Great Powers

by Thomas P. M. Barnett

  193. As Easterly notes, China once had all the same . . . efforts to shape events there. Easterly, White Man’s Burden, pp. 351-55.

  193. Deng, as Easterly describes him, was a natural “searcher” instead of a “planner.” On the difference, see Easterly, White Man’s Burden, pp. 3-7.

  193. As Deng’s famous maxim put it . . . the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.” Wang renders the same saying as “Black cat, white cat, all that matters is that it catches mice”; see China’s Ascendancy, p. 45.

  193. The simplest definition of good government . . . pothole fixed in front of your house. Easterly, White Man’s Burden, p. 173.

  194. So if we look at Jeffrey Sachs’s list . . . (e.g., property and contract laws). They are human capital, business capital, infrastructure, natural capital, and public institutional capital; see Sachs, End of Poverty, p. 244.

  194. Let the business capital (including the 40 percent . . . P2P programs like Kiva. The 40 percent estimate comes from Collier, Bottom Billion, p. 92. On the attractiveness of P2P models, see Easterly, White Man’s Burden, pp. 376-77.

  194. Easterly calls this phenomenon . . . but it’s a truism for any frontier environment. See Easterly, White Man’s Burden, pp. 81-82.

  194. This is the so-called bamboo network. See Easterly, White Man’s Burden, p. 83.

  195. Most Western businessmen . . . never known the premarket system. I got this idea from Fred Laurenzo, who sits on the board of Enterra Solutions LLC and has conducted business overseas, but particularly in China. I first used the concept in “The Chinese Are Our Friends: . . . Despite Everything You Hear from the Fearmongers at the Pentagon. Don’t Listen to Them. The Sino-American Partnership Will Define the Twenty-first Century,” Esquire, November 2005, found online at www.esquire. com/features/essay/ESQ0207CHINA.

  195. Economist George Ayittey makes similar arguments . . . clarity and objectivity.” George B. N. Ayittey, Africa Unchained: The Blueprint for Africa’s Future (New York: Palgrave MacMillan, 2005), pp. xix-xx.

  The Inescapable Realignment: Remapping Fake States

  196. Easterly’s research on artificial states . . . with squiggly natural borders. Easterly, White Man’s Burden, pp. 290-93.

  197. Collier says that fifty-eight countries . . . those recent globalizers. See Collier for the basic characteristics of the bottom billion, in Bottom Billion, pp. 3- 13 and 79-96. Collier does not identify his fifty-eight states. Of the bottom billion, Collier says 73 percent have recently suffered a civil war, 29 percent are resource-deprived, 30 percent are landlocked and resource-deprived and have bad neighbors, and 76 percent have suffered long periods of bad government.

  197. Only one percent of the Functioning Core’s . . . simply don’t become countries.” Collier, Bottom Billion, p. 57.

  197. As the former director of research for the World Bank puts it . . . they are falling apart.” Collier, Bottom Billion, p. x.

  197. As Easterly pointed out in his magnificent book . . . literacy, and clean water. Easterly, White Man’s Burden, pp. 292-93.

  198. According to Easterly’s research . . . some colonial master took a ruler to a map. See Alberto Alesina, William Easterly, and Janina Matuszeski, “Artificial States,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 12328, found online at www.nber.org/papers/w12328.

  199. If applied prophylactically . . . marines courageously proved in Sierra Leone in 1999. On this story, see “British Marines Leave Sierra Leone,” BBC News “On This Day,” June 15, 2000, found online at news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/june/15/ newsid_2512000/2512669.stm.

  The Better Normal: Racing to the Bottom of the Pyramid

  202. Prahalad’s description . . . fascinating on many levels. C. K. Prahalad, The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid: Eradicating Poverty Through Profits (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Wharton School Publishing, 2005).

  202. First, he alerts us to the growing reality . . . thanks to globalization’s advance. See Prahalad, Bottom of the Pyramid, pp. 3-12.

  202. Second, Prahalad reminds us that . . . couldn’t afford your standard large purchase. See Prahalad, Bottom of the Pyramid, pp. 65-66; the Singer example comes from the talk I attended several years back.

  202. How to get the product in front of “media-dark” . . . traveling salesman. See Prahalad, Bottom of the Pyramid, pp. 12-13.

  202. Third and most important to American grand strategy . . . democracy inside the Gap. See Prahalad, Bottom of the Pyramid, pp. 109-12.

  202. By tapping into this “latent market . . . by the state. See Prahalad, Bottom of the Pyramid, pp. 77-98; the quote comes from p. 5.

  203. The bottom of the pyramid . . . the essence of the economic frontier setting. Prahalad, Bottom of the Pyramid, p. 54.

  203. One example Prahalad cites in his book . . . create cheap but highly absorbent diapers. Prahalad, Bottom of the Pyramid, pp. 48-49.

  204. As Prahalad sums up: “Innovation in bottom . . . pyramid markets is increasingly critical.”

  Prahalad, Bottom of the Pyramid, pp. 27-28.

  204. We will add about one billion people . . . percentage share of the world population. See Naim, “Can the World Afford a Middle Class?”

  205. According to a new World Bank . . . markets, i.e., the West. See Harry G. Broadman, Africa’s Silk Road: China and India’s New Economic Frontier (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007), pp. 1-40.

  206. Yes, in the grand scheme . . . far more than resources.” Broadman, Africa’s Silk Road, p. 2.

  206. China and India have become . . . overlapping free-trade areas. Broadman, Africa’s Silk Road, pp. 177-83.

  206. World trade has more than tripled . . . globalization’s rapid advance around the planet. Lodge and Wilson, Corporate Solution to Global Poverty, pp. 12-13.

  CHAPTER 5. THE DIPLOMATIC REALIGNMENT: REBRANDING THE TEAM OF RIVALS

  208. Its why must be inculcated in . . . which levers of power to pull—and when. I spend a lot of time studying why some ideals succeed while others do not. Some great books in this regard include Peter F. Drucker, The Essential Drucker: The Best of Sixty Years of Peter Drucker’s Essential Writings on Management (New York: HarperCollins, 2001); Chip Heath and Dan Heath, Made to Stick: Why Some Ideas Survive and Others Die (New York: Random House, 2007); Frans Johansson, The Medici Effect: What Elephants & Epidemics Can Teach Us About Innovation (Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 2006); John Kao, Jamming: The Art and Discipline of Business Creativity (New York: Harper Business, 1996); and Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World (New York: Doubleday, 1991).

  209. As Parag Khanna argues . . . connectivity) has been effectively erased. Khanna, Second World, pp. xix-xxiii.

  The Undeniable Trajectory: The “Global War on Terror”

  210. If we admit that we cannot kill them faster . . . demand for personal liberty. Bremmer, J Curve, p. 272.

  213. Our intelligence community’s November 2007 estimate . . . building the “bullets.” “National Intelligence Estimate: Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities,” Office of the Director of National Intelligence, November 2007, available online at www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf.

  The American System Perturbed: The Big Bang Launched

  216. According to two former National Security Council . . . possible rapprochement. On this story, see John H. Richardson, “The Secret History of the Impending War with Iran That the White House Doesn’t Want You to Know,” Esquire, November 2007.

  217. From a December 2001 memo stating . . . We won’t try to build on it.” Quoted in Richardson, “Secret History of the Impending War with Iran.”

  217. Ironically enough, thanks to our poorly run . . . favoring American firms. On this, see Jim Michaels, “Foreign Firms Investing in Iraq: U.S. Companies Slow to Make the Move,” USA Today, June 17, 2008; and “Iraq Signs $3 Billion Oil Deal with China,” CNN, August 30, 2008, found online at edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS/ 08/30/iraq.china
.oil.deal/.

  218. This is not a fantastic scenario . . . perceptions of Iran remain hopelessly outdated. Nasr, Revival, pp. 21-29 and 227-54.

  219. As Beijing did then, Tehran now shows . . . Persian Gulf, Central and South Asia). On this, see MacMillan, Nixon and Mao, and Stephen Kinzer, “A New Partner in the Mideast,” Boston Globe, March 14, 2008.

  219. Second, despite the obvious control . . . allowed to retire or even continue political life. On this, see Ali Gheissari and Vali Nasr, Democracy in Iran: History and the Quest for Liberty (New York: Oxford University Press, 2006).

  The New Rules: From Indispensable Superpower to Insolvent Leviathan

  220. Madeleine Albright, secretary of state to Bill Clinton . . . “the indispensable nation.” As Albright stated, “If we have to use force, it is because we are America! We are the indispensable nation. We stand tall. We see further into the future”; see “Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright Interview on NBC-TV The Today Show with Matt Lauer,” February 19, 1998, as released by the Office of the Spokesman, U.S. Department of State.

  220. Where Clinton tried to do too little . . . need the world’s support to succeed.” Richard N. Haass, The Opportunity: America’s Moment to Alter History’s Course (New York: Public Affairs, 2005), pp. ix-x and 27.

  221. Part of the problem was the Bush administration’s desire . . . to be an additional crisis. Haass, Opportunity, pp. 3-8.

  221. The dream, of course, is of energy independence . . . goal that makes zero sense. On this, see Robert Bryce, Gusher of Lies: The Dangerous Delusions of Energy Independence (New York: Public Affairs, 2008).

  222. Wish away enough reasons for Western . . . Middle East into Central Africa. One of the most interesting such counterfactual examinations is found in Graham Fuller, “A World Without Islam,” Foreign Policy, January 2008.

  222. As Ian Bremmer wisely . . . playing field available to them: insurgency and terror.” Bremmer, J Curve, p. 276; see also pp. 270-77.

  223. This is a Cold War storyline . . . hermetically sealed off from one another. On this, see Michael T. Klare, Rising Power and Shrinking Planet: The New Geopolitics of Energy (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2008); but note that even here, Klare, a longtime proponent of this conflict paradigm, sees little choice but for America and China to cooperate on energy in the future (p. 249).

  223. Right now, the United States . . . China’s dependence continues to grow rapidly. See U.S. Department of Energy, International Energy Outlook 2006, found online at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/ieo06/pdf/tbl4.pdf.

  224. The strategic horizon . . . operational concepts, through the next 20 years.” Find the report online at www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2008/2008-prc-military-power04.htm.

  The New Normal: America the Contained

  226. The White House, thus challenged . . . opposition to military strikes on Iran. See Thomas P. M. Barnett, “The Man Between War and Peace,” Esquire, March 2008, found online at www.esquire.com/features/fox-fallon.

  229. As Gustavo de las Casas . . . focus their energies on bettering their countries.” Gustavo de las Casas, “Is Nationalism Good for You?,” Foreign Policy, March-April 2008.

  229. There, as longtime observer Dmitri Trenin . . . expanding NATO/EU). Dmitri Trenin, “Russia Redefines Itself and Its Relations with the West,” Washington Quarterly, Spring 2007, p. 95.

  229. As Trenin puts it, Russian leaders . . . separated primarily by the power they wield. Trenin, “Russia Redefines Itself and Its Relations with the West,” pp. 96-97.

  230. As such, we make an easy target . . . in Russia than in most European nations. On this observation, I am indebted to Lilia Shevtsova, senior associate (Moscow Office), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; see her Russia—Lost in Transition: The Yeltsin and Putin Legacies (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2007).

  The Global Accelerant: Soft-Power Balancing

  233. This is the essential forecast of Parag Khanna . . . networks managing Asia and the rest. See Khanna, Second World, pp. ix-xxvii and 321-41.

  234. If so, Joshua Kurlantzick’s recent book Charm Offensive . . . tools to implement that strategy.” Kurlantzick, Charm Offensive, p. xi.

  235. The self-limiting aspect of this process . . . business interests and expatriates abroad. “With great power comes great responsibility” was made famous in the origin of Spider-Man: Stan Lee, Amazing Fantasy #15 (New York: Marvel Comics, August 1962).

  235. The downside is, as Kurlantzick points out . . . regulatory standards in general. Kurlantzick, Charm Offensive, pp. 148-75.

  235. Naturally, as Kurlantzick points out, the local backlash . . . just beginning. Kurlantzick, Charm Offensive, pp. 197-225.

  The Inescapable Realignment: Rebranding a Team of Rivals

  238. When Doris Kearns Goodwin described . . . can also be impressive political resources.” Goodwin, Team of Rivals, p. xvii.

  239. Again, some will say we must stick with . . America see the world differently. See Kagan, Return of History, pp. 53-80. The “previous claim” is found in his 2003 book, Of Paradise and Power.

  239. But frankly, we’ll be waiting for those Godots forever. Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot: A Tragicomedy in Two Acts (New York: Grove Press 1954).

  240. Nayan Chanda’s history of globalization . . . private security corporations. Nayan Chanda, Bound Together: How Traders, Preachers, Adventurers, and Warriors Shaped Globalization (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2007).

  240. Whether it’s an Indian industrialist who wants to build . . . will not be denied. On the car, see “The One-Lakh Car: A ‘People’s Car’ from India; Tata Motors Reveals a Dirt-Cheap Model,” The Economist, January 10, 2008.

  241. As economist Adam Lerrick . . . these latest lenders “rogue creditors.” See Adam Lerrick, “World Bank Weary: Private Lenders Channel 300 Times More Capital to Developing Nations,” Wall Street Journal, October 19, 2007.

  241. As Financial Times bureau chief Edward Luce writes . . . superpower status.” Luce, In Spite of the Gods, p. 7.

  241. A while back I had the opportunity to have dinner . . . risen to world-power status. The documentary series was titled “The Rise of Great Nations.” It was aired in 2006-7. As Fareed Zakaria notes, “The episodes on the United States, for example, deal extensively with Theodore and Franklin Roosevelt’s programs to regulate and tame capitalism”; see Post-American World, p. 107.

  242. Yes, many American national security . . . “hedge our bets” in the meantime. A classic example of this thinking can be found in Michael J. Mazarr, “The Folly of ‘Asymmetric War,’ ” Washington Quarterly, Summer 2008.

  243. As one Army War College professor . . . has argued, “One NATO is not enough.” Joseph Núñez, “One NATO Is Not Enough,” New York Times, January 27, 2007.

  243. But here’s the main reason . . . discipline, not survival. I got this distinction from Shelby Steele, “Obama Is Right on Iran,” Wall Street Journal, November 26, 2007.

  The Better Normal: The Service-Oriented Alliance

  245. Service-oriented architecture . . . software packages and hardwired applications. This is a huge and evolving subject. For two easy-entry approaches, see the Wikipedia entry on SOA, found online at en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Service-oriented_architecture; and a great op-ed by Don J. Rippert, “The Building Blocks of a Simpler Future Are in Place,” Financial Times, May 10, 2006.

  247. Again, some readers will bristle at such language . . . a fantastic sum total to this vision. See Joseph E. Stiglitz and Linda J. Bilme, The Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Cost of the Iraq Conflict (New York: W.W. Norton, 2008).

  250. And no, accepting this pathway . . . “post-American world,” in Fareed Zakaria’s analysis. See Zakaria, Post-American World.

  251. Of his cabinet filled with past . . “They will be just as likely to eat each other up.” Quoted in Sandburg, Abraham Lincoln, p. 216.

  CHAPTER 6. THE SECURITY REALIGNMENT: REDISCOVERING DIPLOMAC
Y, DEFENSE, AND DEVELOPMENT

  253. Listen to Marine Corps general James Mattis . . . it was Spain, right? Well, Iraq is ours.” Barnett, “Monks of War.”

  The Undeniable Trajectory: The Miseducation of Colin Powell

  254. As he put it . . . realization of your political objectives, whatever they might be.” Kennan, Memoirs, 1925-1950, p. 309.

  255. The American military’s fix . . . “A war is a war is a war,” and let it go at that. The phrase comes from Harry G. Summers Jr., “A War Is a War Is a War,” in Loren B. Thompson, ed., Low Intensity Conflict (Lexington, MA: Rowman & Littlefield, 1989), pp. 27-49. Summers, of course, wrote the Vietnam classic that defined this viewpoint for the Powell generation: Harry G. Summers Jr., On Strategy: A Critical Analysis of the Vietnam War (Novato, CA: Dell, 1984).

  256. Suddenly, the military was back in frontier mode—back in “Injun country.” On this, see Robert D. Kaplan, Imperial Grunts: The American Military on the Ground (New York: Random House, 2005), pp. 3-15.

  257. Dissenting voices were quelled or cowed . . . he was not a grand strategist.” Karen DeYoung, Soldier: The Life of Colin Powell (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2006), p. 163 (where Powell dismisses the idea that he needs a “view of the world” to function as Secretary of State), p. 194 (for his fears of repeating Vietnam), and p. 519 (for the DeYoung description).

  258. Of Vietnam, Colin Powell had once said that . . . by their country’s leaders.” Quoted in DeYoung, Soldier, p. 91.

  The American System Perturbed: The Lost Year in Iraq

  259. The CPA was also guilty of operating . . . sobriquet of “Versailles on the Tigris.” See Chandrasekaran, Imperial Life, pp. 9-28.