by Lee Brainard
“You mean like not releasing information on dangerous pollutants that a local corporation has allowed to leach into the water system, leaving communities unwarned?”
“Yeah. Something like that.”
“That kind of information needs to be in the hands of the public—without exception. If the government chooses to either ignore the warnings or conceal the information, then folks need to skirt the government and take matters into their own hands.”
“What if you risk your job or your freedom by sharing the information?”
“The amount of risk we face doesn’t affect the principle we are trying to uphold. It only changes the cost we might have to pay.”
Ariele chewed on Woody’s advice for a moment, then smiled and nodded her head. He smiled back. He knew the look. She had made up her mind to go forward . . . whatever it was that was on her mind. She grinned—back to her perky self—and exclaimed, “I’m feeling adventurous. Let’s go to the Hoagie Magician and try the hot sandwich we haven’t tried—Calabrese salami with asiago and pepperoncini.”
7
Caltech
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
Irina fidgeted nervously. For months she had looked forward to defending her thesis The Underestimated Danger Posed by Comets. Now the day was here and she was filled with dread. Her confidence had vanished. She faced six seasoned scientists and one of them, Dr. James Gardner, was a well-known skeptic of NEO danger. He loved to berate the “NEO-apocalypse theory,” insisting that astronomers hyped and exaggerated the danger so they could procure funding to buy cool equipment.
He insisted that the solar system had been in existence for billions of years and that if anyone intelligently considered the ramifications of this fact, they would realize that Earth had long ago swept its orbit clear of every major threat. There was zero danger of a catastrophic event, much less an extinction event—not from an asteroid, not from a comet. In his estimation, the only extinction threat we faced was the death of the sun, and that was millions of years in the future. We had millions of years to prepare—millions of years to move civilization to a younger star elsewhere in the galaxy. Irina could practically recite his mini-lecture denying NEO threat. She had taken two required courses from him and had heard it twenty times.
Fearing that Dr. Gardner would mercilessly pick her thesis apart, Irina had asked her advisor several times to exclude him from her examination committee. But Dr. Shannon Benson had refused. “Life is tough,” she said. “The corporate and academic world can be vicious. It won’t hurt you to start your career with a stiff dose of professional opposition. Besides, the truth has never been hurt by the crucible.”
Dr. Benson opened the session. “Your thesis statement opines, ‘The threat posed to Earth by comets is vastly underestimated.’ Expand on this. What is the crucial point that you believe scientists have overlooked?”
Irina drew in a deep breath and began. “The threat posed by long-period comets is significantly heightened if the theory be true, as a growing community of scientists insist, that comets are stony bodies with the same composition and origin as the asteroids.”
Dr. Gardner snorted, “Pffff . . .” Irina felt her heart skip a beat. She was more intimidated by him than all the others put together. Not only was he virulently opposed to the “NEO-apocalypse theory,” he was also a champion of the dirty-snowball theory against the fledgling theory that comets were rocky bodies. He had written several academic articles against this upstart view, directing all his savvy and his extensive pejorative vocabulary in scathing attacks upon the theory and its advocates. The rocky-comet groupies, as he styled them, whether from mainstream circles or the electric universe camp, were guilty of the same pseudo-science as those who believed in a flat Earth.
She looked over in his direction. Dr. Gardner scowled back with eyebrows furrowed and foot tapping a million miles an hour. He did that when he was angry. Irina grimaced. Way to go . . . offend the Hedgehog on the first question. This could be the longest two hours of her life. She had hoped to avoid his prickliness, but somehow she had managed to rub his fur the wrong way in the first few minutes.
Several long seconds of silence hung in the air like a frozen slice of eternity. Then he barked, “A stoner! Is this your coming-out statement?”
Ouch. Stoner. Her eyes stung and welled with tears. A lump rose in her throat. Her lower lip quivered. He had used his favorite derogatory term for those who believed that comets were essentially the same as asteroids except for their orbits. She felt panic-stricken and wished she could crawl under a rock or suffer a heart attack. She took a deep breath . . . she was stalling . . . she tried to slow her racing pulse.
“How dare you trot out such nonsense on my watch! This is a thesis committee, not a testimony meeting. Do we get your conversion story too? Since when do science and fairy tales belong in the same room?”
She felt the hot magma of indignation start to rise. What a pompous mule! . . . what arrogance! . . . trying to hold her tongue was hard . . . like trying to wrestle a crocodile . . . she sensed the white-hot . . . she turned and stared defiantly into his eyes . . . her body shook with volcanic paroxysms . . . she couldn’t hold it in any longer . . . she was going to unsheathe her sword and flay the old coot.
“Mercy crowns the protector.” All eyes stared at Dr. Jonathan Goldblum. The visiting professor had sat in silence until now. Normally he chaired the Astrophysics Department at Cornell, but he was at Caltech this semester in a faculty exchange with Dr. Erica Melrose. They were teaching each other’s courses and filling in for each other on dissertation committees.
“Go easy on the young lady, Jim. The guardians of the faith need to show some mercy to the acolytes. Besides, you know as well as I do that many in the scientific community, even in the highest echelons, have begun to consider the stony-comet theory. You can’t continue to bury your head in the sand. You need to seriously consider the evidence of the past decade that has scientists scratching their heads. The once fine line between asteroids and comets has become blurred. What if the stony-comet proponents are right?”
“They aren’t right,” the flustered professor groused, staring off into the distance. He refused to meet the gaze of the man who dared to challenge him—an unusual response for the cantankerous old man. Was he intimidated? Unable to answer? Bristling with indignation he turned his attention back to the shaking candidate and said, cold as ice water, “Continue.”
Emboldened by the courage of the knight that had risen to her defense, she blurted out, with enough boldness to startle herself, “I do believe that comets have the same origin and composition as asteroids and that they differ only in their orbital habits. I have taken this position on the basis of five observations that men ought to consider.
“First of all, jets, plumes, and comas have been detected on asteroids, bodies which everyone agrees are composed of stone. The dirty-snowball theory can’t explain the existence of these phenomena on stone bodies. Perhaps the dirty-snowball theory doesn’t explain their existence on comets either.
“Secondly, the comets we have visited with probes have differed widely from the snowball model. They all looked like stone and were as hard as stone—a troublesome fact that gave the experts fits and forced them to resort to the ad hoc explanation that they were stone-covered snowballs.
“Thirdly, the theory that comets are dirty snowballs is based on the theory that comets were formed by large-scale adhesion effected through low-velocity collision. This is an unproven theory that has never been observed in nature or reproduced in any laboratory.
“Fourthly, most of the comets we have visited exhibit minerals which suggest an extremely hot origin, 1400 Kelvin or hotter, rather than an extremely cold origin—as the distant reaches of the Oort Cloud. Forsterite and pyroxene are two examples.
“Fifthly, the electrolysis of hydrocarbons better explains the coma than the sublimation of water ice does. No one has ever demonstrated the sublimation of water ice in a v
acuum at temperatures from -125° Celsius to -200° Celsius when subjected to remote sources of light or heat. The electric model of the coma, on the other hand, can be easily replicated in the laboratory using well-known principles of electrochemistry which are comprehensible by any electrical engineering student.
“As a comet approaches the Sun, a charge imbalance develops, which produces cathode sparks. These sparks strip atoms of oxygen away from the mineral surface and ionize them. These ions are then accelerated away from the comet in electric jets and mingled with hydrogen ions from the Sun’s solar wind to form the coma, a cloud of ionized atoms. Some of the oxygen ions combine with hydrogen ions to form the hydroxyls like hydrogen peroxide that are evident in the coma.
“In the light of such observations, I am convinced that comets are rocky bodies, not icy bodies, and that the coma is the result of electrically induced ionization, not the sublimation of ice. The bright coma we see on a comet, in other words, should be compared to the bright glow of the northern lights, not to the dull cloud made by dry ice in the kitchen sink.” That felt good. Way better than erupting.
The examiners sat in stunned silence, surprised by this unexpected display of spunkiness. Several melted into broad smiles. She hoped they were pleasant-surprise smiles and not nervous-reaction smiles. But perhaps it didn’t matter.
Dr. Naismith inquired, “What do you mean when you say that comets and asteroids share a common origin?”
Irina hesitated, nervous that she was under attack again. “I mean that when you examine the similarities between comets and asteroids, you are drawn to the conclusion that they share a common origin.”
“What do you think this common origin was?” He glared coldly at her, waiting for her to step into his trap. “You do have an opinion don’t you? . . . a cherished model on the origin of your rocky comets . . . why be evasive? . . . why not simply acknowledge that your rocky-comet theory is dependent on the assumption of the exploded-planet theory? . . . the theory that there used to be a planet orbiting between Mars and Jupiter . . . and that this planet was hit by a larger planet and exploded.”
He cocked his head haughtily and continued, “You are aware, aren’t you, that the exploded-planet theory has been debunked? . . . that the asteroids only tally about five percent of the necessary mass for a planet the size of Mars . . . that even if you throw in all the comets and all the meteorites that have impacted Earth, you are still lacking ninety percent of the required mass.” When he finished his attack, he sat back in his chair, folded his arms, and smugly stared her down . . . obviously proud of the prowess he had just displayed in destroying her position.
Irina groaned inside. This is getting started on the wrong foot right out of the gate. “First of all, observational science does not depend on explanatory theory to be valid. Secondly, I do believe that a planet once orbited between Mars and Jupiter . . . that somewhere in the distant past it tangled with a larger planet and lost the altercation . . . that it was shattered and scattered . . . that those fragments which stayed in the same orbital plane became the asteroid belt . . . that those which took on long-period orbits became comets . . . that others became Centaurs and Hilda asteroids . . . and that others yet were captured by planets becoming Trojans and moons. Thirdly, my own investigations and calculations suggest that there is no missing mass problem.”
But Dr. Naismith was not going to let the matter rest. “So, when did this event occur?”
“Whether this event occurred in recent history or whether it occurred tens of millions of years ago is irrelevant to the question of gauging the threat that the fragments pose to our planet.”
“You didn’t answer my question. In your opinion, when did this event occur?”
Irina took two deep breaths trying to relax. She racked her brain trying to find some repartee to extricate herself from this baited question without looking small. She cleared her throat and hesitatingly began, “Well . . . I um . . .”
Dr. Goldblum interjected, addressing the whole group, “I myself am inclined toward the theory that the asteroids and the stony comets both trace their origin to a former planet that exploded in the past, though I would date that seminal event at tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions of years ago. And I agree with Miss Kirilenko that the time of that event is somewhat academic while the threat which the remnants of that event pose for Earth is of paramount importance. So, for the sake of focusing on the real issue, let’s accept her thesis of planetary origin as a legitimate working model, turn our attention away from theories on when this planet exploded, and focus on the threat that we face from comets if her model is true in its primary points.”
Irina breathed a sigh of relief. Her knight had ridden to her rescue once again.
Dr. Evans, herself a little fascinated with Irina’s theory of rocky comets, took the questioning in a different direction. “Assuming that comets are fragments of a former planet rather than conglomerations of ice and dust formed in the Oort Cloud, then how many comets do you suppose there are?”
Irina, relieved to field a question from an ally, calmly replied, “I estimate that the number of comets of significant size is approximately 1.25 million.”
Dr. Gardner snarled, “Define significant size.” He was obviously still feeling ornery.
“By significant size, I mean significant enough to cause significant damage on Earth.” She winced, That was lame . . . using significant to define significant.
Dr. Gardner barked, “How about giving an objective size for a definition rather than an amateur display of subjective terminology? Significant is not quantifiable.”
Irina calmed herself and replied, “I utilized the commonly employed threshold of one kilometer or larger in diameter.”
Dr. Naismith interjected, “Why do you stick to the bottom of the estimate range for the number of comets in our solar system rather than employing at least the median or the average of the estimate range? Either one would still give the appearance of a conservative estimate. It seems strange to use such a diminutive estimate when your aim is to impress the academic world with an argument that Earth faces a serious threat from comets.”
Irina was fuming inside. Dr. Gardner’s little sycophant was testing her patience. “Because I am constrained by the parameters of my own theory. I believe that comets have the same origin as asteroids, therefore I am not at liberty to bolster my case with the vast estimates—hundreds of millions or billions—that are based on the theory that comets originate in the Oort Cloud. And if comets have the same origin as the asteroids, then the number of comets is correlated with the number of asteroids. The estimates for the number of asteroids larger than one kilometer in diameter range from 800,000 to 1.25 million. I settled on one million for my estimate, which is approximately in the middle.”
Dr. Goldblum raised his eyebrows and asked, “If you have 1.25 million comets and one million asteroids, you have a ratio of 1.25 to 1. How did you arrive at this correlation?”
“Based on my crude estimates of the mass, size, angle, and speed of the destroyed body and the destroying body—the former being about the size of Mars and orbiting in the center of the current asteroid belt, the latter being Venus and approaching it in approximately the same direction at a twenty-five degree angle—I calculated that the escaped fragments would exceed the retained fragments by a ratio of 2.5 to 1. Half of the escaped fragments, 1.25 million, became comets and the other half became Trojans, Centaurs, TNOs, Hilda asteroids, and moons.
Dr. Naismith sneered, “Crude estimations?”
Irina retorted a little testily—the little wiener was really starting to get under her skin—“Many an advance in science started with a crude idea, crude theory, or crude estimate.”
Dr. Goldblum’s face slowly crept into a restrained grin. With a twinkle in his eye, he shook his head in disbelief, or was it amazement?
I think he likes what he is hearing . . . hard to tell, though, whether or not he agrees with what I’m saying . .
. maybe he just likes independent thinkers.
He broke his silence, “I am intrigued by your opinion that there is no missing mass problem. What insight have the rest of us missed?”
“The missing factor is the size distribution of the fragments that would be expected if a Mars-sized planet was shattered by a Venus-sized planet that trespassed its Roche limit at an angle of forty degrees. Dr. Gregory Jenkins of Jet Propulsion Laboratory, a well-known pioneer in the rocky-comet field, calculated the probable size distribution of the fragments in such a scenario. He discovered that the greater the diameter, the higher the percentage of the fragments that would be ejected. When plotted for size, the ratios of ejected fragments to retained fragments make a parabolic curve.
“He made similar calculations for the distribution of the ejected fragments. The greater the diameter, the higher the percentage of the fragments that would resist capture (to become Hilda asteroids, Centaurs, Trojans, moons, and TNOs) and maintain a cometary orbit. When plotted across the range of sizes, the ratios of comet fragments to captured fragments makes a parabolic curve.
“Based on his calculations, I was able to make two estimations. First of all, four percent of the mass would have stayed in the original orbital plane and become the asteroid belt, eight percent of mass would have been ejected and captured as Hilda asteroids, Trojans, Centaurs, moons, and TNOs, and eighty-eight percent of the mass would have been ejected and taken up cometary orbits.
“Secondly, there are approximately one million comets that are one to fifty kilometers in diameter, about the same as the asteroid belt . . . four hundred that are fifty to two hundred kilometers in diameter, which is twice as many as the asteroid belt . . . seventy that are two hundred to five hundred kilometers in diameter, which is five times more than the asteroid belt . . . plus fifteen fragments that are greater than five hundred kilometers, which is a fifteen times more than the asteroid belt, plus one or more moons. I also—”
