by James Rosone
Smiling, the President said, “That proves my point. If the Americans can impose a no-fly zone on other countries, then so can Russia. I want all drones, helicopters and aircraft flying over the Ukraine no-fly zone to be shot down at 10am,” he announced emphatically as he poured himself and the generals another glass of vodka. He motioned for his two senior advisors to join them in a toast.
“Today,” Petrov said, “Russia reasserted itself as a world power.”
Enforcement – The First Steps to War
Kiev, Ukraine
18,000 feet above the ground
Major Jake LaFine (call sign “Frenchy”) leveled off his F-16 at 18,000 feet with his wingman, Captain Jorge Ramos “Bean,” as they began to fly towards the self-imposed Russian no-fly zone. They had been briefed on what to do if the Russians fired on them. They were not to hold anything back.
They were each carrying two High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARMs); if they were activated, they would search out and destroy the source of nearby radar sites (unless the enemy radar operator turned off their radar before the missiles reached their target). The two German Eurofighters were also carrying two HARM missiles each as well. The American aircraft were also carrying specific electronic warfare pods to help them defeat any potential Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs) as well.
“Bean, let’s get this show on the road and go pay our Russian friends a visit,” Frenchy said as he led their little air contingent towards the eastern half of Ukraine.
As they approached the no-fly zone, a Russian voice came over an open international aircraft radio frequency hailing them. “NATO aircraft, you are approaching a restricted no-fly zone. If you enter the no-fly zone, you will be fired upon.”
They ignored the caller and continued their mission. The voice called out again, “NATO aircraft, once again, you are approaching a no-fly zone. No combat aircraft are allowed to enter the no-fly zone. Turn around before you are fired upon.”
*******
As Colonel Denis Manturov sat in the command trailer of the S-400 (or as NATO calls them, SA-21 Growler air-defense systems) he noted the arrogance and complete disregard of their message by the American and German pilots. President Petrov was right, the Americans no longer feared them. “Well, that is about to change,” he thought. “The SA-21 has never been fired at another nation before--I doubt the Americans have any idea what they are up against.”
As Colonel Manturov looked at the radar screen, he also noticed the Americans had seven drones heading to various positions in the no-fly zone to provide ground support to the government forces. These were the same positions the drones had previously been located at over the past week, providing the eyes and ears for the Ukrainian ground forces attacking the pro-Russian separatists.
“After the brazen American attack on the Spetsnaz camp two weeks ago, I’m glad that I will be the one to draw first blood for the Motherland,” thought Denis.
He turned to the radar operators and told them, “Have the radars lock onto the enemy aircraft, and standby to engage any anti-radar missiles the Americans may shoot at us.”
The operators simply nodded.
“Send a message to the S-300 battery to have them lock on, and engage the American drones now,” Colonel Manturov continued.
After a tense moment of waiting, one of the radar operators said excitedly, “I have radar lock on the four-enemy aircraft.”
One of the younger soldiers piped up from the radio, “The S-300 battery says they have the American drones locked up as well. Awaiting your order.” A trace of excitement could be heard in his voice.
Colonel Manturov looked at the men in the command center; all their eyes were locked on him, waiting for him to deliver the final authorization. At that moment, Denis knew he was about to change the world forever. He took a deep breath, then announced, “Fire! Engage the hostiles and shoot them down.”
Within seconds, the S-400 fired eight surface-to-air missiles, two for each of the enemy aircraft. The S-300 battery that was closest to the Ukrainian border also fired a series of seven surface-to-air missiles at the American drones. In seconds, the Russians made it known to the world that they meant what they said about enforcing a no-fly zone over eastern Ukraine.
Next, Manturov barked a series of orders to help them prepare their systems to engage any American missiles that may be fired at them in response.
*******
Major LaFine’s warning alarms suddenly started to blare in a cacophony of obnoxious beeping, alerting him that a Russian air defense radar system had locked onto his aircraft. He silently told himself, “This is no big deal. They are just trying to scare us.”
His little air contingent continued to ignore the Russian warnings. Though he would never admit it to anyone, he secretly felt terrified by the warning alarm; in the nine years he had been flying, he had never been locked up by an enemy radar system before. Just as he looked to his right to see Bean flying next to him, his alarm system blared a different warning at him--this time, telling him that the air defense radar system had just fired two surface-to-air missiles at him. A countdown readout told Frenchy that he had roughly three minutes until the missiles would reach him.
“Bean, we’ve just been shot at by those Russian SAMs,” Frenchy told his friend. “Engage them with your missiles, and then let’s try to get out of dodge as fast as possible.”
Frenchy said as he began to toggle the safety off of his weapon system. In a matter of seconds, he had turned his missiles targeting system on, ensured he had a good lock on the radar system that was tracking him, and fired. In seconds, both of his HARM missiles were on their way to their targets.
Frenchy and his wingman began to take evasive maneuvers, weaving and bobbing, climbing and then plummeting. He had a sickening feeling that his missiles would not hit the enemy radar site before those SAMs reached him. As he turned on his electronic counter measures, he sent a radio message back to ground command letting them know that he had just been shot at, and that he had two SAM’s heading towards him.
The German and American aircraft immediately began to take evasive maneuvers, turning on their electronic counter-measures. The aircrafts’ automated self-defense systems began to drop chaff canisters as the missiles began to close in on their targets. Next, the F-16 and Eurofighters began to shoot out flares and additional chaff canisters in an effort to throw off the enemy missiles.
Unbeknownst to the US Air Force and NATO, the Russians had upgraded the tracking software on their missiles, which allowed them to better distinguish between chaff clouds, flare heat signatures, and an actual aircraft. The SA-21s could also see through the electronic trickery of the American electronic warfare pods and countermeasures being employed. Within minutes, the SAMs closed the distance on the American and NATO aircraft and collided with all four aircraft. As the flaming wreckages began to fall to the earth below, two parachutes could be seen drifting down to the ground. There was one German, and one American--the other two pilots were not so lucky.
As the four NATO aircraft were destroyed, the drone pilots watched helplessly as their drones were systematically destroyed by the SA-10s. At first, they had no idea they were being tracked; then they received a flash message that enemy SAMs had been fired at them and they should take evasive maneuvers. The best a drone could do was try to drop as low to the ground as possible and hope they could lose the enemy missiles in the ground clutter. Unfortunately, that did not happen.
The Russians had one A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning system (AWACs) aircraft providing exceptional targeting data for the SA-10s and SA-21 missiles. While the American HARM anti-radar missiles began to head towards the Russian radar systems, one of the other S-400 systems that had not engaged the American aircraft fired off a string of missile interceptors. Rather than turning off their radar systems, the Russians wanted to demonstrate the ability of their system to shoot down the American missiles. All four American HARM missiles were destroyed without further incident.
The Germans never even got a shot off.
In the blink of an eye, the Russians had enforced the no-fly zone; they had successfully reasserted themselves as a World Power, not to be trifled with. They had effectively demonstrated to the US and NATO that they now controlled the skies over eastern Ukraine, and their show of force implied that if they wanted, Russian control could extend to all of Ukraine and the majority of Poland as well.
The Box
Kiev, Ukraine
US Embassy
Chancellery, Ambassador’s Office
Duncan was eating a bagel and cream cheese at his desk as he read the most recent State Department cables from the night before. He was perusing through a message between the Secretary General of NATO and the US Secretary of State discussing the Russian no-fly zone.
“Mr. Secretary, I do not believe the Russians will try to enforce the no-fly zone,” wrote the NATO Secretary. “They will bluster and threaten, but in the end, they will blink.”
“For all our sakes, I hope they are right,” thought Duncan. “This has the potential to spiral out of control quickly.”
Just as he finished reading the cable, he was shoving the last bite of his breakfast into his mouth. Then General Luka barged into his office.
“Ambassador Rice, we have a serious problem,” he announced. His face was all red as he towered over Duncan’s desk.
The Ambassador almost choked as he tried to hurry up and swallow his food so he could speak without his mouth full. “Please,” he said as he grabbed a sip of coffee, “have a seat, General. Tell me what’s going on.” He had a sickening feeling in his stomach.
The general sat down and took a breath before continuing, “They did it. The Russians really did it.”
“Did what, exactly?” asked Ambassador Rice, confused.
“I just got confirmation from our people at the airfield. The Russians just shot down two American F-16s and two German Eurofighters that entered the no-fly zone. They also eliminated all seven of our drones that we had operating over eastern Ukraine,” General Luka explained. He was still almost out of breath and seething with anger.
“This can’t be happening,” Duncan bemoaned to himself. “I told them we needed to tread carefully with the Russians. We boxed them into a corner, and that left them with no option but to fight.”
“Take a breath, General, please,” urged the ambassador. “Let’s start from the beginning. You said the Russians just shot down four Allied aircraft and our drones. Have we recovered the pilots yet? What is their status?”
The general took a deep breath and held it for a second to try and slow his breathing down and regain his composure. “Yes, the search and rescue (SAR) unit recovered two of the pilots--one German, and one American. The other two pilots died when their aircraft blew up,” he said in a more controlled voice.
The wheels started twirling around inside of Ambassador Rice’s head. “I need to talk to the Secretary of State…and the US European Commander. Ugh. I’m going to have to be the one to tell Prime Minister Groysman about this incident too. I told them this could go south!”
Between all the competing thoughts, he realized that he needed all the facts before he talked to anyone. “General Luka, what is being done about this right now? What are the next steps?” He wanted to know if a retaliatory strike was already being planned.
The general, now more composed, responded, “I’ve alerted the Ukrainian desk at the Pentagon. The commander at the airfield has sent a flash message to NATO headquarters and US European Command headquarters as well--”
Just then, the Regional Security Officer (RSO) walked into the Ambassador’s office. Without so much as apologizing for interrupting, the RSO blurted out, “--Sir, we have received an urgent communique from Washington. They are requesting that you speak with them down in the Box.” He indicated with his arm that they should both follow him down to the basement of the embassy.
Each embassy has a “Box,” which is a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility (SCIF). It’s typically a small room, big enough to seat maybe eight people, and it is always filled with secret and top-secret communication equipment and computers. It’s the one room in the embassy that is truly secured from electronic spying, and typically only a handful of people at an embassy have access to it.
As the group made their way down to the basement, the Ambassador saw that the Marine guards had increased their security posture. They were now wearing body armor, and instead of their usual firearms, they were carrying their M4s. Once they all reached the location of the Box, they filed in through the narrow steel door and took their seats at the small conference table. One of the communications specialists from the National Reconnaissance Office had already gotten the video feed set up. There were several screens: one had been labeled “White House Situation Room,” another “Pentagon Operations Center,” a third read “SHAPE Headquarters,” and the final one was labeled “US European Command.”
People continued to fill into the rooms at the various outstations, until someone came on from the White House Situation Room, indicating the meeting would start shortly. Then, the President of the United States walked into the Situation Room, and took his seat at the head of the table.
Gates wasted no time with formalities. “All right,” he said, “someone fill me in. What the devil is going on in Ukraine?”
General Wheeler, the Supreme Allied Command, Europe (SACEUR) who commanded NATO and US European Command spoke up first. “Mr. President, SACEUR here. Approximately 33 minutes ago, two American F-16s and two German Eurofighters flying under NATO control were shot down by Russian surface-to-air missile systems. They also shot down all seven of our surveillance drones, Mr. President.”
Gates turned to his National Security Advisor (NSA), retired general Tom McMillan, and barked, “What the blazes happened, general?! I thought the consensus from everyone was that the Russians would not do this. What went wrong?”
The NSA looked at the others in the room briefly, then back to the President. “Sir, it was our assessment that the Russians would not engage our aircraft to enforce their no-fly zone. Clearly, we were wrong, and there is no excuse Mr. President.” McMillan’s tone was as apologetic as the retired general could muster--he was never wrong. This was a new concept for him.
Travis Johnson, the Secretary of State, spoke up quickly, “Mr. President, I clearly underestimated the Russians’ resolve to enforce this no-fly zone. When I spoke with Foreign Minister Kozlov yesterday, he said that they would enforce it and encouraged us to not test them, but frankly, we believed them to be grandstanding. We thought that they might lock our aircraft up with ground radars, maybe attack one of our drones, but we did not believe they would attack our fighters,” he said in his thick Texas draw.
Tyrone Wilson, the youngest Director of the CIA (and a rising star, by all accounts) added, “We knew the Russians were moving SA-10s and their more-advanced SA-21s into the area, but our analysts believed that this was being done to enforce the idea of the no-fly zone. Our Russia desk has also reported a substantial increase in Russian troop movements towards the border region as well. In light of this recent act of aggression, we have to assume they may be positioning those forces on the border for a potential incursion into eastern Ukraine.”
The last statement only muddied the waters for the President. Gates was clearly getting mad, one could see that his cheeks were flushed red. However, he did not break into a tirade or outburst, at least not yet. He simply looked at his senior advisors, and asked the obvious next question, “So, what do we do now? How do we recover from this obvious miscalculation in intelligence?”
Tom McMillan spoke up first. “Sir, we need to move our forces in Ukraine and Europe to Threat Condition Delta. They need to be prepared in case the Russians are planning any further military action. Following that, we need to reach out to them diplomatically and get an explanation from them on why they openly attacked four NATO aircraft. Third, I recommend that we place additional
military units in the US on alert in case they need to be rapidly deployed to Europe.”
James Castle, the Secretary of Defense, agreed. “I have to concur with the NSA. We should work to solve this diplomatically, but we also need to be ready to respond militarily, if necessary. The Russians just shot down four Allied aircraft. We need to make it clear to them that this kind of aggression will not be tolerated and that their actions will lead to swift repercussions. We should send more military aid to the Ukrainians along with additional military advisors, and then impose additional sanctions on Russia. This way we are not getting American or NATO troops involved in a direct military confrontation with Russia, but we would also send a strong message that this type of aggression will not be tolerated.”
Ambassador Rice could not believe what he was hearing. “Is everyone really so woefully unaware of how all these moves would be viewed by the Kremlin? I know I should just stay silent and let the others do the talking, but I’ve got to say something before things spiral out of control even further,” he thought.
Clearing his throat rather loudly, he got the attention of everyone on the screens. “Mr. President, this is Ambassador Duncan Rice, the Ambassador here in Kiev. If I may, I would like to say something,” he interjected, hoping the President would give him a chance to talk.
The President looked directly at him. “Ambassador Rice, I am glad you spoke up. You are the man on the ground there--I would like to know what your opinion is and what you think we should do,” Gates said encouragingly.
Duncan couldn’t believe it. “The President is not only going to let me speak--he wants my advice,” he thought in wonder. “Oh, look at Travis Johnson’s face--that’s priceless. He has no idea what I’m about to say, and that clearly makes him nervous.”
Assuming control of the meeting for a brief moment, Ambassador Rice began, “Mr. President, prior to becoming the Ambassador to Ukraine, I worked as the Deputy Chief of Mission to Belarus for four years. Before that, I was the senior political officer at our Moscow embassy. I have a lot of experience dealing with the Russian government and their allies.”
