Dreams and Shadows: The Future of the Middle East

by Robin Wright

  8.Palestinians charged the crash was deliberate; the accident followed the stabbing of an Israeli shopping in Gaza a few days earlier.

  9.The interview was posted on the Internet several years later: http://www.palestineremembered.com/al-ramla/zarnuqa/story455.html.

  10.The turning point was a controversial visit by Ariel Sharon to the Temple Mount, the site of the Dome of the Rock and the al Aqsa mosque. Al Aqsa is the third holiest site in Islam. Muslims believe the prophet Mohammed ascended into heaven from a rock at the mosque to hear the word of God. The Dome of the Rock—a spectacular gold-domed structure built around the rock and decorated with azure blue and teal green tiles—is the dominant landmark on Jerusalem’s skyline. But both structures are also built on a plateau above the Jews’ First and Second Temples, the holiest site in Judaism. Competing claims to the thirty-five-acre plateau make it the most contested religious site in the world. Sharon, the rotund former general who then led the Israeli opposition, reportedly had Palestinian approval for the visit but had been warned that the Palestinians could not provide protection. So Sharon was accompanied by hundreds of well-armed Israeli police. Soon after his half-hour visit, clashes broke out on the Temple Mount between rock-throwing Palestinians and Israeli troops responding with tear gas and rubber bullets. Many Palestinians thought Sharon’s visit was political, since he was under assault from right-wing rivals in the Likud Party and was likely to face a national election soon. Five months later, in fact, he won a landslide victory and became Israel’s prime minister—in part because of insecurity sparked by the new intifada. Many Israelis, in turn, charged that the Palestinian Authority encouraged confrontation to deflect attention from Arafat’s failure to make peace. The official media called on Palestinians to support their brothers who had taken a stand at the Temple Mount.

  11.Daniel Williams, “The Second Uprising,” The Washington Post, Jan. 21, 2001.

  12.According to statistics from the Israeli Foreign Ministry and Human Rights Watch, some 120 Israelis were killed in attacks between 1994 and the outbreak of the uprising in September 2000. Between 2000 and 2005, hundreds of Israelis were killed in dozens of attacks each year. In the spring of 2005, the main Palestinian militant factions declared an unofficial cease-fire or hudna.

  13.The al Qassam Brigade was named after Izz al-Din al-Qassam, a Syrian-born cleric who had led attacks against British colonial officials and Jewish targets in the 1920s and 1930s. He was killed by British forces after he murdered a Jewish policeman.

  14.International Crisis Group, Enter Hamas: The Challenges of Political Integration, Middle East Report No. 49, Jan. 18, 2006; and Hamas, Council on Foreign Relations, June 8, 2007, http://www.cfr.org/publication/8968.

  15.Khalil Shikaki, “The Future of Palestine,” Foreign Affairs, vol. 83, no. 6, Nov.–Dec. 2004.

  16.Jim Hoagland, “Friends of the CIA,” The Washington Post, Apr. 7, 2002.

  17.United Nations Information System on the Question of Palestine, “Chronological Review of Events Relating to the Question of Palestine: Monthly Media Monitoring Review,” July 2001.

  18.Hanna Rosin, “Schools’ Links to Hamas Give Arafat Dilemma,” The Washington Post, Jan. 2, 2002.

  19.Greg Myre, “Political Sibling Rivalry: Hebron Parliamentary Race Pits Brother Against Brother,” The New York Times, Jan. 24, 2006.

  20.International Crisis Group, Enter Hamas: The Challenges of Political Integration, Middle East Report No. 49, Jan. 18. 2006.

  21.The full text of the March 19, 2005 Cairo Declaration:

  (1) Those gathered confirmed their adherence to Palestinian principles, without any neglect, and the right of the Palestinian people to resistance in order to end the occupation, establish a Palestinian state with full sovereignty with Jerusalem as its capital, and the guaranteeing of the right of return of refugees to their homes and property.

  (2) Those gathered agreed on a program for the year 2005, centered on the continuation of the atmosphere of calm in return for Israel’s adherence to stopping all forms of aggression against our land and our Palestinian people, no matter where they are, as well as the release of all prisoners and detainees.

  (3) Those gathered confirmed that the continuation of settlement and the construction of the wall and the Judaization of Jerusalem are explosive issues.

  (4) Those gathered explored the internal Palestinian situation and agreed on the necessity of completing total reform in all areas, of supporting the democratic process in its various aspects and of holding local and legislative elections at their determined time according to an election law to be agreed upon. The conference recommends to the Legislative Council that it take steps to amend the legislative elections law, relying on an equal division (of seats) in a mixed system, and it recommends that the law for elections of local councils be amended on the basis of proportional representation.

  (5) Those gathered agreed to develop the Palestine Liberation Organization on bases that will be settled upon in order to include all the Palestinian powers and factions, as the organizationis the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. To do this, it has been agreed upon to form a committee to define these bases, and the committee will be made up of the president of the National Council, the members of the PLO’s Executive Committee, the secretaries general of all Palestinian factions and independent national personalities. The president of the executive committee will convene this committee.

  (6) Those gathered felt unanimously that dialogue is the sole means of interaction among all the factions, as a support to national unity and the unity of the Palestinian ranks. They were unanimous in forbidding the use of weapons in internal disputes, respecting the rights of the Palestinian citizen and refraining from violating them, and that continuing dialogue through the coming period is a basic necessity toward unifying our speech and preserving Palestinian rights.

  22.International Crisis Group, Enter Hamas: The Challenges of Political Integration, Middle East Report No. 49, Jan. 18. 2006.

  23.Hamas, Council on Foreign Relations, June 8, 2007, http://www.cfr.org/publication/8968; and “Hamas Terrorist Attacks,” Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mar. 22, 2004, www.mfa.gov.il/mfa/terrorism.

  24.Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, press briefing en route to London, Jan. 29. 2006.

  25.“Hamas: Palestinians Suffering Moral Crisis,” interview with Sheikh Nayef Rajoub, aljazeera.net, Jan. 17, 2006.

  26.International Crisis Group, Enter Hamas: The Challenges of Political Integration, Middle East Report No. 49, Jan. 18. 2006.

  27.Interview with Italy’s La Repubblica cited by Samia Nakhoul, “Arabs Face Stark Choice: Reform or Ruin,” Reuters, Mar. 25, 2004.

  28.Mohammed Yaghi, “The Growing Anarchy in the Palestinian Territories,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, May 16, 2006.

  29.Mathew Levitt, “Hamas’s Hidden Economy,” Los Angeles Times, July 3, 2007.

  30.Khaled Mashaal, “We Will Not Sell Our People or Principles for Foreign Aid,” The Guardian, Jan. 31, 2006.

  31.Dion Nissenbaum, “Islamic Fundamentalist Group Suspected of Killing Prostitutes,” McClatchy Newspapers, Mar. 1, 2007.

  32.Jake Lipton, “The War of Words Between Hamas and al Qaeda,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, June 28, 2007.

  33.Nathan J. Brown, “The Peace Process Has No Clothes: The Decay of the Palestinian Authority and the International Response,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 14, 2007.

  34.Jake Lipton, “The War of Words Between Hamas and al Qaeda,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, June 28, 2007.

  35.“Israel-Palestinians Q & A,” The Associated Press, June 13, 2007.

  36.Nidal al-Mughrabi, “Bloody Day in Gaza Raises Civil War Fears,” Reuters, June 12, 2007.

  37.Nidal al-Mughrabi, “Hamas Gunmen Hunt Down Fatah Rivals in Gaza Strip,” Reuters, June 14, 2007.

  38.Dion Nissenbaum, “Hamas Fighters Tighten Hold on Gaza,” McClatchy Newspapers, J
une 13, 2007.

  39.Nidal al-Mughrabi, “Hamas Defeat Fatah in Gaza, Abbas Declares Emergency,” Reuters, June 14, 2007.

  40.Dion Nissenbaum, “Hamas’ Rule over Gaza Begins with Promises, Pillaging,” McClatchy Newspapers, June 15, 2007.

  41.Scott Wilson, “Fatah Gunmen Assert Authority in West Bank,” The Washington Post, July 8, 2007.

  42.Dion Nissenbaum, “Hamas Fighters Tighten Hold on Gaza,” McClatchy Newspapers, June 13, 2007.

  43.“Mashaal: Hamas to Work with Fatah,” Alalam News, June 15, 2007.

  44.Craig S. Smith and Greg Myre, “Hamas May Find It Needs Its Enemy,” The New York Times, June 17, 2007.

  CHAPTER TWO: EGYPT: THE TURNING POINTS

  1.“Shayfeen.com Report on Egypt’s First Presidential Campaign” (English), Sept. 7, 2005.

  2.“Shayfeen.com Report on Egypt’s First Presidential Campaign” (English), Sept. 7, 2005, and “Shayfeen.com Special Report” (Arabic), Sept. 8, 2005.

  3.Reem Nafie, “Illiteracy Revisited: A Major New Project Aiming to Significantly Reduce Illiteracy Has Just Been Launched,” Al-Ahram Weekly, Sept. 4–10, 2003.

  4.“2005 Human Rights Report: Egypt,” U.S. Department of State, Mar. 8, 2006.

  5.Interviews with United States officials in Cairo, Feb.–Mar. 2006.

  6.“Egypt: Flawed Election But…,” Democracy Digest, vol. 2, no. 9, Sept. 13, 2005.

  7.“2005 Human Rights Report: Egypt,” U.S. Department of State, Mar. 8, 2006.

  8.Telephone interview with a senior Western diplomat in Cairo who stipulated that I could use the information only if I protected his name and nationality, Mar. 2, 2006.

  9.“Multiple Violations in the Third Round and the Responsibility of the Security Services,” Shayfeen.com, Dec. 3, 2006.

  10.“The Last Days of the Elections Are the Worst,” Shayfeencom, Dec. 8, 2005.

  11.“Egypt: Fear of Torture or Ill-Treatment/Incommunicado Detention,” Amnesty International, Apr. 16, 2003.

  12.Megan K. Stack, “Pain of Political Change,” Los Angeles Times, Dec. 7, 2005.

  13.“Egypt: Human Rights Developments,” Human Rights Watch, World Report 2001.

  14.Charles Levinson, “Brotherhood Blues,” Cairo Times, vol. 7, no. 28, Sept. 18–24, 2003.

  15.Samia Mehrez, “Take Them Out of the Ball Game: Egypt’s Cultural Players in Crisis,” Middle East Report No. 219, Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP), vol. 31, no. 2, Summer 2001.

  16.Mohamed Sid-Ahmed, “The Intelligentsia and Politics,” Al-Ahram Weekly, no. 517, Jan. 18–24, 2001.

  17.Gamal Essam el-Din, “Brotherhood in the Crossfire,” Al-Ahram Weekly, no. 620, Jan. 9–15, 2003.

  18.“Egypt: Country Reports on Human Rights Practices 2004,” Human Rights Report, U.S. Department of State, Feb. 28, 2005.

  19.Stack, “Pain of Political Change.”

  20.Ibid.

  21.Nathan J. Brown and Hesham Nasr, “Egypt’s Judges Step Forward,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Policy Outlook, Democracy and Rule of Law Project, May 2005.

  22.Dina Shehata, “Egyptian Judges Test the Government’s Commitment to Democratic Reform,” Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, no. 36, June 28, 2005. http//www.ahram.org./eg/acpss/Eng/ahram/2004/7/5/ESYP43/htm.

  23.Brown and Nasr, “Egypt’s Judges Step Forward”; and Shehata, “Egyptian Judges Test the Government’s Commitment to Democratic Reform.”

  24.Telephone interviews with the two lawyers in the case, Yosry el Sawy, Mar. 16, 2006, and Ayman el Foly, Mar. 14, 2006.

  25.Megan K. Stack, “Some Judges in Egypt Lend Voice to Chorus for Reform, The Los Angeles Times, May 2, 2005; and Mona El-Nahhas, “Judges of Character,” Al-Ahram Weekly, Dec. 29, 2005–Jan. 4, 2006.

  26.Mona el-Nahhas, “Judges of Character.”

  27.Mona el-Nahhas, “Judicial Stand-off,” Al-Ahram Weekly, no. 783, Feb. 23–Mar. 1, 2006.

  28.Nadia Abou el-Magd, “Egyptian Judges Protest Lack of Freedom,” Associated Press, Mar. 17, 2006.

  29.“Egypt Judges Take Protest to the Streets,” aljazeera.net, Mar. 17, 2006.

  30.Nadia Abou el-Magd, “Egyptian Judges Protest Lack of Freedom.”

  31.“Mandate,” Baheyya: Egypt Analysis and Whimsy: Commentary on Egyptian Politics and Culture by an Egyptian Citizen with a Room of Her Own, Baheyya.blogspot.com, Dec. 20, 2005.

  32.“Egypt Threatens Journalists over Referendum Violence Complaints,” Agence France Presse, June 14, 2005; and Amira Howeidy, “Zero Tolerance for Torture,” Al-Ahram Weekly, no. 749, June 30–July 6, 2005.

  33.Amira Howeidy, “Zero Tolerance for Torture.”

  34.Amnesty International Report 1989 (London: Amnesty International Publications, 1989), p. 253.

  35.Ibid.

  36.Glenn E. Perry, “Challenging Islamic Fundamentalism: The Writings of Muhammad Said al-Ashmawy,” Ethnic NewsWatch, Digest of Middle East Studies ( DOMES ), July 31, 1999; and Rose Ismail, “Political Islam a Deviation?” The New Straits Times (Malaysia), Apr. 21, 2000.

  37.Pamela Nice, “Finding the Right Language: A Conversation with Syrian Filmmaker Usama Muhammad,” Al Jadid, vol. 6, no. 31, Spring 2000.

  38.Alan Sipress, “Creativity Under Siege in Egypt,” The Philadelphia Inquirer, Feb. 28, 1994.

  CHAPTER THREE: EGYPT: THE PLAYERS

  1.Ziad Munson, “Islamic Mobilization: Social Movement Theory and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood,” The Sociological Quarterly, vol. 42, no. 4, Fall 2001, pp. 487–510.

  2.Interview with Assistant Foreign Minister Sallama Shaker, Feb. 21, 2006.

  3.Amira Howeidy, “Politics in God’s Name,” Al Ahram Weekly, no. 247, Nov. 16–22, 1995.

  4.Daniel Williams, “Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood May Be Model for Islam’s Political Adaptation,” The Washington Post, Feb. 3, 2006.

  5.Ibid.

  6.Sarah Gauch, “Egypt’s Opposition Targets Reforms,” The Christian Science Monitor, Mar. 23, 2006.

  7.Amira Howeidy, “Muslim Brotherhood Flexes Muscles,” aljazeera.net, Dec. 5, 2005.

  8.http://www.ummah.net/ikhwan.

  9.Robin Wright, Sacred Rage: The Wrath of Militant Islam (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2001), p. 178.

  10.Amira Howeidy, “Politics in God’s Name,” Al-Ahram Weekly, no. 247, Nov. 16–22, 1995.

  11.http://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h2177.html

  12.Sayyid Qutb, Milestones (Indianapolis: American Trust Publications, 1990).

  13.Ibid.

  14.Steve Coll, “Letter from Jedda. Young Osama: How He Learned Radicalism, and May Have Seen America,” The New Yorker, Dec. 12, 2005.

  15.Robin Wright, “Quiet Revolution: Islamic Movement’s New Phase,” third of a five-part series, “Politics in the Name of God,” The Christian Science Monitor, Nov. 6, 1987.

  16.John Walsh, “Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood: Understanding Centrist Islam,” Perspectives on the United States: A Splintered Mirror, Harvard International Review, vol. 24, Winter 2003.

  17.Robin Wright, Sacred Rage: The Wrath of Militant Islam (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2001), pp. 175–178.

  18.Ibid.

  19.Ibid.

  20.Omar Sinan, “Al Qaeda Touts U.S. Troop Cuts in Iraq in a New Zawahiri Tape,” Associated Press, Jan. 6, 2006.

  21.Steven Stalinsky, “Egyptian Support for Killing American Soldiers in Iraq,” Middle East Media Research Institute, Dec. 2, 2004.

  22.www.harakamasria.org, www.harakamasria.net. and www.harakamasria.com.

  23.Shaden Shehab, “Gomaa’s Last Stand,” Al-Ahram Weekly, Apr. 6–12, 2006; and Miret el-Nagger, “Standoff Deals Blow to Secular Parties in Egypt,” Knight Ridder, Apr. 7, 2006.

  24.Ron Nordland, “The Pharaoh and the Rebel,” Newsweek, Dec. 30, 2005.

  25.Ayman Nour, “Letter from Prison: Did I Take Democracy Too Seriously?” Newsweek, Mar. 14, 2005.

  26.“Egypt: Focus on Second Week of Campaigning,” IRINnews.org, United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs,
Aug. 25, 2005.

  27.Daniel Williams, “Mubarak’s 2005 Election Rival Sits in Jail as Movement Withers,” Bloomberg News, Mar. 6, 2007.

  28.Gamal Essam el-Din, “Re-introducing Gamal Mubarak,” Al-Ahram Weekly, Mar. 30–Apr. 5, 2006.

  29.The reign of Ramses II was the longest, at more than sixty years in the thirteenth century B.C. That of Mohammed Ali was the second longest, at forty years in the nineteenth century. From Saad Eddin Ibrahim at the Capitol Hill Conference Series on U.S. Middle East Policy, Hart Senate Office Buildling, Apr. 22, 2005.

  30.Gamal Essam el-Din, “It Won’t Happen Here,” Al-Ahram Weekly, no. 672, Jan. 8–14, 2004.

  31.Gamal Essam el-Din, “Re-introducing Gamal Mubarak.”

  32.Gamal Essam el-Din, “It Won’t Happen Here,” Al-Ahram Weekly, no. 672, Jan. 8–14, 2004.

  33.Nevine Khalil, “Young Minds, Open Debate,” Al-Ahram Weekly, no. 637, May 8–14, 2003.

  34.Daniel Williams, “Egyptians Wonder If Dynasty Is Near; Mubarak’s Son Gaining Prominence,” The Washington Post, Sept. 24, 2004.

  35.“Book Eulogises Mubarak’s Son,” Agence France Presse, Mar. 9, 2004.

  36.Tom Perry, “Egypt Islamist Sees Mubarak’s Son Seeking Presidency,” Reuters, Feb. 27, 2006.

  37.Rod Nordland, “The Pharaoh and the Rebel,” Newsweek, Dec. 30, 2005.

  38.Interview with Mohammed el-Sayed Said, deputy director of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.

  39.“Egypt Detaining More People, Rights Council Says,” Reuters, Apr. 5, 2006.

  40.Hannah Allam, “Egyptian Reformer’s Experience a Cautionary Tale, Knight Ridder Newspapers, Mar. 30, 2006.

  41.Amira Howeidy, “I Fear For Egypt,” Al-Ahram Weekly, no. 786, Mar. 16–22, 2006.

  42.Hannah Allam, “Egyptian Reformer’s Experience a Cautionary Tale.”