Book of Odds
Page 16
SOURCE: DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, KH Flint, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2011,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 61(4), June 8, 2012.
The odds a high school student will be physically active at least 60 minutes a day on 5 or more days a week: 1 in 2.0
The odds a male high school student is obese: 1 in 6.2
The odds a female high school student is obese: 1 in 10.2
SOURCE: DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, KH Flint, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2011,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 61(4), June 8, 2012.
In the course of a month, the odds a high school student will fast for at least 24 hours to lose weight or keep from gaining weight: 1 in 13.9 for boys and 1 in 5.7 for girls.
SOURCE: DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, KH Flint, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2011,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 61(4), June 8, 2012.
Gym Class
The odds a high school student has a physical education class every day: 1 in 3.2; at least once a week: 1 in 1.9.
SOURCE: DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, KH Flint, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2011,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 61(4), June 8, 2012.
Teens and Cosmetic Surgery
During 2009, 209,553 cosmetic procedures were performed on US teenagers. Teens accounted for 1 in 57.5 cosmetic procedures performed that year. Some of the most common procedures were laser hair removal, skin treatments including microdermabrasion and laser skin resurfacing, laser treatment of leg veins, and Botox injections. The odds a cosmetic procedure performed on someone 13–19 will require surgery are 1 in 2.8.
According to the American Society of Plastic Surgeons, by far the most common surgery (34,994) performed in 2009 on people under the age of 18 was rhinoplasty, a reshaping of the nose, and the second most common was breast reduction (12,908). Third most common was breast augmentation (8,199) and fourth was ear surgery (7,909).
SOURCE: National Clearinghouse of Plastic Surgery Statistics, American Society of Plastic Surgeons, 2010 Report of the 2009 Statistics.
Teen Suicide
Suicide is the third leading cause of death among kids and young adults between the ages of 10 and 24, according to the CDC. In a given year, 1 in 14,599 teenagers between the ages of 15 and 19 will take his or her own life. Teenage boys are more than four times more likely (1 in 9,062) to take their own lives than teenage girls (1 in 44,220).
But for every teenager who commits suicide, thousands of others have suicidal thoughts, and many go so far as to make unsuccessful attempts. The odds a high school student will seriously consider attempting suicide in a year are 1 in 6.3; the odds a high school student will make a suicide plan in a year are 1 in 7.8; the odds a student will attempt suicide in a year are 1 in 12.8; and the odds a high school student will attempt suicide and require treatment by a doctor or nurse are 1 in 41.7.
Although boys are far more likely to succeed in ending their own lives, more girls make the attempt. 1 in 10.2 female high school students try to kill themselves each year compared to 1 in 17.3 of their male peers.
SOURCES: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2007 United States, Suicide Injury Deaths and Rates per 100,000 WISQARS Fatal Injuries: Mortality Reports, http://webappa.cdc.gov/. DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, KH Flint, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2011,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 61(4), June 8, 2012.
The odds a high school student will feel sad or hopeless for two or more weeks in a year: 1 in 3.5
SOURCE: DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, KH Flint, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2011,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 61(4), June 8, 2012.
“Limo Comes at Six”
A 2010 Liberty Mutual/Students Against Drunk Driving survey found that 90% of eleventh and twelfth graders believed their friends were more likely to drive drunk on prom night. In a given month the odds are 1 in 8.8 that a junior in high school will drive drunk—and those odds jump to 1 in 6.5 for seniors.
SOURCES: Community Anti-Drug Coalitions of America, “Study Shows 90 Percent of Teens Admit Stronger Likelihood of Drinking and Driving on Prom Night,” April 21, 2010, http://www.cadca.org/resources/detail/study-shows-90-percent-teens-admit-stronger-likelihood-drinking-and-driving-prom-night. DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, J Ross, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2009,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 59(SS-5), June 4, 2010.
Hard Heads
The odds a female high school student rarely or never wears a seat belt as a passenger: 1 in 15.9
The odds a male high school student rarely or never wears a seat belt as a passenger: 1 in 11.2
The odds a high school student who rides a bike rarely or never wears a helmet: 1 in 1.1
The odds a high school student who rides a motorcycle rarely or never wears a helmet: 1 in 3.1
SOURCES: DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, KH Flint, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2011,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 61(4), June 8, 2012. DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, J Ross, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2009,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 59(SS-5), June 4, 2010.
Pimples?
Everybody Gets Them
The odds a person 15–24 will have acne vulgaris: 1 in 1.2
SOURCE: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, “Management of Acne: Summary,” Evidence Report/Technology Assessment 17 (AHRQ Publication No. 01-E018), March 2001, http://www.ahrq.gov/clinic/epcsums/acnesum.htm.
Teens and Sex:
Boys Get Head Start But Girls Catch Up Fast
Ever Had Sex?
The odds a high school student has ever had sexual intercourse:
Ninth Graders: 1 in 2.6 teenage boys vs. 1 in 3.6 teenage girls
Tenth Graders: 1 in 2.2 teenage boys vs. 1 in 2.3 teenage girls
Eleventh Graders: 1 in 1.8 teenage boys vs. 1 in 1.9 teenage girls
Twelfth Graders: 1 in 1.6 teenage boys vs. 1 in 1.6 teenage girls
SOURCE: DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, KH Flint, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2011,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 61(4), June 8, 2012.
GENDER WARS
The odds a male high school student first had sexual intercourse before age 13 are 1 in 11.1 vs. 1 in 29.4 for a female high school student.
SOURCE: DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, KH Flint, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2011,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 61(4), June 8, 2012.
Never
Been Kissed
The odds a teenage girl 13–17 has never been kissed: 1 in 2.5
The odds a teenage boy 13–17 has never been kissed: 1 in 2.9
SOURCE: “The Sex Life of American Teens: A Battle of Restraint vs. Impulse,” press release, ABC News Poll: Teens and Sex, May 18, 2006.
Going Steady
The odds a teenage boy has a girlfriend or boyfriend:
Age 13–14 1 in 2.9
Age 15–17 1 in 2.5
The odds a teenage girl has a boyfriend or girlfriend:
Age 13–14 1 in 3.5
Age 15–17 1 in 2.3
SOURCE: “The Sex Life of American Teens: A Battle of Restraint vs. Impulse,” press release, ABC News Poll: Teens and Sex, May 18, 2006.
Sexting Odds by Gender
The odds a teenager 13–19 has ever sent or posted:
SOURCE: The National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned Pregnancy and Cosmogirl.com, “Sex and Tech: Results from a Survey of Teens and Young Adults,” http://www.thenationalcampaign.org/sextech.
Number of Sex Partners
i
n a Year for Teenagers by Gender, 15–19
The odds a teenage girl 15–19 has never had sex with a male are 1 in 1.7.
The odds a teenage girl 15–19 will have sex with 1 male in a year are 1 in 4.
The odds a teenage girl 15–19 will have sex with 2–3 males in a year are 1 in 9.7.
The odds a teenage girl 15–19 will have sex with 4 or more males in a year are 1 in 30.3.
The odds a teenage boy 15–19 has never had sex with a female are 1 in 1.8.
The odds a teenage boy 15–19 will have sex with 1 female in a year are 1 in 4.8.
The odds a teenage boy 15–19 will have sex with 2–3 females in a year are 1 in 8.3.
The odds a teenage boy 15–19 will have sex with 4 or more females in a year are 1 in 24.4.
SOURCE: JC Abma, GM Martinez, CE Copen, “Teenagers in the United States: Sexual Activity, Contraceptive Use, and Childbearing, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(30), June 2010.
The odds a teenage girl 13–19 has ever sent sexually suggestive content to a boyfriend: 1 in 1.4
The odds a teenage boy 13–19 has ever sent sexually suggestive content to a girlfriend: 1 in 1.5
SOURCE: The National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned Pregnancy and Cosmogirl.com, “Sex and Tech: Results from a Survey of Teens and Young Adults,” http://www.thenationalcampaign.org/sextech.
GENDER WARS
The odds a teenage girl 15–19 who has had sex lost her virginity to a male she was going steady with: 1 in 1.4 vs. 1 in 1.8 for a teenage boy 15–19
The odds a teenage girl 15–19 who has had sex lost her virginity to someone she just met or was just friends with: 1 in 7.3 vs. 1 in 4 for a teenage boy age 15–19.
SOURCE: JC Abma, GM Martinez, CE Copen, “Teenagers in the United States: Sexual Activity, Contraceptive Use, and Childbearing, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(30), June 2010.
Teens and STDs
Years ago, before anyone without a medical degree had heard of chlamydia, sexually active teens worried about contracting syphilis or gonorrhea. The odds today that a boy 15–19 will be diagnosed with primary or secondary syphilis in a year are 1 in 18,870—and 1 in 33,330 for a girl.
But syphilis is the only STD for which teenage girls face a lower risk than teenage boys. Gonorrhea is far more prevalent, and teenage girls are at a far greater risk. The odds a teenage girl 15–19 will be diagnosed with gonorrhea in a year are 1 in 157 compared to 1 in 359 for teenage boys of the same age. They are also much more likely than teenage boys to have genital herpes: 1 in 43.5 teenage girls 14–19 have it vs. 1 in 111 teenage boys in the same age group. Chlamydia has surged in recent years, with 1.2 million cases reported overall in 2008. The odds of a teenage boy being diagnosed with chlamydia in a year are 1 in 143. The odds for a girl? 1 in 30.5.
The STD most likely to be diagnosed in teenage girls is human papilloma virus (HPV). The odds a teenage girl will be diagnosed with high-risk HPV are 1 in 3.8 and with low-risk HPV, 1 in 4.5.
SOURCES: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Sexually Transmitted Disease Surveillance, 2008, Atlanta, GA: US Department of Health and Human Services, November 2009. SM Berman, BJ Kottiri, K Lee, et. al., “Trends in Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 and Type 2 Seroprevalence in the United States,” JAMA 296(8), August 23, 2006. S Hariri, ER Unger, M Sternberg, EF Dunne, D Swan, S Patel, et al., “Prevalence of Genital HPV Among Females in the United States, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2003–2006,” Journal of Infectious Diseases, 204(4), 2011: 566–573.
ODDS COUPLE
Too Many Extracurriculars
The odds a teenage boy 15–19 has had sex with 4 or more females: 1 in 6.4
The odds an adult has less than a high school diploma: 1 in 6.4
SOURCES: JC Abma, GM Martinez, CE Copen, “Teenagers in the United States: Sexual Activity, Contraceptive Use, and Childbearing, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(30), June 2010. Book of Odds estimate based on US Census Bureau, “Table S1501, Educational Attainment by Age,” American Community Survey, 2007.
GENDER WARS
The odds a female high school student has been tested for HIV: 1 in 6.8 vs. 1 in 8.9 for a male.
SOURCE: DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, KH Flint, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2011,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 61(4), June 8, 2012.
Contraception Use
Among Sexually Experienced Girls, Age 15–19:
Used a condom: 1 in 1.1
Withdrawal: 1 in 1.7
Birth control pills: 1 in 1.8
Calendar rhythm method: 1 in 6
Emergency contraception: 1 in 9.4
SOURCE: JC Abma, GM Martinez, CE Copen, “Teenagers in the United States: Sexual Activity, Contraceptive Use, and Childbearing, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(30), June 2010.
Sexual Maturity
In the 1960s, girls typically entered puberty between ages 10 and 11. Now that age has fallen to between 10 and 10½.
A girl’s first menstrual period usually follows the initial signs of puberty by around 2 years. The median age of first menstruation, 12.3 years, has not changed significantly, but the upper range at which it occurs has dropped.
The odds a woman 40–44 reports having her first menstrual period when she was:
15 or older 1 in 8.2
15–19 1 in 16.4
SOURCES: A Chandra, GM Martinez, WD Mosher, JC Abma, J Jones, “Fertility, Family Planning, and Reproductive Health of U.S. Women: Data from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(25), 2005. B Kantrowitz, “Coming-of-Age Stories,” Newsweek, January 28, 2009.
What Are the Odds My Daughter Will Get
Pregnant on Prom Night?
The odds a female twelfth grade student has ever had sexual intercourse: 1 in 1.6
Assuming half succumb, the “speculative” odds a teenage girl will have sex on prom night: 1 in 3.1
The odds she will not use protection: 1 in 4
The odds she will get pregnant using no protection: 1 in 132
The odds she will use a condom: 1 in 2.9
The odds she will get pregnant using a condom: 1 in 3,322
The odds she’s on the pill or other hormonal contraception only: 1 in 5
The odds she will get pregnant on the pill: 1 in 2,814
The odds she’s on the pill and will use a condom: 1 in 4.8
The odds she will get pregnant using both the pill and a condom: 1 in 1,019,800
A nervous parent’s speculative odds of a teenage girl getting pregnant when having sex on prom night: 1 in 506
SOURCES: DK Eaton, L Kann, S Kinchen, S Shanklin, KH Flint, J Hawkins, et al., “Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance—United States, 2011,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 61(4), June 8, 2012. JC Abma, GM Martinez, CE Copen, “Teenagers in the United States: Sexual Activity, Contraceptive Use, and Childbearing, National Survey of Family Growth 2006–2008,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(30), June 2010. WD Mosher, J Jones, “Use of Contraception in the United States: 1982–2008,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(29), August 2010. K Kost, S Henshaw, L Carlin, U.S. Teenage Pregnancies, Births and Abortions: National and State Trends and Trends by Race and Ethnicity, New York: Guttmacher Institute, January 2010. Book of Odds estimates based on all of the above sources.
The odds a male 15–22 has had a conversation with his parents about preventing pregnancy: 1 in 1.8
SOURCE: S Jayson, “Truth About Sex,” USA Today, January 26, 2010.
ODDS COUPLE
Population Density
The odds a teenage girl 15–19 at risk of unintended pregnancy does not use any form of contraception: 1 in 5.4
These are the same odds that a person lives in the Northeast.
SOURCES: WD Mosher, J Jones, “Use of C
ontraception in the United States: 1982–2008,” Vital and Health Statistics 23(29), August 2010. US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php.
The odds a sexually experienced girl 15–19 will become pregnant in a year: 1 in 6.5
SOURCE: K Kost, S Henshaw, L Carlin, U.S. Teenage Pregnancies, Births and Abortions: National and State Trends and Trends by Race and Ethnicity, New York: Guttmacher Institute, January 2010.
Teen Births by State
The odds by state a teenage girl 15–19 will give birth in a year:
SOURCE: JA Martin, BE Hamilton, SJ Ventura, MJK Osterman, EC Wilson, TJ Mathews, “Births: Final Data for 2010,” National Vital Statistics Report 60(1), August 2012.
Teen Attitudes on Pregnancy
The odds a teenage girl 15–17 will report she would be very upset if she got pregnant now are 1 in 1.6.
The odds a teenage girl 18–19 will report she would be very upset if she got pregnant now are 1 in 1.9.
The odds a teenage girl 15–17 will report she would be a little upset if she got pregnant now are 1 in 3.4.
The odds a teenage girl 18–19 will report she would be a little upset if she got pregnant now are 1 in 3.6.
The odds a teenage girl 15–17 will report she would be a little pleased if she got pregnant now are 1 in 15.4.
The odds a teenage girl 18–19 will report she would be a little pleased if she got pregnant now are 1 in 8.4.
The odds a teenage girl 15–17 will report she would be very pleased if she got pregnant now are 1 in 35.7.
The odds a teenage girl 18–19 will report she would be very pleased if she got pregnant now are 1 in 13.3.