Dreams and Shadows: The Future of the Middle East

by Robin Wright

  34.Dr. Nimrod Raphaeli, “The Syrian Economy under Bashar al Assad,” Middle East Media Research Institute, no. 259, Jan. 13, 2006.

  35.Matthew Levitt, “Syria and the War on Terrorism: Challenges for U.S. Policy (Part II),” PolicyWatch No. 596, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Jan. 24, 2002.

  36.Thomas L. Friedman, From Beirut to Jerusalem, p. 80.

  37.Albert Aji, “Prominent Syrian Human Rights Lawyer Among 6 Detained in Large Roundup,” Associated Press, May 17, 2006; and Mohammed Bazzi, “Syria Cracks Down on Dissidents,” Newsday, May 19, 2006.

  CHAPTER SEVEN: IRAN: THE REVOLUTIONARIES

  1.Hamid Algar, Islam and Revolution: Writings and Declarations of Imam Khomeini (Berkeley, CA: Mizan Press, 1981) , pp. 169–173.

  2.Ironically, the loan was largely to buy American arms.

  3.Hamid Algar, Islam and Revolution, pp. 181–88.

  4.Muqtedar Khan, “Two Theories of Ijtihad,” Common Ground News Service, Mar. 22, 2006.

  5.Other faiths are deliberately excluded, notably the Baha’i, and often persecuted. The Baha’i are particularly viewed as heretics. They are also resented politically, as many were close to or worked for the monarchy.

  6.The Soviet Union and Britain invaded Iran in 1941 and forced Reza Shah to abdicate in favor of his twenty-two-year-old son. Reza Shah Pahlavi fled to South Africa, where he died three years later.

  7.Akbar Ganji, Republican Manifesto, Sept. 2, 2002.

  8.Akbar Ganji, Republican Manifesto II, May 30, 2005.

  9.Akbar Ganji, “Second Letter to the Free people of the World,” July 10, 2005.

  10.Akbar Ganji, “Letter to America,” The Washington Post, Sept. 21, 2006.

  CHAPTER EIGHT: IRAN: THE REACTIONARIES

  1.Robin Wright, In the Name of God: The Khomeini Decade (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1989), p. 227.

  2.“Abolishing the Ruling Islamic Party: Why and for Whose Sake? The Middle East Reporter, July 11, 1987, pp 13–15.

  3.Cheryl Benard and Zalmay Khalilzad, The Government of God: Iran’s Islamic Republic (New York: Columbia University Press, 1984), p. 110.

  4.Shaul Bakhash, The Reign of the Ayatollahs: Iran and the Islamic Revolution (New York: Basic Books 1989), p. 75.

  5.“Chronology,” Middle East Journal, vol. 36, no. 1, Winter 1982, p. 75.

  6.Among the Web sites collecting these are http://www.khamenei.de and http://www.khamenei.ir.

  7.Youssef M. Ibrahim, “Montazeri’s Evolution: An Heir Is Gone,” The New York Times, Apr. 2, 1989.

  8.Patrick E. Tyler, “Ten Days of Dawn, Ten Years of Struggle,” The Washington Post, Feb. 2, 1989.

  9.“Ayatollah Khomeini’s Criticism of the Government,” The Echo of Iran, Oct. 18, 1988, p. 9.

  10.The fatwa, read on Tehran Radio afternoon news, also called for the death of all those involved in the book’s publication. “I call on zealous Muslims to promptly execute them on the spot they find them, so that no one else will dare to blaspheme Muslim sanctities,” his fatwa declared.

  11.Elaine Sciolino, “Montazeri, Khomeini’s Designated Successor in Iran, Quits Under Pressure,” The New York Times, Mar. 29, 1989.

  12.Nazenin Ansari, “An Ayatollah Under Siege in Tehran,” Open Democracy, Oct. 4, 2006; and Nazila Fathi, “Iran Arrests Outspoken Cleric Who Opposes Religious Rule,” The New York Times, Oct. 9, 2006.

  13.Nazila Fathi, “Qum Journal: Where the Austerity of Islam Yields to a Yen for Chic,” The New York Times, June 7, 2005.

  14.Shaul Bakhash, “Iran’s Unlikely President,” The New York Review of Books, vol. 45, no. 17, Nov. 5, 1998.

  15.Neil MacFarquhar, “Iran Leader Vows to Enact Reforms in His Second Term,” The New York Times, Aug. 9, 2001.

  16.“Khatami Threatens Resignation over Power Struggle with Hard-Liners: Move Comes in Response to Widespread Dissatisfaction,” The Daily Star, July 14, 2003.

  17.Joe Klein, “Who Is Winning the Fight for Iran’s Future?” The New Yorker, Feb. 18–25, 2002.

  18.Karl Vick, “Iranian Elections Marked by Secular Messages, Apathy,” The Washington Post, June 15, 2005.

  19.Naysan Rafati, “Iran’s President Election: The Candidates Speak,” The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, June 23, 2005.

  20.Shaul Bakhash, “Reading Jefferson in Tehran,” The Washington Post, Aug. 13, 2006.

  21.“Iran’s Revolutionary Manager: Ahmadinejad in His Own Words,” Agence France Presse, June 25, 2005.

  22.Michael Slackman, “Winner in Iran Calls for Unity; Reformists Reel,” The New York Times, June 26, 2005.

  23.Shaul Bakhash, “Iran’s Unlikely President,” The New York Review of Books, vol. 45, no. 17, Nov. 5, 1998.

  24.Nasser Karimi, “Iran’s President Bans Western Music on Radio and Television,” Associated Press, Dec. 19, 2005.

  25.“Iran’s Revolutionary Manager: Ahmadinejad in his own words,” Agence France Presse, June 25, 2005.

  26.Karl Vick, “A Man of the People’s Needs and Wants; Ahmadinejad Praised in Iran as Caring Leader,” The Washington Post, June 3, 2006.

  27.Neil MacFarquar, “Iran’s New Ideal: Small Families,” International Herald Tribune, Sept. 9, 2006.

  28.Anthony Shadid, “Iran’s Population Program Cited as a Model,” Associated Press, Feb. 6, 1995.

  29.Robert Tait, “Ahmadinejad Urges Iranian Baby Boom to Challenge West,” The Guardian, Oct. 23, 2006.

  30.Ibid.

  31.www.ahmadinejad.ir/en/autobiography.

  32.Robin Wright, “Chemical Arms’ Effects Linger Long After War,” Los Angeles Times, Nov. 19, 2002.

  33.Robin Wright, “Years After Exposure, Germ Warfare Victims Deteriorate,” Los Angeles Times, Nov. 27, 2002. In a declassified report, the CIA estimated in 1991 that Iran suffered more than 50,000 casualties, including untold thousands of deaths, from Iraq’s use of several chemical weapons. But Iran claims the tally has since soared as both troops and civilians have developed the telltale symptoms up to fifteen years later because low-dose exposure deferred physical deterioration or collapse.

  34.Brenda Shaffer, “Iran at the Nuclear Threshold,” Arms Control Today, November 2003; and interview with Robert Einhorn, former State Department Assistant Secretary for Nonproliferation, Apr. 9, 2007.

  35.Ali Akbar Dareini, “Iran Issues New Bank Note with Nuclear Symbol, Amid Standoff with the West,” Associated Press, Mar. 12, 2007.

  36.http://www.ahmadinejad.ir

  37.John Daniszewski, “Iran’s Runner-Up Puts Fundamentalists in the Race,” Los Angeles Times, June 21, 2005.

  38.Paul Hughes, “Iran President Paves the Way for Arabs’ Imam Return,” Reuters, Nov. 17, 2005.

  39.Interview with Kenneth Katzman, March 2007; and Kenneth Katzman, The Warriors of Islam: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1993).

  40.Anthony Cordesman and Martin Kleiber, Iran’s Assymetric Warfighting Capabilities (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Affairs, 2007).

  41.Ibid.

  42.“Quds Force: Iranian Regime’s Instrument for Extraterritorial Terror Activities,” National Council of Resistance of Iran, Dec. 26, 2006, http://www.ncr-iran.org/content/view/2686/69.

  43.Anthony Cordesman and Martin Kleiber, Iran’s Assymetric Warfighting Capabilities. Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Affairs. 2007.

  CHAPTER NINE: MOROCCO: THE COMPROMISES

  1.Thomas Carothers, “The ‘Sequencing’ Fallacy: How Democracies Emerge,” Journal of Democracy, vol. 18, no. 1, Jan. 2007.

  2.Hitler actually never won more than forty-four percent in popular elections. He came to power through coalitions.

  3.“Human Rights in Morocco,” press conference of Driss Benzekri, National Press Club, Washington D.C., Jan. 19, 2006.

  4.Geoff Pingree and Lisa Abend, “Morocco Moves Gradually to Address Past Repression,” The Christian Science Monitor, Sept. 23, 2005.

  5.“Gradual Reform in Morocco,” The Economist, Aug. 7, 20
04.

  6.Marina Ottaway, “Morocco: From Top-down Reform to Democratic Transition?” Carnegie Paper Middle East Series No. 71, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Oct. 2006.

  7.Charles Levinson, “Letter from Rabat,” MEIonline.com, Sept. 15, 2005.

  8.Scott MacLeod, “Whatever I Do, It Will Never Be Good Enough,” Time Europe, vol. 155, no. 15, June 26, 2000.

  9.“Human Rights after the Casablanca Bombings,” Human Rights Watch, Oct. 2004.

  10.Dana Priest, “CIA Holds Terror Suspects in Secret Prisons: Debate Is Growing Within Agency About Legality and Morality of Overseas System Set Up After 9/11,” The Washington Post, Nov. 2, 2005.

  11.“Morocco: Counter-terror Crackdown Sets Back Rights Progress,” Human Rights Watch, Oct. 21, 2004.

  12.Fatima Mernissi, Dreams of Trespass: Tales of a Harem Girlhood (New York: Basic Books, 1994), p. 78.

  13.Ibid., p. 22.

  14.Translations of the Koran vary (as do translations of the Bible). The authorized English translation of Sura (or chapter) 41, verse 34 reads: “Not equal is the good response and the bad response. You shall resort to the nicest possible response. Thus, the one who used to be your enemy may become your best friend.”

  15.Fatima Mernissi, Dreams of Trespass pp. 118–19.

  16.Ibid., pp. 200–1.

  17.Ted Thornton, “Qasim Amin,” History of the Middle East Database, Aug. 7, 2006; and Susan Muaddi Darraj, “Understanding the Other Sister: The Case of Arab Feminism,” Monthly Review, vol. 53, no. 10, Mar. 2002.

  18.Fatima Mernissi, The Veil and the Male Elite: A Feminist’s Interpretation of Women’s Rights in Islam (Cambridge, Mass.: Perseus Books, 1987), p. 102.

  19.Fatima Mernissi, Women and Islam: An Historical and Theological Enquiry (Malden, Mass.: Blackwell, 1991).

  20.The Arab Human Development Report 2005 (New York: The United Nations, Dec. 2006), pp. 9, 106–7.

  21.Ibid., pp. 7–8, 72–83, 305–7. In contrast, only thirty-eight percent of Moroccan men are illiterate.

  22.Iman Ghazalla, Sculpting the Rock of Women’s Rights: The Role of Women’s Organizations in Promoting the National Plan of Action To Integrate Women in Development in Morocco (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, 2001).

  23.“Morocco Gets First Women Preachers,” Agence France Press, Apr. 28, 2006.

  24.Rabea Naciri, “Morocco,” in Women’s Rights in the Middle East and North Africa: Citizenship and Justice, Sameena Nazir and Leigh Tomppert, eds. (New York: Freedom House, 2005).

  25.“Morocco: Hidden Child Workers Face Abuse: Girls Working as Domestics Denied Basic Rights.” Human Rights Watch, Dec. 20. 2005.

  26.Middle East Policy Council, Capitol Hill Conference Series on U.S. Middle East Policy, Hart Senate Office Building, Apr. 22, 2005.

  27.Rachid Idrissi Kaitouni, “The Moroccan Parliamentary System,” 107th Interparliamentary Conference, Marrakech, Mar. 17–23, 2002.

  28.Roula Khalaf, “Morocco Sees the Rise of ‘Acceptable’ Islamist Party, The Financial Times, May 23, 2006.

  29.Saadeddine Othmani, “Islamist Political Parties and Winning the Challenge of Democratic Reform,” Paper delivered at the 2006 annual conference of the Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy, Washington, D.C., May 5, 2006.

  30.“Islamic Extremism: Common Concern for Muslim and Western Publics: Support for Terror Wanes Among Muslim Publics,” Pew Research Center Global Survey, July 14, 2005.

  31.“Landmarks in the Party’s History,” on the Justice and Development Party Web site, http://www.pjd.ma.

  32.Saadeddine Othmani, “Islamist Political Parties.”

  33.“In the Spotlight: Moroccan Combatant Group,” Center for Defense Information, May 21, 2004; “Fighting Back: The Hunt for Terrorists in Spain and France,” The Economist, Apr. 7, 2004; and Peter Finn and Keith B. Richburg, “Madrid Probe Turns to Islamic Cell in Morocco,” The Washington Post, Mar. 20, 2004.

  34.Marina Ottaway, “Morocco: From Top-down Reform to Democratic Transition?” Carnegie Paper, Middle East Series, no. 71, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Oct. 2006.

  35.Bruce Maddy-Weitzman, “Islamism, Moroccan Style: The Ideas of Sheikh Yassine,” Middle East Quarterly, vol. 10, no. 1, Winter 2003.

  36.Geoff Pingree and Lisa Abend, “Morocco’s Rising Islamist Challenge,” The Christian Science Monitor, Nov. 23, 2005.

  CHAPTER TEN: IRAQ AND THE UNITED STATES: THE FURIES

  1.Joshua Landis, “Riad al Turk Interview: 11 March 2005,” www.syriacomment.com, Mar. 19, 2005.

  2.BBC interview by Lise Doucet, Aug. 8, 2006.

  3.Country studies, CIA Factbook.

  4.“Whatever Happened to the Iraqi Kurds?” Human Rights Watch, Mar. 11, 1991.

  5.Saddam’s intervention also forced the United States to abandon a large CIA covert operation supporting an opposition coalition based in Kurdistan.

  6.Robin Wright, “Families Are Harassed or Starved Out: A Decree Allows Minorities to Change Their Ethnicity,” Los Angeles Times, Dec. 3, 2002.

  7.Isam al Khafaji, “The Myth of Iraqi Exceptionalism,” Middle East Policy, vol. 7, no. 4, October 2000; Phoebe Marr, “Comment on Isam al-Khafaji’s ‘The Myth of Iraqi Exceptionalism,’ Middle East Policy, vol. 7, no. 4, October 2000; and George Packer, “Dreaming of Democracy,” The New York Times Magazine, Mar. 2, 2003.

  8.Ellen Laipson, “Assessing the Long-Term Challenges,” The Stimson Center, www.stimson.org, Sept. 2002.

  9.Bill Keller, “The Sunshine Warrior,” The New York Times Magazine, Sept. 22, 2002.

  10.Audrey Gillan, “The Regrets of the Man Who Brought Down Saddam,” The Guardian, Mar. 19, 2007.

  11.Helen Chapin Metz, ed., A Country Study: Iraq, Library of Congress, Nov. 8, 2005.

  12.Islam was not the only religion in the new Iraq. When the country was carved out of the Ottoman empire, one third of Baghdad was Jewish. Modern Iraq’s first finance minister was Jewish, as was much of the symphony orchestra and chamber of commerce. Christian denominations included Assyrians, Chaldeans, and Catholics.

  13.Abd el Karim al Uzri, “The Problem of Governance in Iraq,” self-published, London, 1991, pp. 2–9; and Ali Allawi, The Occupation of Iraq: Winning the War, Losing the Peace (New Haven Conn.: Yale University Press, 2007), p. 17.

  14.Ronald L. Kuipers, “Entrance to the Ruins of Babylon,” in A Country Study: Iraq, Helen Chapin Metz, ed. Library of Congress, May 1988.

  15.Ali Allawi, The Occupation of Iraq, p. 162.

  16.In the most extensive advance planning, a panel of Iraqis organized by the State Department in the Future of Iraq Project recommended that 100,000 soldiers should form the nucleus of a new defensive military force. Special Forces should be adapted for work in counterterrorism, antinarcotics, and peacekeeping. Intelligence units could work with American forces in cleaning up any postwar security problems. Military police could focus on internal vulnerabilities, such as pipeline security. Conscripts could be used for agricultural development, postwar reconstruction, and the serious environmental damage that was part of Saddam’s legacy.

  17.Mark Fineman, Warren Vieth, and Robin Wright, “Dissolving Iraqi Army Seen by Many as a Costly Move,” Los Angeles Times, Aug. 24, 2003.

  18.Mark Fineman, Robin Wright, and Doyle McManus, “Washington’s Battle Plan: Preparing for War, Stumbling to Peace, Los Angeles Times, July 18, 2003.

  19.Council on Foreign Relations, Washington, D.C., Apr. 10, 2007.

  20.Mark Fineman, Warren Vieth, and Robin Wright, “Dissolving Iraqi Army Seen by Many as a Costly Move.”

  21.Ibid.

  22.Council on Foreign Relations.

  23.“Iraq War, the Notable Quotes, Reuters, Mar. 8, 2007.

  24.Ali Allawi, The Occupation of Iraq, p. 393.

  25.The shrine was also one of the places where Shiites believe the twelfth and final imam, the Mahdi, went into occultation, or hiding, to return before the Day of Judgment to deliver perfect justice.
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br />   26.Nancy A. Youssef, “These Tatoos Aren’t Artful—They Help Identify Iraq’s Dead,” McClatchy Newspapers, Nov. 1, 2006.

  27.Leila Fadel and Mohammed al Dulaimy, “Violence, Fear Pervade Once-Vibrant Baghdad,” McClatchy Newspapers, Mar. 18, 2007.

  28.Ali Allawi, The Occupation of Iraq, p. 457.

  29.Ibid., pp. 459–60.

  30.Ibid.

  31.Audrey Gillan, “The Regrets of the Man Who Brought Down Saddam,” The Guardian, Mar. 19, 2007.

  32.Vanessa Arrington, “Iraqi Political Cartoonists, Free from Fear of Saddam, Now Face Death Threats from Extremists,” Associated Press, May 13, 2006.

  33.Cameron W. Barr, and Jon Cohen, “Poll Shows Iraqis Feel Quality of Life Has Plunged,” The Washington Post, Mar. 19, 2007.

  34.Solomon Moore, “A Battlefield Called School: Iraq Violence Threatens Teachers and Students: Campuses are Closing,” Los Angeles Times, Dec. 16, 2006.

  35.“A Look at the Iraqi Refugee Situation,” Associated Press, Feb. 12, 2007; and Hamza Hendawi, “Iraq War Spawns a Growing Refugee Problem for Its Neighbors,” Associated Press, Feb. 4, 2007.

  36.Karin Brulliard, “Iraq Reimposes Freeze on Medical Diplomas in Bid to Keep Doctors,” The Washington Post, May 5, 2007.

  37.Christian Berthesen, “Study: One-third of Iraqis Live in Poverty,” Los Angeles Times, Feb. 19, 2007; and “Iraq: Unemployment and Violence Increase Poverty,” UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Oct. 17, 2006.

  38.At its peak in the 1970s, the country with the world’s third-largest oil reserves produced 3.7 million barrels per day. Production varied, but on the war’s fourth anniversary, it produced just over half that—about 2.1 million barrels per day.

  39.Charles J. Hanley, “Bush Plan’s $1 Billion in Aid Would Make Small Dent in Iraq’s Needs,” Associated Press, Jan. 14, 2007.

  40.Cameron W. Barr, and Jon Cohen, “Poll Shows Iraqis Feel Quality of Life Has Plunged,” The Washington Post, Mar. 19, 2007.

  41.“Key Figures About Iraq Since the War Began in March 2003,” Associated Press, Mar. 1, 2007.

  42.Laith Hammoudi, “Traditional Mud Oven Makes a Comeback in Iraq,” McClatchy Newspapers, Mar. 8, 2007.

  43.John F. Burns, “U.S. Finds Insurgency Has Funds to Sustain Itself,” The New York Times, Nov. 26, 2006.