Kremlin Conspiracy

by Brian Freemantle

  The distance between them was far greater than the physical distance between London and Washington when he called a week before the special conference.

  ‘I’ve been chosen as part of the British delegaton,’ she said.

  ‘Good.’

  ‘Is that all, good?’

  Shit, he thought. ‘I’m very glad: really. Let’s not pick a fight.’

  ‘I’m not trying to pick a fight.’

  ‘Is Burnham part of it too?’

  ‘Of course,’ she said. ‘He’s chairman of the unit: he’d hardly be left behind, would he?’

  ‘He must be feeling very pleased with himself.’

  ‘Why?’

  ‘It looks as if he was right, doesn’t it?’ said Pike.

  There was a pause from her end of the line. Then she said, ‘I don’t believe he’s thinking of it in personal terms.’

  Of course he was, thought Pike. ‘It’ll be good to see you again,’ he said, trying to bridge the gap.

  ‘Really?’ The hope was obvious in the question.

  ‘Really,’ he said. ‘I’ve taken a suite in a hotel near the IMF.’

  There was another brief silence. ‘You want me to stay with you?’

  ‘Of course,’ he said.

  ‘That wouldn’t be very sensible, would it?’

  ‘Why not?’

  ‘I’m part of an official delegation.’

  ‘Wouldn’t Burnham like it?’

  ‘Stop it, Tom!’

  ‘Why shouldn’t you stay where you want to?’

  ‘Be realistic, darling! Please!’

  ‘I don’t give a damn about appearances.’

  ‘It wouldn’t be yours at risk, would it?’ Was she being hypocritical, after the last Washington visit: she’d been anxious enough to occupy someone’s bed then. Why was everything going sour like this? Tom’s fault or hers?

  ‘It’s going to be ridiculous, living in the same city and not being together,’ Pike said.

  ‘I didn’t say we wouldn’t be together. I said I’d have to appear at least to be living as part of the delegation.’

  ‘Where?’

  ‘The Jefferson again.’ When he didn’t respond she said, ‘We’ll spend a lot of time together. I promise.’

  ‘Sure,’ he said.

  ‘That sounds as if you’re not interested.’

  ‘You know that isn’t true.’

  ‘Do I?’

  ‘I said I didn’t want to fight.’

  ‘I said I didn’t want to, either.’

  ‘Think about staying with me?’ he persisted.

  ‘All right.’ It was easier than keeping up this brittle duel: she knew she wouldn’t.

  ‘It isn’t going to be an easy meeting.’

  Briefly she thought he was still talking about them but then, sadly, she understood. ‘We’re not sure of the extent of the problem yet; even if there is one,’ she said. ‘And if there is, there’ll be a resolve: there always is.’

  Pike was immediately attentive, imagining a lead to the special unit’s thinking. ‘What?’ he said.

  ‘That’s what the meeting is being called to decide,’ said Jane.

  The period for Lydia and Malik had been as nerve-wracking as it had been for Pike, six and a half thousand miles away. Although the IMF and the World Bank had publicly reacted as anticipated, it had always been a possibility that some bank would prematurely declare a default, spoiling everything. It was two months after the announcements before they began to relax.

  ‘It could still happen,’ warned Malik. He sat in his office with his chin cupped in his hands, gazing at her in admiration across the desk.

  ‘Unlikely now,’ she said.

  ‘It would still be a catastrophe for them,’ said Malik. ‘Looking forward to our getting married?’

  ‘It isn’t the catastrophe towards which we’ve been working,’ she reminded.

  ‘You haven’t answered my question.’

  ‘Of course I’m looking forward to it,’ she said. She wished it were true. Why was she dissatisfied?

  Henry Ambersom was waiting in the corridor and Pike’s immediate impression was of a nervousness he hadn’t recognized before in the World Bank chairman. Surely the telephone call didn’t mean the man still wanted to pursue the invitation to join him?

  ‘How are you Tom?’

  ‘Fine, thank you, sir.’

  ‘Enjoying Europe?’

  ‘Very much, thank you.’ Belatedly Pike said, ‘I was very sorry to hear about Janet.’

  ‘That’s what I wanted to talk to you about,’ said Ambersom.

  Pike looked at the older man curiously.

  ‘She’s very unwell, Tom. Very unwell indeed.’

  ‘I’m very sorry,’ Pike repeated, not knowing what else to say.

  ‘I’ve a favour to ask you.’

  ‘What?’

  ‘I think she’d appreciate a visit: no one goes to see her any more, only her mother and me.’

  Pike realized the cause of the man’s apparent nervousness: Ambersom seemed not just old but physically smaller, he thought. ‘I don’t have a lot of time,’ he said.

  ‘It would mean a great deal to me Tom. A great deal to Janet, too.’

  ‘I’ll try,’ said Pike.

  ‘That would be very kind of you,’ said Ambersom. ‘Very kind indeed.’

  Why, wondered Pike, was the man repetitious, like his father.

  Chapter 26

  Every government as well as every central bank was represented, which made accommodation difficult. For that reason the advisory groups were strictly limited but the conference chamber was still tightly packed, with insufficient room for the usual delineation between delegations. Pike, as part of the IMF, was practically opposite the British contingent. Jane and Burnham were side by side directly behind the chairman of the Bank of England and the British chancellor, close together because of the seating problem. He knew they couldn’t have sat any differently but Pike still felt a surge of irritation. Jane had attended a planning conference instead of seeing him as soon as she arrived, the previous night, and he’d been angered by that, too. There had been a brief encounter outside the chamber and she’d agreed to lunch, but Pike had imagined her embarrassed. She saw him looking across at her now and she blushed, smiling hesitantly: almost at once she was interrupted by Burnham and she looked away.

  Although it was a meeting of the Interim Committee in name only, it retained the committee’s operating procedure, so control was in the hands of the committee’s chairman, British chancellor Stephen Wilder. He was a pouch-eyed, mottle-faced man who affected bow-ties and an attitude of nothing-new weariness.

  ‘I’d like to welcome you here today for a meeting that I hope will prove premature and unnecessary,’ Wilder began, with attempted lightness. ‘If it is,’ he took up, ‘then I shall be delighted. The alternative would be very unsettling …’ He allowed a pause to elapse. ‘…. very unsettling indeed. For some months past, the international monetary system has operated in a manner better than ever before. It’s given everyone renewed confidence: proper confidence. Which is why this meeting is important. It would be a gross exaggeration to make a comparison between any discussion we might have here today and the Bretton Woods conference after the Second World War that attempted to create a global financial system. But maybe there are slight similarities. The aim then was lasting stability. The aim now is the same.’

  The conference had settled now, Pike realized. The adjustments had been made to the translation headsets and people had arranged themselves as comfortably as possible in such crowded conditions. An effort had been made to identify the groups by named placques. Australia and New Zealand were together with Japan alongside. The Far East continued with Hong Kong and Singapore and the European countries were grouped together, too. South Africa separated the American contingent, to his right, beyond the World Bank, grouped with Canada. Pike looked again towards the British delegation. Jane was still in conversation with Bur
nham.

  Wilder gustured towards the IMF group and said, ‘Can we have the most accurate assessment, please?’

  It had been completed by Pike the previous night, a few moments before his unsuccessful contact with Jane. His father needlessly took up the folder and said, ‘From the information available to us, it would seem that capital indebtedness overall is $600,000,000,000 …’

  Pike was looking around the room at the disclosure, intent upon the reaction from the assembled financiers. Almost unanimously it was one of consternation.

  ‘This is, of course,’ continued his father, ‘in addition to the loans which were outstanding prior to the changes within the Soviet Union and the Eastern bloc. That figure is $630,000,000,000….’

  He hesitated at movement from the British assembly: Pike saw Burnham leaning forward, head close to the chairman of the Bank of England. Wilder became aware of it as well and turned enquiringly to Sir Herbert Course. The Bank of England chairman responded by bending towards the microphone: ‘Our own analysis put the new loan debts higher than $600,000,000,000. Our figure is closer to $650,000,000,000.’

  Son of a bitch! thought Pike. He reached forward, thrusting the break-down list of figures in front of his father. The older man hesitated and then began reciting it. Around the vast room every delegation was bent forward, taking notes of the itemized figures. The exception was the British, who appeared only to be comparing against their own lists. ‘… which comes to $600,000,000,000,’ concluded the IMF managing director.

  Burnham offered a second list to his chairman. Course looked at it briefly, then turned back towards the crowded room. He said, ‘Our information indicates that to be incomplete: we’ve confirmed figures of four separate consortia, two involving our own Lloyds, National Westminster and Midland groups, which add $30,000,000,000. One of the other consortia is headed by Brazil: the fourth is spread throughout Asia, with the Japanese Mitsubishi heading the group.’

  Brazil was not represented at the conference. Attention was automatically focused upon the Japanese delegation. The British document was handed to them for brief comparison and then the Japanese finance minister, Ienari Tanaka, spoke sibilantly into his microphone. Pike adjusted his earphones in time to hear confirmation of the British assessment.

  He was being ridiculed, Pike accepted. The purpose of this conference was to challenge his original theory and he was now shown to have failed to assemble the very material it needed to make any sort of decision about the mistakes brought about by that theory. Burnham would have withheld the British figures, to prove himself superior. That was still no excuse for failing to include the Japanese and Brazilian loans. His father turned towards him and Pike gave a shrug of acceptance. The IMF managing director looked back to the room and said, tight-faced, ‘There would seem to have been a miscalculation: we accept the higher figure of $650,000,000,000.’

  The American financiers were grouped to their right. Pike was aware of the United States Treasury Secretary in mouth-to-ear conversation with Volger and Ambersom. He knew his father had detected Bell’s muttering, as well.

  ‘We’re considering total indebtedness of $1,289,000,000,000?’ demanded Wilder, determined upon clarity.

  ‘That would seem to be the total figure of old and new loans,’ agreed the IMF official. Pike saw that his father was white-faced and guessed at the anger. It was a justifiable reaction at being exposed to correction among such an exalted assembly, he decided.

  ‘Is there a breakdown of guaranteed export credits?’ asked Wilder.

  Pike’s father hesitated, looking beyond the chairman to the British back-up. ‘It would appear that only Poland, Romania and Argentina are at risk at the moment,’ he said. ‘The total of their guarantees, over the coming six months, is in the region of $110,000,000.’

  ‘If the guarantor governments of the West have to meet those commitments for failed payments, then that increases the possible difficulty to $1,280,110,000,000,’ said the pedantic Wilder.

  Again the IMF controller looked to the British before responding. The Bank of England chairman nodded agreement.

  ‘I think it is important to realize, however,’ continued Pike, gaining confidence, ‘that the export credits could go higher. Were there to be a default throughout the six Eastern bloc nations, then that $110,000,000 could go as high as $230,000,000. And it would, of course, be a recurring debt, in addition to both the capital sum and the interest on that sum.’

  ‘Any views?’ invited Wilder, generally.

  ‘There’s also the accumulative problem,’ said Sir Herbert Course. ‘Some of the lenders are also the borrowers. We’ve already itemized a commitment by Brazil, a country with debts of $89,000,000,000 in its own right. Mexican banks are also involved in three consortia, according to our evidence: Chile too.’

  ‘Providing the difficulties don’t escalate, that makes sound fiscal practice,’ pointed out Harry Ambersom, whose World Bank was heavily extended throughout South America. ‘The interest payments on their own lending can be set against their own loan premiums, giving them their export earnings to reduce the capital.’

  ‘Which brings us to the core of the problem,’ interrupted the American Treasury Secretary. Pike was conscious of his father stiffening as Bell began to speak.

  ‘For months now there’s been an impression of security,’ continued Bell. ‘Commodity prices and markets world-wide have strengthened: countries have been earning and in turn they have been paying …’ He nodded towards the chairman. ‘We’ve come nearer than ever before to reaching the sort of system that our chairman referred to earlier as being the ambition of the Bretton Woods conference.’ He paused again. ‘But I think it has been a false impression of security.’ Now Bell was looking accusingly at the IMF director and Pike, just behind his father, was conscious of other people realizing the direction of the Treasury Secretary’s attention. ‘Mistakes have been made,’ said Bell. ‘Maybe disastrous mistakes. The exposure is too great and too widespread. We know from their own indebtedness that Brazil and Mexico and Chile couldn’t withstand even the minimum period of a moratorium…. May I invite, through you, Mr Chairman, an indication of how other countries might be affected?’

  Wilder looked pointedly at the American, as if imagining that his own function was being usurped and then he said, generally again, ‘Would anyone like to comment?’

  ‘It is no secret that we would need assistance from the Bank for International Settlements,’ said Pierre Larousse, the French Finance Minister. ‘We’ve already intimated as much.’

  ‘Italy would also experience difficulty,’ said Luigi Cambino, its central bank chairman.

  ‘We don’t need a country by country analysis, to recognize that the extent of the loans creates the sort of nighmare we’ve all been fearing for almost forty years,’ said the Bank of England chairman.

  ‘But to which we are nearer than at any time during those last forty years,’ resumed Bell, still looking towards the IMF group. ‘Brought nearer because of an ostrich-like refusal to learn the lessons of the immediate past. Each country indicating difficulties now is a country which has shown financial recklessness before, a recklessness that we have fostered and of which we may well be the ultimate victims.’

  This conference might be secret at the moment, Pike realized, but Bell didn’t intend it to remain that way forever. In front of him he was aware of his father stirring, gesturing for the chairman’s attention. Wilder nodded and the IMF director stood facing Bell, confronting the attack physically.

  ‘Isn’t this conference being led off on the wildest, most defeatist tangent!’ he said. ‘There is nothing whatsoever to justify the sort of hyperbole and exaggeration we have heard in the last fifteen minutes. The rescheduling requests from Poland and Romania have been agreed and imposed not the slightest difficulty upon the liquidity available to my Fund.’ He nodded towards Ambersom. ‘The World Bank has covered the Argentinian shortage just as easily. The Soviet Union has shown the responsibi
lity for which they have been judged and assessed and continued to meet their obligations by the sale of gold of which we have every reason to believe they have adequate reserves …’ He stopped again, gulping from a water-glass, made more fluent than usual by his anger. ‘The global indebtedness is certainly a cosmic figure. So it is right and proper that we should have this conference and formulate proposals against a possible – and I repeat possible – difficulty hinted at by Poland, Romania and Argentina. It is quite wrong to conclude that those difficulties have already arisen and we are confronted by a financial Armageddon.’

  Wilder appeared at last to realize the personal antipathy between the two men and moved to intervene. ‘I think’, he said, ‘that it’s a convenient time for a luncheon adjournment.’

  * * *

  Pike tried to hurry from the room but couldn’t because of the congestion. His father caught up with him by the door, seizing his arm.

  ‘My office,’ he said.

  ‘I’ve got a meeting.’

  ‘Postpone it.’

  His father’s anger wasn’t only at the Treasury Secretary, Pike realized. Jane was already outside in the corridor, looking around. Pike moved her into a window alcove and said, ‘My father wants a conference.’

  ‘I can catch up with my own party,’ she said.

  ‘I’m sorry.’

  ‘Can’t be helped.’

  ‘Thought you might have been more disappointed.’

  ‘Don’t start all that again, Tom.’

  ‘What about tonight?’

  She pulled her bottom lip between her teeth, so that her crooked tooth showed. ‘I’ll try,’ she said.