Great Powers

by Thomas P. M. Barnett

  The communications shift

  405. The first billion users of Internet and wireless . . . New Core and Gap markets. On this, see Michael S. Malone, “Taking On the World,” Wall Street Journal, April 5-6, 2008.

  405. The key goal for America . . . lot of people will be able to live and work anywhere. On this, see Andreas Kluth, “Nomads: A Special Report on Mobile Telecoms,” The Economist, April 12, 2008.

  The urbanization shift

  406. The planet as a whole has just reached . . . vast majority of the world’s network traffic. On this, see Amy Meyers Jaffe, “The Coastal-Cities Phenomenon,” Esquire, October 2006.

  The feminization shift

  407. This emerging market trend . . . in advanced economies. Chart: “Balancing the Scales of Justice: More Women Are Attending U.S. Law Schools,” USA Today, June 27, 2008.

  The health shift

  408. This could be a source of great political . . . they nor their governments can afford.” Robert J. Shapiro, Futurecast: How Superpowers, Populations, and Globalization Will Change the Way You Live and Work (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2008), pp. 247-66.

  The market shift

  409. They see four strategies as paramount . . . in natural resources (“natural capital”). See Paul Hawken, Amory Lovins, and L. Hunter Lovins, Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution (Boston: Little, Brown, 1999), pp. 1-21.

  The governance shift

  409. The political scientist Francis Fukuyama divides . . . the strength of their power. Francis Fukuyama, State-Building: Governance and World Order in the 21st Century (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2004), pp. 15-16.

  410. The new emerging consensus . . . overall culture of respect for legality. See “Order in the Jungle: The Rule of Law Has Become a Big Idea in Economics. But It Has Had Its Difficulties,” The Economist, March 15, 2008.

  410. One crucial caveat here . . . to influence this global debate is slowly diminishing. See Adam Liptak, “U.S. Court, a Longtime Beacon, Is Now Guiding Fewer Nations,” New York Times, September 18, 2008.

  The Better Normal: The Great Compromise

  414. If you accept this minimal rule set . . . in defense of these proposed global rules. My thanks to Jerome E. Barnett for this concept.

  414. In sum, we won’t use force unless . . . employment—as in, every round fired. For an example of what this must ultimately resemble down the road, see Al Baker, “11 Years of Police Gunfire, in Painstaking Detail,” New York Times, May 8, 2008.

  CODA: THE FUTURE PERFECT TENSE

  417. Richard Nixon believed that nations aspiring to great power . . . great ideas. Nixon said this to Kissinger in a phone conversation on May 11, 1969, according to David S. Patterson, editor, Foreign Relations, 1969-1976: Volume I, Foundations of Foreign Policy, 1969-1972 (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 2003), p. 142; cited in MacMillan, Nixon and Mao, p. 10.

  419. The critical-mass reality . . . most assuredly we shall all hang separately.” Attributed to Franklin at the signing of the Declaration of Independence.

  420. Karl Marx believed that . . . a notion he himself proved. As Marx argued in the preface to his 1859 book, A Contribution to the Critique of Political Economy, “The mode of production of material life conditions the general process of social, political and intellectual life,” and thus “It is not the consciousness of men that determines their existence, but their social existence that determines their consciousness”; find the preface online at www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1859/critique-pol-economy/preface.htm.

  421. Which brings me to . . . The Shape of Things to Come. H. G. Wells, The Shape of Things to Come (New York: Penguin Books, 2005).

  Index

  Abizaid, John

  Abolition movement, U.S.

  Abortion controversy

  Abundance; religions and

  Acheson, Dean

  Activism, social

  Adams, John

  Adams, John Quincy

  Adaptation, Americans and

  Afghanistan; and al Qaeda

  Africa; China and; fake states; foreign aid; integration of; maritime space; Salafist movement; sub-Saharan; USAID programs

  African Union

  Africa’s Silk Road (World Bank)

  AFRICOM (U.S. Africa Command) ; Congress and

  Agency for International Development, U.S. (USAID)

  Aging populations

  Agricultural production, early U.S.

  Agricultural subsidies

  Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud

  Air Force, U.S.

  Air power, American, use of

  Air-traffic control

  al Qaeda. See Qaeda, al

  Alabama

  Albright, Madeleine K.

  Alcoholics Anonymous, twelve steps

  Alien and Sedition Acts

  Alliances, international; service-oriented

  America, capitalism in; and globalization; immigrants, international standing, and oil production; as pacifying force; public support of Middle East situation; and religion, strategic alliances, ; trade deficit with China

  American companies, Asia and

  American System; China and; economic institutions; global economy and; globalization and, , Lincoln and; and middle class; Theodore Roosevelt and, transfer of

  Americanism

  Americanization, globalization as

  Americans; and globalization

  Amistad revolt

  Anbar “awakening”

  Anglosphere colonies

  Anti-Americanism; Iran and

  Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty

  Anti-Federalists

  Antiglobalization

  Antiquities Act

  Arabs, and Treaty of Versailles

  ARAMCO (Arabian American Oil Co.)

  Arbatov, Georgi

  Arbitrationism

  Archilochus

  Architecture

  Army, U.S.; and war; and westward expansion. See also Military, U.S.

  Army Advisory Corps

  Artificial states

  Asia: and automobile industry; capitalism in; cultural wars; fake states; and global economy; and global warming, infrastructure development, middle-class growth; Muslims in; oil demand; Persian Gulf oil

  “Asia After Viet Nam” (Nixon)

  Asians, in America

  Assassination of American presidents

  Asymmetrical warfare

  Atlantic Charter

  Australia; anti-Americanism in

  Authoritarian capitalism

  Authoritarian regimes, and terrorism

  Automobiles

  Ayittey, George

  Baby boomer generation

  Bacevich, Andrew

  Baghdad; Petraeus and

  Baker, James

  Bamboo network

  Bank of the United States

  Banking industry, China

  Barbary Coast pirates

  Barnett, Thomas P. M.; adopted daughter; Blueprint for Action; “The Monks of War,” The Pentagon’s New Map

  Barnett family

  Barone, Michael

  Bates, Edward

  Battle of New Orleans

  Baumol, William

  Beckstrom, Rod

  Beijing Consensus

  Beijing Olympics (2008)

  Berlin Airlift

  Berlin Wall, fall of

  Big Bang strategy ; Iran and

  “Big firm” capitalism

  Big-war forces; and counterinsurgency

  Bilateral treaties

  Bill of Rights, British

  bin Laden, Osama; goal of

  Biological weapons

  Biotechnology

  Bipartisanship

  Birthrates, European

  Black globalization

  Black Swan, The (Taleb)

  Blackwater

  Blueprint for Action (Barnett)

  Bolshevik Revolution

  Boot, Max

  Borders of states, and economies
r />   Borgwardt, Elizabeth

  “Bottom billion,” 451n; globalization and

  Bottom of the pyramid, selling to

  Bound Together (Chanda)

  Boyd, John

  Brafman, Ori

  Brave New War (Robb)

  Brazil

  Bremer, Paul

  Bremmer, Ian

  Bretton Woods Agreements

  Brezhnev, Leonid

  “BRIC” quartet (Brazil, Russia, India, China)

  Brownstein, Ronald

  Buffett, Warren

  Bush, George H. W.

  Bush, George W., Big Bang strategy, and China; and foreign aid, foreign policy reversals; Hurricane Katrina and; and Saddam Hussein; and Iraq war, Rice and

  Bush-Cheney administration, and Africa; and Iran, and Iraq; sins of; and U.S. military; virtues of,

  Business, infrastructure for

  Business trust, climate of

  BusinessWeek

  Buyer chains

  Canada

  Cantor Fitzgerald

  Capitalism; American; American-style, authoritarian; in China; civil liberties and; globalization of, institutionalization of, politics and

  Capitalist powers, league of

  Carnegie, Andrew

  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  Carson, Iain

  Carson, Kit

  Carter, Jimmy

  Casualties: Iraq; World War II,

  Catherine II the Great of Russia

  Cedar Revolution, Lebanon

  Central Command, U.S., in Djibouti

  Central government, early views

  Central Intelligence Agency (CIA); and Soviet threat

  Central planning of economy

  Cerf, Vint

  Chalabi, Ahmed

  Chanda, Nayan

  Chandrasekaran, Rajiv

  Change: Americans and; globalization and; grand strategy and; social, religion and,

  Character, national

  Charm Offensive (Kurlantzick)

  Chase, Salmon

  Chávez, Hugo

  “Cheetah” generation, Africa

  Chen Shui-bian (President of Taiwan)

  Chen Yun

  Cheney, Dick. See also Bush-Cheney administration

  Chernow, Ron

  Chicago World’s Fair (1893)

  China; and Africa, and automobile industry; demographics; diet improvement; economy, emigrants; and environment, and fake states; foreign relations; and Gap regions; globalization and, ideological threat, infrastructure development, Internet; and Middle East; military force, and missile defense; nationalism; Nixon and; and oil production; soft power strategy; tainted products; and U.S., vulnerability; Wolfowitz Doctrine and

  China Shakes the World (Kynge)

  Chinese Revolution

  Christianity, American

  Churchill, Winston

  CIA (Central Intelligence Agency); and Soviet threat

  CIC (Council on Islamic Courts)

  Cities, nineteenth century

  Citizens, rights of

  Civil liberties

  Civil Operations, Revolutionary Development Support (CORDS)

  Civil rights movement, U.S.

  Civil War, U.S.

  Civilian workers, military and

  CJTF-HOA (Combined Joint Task Force- Horn of Africa)

  Clark, Gregory

  Class structure, global

  Clay, Henry

  Clements, Kendrick

  Clifford, Clark

  Climate change. See Global warming

  Clinton, Bill

  Clinton, DeWitt

  Clinton, Hillary

  Clinton administration

  Coal, Chinese imports

  Coalition Provisional Authority, Iraq (CPA)

  Coast Guard, U.S.

  Cody, William “Buffalo Bill,”

  Cohen, Eliot

  COIN. See Counterinsurgency

  Colbert, Stephen

  Cold War ; American System and; capitalism and; containment policy ; economy and; end of; OSCE and ; outcome of

  Collective intelligence

  Collier, Paul

  Colonial system, change of

  Colonialism; and borders of states; capitalism and

  Colonization, globalization and

  COLs (contingency operating locations)

  Commercial expansionism

  Commitment

  Commodity prices, global, China and

  Communication networks, security of

  Communications: global; technologies

  Communism, China and

  Communist movement, international

  Communities of practice

  Competition: globalization and; religious

  Confederate States. See also Civil War, U.S.

  Congress, U.S.; and AFRICOM, 460n; and Chinese military; and counterinsurgency; and Department of Everything Else; and Native Americans; Truman and; Wilson and

  Congressional Government (Wilson)

  Connectivity; economic; global; globalization and, lack of; and status of women

  Conservation movement, Theodore Roosevelt and

  Conservatism, social

  Constitution, U.S.

  Consumption: American; global changes

  Containment strategy

  Contemporary Operating Environment

  Cool It (Lomborg)

  Coolidge, Calvin

  Cooper, James Fenimore

  Copenhagen Consensus project

  CORDS (Civil Operations, Revolutionary Development Support)

  Core regions; globalization and; networks of

  Corporate scandals

  Corruption; China and

  Cotton production

  Council on Foreign Relations

  Counterinsurgency; global; goal of; outsourcing of; privatization of; U.S. military and

  Counterinsurgency (COIN) doctrine

  Counterinsurgency Field Manual

  Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam (Nagl)

  Counterinsurgency Warfare (Galula)

  Counterparties, economy and

  Counterterrorism

  CPA (Coalition Provisional Authority, Iraq)

  Crane, Conrad

  Creativity: legislative; revolution and

  Crisis, culture and

  Croatians

  Crook, George

  Cuban Missile Crisis

  Cultural identity, globalization and

  Cultural Revolution, China

  Culture: American, immigration and, crisis and; globalization and

  Currency, paper

  Customs Service, U.S.

  Dairy products

  Dangerous Nation (Kagan)

  Darfur; China and; ICC and

  de las Casas, Gustavo

  Deal-making

  DeAngelis, Stephen

  Decolonization, after World War II

  Dedication

  Defense, security and

  Defense Department, U.S.

  Defense Planning Guidance (DPG)

  Defense spending, U.S.

  Demand, in global economy

  Demand center, global, U.S. as

  Democracies: American-style; and income increase

  Democracy; American, annual income; bottom-up, China and; demographics and; entrepreneurial capitalism and, in Gap regions; globalization and; and leadership; Lincoln and; middle class and, 439n; religion and; worldwide emergence

  Democratic Party

  Democratization; economic globalization and; Middle East, New Core and

  Demographics; Asian; China, in emerging economies; global, changes in, and infrastructure development, Middle East

  Demonization of enemies

  Deng Xiaoping ; and market economy

  Department of Everything Else

  Depression, economic, American leadership; and

  bipartisanship

  Deregulation of financial markets

  Descartes, René

  Desert Storm

>   Detachment, grand strategy of

  Détente, European

  Deterrence, search for

  Deus ex machina

  Developing countries, and democracy

  Developing economies, foreign aid to

  Development-in-a-Box

  DeYoung, Karen

  Diamond, Jared

  Dictatorships

  Diet, improvement of

  Dignam, Michael

  DIME package (diplomacy, information, military, economic)

  Diplomacy; Bush-Cheney and, and nuclear weapons; Theodore Roosevelt and

  Diplomatic compromises

  Discipline, wars of

  Disconnectedness

  Disestablishment of religion

  Djibouti, U.S. Central Command

  “Domino effect,”

  DPG (Defense Planning Guidance)

  Draft, end of

  Drury, Allen

  D’Souza, Dinesh

  Dulles, John Foster

  Easterly, William; The White Man’s Burden

  Eastern European immigrants

  Eberstadt, Nicholas

  Economic Consequences of the Peace, The (Keynes)

  Economic liberty, politics and

  Economies: global, comparative rankings ; non-Western

  Economy, Elizabeth

  Economy: American System; Cold War and; institutionalization of; international, after World War I, Iraq, postwar; Middle East, and war on terror; neo-Marxist views; politics and; religion and; Soviet; strategic realignments, China; and terrorism; transportation and; U.S.; after World War II, planning --global; Asian nations and; deregulation and, expansion of; flexibility in; infrastructure development, liberal trade order and; private-sector demand and; radical extremism and; terrorism and,

  Egypt; U.S. and

  Eisenhower, Dwight D.

  Elections, U.S.; early American

  Elite class: and authoritarianism; economy dominated by; and globalization

  Emancipation Proclamation

  Emerging economies

  Emerging powers, alliances with

  Enemies of America; demonization of ; globalization and

  Enemy at Home, The (D’Souza)

  Energy: global demand; sources, India and

  Energy independence

  Enriquez, Juan

  Enterra Solutions

  Entrepreneurial capitalism

  Entrepreneurship; and middle class; revolution and