for comparison. Each year in the United States…

  $1 billion is spent for breast augmentation.

  $25 billion is invested in videogames.

  $17 million is spent on Viagra for auto workers at General Motors.

  Pharmaceutical company Pfizer markets Slentrol, a successful dog-obesity drug that costs $2 a day. Eli Lilly & Company sells Reconcile for ‘canine separation anxiety.’ Another company has sold 240,000 pairs of Neuticles, a patented testicular implant for animals who’ve been neutered. The fake testicles sell for $1000 a pair and promise to restore a pet’s natural look and self-esteem. It’s just one part of the $41 billion Americans spend on their pets each year – that alone is more than the gross domestic product of 130 countries.

  We humans have our priorities. Too bad they’re at odds with reality.

  In the last half of the 20th century, advances in agriculture increased grain production by over 250%. This was heralded as a great thing. The only problem was, as a result, world population grew by four billion since then. Worst of all, much of this agricultural revolution had to be accomplished with fossil fuels. Natural gas to produce fertilizers, oil to produce pesticides, irrigation powered by hydrocarbons.

  As economies of the world have grown more interdependent, fertility rates in the world’s poorest areas have skyrocketed. In the poorest regions of Africa and the Middle East, populations are doubling every generation. There is no world stability when such a demographic bulge incites despair and violence or adds to poverty, unemployment, and mass migrations.

  Our century is the time when it all changes. We can either allow the perfect storm to hit us or make the hard choices now. The problems of growing populations, falling energy sources and food shortages will converge by 2030. Food reserves are already at a fifty-year low. And yet, the world will need 50% more energy, food and water by 2030. By 2050, the world will need 70% more food to feed an extra 2.3 billion people. This is not my alarmist rhetoric. This was reported by the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization, the FAO.

  And so, the time for half-measures and token efficiencies is gone. Compact fluorescent light bulbs will not save the planet. Don’t get me wrong. I’m not against conservation measures. Of course there must be smart electric plugs in homes with strict usage governors. I’m all for computerized trip monitors on cars with high fines for inefficient travel. Things like that must be the norm, but those are just the beginning of what I like to call the New World Harmony. But none of it will be possible until humans are back in accord and proportional balance with nature.

  My grandson came to me the other day and asked me what I was working on. I explained The Anthropocene Dilemma to him this way. We’re living in a time in Earth’s history when human activity for the first time is having a major impact on the whole planet. We’re using up the Earth, the oceans; we’re changing the weather and making it hard for animals to live. There are so many of us. We’ve gotten so good at what we do that now we’ve become a bad thing for the Earth.

  We must realize – hurting Mother Earth is suicide.

  All considered, I can only come to one conclusion. Humanity needs an intervention of epic proportions if we are going to survive. For the sake of generations unborn, we are somehow going to have to devise a way to conduct an intervention on ourselves. No one else can do it. It will be the hardest thing we’ve ever done. Will it be worth it?

  Consider this.

  The Jurassic Period lasted fifty million years. And yet, the dinosaurs are gone. Maybe in the distant, evolved future, some intelligent lizard-insect hybrid will look back upon The Anthropocene Period with bewildered curiosity. How could the bygone human species attain so much so fast – but have it all end after only fifty thousand years? How could they be called intelligent and yet miss so many blatant signs of their own demise?

  They must have been infected with narcissistic mass hysteria. Somehow their very own intelligence had become a mental disorder. They believed themselves too clever to be governed by natural laws, cause and effect, or even basic common sense. Of course, they didn’t realize this. How could they? According to them, their place within the circle of life was preeminent and assured. They could mate and procreate to their hearts’ content. To be human meant one was entitled – in so many ways.

  I thank the Department of Sociology for its kind invitation to speak to you this evening. I ask all of you to consider the lifeboat we’ve all fallen into. We now face a terrible storm in the middle of an unforgiving sea. What will be do? Will we drift into oblivion – or seize ethics and practical values
to guide us?

  At such a pivotal time, true words can be harsh. Necessary actions might seem severe. But without them and our resolve to see them through, none of us will reach the distant shore.”

  Eugene Mass stood at attention. His stature and sudden silence punctuated his words. With solemn intensity he searched the faces in the audience one last time. Fervently, he soaked in their reaction. Only when he was satisfied with the study of their faces did he nod to signal the end of his lecture.

  The audience, comprised mostly of students, responded with a standing ovation. A commotion of side conversations erupted to bolster the impact of the applause. Media members jockeyed to take still pictures or find the next best setup position for their live-action cameras. Reporters wrestled with bodyguards in an attempt to get a word of immediate reaction from Eugene for their microphones.

  Leah Mass sighed and smiled at her husband. As she stood in place before her seat, Eugene stepped forward and took her by the hand. He led her into the center of attention with him and put his arm around her in solidarity. Only then did he manage a smile. He received the affection of the audience with expected grace and humility.

  Eugene stepped towards the exit while shaking the hands of university deans positioned closest to him. Pleasant but assertive, one reporter managed to poke a microphone over a professor’s shoulder. He yelled above the hubbub.

  “Mr. Mass…that was very dramatic…you defined the problem, but how do you answer critics who say you offer no real answers?”

  Eugene stepped between Leah and the media assault but the protective move placed him square before the microphone. Mass couldn’t help a condescending smile as he made his way past.

  “You had time for one question. It’s a shame you wasted it belaboring the obvious.”

  Husband and wife clung together as they aimed their way down a narrowing gauntlet for the door. For security reasons, guards hustled both of them out of the hall in the direction of a waiting limo. They were handed their coats which they hurriedly put on as they hit the crisp air. Outside, a dusting of snow blanketed everything. A twilight sky brooded grey above them as they dashed for the car.

  Flanking bodyguards shielded them. Dozens of photoflashes sparkled from behind the police lines. Then an arcing brilliance attracted everyone’s attention skyward. A Molotov cocktail landed in the street in front of the limo and erupted in flame. A second later, another firebomb was thrown from the roof of a building across Broad Street. It landed in the street on the far side of the car.

  Guards reacted quickly by shoving Leah and Eugene into the limo’s backseat. Panic and chaos exploded as spectators and police ran every which way. The limo driver revved the car in reverse and gyrated the vehicle back to the next corner. On the way, a pedestrian was clipped by the rear fender and left injured in the street.

  Eugene and Leah were alone in the backseat. The driver and bodyguard controlled the escape in the front seat on the other side of soundproof privacy glass. Within a minute, the limo was on the road towards London with a police escort in front and behind. Leah slumped away from the window, doubled over.

  Eugene reacted to her position. “Are you all right?”

  Leah nodded but said nothing.

  “What is it?”

  Straightening up, Leah squeezed Eugene’s hand. “I’m just a little tired.”

  “You can rest on the plane.”

  Leah smiled weakly. “You know I don’t rest on planes.”

  “At least the worst is over. The treatment’s done.”

  Leah pulled away from him. She knew he was speaking of GenLET but after the speech she had just heard, his comment seemed out of place. The worst is over – how comforting lies could be, even when she knew in her heart what they were.

  Nothing more was said until London city limits when Mass’ cell phone vibrated once again in Leah’s purse. She plucked it out and handed it to Mass.

  “Here – this thing was going off all during the speech.”

  Eugene answered it curtly and turned his attention to the oncoming city lights.

  “I told you not to call me on my private line.”

  The man was insistent. “I thought you’d want to know right away.”

  “Know what?”

  “The laptop was used again.”

  Mass tensed and leaned forward. “For what?”

  “The same thing. Another download.”

  “Shit!” Mass pumped his fist against the window. “What is wrong with those people? Can’t they secure their network? Where are we now? Any chance we can get an MD5 Hash? We need to know if that memo got out?”

  “No way. It happened so fast; no chance for a digital fingerprint.”

  “Damn!”

  “What do you want me to do?”

  Mass held a steely gaze out the window. For the longest while, only his labored breaths could be heard in the phone. When he finally spoke, it was guttural, determined but fatalistic. “Find out from Oliver how soon he can be ready. We need to accelerate the schedule.”

  Mass pressed disconnect and threw the phone on the seat between him and his wife. Leah held her breath.

  “Was that Javier?”

  Mass nodded.

  Leah turned away. She watched outside as the city rolled by.

  The New World Harmony edged closer. Necessity was not always kind.

  Her eyes filled with tears.

  Chapter 21

  Curtis Labon’s Estate

  Quebec Province, Canada

  “So. What’s the mystery?” Heinrich pushed away his empty breakfast plate.

  Curtis Labon excused the service staff by motioning for privacy in the atrium. As the doors closed, he reached for tea. “I’d rather wait until everyone’s arrived.”

  Hasuru Tamasu studied Heinrich’s reaction. “It would only complicate things to start a discussion now. The whole Group should participate.”

  Heinrich settled to one side. He managed to smile. Toothpick in hand, his mouth widened as he dug deeper. “You two have already talked about it, haven’t you? Whatever it is.” The German was not so much perceptive as he was familiar with the longstanding friendship between the other men.

  “What of it?” Feeling empowered at home, Curtis saw no reason to be coy.

  “Nothing…” Heinrich bit down on the toothpick then let it dangle from his mouth. “…except you could be using this time to convince me.”

  “Whatever for?”

  “You didn’t call this meeting so abruptly just to go over regular business.”

  Hasuru tried to make light of the rising situation. “I didn’t know there was such a thing as regular business anymore.”

  “Let’s see…” started Heinrich. “For whatever you’re planning, you’ll need five votes for a majority. Without my vote, I predict you’ll only be able to muster four. The delay in some people getting here is already sending a message, don’t you think? I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of them don’t even show up.”

  Curtis paused. Heinrich was right. Any new proposal would be a hard sell to The Group, even with new facts on his side. With the advent of delayed fertility, most Group members had become risk adverse. Even at the best of times, the radical proposal he had in mind would not sit well among the Group. But it couldn’t be helped. He could act alone but Curtis knew that Group cohesion going forward would be irreparably harmed by unilateral action by any one member. A consensus was not needed to move forward with the plan – but forward as a Group.

  Heinrich eased forward. It was as if he had read Curtis’ mind. “I don’t see why we go through the formality of voting anyway. Times have changed. We’ll all do what we have to do regardless. You’ve proven that.”

  “If you had any problems with my actions before, this is the first I’ve heard of it.” Curtis’ attempt at nonchalance went unnoticed.

  “You have a way of getting what you want – despite advice to the contrary.”

  “Such as?”

  “
People are starting to notice the drop in teenage pregnancies. Delayed fertility will soon take center stage. The World Health Organization, among others, are quite interested. Already, some at the fringe are becoming alarmed.”

  “As we expected.”

  “Yes, that’s why we agreed years ago, when this time came, we’d have independent research ready. We need to give people another reason for what’s happening, something that doesn’t lead them to 1st Protocol – and to us. Hasuru and I, through our agents, have managed to get our research out on time. You have not.”

  “Releasing simultaneous studies would be suspicious. If I remember correctly, our plan was to stagger publication.”

  “Not beyond the point when it’s needed. The truth is – you insisted on having your part done by a government agency in the States, despite the advice of The Group to keep such things with private institutions.

  “I already had biodefense contacts. It wasn’t a problem.”

  “You mean you didn’t expect it to be a problem. My sources tell me you’ve had several run-ins with your boy in Kansas – Oliver Ross. You’re not seeing eye-to-eye on the scheduling of several animal studies. You think he’s dragging his feet.”

  “It’s a procedural matter, nothing more.”

  “Government procedures, to be precise. The kind of procedures you wouldn’t be bogged down with if you’d followed Group advice and kept the study private.”