by James Rosone
Continuing, he added, “At some point, we as a nation have to stand up and defend our interests. At the end of the Cold War, the Americans and NATO agreed that they would not expand NATO’s borders closer to our own. Then they accepted the Baltic States, Poland, Hungary and Romania into their fold. They tried to add Georgia and now they want to add Ukraine. Russia has held up our end of the Cold War deal, it is NATO and the Americans who have not.”
Then Petrov turned to the Foreign Minister. “Kozlov,” he began, “we have been discussing a referendum with the separatist leaders, one that would support them leaving the Ukraine and forming their own country, their own government. Their leader said they are going to announce this shortly. I believe we should move diplomatically to get things rolling with them, get our own allies to support and recognize them as a country once the election is over. I believe it is now time for us to work with these separatist leaders openly and move to have the referendum take place during our “no-fly” zone.”
Looking at his advisors and seeing them nod their heads, Petrov felt a bit more confident in this decision. “Once we institute the “no-fly” zone, I want us to issue an ultimatum to the Ukrainian government. We will tell them that they need to withdraw their military from the east so a referendum can be held, and the UN can be brought in to monitor a vote. If the people vote to leave and form their own country, then Ukraine must abide by it. If they vote to remain, then we will leave eastern Ukraine and withdraw our support from them.”
No one seemed to have any objections. There was a moment of silence as Petrov continued to formulate the plan in his mind. Then he asserted, “I also want some of our forces to cross into Ukraine at the appointed time as ‘peacekeepers’ to protect the civilian population from the fascist government forces. They have killed nearly two thousand civilians in the last few weeks. It’s time to send forces in there to help protect them from this illegitimate dictatorship so that a vote can take place.”
The President paused for a moment, sitting back in his chair and looked at some of the pictures on the wall as he thought about what this would all mean. He took a deep breath and slowly exhaled. “I know this action may push us closer to a confrontation with the West. The EU and the Americans need to learn that not every vote goes their way, that sometimes, people do not want to embrace their form of democracy. The EU also needs our natural gas and oil, and this will only become more acute as we get closer to winter. While the Americans may threaten us, I do not believe the EU will follow through on any threat of military force. If they do, we simply turn off their gas and oil and refuse to turn it back on. In the meantime, I want us to begin preparation for a limited war with the West. I hope it does not come to that, but I want our military to move to a war footing and begin preparations to deal with the threat,” Petrov said, very seriously.
Looking at his Minister of Defense, he ordered, “Begin to have some of our subs and other ships move to shadow the American and NATO warships in the Baltic and Black Sea. Also, have our cyber hackers prepare their zero-day attacks against Ukraine and Europe. If the Americans do decide they want a fight, then we will make them realize there is more than one way to fight and win a war,” the President said with a sly smile.
The others in the room nodded their heads and smiled as well. They all knew what he meant. The future of warfare was not necessarily going to be through the conventional fight. Russia had spent over a decade building an incredibly talented army of cyber hackers. They had spent years developing a broad portfolio of skilled individuals, testing various countries’ cyber defenses. They had even carried out several major cyber-attacks, like the time they hit the Georgian government communications system the day that the Russian forces invaded, or when they had successfully taken down a Ukrainian powerplant. These attacks proved they could reach out through the digital world and cause damage in the physical realm.
The meeting began to wind down. There were some clarifying questions on the President’s orders, but the overall directives were untouched.
As soon as the official business with Petrov ended, Colonel General Boris Egorkin grabbed a secured line and began to issue mobilization orders to the 1st Tank Army, telling them to begin deploying to various military bases within striking distance of Ukraine. He also began to mobilize the 6th Army, ordering them to prepare to follow the 1st Tank Army into Ukraine if an assault order were to be given.
Foreign Minister Dmitry Kozlov stayed back to talk longer with the President about the timeline of the referendum vote, the issues surrounding getting a UN observer in there, and the deployment of Russian soldiers to remove the Ukrainian forces from east Ukraine so a vote could be held. They also discussed the media campaign and how that would be waged to sway public opinion.
Petrov got an almost nauseated look on his face. “Kozlov, I want you to show unedited footage of all of the dead bodies of our soldiers from the raid the Americans just carried out. Run news articles on the families of the soldiers who were killed--I want it to be clear that the U.S. and NATO are the true aggressors, not Russia. It should be full-court press to humiliate and pressure the Americans to leave Ukraine and end their support of this fascist regime in Kiev. We need to paint Prime Minister Groysman for what he is…a monster who is only bent on exacting revenge and killing those who oppose him.”
Red Storm
Moscow, Russia
Chinese Embassy
After going over some of the finer details of Operation Red Storm with the President, it was time for Foreign Minister Dmitry Kozlov to get things rolling with the Chinese. His office phoned ahead and said he needed to speak directly with the Ambassador, in person. The officials at the embassy told Kozlov’s aide they would be ready for his arrival.
As Minister Kozlov’s fancy black Mercedes Benz pulled up to the Embassy, several guards were there to open his door and lead him into the Embassy. He quickly made his way up to the Ambassador’s office, where he saw Ambassador Yin waiting to receive him.
Smiling, Yin offered his hand. “This is a most welcome surprise, Minister Kozlov. To what do I owe this surprise visit?”
While he was quite welcoming, the ambassador had been thrown off by this sudden interruption in his schedule. “I wonder what has happened to cause this short-notice meeting?” he wondered. “And why is he here in my office instead of talking to me on the phone?”
Kozlov jumped right into it. “I am sorry for the short notice, but this could not be discussed over the phone, it needed to be done in person. I needed to tell you that it is time to move forward with Red Storm.” His voice was quiet, almost hushed.
Kozlov saw the Ambassador nod his head, a slight smile forming on his face. The Chinese had been waiting for this day as well. It was finally time for them to reassert their dominance in Asia as the hegemon, not the US.
“I understand. I will let Chairman Zhang know Russia is now moving forward,” Yin replied as Minister Kozlov got up and made his way out of his office. Nothing more needed to be said; the two countries had been coordinating this plan for years, each slowly implementing their various parts until they were ready to initiate the entire plan. Now, it was time to move forward and begin the final preparations that would change the military and political dimensions of the world.
Consequences
Kiev, Ukraine
Office of the Prime Minister
Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman was nervous as he lit his fourth cigarette of the day at the early hour of 11am. He was absolutely incensed that President Petrov had the audacity to declare a no-fly zone over nearly half of his country. As if that weren’t enough, Petrov was backing the separatist leaders’ call for a referendum vote. As he angrily huffed on his Ziganov, a vein on his forehead was visibly pulsating. “I have no way of stopping this,” he bemoaned to himself. “Unless the Americans and NATO are willing to intercede, my air force (or what’s left of it) will be grounded.”
Despite his negative mood, a glimmer of hope was seated not that fa
r from him. Sitting nearby in the formal meeting room next to his office were the American Secretary of State, Travis Johnson, the Deputy Commander of US European Command (EUCOM), Lieutenant General James Cotton, Ambassador Duncan Rice and his senior defense official, General Luka. There was also a small crowd of aides sitting down at the end of the table with note pads and pens, ready to take notes. The steward poured everyone a cup of coffee and placed a small tray of snacks on the table before he left the room, closing the double oak doors behind him.
Once Groysman saw his trusty steward enter the room, he quickly put out the rest of cigarette and walked into the room. His military chief of staff, Lieutenant General (LTG) Serhiv Popko, and two of his aides were already there waiting for him as well.
The Prime Minister took a deep breath to calm himself before he spoke. “Mr. Secretary, what the Russians have announced is tantamount to war against my country. We are in the middle of a civil war that has lasted for three years because they have been supporting and propping up the pro-Russian separatists. Thousands of civilians have died, tens of thousands more have been displaced. What can America do to help us in this crisis?” he implored, looking the Secretary of State in the eyes with an unrelenting stare.
Secretary Johnson was still trying to figure out exactly how far they could push the issue with Russia. In the past three days, the Pryluky airbase that the US and NATO had leased from the government had come under nearly a dozen heavy mortar attacks. Six Americans had been killed and 15 others had been injured. NATO had also lost eight soldiers in the attacks, with another 17 wounded. The media were asking a lot of questions about what exactly the US and NATO were doing in the Ukraine.
The Secretary glanced towards the Deputy EUCOM Commander before responding in his thick Texas accent, “Mr. Prime Minister, our President understands the tough situation you are in right now. We want to help, but we also want to make sure things do not spiral out of control any further. As you know, the Pryluky airbase has come under attack multiple times since our Special Forces rescued our two people who had been captured eight days ago. President Gates has affirmed that he wants to provide more support to your government in these trying times. I have been authorized by the President, and our Congress, to provide Ukraine with $1.8 billion in foreign aid to help shore up your economy and put more people in your country back to work.”
“I hope there’s more,” thought Groysman. “I won’t be able to fight off the Russians with a lower unemployment rate.”
Secretary of State Johnson nodded to LTG Cotton to speak next.
“My Command has also been authorized by the Secretary of Defense and the President to provide a significant increase in military aid and assistance. We going to give your military 400 additional MRAP vehicles and 350 Stryker infantry fighting vehicles. We are also going to give your army 90 M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks (MBTs). To assist the integration of your forces with this additional equipment, we are also going to provide 900 military trainers and civilian contractors to help train your forces on the maintenance and servicing of the vehicles.” He brought out a stack of folders, which had the details of the military aid that would be provided, and handed them out to the Ukrainians.
Even though the crowd was still rummaging through the folders, General Cotton continued, “This, of course, is not an overnight solution, and it will take time to implement. We can start the shipment of vehicles and equipment to your country tomorrow, but we are still looking at several months before most of this equipment arrives and we can begin to train your forces on it.”
Secretary Johnson spoke up again, “We are committed to helping your government gain control of all of Ukraine. We also know it will take time to get your forces trained up to handle this task. Your military has made some great progress these past six weeks, and we know you have suffered heavy losses. We hope this infusion of cash, military equipment, trainers, and additional advisors will help your government succeed in finishing off this pro-Russian separatist movement.” He spoke calmly, as if they were talking about a business deal selling computers and not military hardware for the purpose of killing their fellow countrymen.
The Prime Minister sat back in his chair, digesting what he was just told. While the money and military equipment were greatly needed and would aid them immensely in their struggle, it still did not address the problem of what to do about the no-fly zone being imposed on their country, or this pending referendum vote.
“Mr. Secretary, my country is grateful for the help and assistance, we truly are. We would not have had the success we have had up to this point without the help and assistance of America and NATO. However, the assistance you are currently offering does not address the larger issue of the no-fly zone or this referendum. How are we going to handle this? What is America’s solution for dealing with this?” Groysman asked, somewhat annoyed.
“We are not 100% certain that the Russians will actually enforce the no-fly zone. We think they are blustering and hoping that the threat of it will cause you to come to the negotiating table and give in. As to the referendum vote, I will leave that to Secretary Johnson to answer,” General Cotton answered.
Secretary Johnson nodded, adding, “With regards to the vote, we will not recognize the results. We will work with the rest of the NATO members and the EU to also deny the authority of the results.”
The Ukrainian general, General Serhiy Popko, interjected, “So is America going to test the no-fly zone with one of your aircraft? We have already lost nearly 40% of our air force in the last six weeks. We cannot afford to lose additional aircraft to test your theory,” he said, somewhat incensed that the Americans do not seem to be taking this threat seriously.
Since this was a military question, General Cotton responded, “As a matter of fact, yes, we are planning on using one of our aircraft to test the Russians’ resolve. When the no-fly zone goes into effect tomorrow, America (along with NATO) will fly several combat aircraft through it, within Ukrainian airspace.”
He paused briefly. Hearing no objections or questions, Cotton continued, “The Germans will be flying two Eurofighters and we will have two of our F-16s fly a joint patrol within Ukrainian airspace, along the border. If the Russians do engage our aircraft, then we will respond. The aircraft in question will be carrying anti-radar missiles and jamming equipment, just in case.”
General Popko leaned back in his chair, smiling proudly. The Americans really were going to honor their word to protect Ukraine and stand up to Vladimir Petrov after all. “I must say, I did not believe you would test their resolve,” he said. He was grateful, though he was a bit concerned if things went south.
Secretary Johnson smiled and let a laugh escape his mouth, “There is a new President in America, and he is not afraid of Petrov or anyone else in the world,” he said to the snickering of some of his aides.
Ambassador Rice stayed silent through the two-hour meeting. He could not believe what he was hearing. Not only was the President an inexperienced novice at running a government, his Secretary of State was a Texas cowboy as well. They were going to openly test Petrov, forcing him to either lose face or engage them. “Don’t they realize that wars have started over smaller missteps and mistakes than these?” he thought. “Nothing good can possibly come from this tomorrow when those American and German aircraft cross into that no-fly zone.”
No-Fly Zone
Moscow, Russia
Kremlin, Office of the President
Kozlov and Semenov walked into the parlor room to see President Petrov talking with General Egorkin, General Kuznetsov from the Air Force, and Admiral Petrukhin from the Navy. As they made their way to join them, they noticed the four of them were sipping on some vodka. It was only 9am--clearly the President was in a good mood if he was having a drink this early with his senior military leaders. They took their seats as a steward brought them a glass of vodka and placed the bottle between them.
Petrov was finishing a story of when he had been the KGB Director in East
Germany; he was bemoaning the struggles and mistakes the Soviet Union had made back then in dealing with the West. The President was determined to right some of those wrongs now and create a newer, stronger Russia that was as robust economically as it was militarily.
President Petrov turned to the new arrivals in the room. “General Kuznetsov tells me our air-defense systems are operational. We have a multi-layered defense, able to defeat anything the Americans throw at them. General Egorkin assures me that our missile defense system protecting our air-defense systems are also ready. So, when the no-fly zone goes into effect in forty-seven minutes, I want any US, NATO or Ukrainian aircraft and drones flying over it to be engaged. I want them shot down,” the President said resolutely. He raised a glass of vodka to his generals as a salute and downed it with one gulp.
Kozlov felt he should press the President one last time before it was too late to turn back. “Are you sure you want to do this, Mr. President? We have already turned world opinion against the Americans for their attack on our soldiers. We are gaining in global sympathy and moving forward with the referendum vote. I do not want to lose our progress,” he said. Although Kozlov was hoping to approach things differently, he too raised his glass of vodka and took a sip. He was hoping he could get by with nursing just the one glass; he wanted to keep his wits about him for what he was sure would be a long day.
“Shoygu, did the Americans shoot down a Syrian helicopter that they said strayed into the no-fly zone they implemented in Syria a few months ago?” asked Petrov.
“Yes, they did shoot down the helicopter, Mr. President. They even threatened to shoot down one of our own before we turned around and went back to base.”
