by Lee Brainard
“The standard explanation claims that this was a wind-driven wood-structure fire, but this contradicts the facts. First of all, the fire rapidly expanded in the face of a forty-mile-per-hour gale. Secondly, the fires burned far hotter than any wood-structure fire is capable of burning.”
Dr. Goldblum sat silently for a few moments, processing this information, then replied in a non-committal way, “Hmm. Fascinating.”
That’s it? . . . just fascinating? . . . was that an “interested” fascinating or a “skeptical” fascinating? . . . am I being lumped with Edwin Hubble or with sasquatch researchers?
Dr. Goldblum continued, “The concept that the Peshtigo, Chicago, and Moscow fires involved some sort of fire from heaven is plausible, and the idea that Earth could pass through the tail of a comet is plausible . . . but . . . the notion that some of the phenomena evidenced in the Moscow fire, the Midwest fires, and the New Madrid earthquake were electrical . . . well . . . to put it bluntly . . . you’re stretching me . . . I’m just not prepared to embrace the theory that comets are electrically charged bodies and their comas are clouds of charged particles.”
Irina felt her heart deflating. I guess that classes me with the sasquatch researchers. But she resisted the impulse to sink into defeat. With a little sass she replied, “If we look at the facts of what transpired in these types of events, we are forced to conclude that there are dynamics involved which require much more research to understand and explain. But we are far better off if we own the facts of what occurred, even if we don’t understand them, than if we sweep those facts under the rug and pretend that they didn’t happen. It’s not science when we sweep inconvenient facts under the rug and continue our allegiance to theories that are challenged by the facts under the rug.”
Dr. Goldblum stroked his chin reflectively, appreciating her sass, and probed the matter further, “Okay . . . you gave me three examples which merit further investigation . . . but does the historical record really indicate that we can expect three events of this magnitude per century?”
“It certainly does. But the point demands clarification. There are no official records of comet events that are publicly archived in government publications like there are with volcanoes, hurricanes, and earthquakes. We can’t just go to the library and ask for the comet publication. The accounts of unrecognized comet events must be ferreted out from tens of thousands of sources. And while a handful of academics and amateurs have taken it upon themselves to publish the results of their investigations in this field, both online and in books, these collections are far from complete. They only scratch the surface.”
Dr. Goldblum nodded. He understood the complexity of the situation.
Dr. Evans changed the direction of the exam, “What was the rationale behind your classification system?”
“My system is based on the pragmatic observation that it is vastly more practical to classify comet events by the damage they cause rather than their estimated size.”
“And you divided comet events into six classes, correct?”
“Yes. My system divides comet events—regardless of the manifested phenomena—into six classes.
“Class F events result in minor damage, like a small meteorite punching a hole in a roof, or making a tiny crater in someone’s backyard, or destroying a small shed.
“Class E events result in localized destruction that ranges from a house to a city block in extent.
“Class D events result in more extensive devastation that ranges from a city block to a small village in extent.
“Class C events result in widespread damage that ranges from a town to a city in extent. The Peshtigo fire, the Chicago fire, and the Moscow fire are recent examples. In urban areas this class can result in dozens or even hundreds of fatalities along with the devastation.
“Class B events result in vast destruction that can engulf dozens of square kilometers. Tunguska in 1908, Rio Curucu in 1930, and West Marudi Mountain in 1935 are three recent examples. Thankfully, all of them landed in forested regions. A Tunguska-size blast would level New York City.
“Class A events, also known as Minoa class, result in regional devastation comparable to the cataclysm which devastated the Minoan, Mycenaean, and Hittite empires— and brought the Bronze Age to a close. The world, of course, hasn’t witnessed a Class A event since that awful day some 3500 years ago.”
Dr. Evans sought a little clarification, “When you say three major events per century, do you meant three events that are class C or larger?”
“Correct. But I would add two caveats. First of all, the past two centuries saw four class C or higher events. And last century saw three class B events. This uptick could be the harbinger of the coming swarm. Secondly, class A events must be regarded as black swans. We do not have a large enough sample of occurrences to make predictions on their frequency.”
The group took a ten-minute recess. Irina was glad for the break. It gave her a chance to relax and refocus. While she was satisfied with how the first half of the exam went, she was nervous about the upcoming hour, when she would present her methodology for searching for comets and TNOs. While she wanted her exam to be well-received by the committee as a whole, she was especially concerned about making a positive impression on Dr. Goldblum. When she first heard that he was going to teach a semester at Caltech in an exchange program, she was ecstatic. Not only did he lead one of the most prestigious TNO programs in the world at Cornell University, he also had a reputation for being a maverick. He wasn’t intimidated by the high priests of relativity who maintained domination through a peer-review system that required everyone to utter the sacred shibboleths if they wanted to be published. He was friendly toward the electric universe theory though he had, at least not publicly, endorsed it. Perhaps this was her golden opportunity to land a position in TNO research—despite her heresy.
Dr. Goldblum opened the second hour, “Expound a little on your ninja terminology.”
Irina replied, “Ninjas were a class of Japanese warriors renowned for their stealthiness. Likewise, ninja comets are known for their exceptional ability to avoid detection. While all comets are stealthy—being cooled in deep space to such low temperatures that Earth-based infrared telescopes can’t detect them until they warm up, usually inside Neptune—ninjas have enhanced stealthiness that stems from four traits: two innate and two external.
“The first innate stealth factor is low albedo. A comet with an albedo under 0.03 would be twice as dark as coal—making it difficult to see. A comet the size of Makemake with an albedo of 0.0145—the lowest recorded value for a single face—would be so dark that it could sneak inside Jupiter without being detected by optical telescopes until it formed a coma.
“The second innate factor is low angle of approach. If a comet was approaching Earth at or near the ecliptic, it would be difficult to detect with standard image-scanning software. These programs are designed to exclude objects moving less than 1.5 arcseconds per hour in an effort to eliminate false positives. This is problematic for comets approaching our planet at low angles, for they are generally moving less than 1.5 arcseconds per hour.
“The first external stealth factor is low sunspot activity. Normally comets develop a coma between Jupiter and the asteroid belt. During low sunspot cycles, the solar wind decreases significantly, allowing comets to draw closer to the Sun before they form a coma. During an extended period of low sunspot activity with an unusual doldrum of solar wind activity, a comet might not develop a coma until somewhere between the asteroid belt and Mars. That would leave us with very little warning.
“The second external stealth factor is poor atmospheric conditions on Earth. If the upper atmosphere was clouded by ash from a Tambora-class volcanic eruption in the equatorial region, the ability of Earth-based telescopes to detect comets would be significantly degraded for several years.”
Dr. Goldblum raised a challenge, “Your sunspot activity point is contingent on the electric universe assumption that the coma
is formed by ionization, not sublimation.”
“Yes. But I do not regard ionization as an assumption. When you examine the correlation between solar wind speed and the distance a comet penetrates the inner solar system before it develops a coma, you realize that the coma isn’t caused by sublimation. If it were caused by sublimation, then the coma would always appear at the same distance from the Sun, within a relatively tight range.”
He ignored her response and moved on, “So, what is your suggestion for an early warning system?”
“We need to have several satellites devoted to the search for incoming comets—medium-band infrared eyes in the sky. This will significantly increase our forewarning time. The plates should be analyzed immediately by a dedicated team utilizing software that doesn’t automatically exclude motion less than 1.5 arcseconds per hour as a false positive. And the satellites should have the ability to broadcast data back to Earth even if our atmosphere is blanketed with volcanic ash.
“The way things stand right now, we often face a huge information lag. Sometimes months, if not years, pass before bodies are discovered on the plates by researchers. While this isn’t a big deal when dealing with asteroids and TNOs, it can be a tragic loss of preparation time when dealing with comets.”
Dr. Goldblum nodded slightly—was that a twinkle in his eye?—then continued as if nothing noteworthy had been said.
He turned to Irina’s methodology. “How do you propose to conduct an Earth-based early-warning search program for long-period comets that threaten Earth?”
Irina suppressed a grin, “My methodology employs an indirect detection strategy rather than direct. It searches for the occultation of stars on optical and infrared plates using software I designed myself. The program runs several scans, including two that search for very-low-arcsecond changes, lower than any existing software, enabling the detection of comets approaching Earth at or near the ecliptic.”
Dr. Goldblum, “If you intend to scan for low-arcsecond changes, how are you going to prevent your program from overwhelming you with false positives?”
“My program eliminates most false positives because it only flags positives based on two or more consecutive plate changes—the number is adjustable. The program can also skip plates if desired. For instance, if a team is examining two years of plates taken one week apart, they can set the program to skip every other plate, so they are examining movement over a two-week window instead of a one-week window. They can set the program to give them odd plates, or even plates, or alternated plates like one and three, two and four, three and five, et cetera, or customized sequences.”
Dr. Goldblum nodded agreeably, “I like your ideas. We are on the same page in this regard. Stellar occultation is the methodology of choice. And your idea to mix a multi-plate-identification function with a plate-skipping function is the best way to eliminate false positives. You may be interested to know that we happen to be working on a similar search program at Cornell.”
Irina perked up again. Was that a hint that I might be a good fit at Cornell? . . . that I might get to take in a concert at Tannery Pond this fall?
The remainder of the examination was a blur of technical questions: delving into the inner workings of her software, seeking technical clarification on how her search program differed from those currently in use, and inquiring how her program manages the differences between searching for TNOs and searching for comets. Irina answered the questions satisfactorily, but the endless barrage wore her down.
She had just started to pray that her trial might soon pass when Dr. Benson brought the examination to a close. “Well, that wraps it up for the technical questions. But I have one further question—a personal question—I would like to ask before turning it over to Dr. Goldblum for closing remarks.” She turned to Irina, “What do you hope to accomplish in the field of astronomy?”
Irina responded, “I would love to discover several TNOs and at least one long-period comet. But more importantly, I want to change the NEO landscape. People aren’t worried about them. As long as no asteroid lands in their backyard, they don’t care. They have a hard time imagining how a one kilometer asteroid landing in some other country thousands of miles away would affect them apart from dominating the evening news or interrupting the ball game. The way they see things, they will still be able to buy a cheeseburger and fries the next day.
“I want them to understand that the worse case scenario is not a one-kilometer asteroid landing in a distant corner of Earth. It is a large comet devastating their own neighborhood with a Tunguska-size cataclysm—or larger. And I want them to understand that such devastation is not an IF question but a WHEN question. The odds are against us. It is only a matter of time. Will we be prepared?” Hope that wasn’t too melodramatic . . . seemed pretty tame compared to some of my earlier remarks.
Dr. Benson turned and nodded to Dr. Goldblum, whom she had invited to close the examination with a few remarks.
He nodded back, looked at Irina, and began, “I appreciate your theory that comets are rocky bodies with the same origin and composition as asteroids. My own views are similar, though I blend the rocky-comet theory and the dirty-snowball theory. Personally, I believe that the planetary explosion occurred in prehistory millions of years ago.
“Despite a few minor quirks, your thesis makes a valuable contribution to comet work, both in regards to risk analysis and in regards to cost-effective search methods that can help us discern threatening comets years before they arrive in the inner solar system.”
The room was quiet. Dr. Benson smiled at her, and so did Dr. Evans. Dr. Naismith rose from his chair, and the rest of the committee members followed suit. It was over. It was really over. Irina slumped in her chair. She felt like laughing, crying, and hibernating all at the same time.
The committee members filed out the door into the hallway, shut the door behind them, and talked animatedly in the hallway for several minutes. Then they filed back in. Dr. Benson took the warrant out of her folder, set it on the table near the coffee urn, and signed it herself. One by one, with Dr. Naismith last in line, they signed it.
Dr. Benson shook Irina’s hand, congratulated her, picked up the warrant, and went on a mission to track down Dr. Gardner. She later related the story to Irina—the two of them shared a good laugh over it—the old curmudgeon took some convincing, but he did finally and grudgingly sign it, muttering, “How can such a bright girl be a stoner?”
Irina shook hands with each of the committee members, Dr. Goldblum holding back for the end of the line. When his turn came, she said “Thank you” with more warmth than she had intended. He gripped her hand with a firm masculine handshake, pumped her hand vigorously, then withdrew his hand, reached into his suit coat pocket, pulled out one of his business cards, quickly scribbled a note on the back, and handed it to her. “Give me a call next week at my office, anytime after Monday.” As he walked away he thought to himself, On the negative side . . . she’s a little bit of a religious fanatic . . . on the positive side . . . she’s exceptionally brilliant . . . she’s an independent-thinker . . . not to mention . . . she’s classy and sassy.
She turned the card over. It said, “Consider Cornell.” There was nothing to consider. If he wanted her to join his research program at Cornell, it was a done deal.
As she walked back to her car she felt like an emotional train wreck, both worn out and excited. It was time for a bowl of her favorite ice cream. She could almost taste the cherries, the walnut and pecan slivers, the fudge and caramel globs, and the dark-chocolate-covered coffee beans thickly scattered in a coffee-toffee swirl—Train Wreck here I come.
8
Washington, D.C.
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
Jack Lundstrom sat in his usual booth at Madigan’s, slowly picking away at his steak and fries, and watching the news on the big screen television. He ate most of his evening meals here. Apart from occasionally grilling on weekends, he simply didn’t like to cook. He had settled on t
his place two years ago, shortly after his wife Emily had passed away. He liked the food. More importantly, he liked the atmosphere. It was quieter than the restaurants haunted by college students and boisterous millennials on the first rung or two of their career path. The clientele were older professionals and government officials—few under forty. No loud tables ordered round after round of beer. The television was always tuned to CVN, the Conservative Viewpoint Network.
He shook his head and sighed as he absorbed another dose of bad news. Definitely not the world I grew up in. Another bombing in Europe, this time in Paris, France. More extremist activity in Iraq and Afghanistan. Are we actually fighting the extremists or just playing an aggressive game of bloody knuckles? The proxy war going on in Syria. More boots headed to Iraq. Another police brutality case—was the cop an unfit goon in blue or an innocent man being framed for political gain? More riots in Baltimore and Boston. More slimy dealings on Wall Street. More mudslinging in the primaries. The crap was six feet high and rising.
Head propped in hand he stared at the screen, listening as the commentators provided the latest news on Iran’s efforts to build a ballistic-missile arsenal, the growing frustration among the Palestinians, the simmering ambition of many of Israel’s neighbors to get revenge for their past defeats, Iran’s threat—echoed by other nations—to drive Israel into the sea, and Israel’s vow that the next war will be the last war. Lots of pressure building up in the Middle East . . . reminds me of the quasi-Shakespearean quote, “An ill wind doth blow” . . . seems like the stage is being set for the last days to begin and the Middle East to explode . . . Woody and I definitely won’t lack for things to talk about this summer in Montana.
9
Sierra Coffee Company, Glendale, CA
