Threat Vector

by Tom Clancy

  “Why don’t those smart people work for us?”

  “A key reason is, the average hacker we need on our side in order to even the playing field is a twenty-something born in Russia or China or India. He’s gone to the right schools, has the language and the math background.”

  Ryan understood the problem before Bloom said it. “But there is no way in hell the foreign kid can obtain a Top Secret, Sensitive Compartmented Information full-scope polygraph clearance.”

  Bloom said, “No way in hell, sir.

  “And another reason is that America’s strong suit has never been dealing with things that have not happened yet. Cyberwar has been a distant vague concept, a fantasy . . . until this morning.”

  Ryan said, “When the power goes out, the water turns to sludge, and when the fuel stops flowing . . . America is going to expect us to fix this.”

  Ryan continued. “We have been focusing on low-impact, high-probability events. China taking the South China Sea and Taiwan is seen as a high-impact, low-probability event. Cyberwar against America is seen as a high-impact, low-probability event. We have not had our eyes on these areas as we should have in the past few years. Now both of these things are happening at once.

  “General Bloom, what would be the quickest, best way we can help you right now?”

  The Air Force general thought it over for a second. He said, “A kinetic response to the command-and-control centers in China that are effecting this cyberattack.”

  “A kinetic response?”

  “Yes, Mr. President.”

  “Combat their cyberwar with a shooting war?”

  General Bloom did not blink. “War is war, Mr. President. People will die from this here in America. Plane crashes, traffic accidents, little old ladies freezing to death in a home without electricity. You can, and I believe you should, look at what happened in Russellville, Arkansas, as a nuclear attack on the United States of America. Just because they did not use an ICBM and just because the warhead did not detonate this time, it doesn’t mean they did not try, they will not try again, and they won’t succeed the next time. The Chinese have changed the method of attack, but they did not change the type of ordnance.”

  Ryan thought for a moment. “Scott?”

  Secretary of State Adler responded, “Yes, Mr. President.”

  “Bloom is right, we are a hair’s breadth away from a full-on shooting war with the Chinese. I want you to help me come up with every last diplomatic card we can use to avoid this.”

  “Yes, sir.” Adler knew the stakes; there existed no greater use of diplomacy than preventing war. “We start with the United Nations. Without positive attribution of the Chinese in the cyberattack, I think we pull out all the stops in going after their encroachment into the SCS and their attacks on the ROC.”

  “Agreed. It’s not much, but it has to be done.”

  “Yes, sir. Then I go to Beijing, meet with the foreign minister, give him a direct message from you.”

  “All right.”

  “I can deliver your ‘stick’ with no problem, but I’d like to have a carrot to offer as well.”

  “Sure. I’m not wavering on Taiwan or open access to the SCS, but we can be flexible with some of our military movements in the region. Maybe we promise we won’t renew a base over there somewhere that they don’t like. I don’t want to do that, but I sure as shit don’t want this to blow up. We’ll work this out with Bob before you go.”

  Burgess did not look pleased, but he nodded at Adler.

  Scott said, “Thank you, sir. I’ll put together a list of other diplomatic moves we can make to pressure or cajole the Chinese. They seem intractable, but we have to try.”

  “That’s right,” agreed Ryan. Then he looked to SecDef Bob Burgess. “Bob, we can’t depend on the Chinese being reasonable to our threats of the stick or our offers of the carrot. I want you back in here in seventy-two hours with your plan to combat the cyberattack with attacks in China. Get with all the war fighters, General Bloom at Cyber Command, and the NSA, and make it happen.”

  “Yes, Mr. President.” Ryan knew Burgess could not even communicate effectively with his staff at the moment, but there wasn’t much Ryan could do to help him.

  Ryan added, “With no surface ships in the area, submarines will be crucial.”

  Burgess said, “Still, we are going to need pilots flying over the Chinese mainland.”

  “That is going to be suicide,” Ryan said, rubbing his temples under his bifocals. “Shit.” After a long hesitation he added, “I’m not going to approve a target list. You don’t need civilian leadership micromanaging your campaign. But Bob, I am personally putting this on your shoulders. Only the most critical targets for our flyboys, things that subs can’t hit. I do not want one American life risked for any target that is not absolutely required to fulfill the overall mission objective.”

  “I understand completely, sir.”

  “Thanks. I don’t wish your job on anybody right now.”

  “I feel the same about you, sir.”

  Ryan waved his hand. “Okay, enough of our pity party. We might be sending people to fight and die, but we aren’t the ones who are on the knife’s edge.”

  “That’s a fair point.”

  Jack thought about how powerless he had become, the president of a country under threat of being demolished by its dependence on computer networks.

  Suddenly he had another idea. “Scott?”

  Secretary of State Scott Adler looked up from his notepad. “Sir?”

  “What does your communication situation look like? Can you talk with your embassy in Beijing?”

  “Not via secure comms, sir. But I can pick up a phone and make a long-distance call. Who knows? At this point, it might have to be collect.”

  There were a few stressed chuckles in the room.

  Mary Pat Foley said, “Scott, I can guarantee it will be a party line.”

  That garnered some more stressed laughs.

  The President continued: “Make a call to Ambassador Li, have him arrange another phone call between Wei and me. Do it as soon as possible. I’m sure just your making the call will pass the message directly to the Chicoms.”

  SIXTY-SIX

  President Wei Zhen Lin received word from his Ministry of State Security that the American ambassador to China, Kenneth Li, would be requesting an urgent phone conversation between Wei and President Jack Ryan. Li had not yet made the request; clearly the MSS was listening in to his phone conversations, and Wei was glad for this, because it bought him a little time.

  He had spent the day in his office, having his people bring him reports about military actions in the South China Sea and the Strait of Taiwan, and then about the situation in America with the cyberattacks.

  To say Wei was furious did not properly express his mood. Wei saw very well what Chairman Su was doing, and he also knew that Su would know good and well that he would be angry.

  Clearly Su just did not care.

  The phone on Wei’s desk beeped, and he touched the speaker. “General Secretary, Chairman Su is on the phone for you.”

  “On the phone? He was supposed to come to my office.”

  “I’m sorry, sir. He said that he could not get away.”

  Wei stifled his rage. “Very well. Connect him.”

  Su Ke Qiang said, “Good morning, tongzhi. I apologize that I could not be in Beijing at the moment. I was called to Baoding today and will remain here until our Standing Committee meeting on Thursday morning.” Baoding was a city to the southwest of Beijing, as well as home of a large PLA base.

  Wei did not acknowledge the lack of respect that he felt Su was expressing. Instead he said, “This has been a most difficult day.”

  “How so? I see nothing but success. The Americans are moving a carrie
r from the western Indian Ocean to the eastern Indian Ocean. This is their response to our sinking of the Taiwanese warship? You do see, don’t you, that they are afraid?” Su chuckled. “They are on a war footing in the Indian Ocean.” Su chuckled at what he saw as a feeble, empty attempt by the Americans to flex their muscles.

  “Why was the ship sunk?”

  “One thing leads to another in any military conflict.”

  “I am not a soldier, not a sailor. Tell me what you mean by that.”

  “I will boil down the events quite simply. We have been exercising our muscularity in the air over the strait as a precursor to naval actions there. This has led to dozens of air-to-air encounters with the Taiwanese and the Americans. We ordered the American aircraft carrier to move back, and they did so, but now we have found out they snuck American pilots, like spies, onto Taiwan. To retaliate for this, our submarines have laid some mines, and in so doing there was a conflict with a Taiwanese vessel. We destroyed the vessel. That is where we stand at present.”

  Wei realized Su would show no contrition for the reckless escalation of events.

  Wei said, “But there is more to the story, is there not? I am learning of the cyberattacks in the United States from my advisers who are watching American television. Do you still maintain these will not be attributed to the People’s Republic of China?”

  “I do.”

  “How can you possibly say that? On the day you make threats of reprisals to the Americans, suddenly a very powerful computer attack damages their military and civilian infrastructure. Obviously, this was China’s doing.”

  “Obvious? Yes, I will grant you that. But attributable? No. There is no proof.”

  Wei raised his voice: “Do you think Jack Ryan wants to take us before a magistrate?”

  Su chuckled again. “No, Wei. He wants to see China in ashes. But he won’t do anything but put a few pilots on Taiwan and sail his vulnerable ships out of range of our ballistic missiles. This is exactly what we wanted. Ryan will show a little bluster, but he will see his battle is lost before it has begun.”

  “Why was it necessary to take such drastic steps? Why not attack the military networks only?”

  “Wei, I’ve told you before, my experts inform me that in the very near future, inside of two years, perhaps, the United States will have a much more defendable electronic communications architecture. We have to act now, to escalate quickly. The Americans refer to it as ‘shock and awe.’ It is the only way forward.”

  “But what will the Americans do to us?”

  Su had been expecting the question. “If we control the Taiwan Strait, as well as most of the SCS, the American response will be limited.”

  “Limited?”

  “Of course. Their carriers will be nowhere near any military activity. They know that our coastal anti-ship batteries can destroy them.”

  “So they will not attack?”

  “They will do what they can to protect Taiwan, but they understand that is a fool’s errand. We can launch fifteen hundred missiles a day from our coast, to say nothing of our Air Force and Navy. They will back down.”

  “We misjudged Ryan before. Are you misjudging him now?”

  “I told you, comrade. I fully expect an American response.” He paused. “And I fully expect it to fail.

  “We will not allow China to lose power on any front during the next five years. We will overcome our current crises and we will grow, but we will not do it without some near-term sacrifice. It would be naive to imagine that President Ryan, a warmonger of the highest order, will simply respond with some sort of diplomatic or economic reprisals. Some continued armed response is inevitable.”

  “What sort of armed response?”

  “The PLA has been working on the answer to this question for some time. Our think tanks in Washington are actively involved in the evaluation of the Ryan administration, looking for signals in policy that can help discern just how far they will go.”

  “Conclusions?”

  “We have nothing to worry about.”

  Wei then said, “Tell me about the Ryan Doctrine.”

  Su paused. “The Ryan Doctrine is not relevant.”

  “What do you know of it, Su?”

  Su coughed into the phone, hesitating for a moment before responding: “President Ryan has said publicly, and he has proven this by his deeds, that he holds the leadership of his enemies responsible for their actions. Personally responsible. Ryan is a monster. He has ordered the decapitation of governments. The assassination of leaders.” Su laughed into the phone. “It that the reason behind your reluctance? Are you personally afraid of what Jack Ryan will do to you?”

  “Of course not.”

  “You have nothing to worry about, comrade.”

  “I am not worried.”

  “Then why did you bring it up?”

  The line was silent for a moment as both men raged internally. Eventually Wei spoke; his words were clipped and tight as he tried to keep from shouting. “I am an economist, and I see that we are doing more damage to our relationships than the business environment can sustain. What you are doing, the speed and intensity with which you are pushing the aggression, will force war, and it will destroy our economy.”

  “And backing down now won’t?” Su shouted at Wei, having no filter of charm with which to blunt the expression of his anger. “You have pushed us across a bridge and burned it down! There is no turning back now! We have to see this through!”

  “I have done that? I have?”

  “Of course. You sanctioned my operation, and you are afraid to sit quietly and wait for Ryan to run away.”

  Wei said, “President Ryan will not run from a fight.”

  Su said, “He will run, because if he does not, then he will witness a nuclear detonation in Taipei, and the threat of further strikes in Seoul, Tokyo, and Hawaii. Trust me, if it comes to it, America will have no choice but to back off.”

  “You are mad!”

  “You were mad to think that you could blow navies out of the water while offering free-trade agreements to offset the damage. You only see the world as an economist. I promise you, Wei, that the world is not about business. The world is about struggle and force.”

  Wei said nothing.

  “We will discuss this in person when I come on Thursday. But understand this: I will address the Standing Committee, and they will back me. You should stay aligned with me, Wei. Our good relationship has served you in the recent past, and you would do well to remember that.”

  The call ended, and President Wei took several minutes to compose himself. He sat silently in his office, his hands on the blotter of his desk. Finally he pushed the button on his phone that connected him to his secretary.

  “Yes, General Secretary?”

  “Connect me with the President of the United States.”

  SIXTY-SEVEN

  President Jack Ryan held the phone to his ear and listened to the translator quickly and effortlessly convert the Mandarin into English. The conversation had already been going for several minutes, and Jack had endured a lecture in economics and history from the Chinese president. Wei said, “You made Thailand and the Philippines ‘non-NATO major allies.’ That was very threatening. Moreover, the U.S. has worked tirelessly to expand intelligence and defensive contacts with India, and to bring them into the nuclear nonproliferation regime.

  “America is doing its best to make India a global power. Why on earth would it be in one global power’s interests to promote the emergence of another global power? I can answer that question, Mr. President. America wants India’s help in keeping China under threat at all times. How can we not feel endangered by this hostile act?”

  Wei waited quietly for a response to his question, but Jack Ryan would not be giving ground to Wei tonight. He wa
s on the phone to talk about the cyberattacks and the escalation of Chairman Su.

  He said, “Your nation’s attacks on our critical infrastructure are an act of war, Mr. President.”

  Wei replied, “The allegation by the Americans that China participated in any sort of a computer attack against them is groundless and exhibits yet another display of racism as your administration attempts to denigrate the good people of China.”

  “I hold you personally responsible for the lives of Americans that are lost due to damage to our transportation infrastructure, our communications systems, our nuclear power facilities.”

  “What nuclear power facilities?” Wei asked.

  “Do you not know what happened this afternoon in our state of Arkansas?”

  Wei listened to the translator. After a time he said, “My country is not responsible for any computer attacks against your country.”

  “You don’t know, do you? Your cybermilitia, acting in your name, President Wei Zhen Lin, forced an emergency shutdown of a nuclear reactor in the middle of the United States. If this attack had been successful, thousands of Americans would have died.”

  Wei hesitated before responding: “As I said before, China had nothing to do with this.”

  “I think you did, Mr. President, and at the end of the day, that is what matters.”

  Wei hesitated again, and then he changed the subject. “President Ryan. You do realize, don’t you, the leverage we have over you in the economic and commercial sectors?”

  “That is not important to me right now. There is nothing you can do to us economically that we will not recover from. America has many friends and great natural resources. You have neither.”

  “Perhaps not. But we have a strong economy and a strong military.”

  “Your actions are destroying the first! Don’t force me to destroy the second!”

  Wei had no response to this.

  “Recognize, Mr. President, that you are inexorably linked to Chairman Su’s war. My country will make no distinction whatsoever between the two of you.”

  Still nothing from Wei. Ryan had been involved in hundreds of translated conversations with state leaders in his years in the White House, and he had never known one to sit in stunned silence. Normally the two parties spoke prepared text or jockeyed for position in the conversation.