Unmanned: Drones, Data, and the Illusion of Perfect Warfare
Page 29
The bombed-out former home of Al Qaeda leader Mohammed Atef at Wazir Akbar Khan Street No. 13, as observed by the author in early 2002. Atef was killed in this strike, though it wasn’t by a Predator drone—another urban legend of the early drone war. (William M. Arkin)
Part of the ubiquitous growth of the Data Machine is that every platform—not just dedicated drones and reconnaissance aircraft, but also normal fighters and even transport planes—are equipped with pods and black boxes to collect ever more information. Here Major Olivia Elliott of the 40th Flight Test Squadron examines the Litening II advanced targeting pod mounted on her A-10 Thunderbolt II. (USAF/Samuel King Jr.)
The new (at the time) secretary of defense Robert M. Gates visits Creech Air Force Base in Nevada, on January 8, 2008, to see for himself whether the army’s complaints of a lack of drone support are true. Here he is briefed by air force colonel Christopher Chambliss, commander of the 432nd Wing. Gates came away concluding that drone crew were second-class citizens and that the air force was not doing enough, ignoring the facts and missing the bigger problem of the gargantuan Data Machine. Five months later, Gates fired the air force chief of staff and civilian secretary, ostensibly over a nuclear scandal but really because someone had to be held accountable for losing in Afghanistan and Iraq. (USAF/Cherie A. Thurlby)
The lowest on the totem pole, the final warrior on the so-called edge of the network. Here a marine with Force Reconnaissance Platoon, 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), in Djibouti, East Africa, at the end of 2011. Using a ubiquitous black box called ROVER (and other black boxes), individuals at the edge of the network are able to simultaneously see what drones are seeing. (USMC/Cpl. Ricky J. Holt)
The killing machine got its start before 9/11 and before the Bush administration. A small group of Clinton counterterrorism hunters and bureaucrats began the long march to finding and killing Osama bin Laden and other terrorists threatening the United States. Here is annotated imagery from 2000 showing Tarnak Farms, east of Kandahar, where bin Laden was assumed to have a family home. It was the first target surveilled in the country in 2000. (Photograph obtained by the author from a confidential source.)
Data, as prepared by the author and the US Air Force lessons learned study team, on the night of November 13, 2001, when Al Qaeda leader Mohammed Atef was killed in a bombing attack and the Al Jazeera television office was also bombed. The killing of Atef was widely reported as having been carried out by a Predator drone but was clearly the result of bombing by a navy F/A-18 Hornet jet. (William M. Arkin)
More and more information and the increased computing capacities of the Data Machine led to the ability to create realistic simulations, allowing normal soldiers to then begin to master the capacities of the Data Machine. Here is a rendition of the Afghan village of Khairabad, as produced by the company MetaVR for the Pentagon—a meticulous simulation of a standard Muslim village that patrollers and targeters might face sometime in the future. (Image copyright © 2015 by MetaVR, Inc., Brookline, MA, USA. Used with permission.)
Acknowledgments
Nothing about Unmanned really turned out as I expected. It is hardly a book about drones—that is, the drone “war” in Pakistan and the coming everything that saturates civilian society. And I didn’t get the story I thought I would of how the military and intelligence worlds see drones, because, well, now that they’ve become controversial, there isn’t a lot of enthusiasm for lifting the veil beyond the PR. Even more, as I discovered, it is the Machine that is the story, not the drones. Military and intelligence insiders seem oblivious to their captivity, or else they are so overwhelmed by the scourge of information overload that they can hardly see anything else.
Early on in my research I discovered Gilgamesh as the name of a black box and that gave the book and my own search some meaning. Tim Schultz and Watt Alexander were crucial stimulants who made me look deeper, but the Epic itself captivated me, particularly as I began to see parallels between the five-thousand-year-old story and our modern world. David Chappell engaged me in many challenging discussions. Tom Cochran and Regina Monaco helped with two vital scientific questions that were over my head. Jacques and Christine, Colleen and Clif, and Vicky Bippart also inspired and fed my spirit during the writing, as did Luciana. Thanks also to the unmentioned sources who guided me through the discoveries.
Geoff Shandler, my former editor at Little, Brown, made the book possible. After he left, Ben George ably took over editing. Thanks also to the others I worked with at Little, Brown and Hachette, and to the production and editing team of Ben Allen and Barbara Perris, who I had the pleasure to work with on American Coup as well.
My whole world was turned upside down during the writing of this book, forcing me to go on my own search for the wind. Thanks to Kimberly, Chuck Gundersen, Nancy Spillane, Peter Pringle, David and Misa Chappell, Marianne Manilov, Daniel Stadler, and Sultana Khan for propping me up. And thanks as always to Kevin and Cory, Julia and Reed, Marianne Szegedy-Maszak, Stan Norris, Hans Kristensen, Bob Windrem, Steve Shallhorn, John Robinson, Chip Fleischer, and Tom Powers. Thanks also to my attorney and most trusted advisor, Jeffrey Smith.
During most of the time I worked on Unmanned I served as national security consultant to the New York Times. It was exhilarating and frustrating; none of it would have happened without the steady friendship of Eric Schmitt. To Leo, have fun with the Parrot. To Galen and Olivia, it’s your future. To Rikki and Hannah, I love you.
About the Author
WILLIAM M. ARKIN is one of America’s premier military experts, having started his forty-year career in national security serving in army intelligence in West Berlin during the Cold War. He has written more than a dozen books and been instrumental in countless exposés. At the Washington Post he conceived and coauthored the landmark “Top Secret America” investigation, and cowrote the national bestseller of the same name. He has been a columnist for the Los Angeles Times and national security consultant to the New York Times and NBC News. He is also the author, most recently, of American Coup. He lives in Vermont.
williamaarkin.wordpress.com
@warkin
Also by William M. Arkin
American Coup: How a Terrified Government Is Destroying the Constitution
Top Secret America: The Rise of the New American Security State with Dana Priest
Divining Victory: Airpower in the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War
Code Names: Deciphering U.S. Military Plans, Programs, and Operations in the 9/11 World
Operation Iraqi Freedom: 22 Historic Days in Words and Pictures with Marc Kusnetz and General Montgomery Meigs
The U.S. Military Online: A Directory for Internet Access to the Department of Defense
Encyclopedia of the U.S. Military with Joshua Handler, Julie A. Morrissey, and Jacquelyn Walsh
Nuclear Weapons Databook: Volume IV—Soviet Nuclear Weapons with Thomas B. Cochran, Robert S. Norris, and Jeffrey I. Sands
Nuclear Weapons Databook: Volume III—U.S. Nuclear Warhead Facility Profiles with Thomas B. Cochran, Milton M. Hoenig, and Robert S. Norris
Nuclear Weapons Databook: Volume II—U.S. Nuclear Warhead Production with Thomas B. Cochran, Milton M. Hoenig, and Robert S. Norris
Nuclear Battlefields: Global Links in the Arms Race with Richard Fieldhouse
S.I.O.P.: The Secret U.S. Plan for Nuclear War with Peter Pringle
Nuclear Weapons Databook: Volume I—U.S. Nuclear Forces and Capabilities with Thomas B. Cochran and Milton M. Hoenig
Research Guide to Current Military and Strategic Affairs
Notes
INTRODUCTION
1. PowerPoint Briefing, General Atomics, Expanding the Capabilities of RPA, Presented to ISR Symposium, December 11, 2013; PowerPoint Briefing, General Atomics, Predator Aircraft Series Status Report: Military & Civilian Missions, Presented to RPAS 2012 June 2012.
2. I prefer to use the term “drone” throughout this book, even though in some ways it is both inflammatory and inaccurate.
The standard dictionary defines a drone as “a pilotless airplane or ship controlled by radio signals.” The term “drone” is said to have originated with a 1930s pilotless version of the British Fairey Queen fighter, the Queen Bee (see www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/9552547/The-air-force-men-who-fly-drones-in-Afghanistan-by-remote-control.html), and the term was in vogue through the 1950s. As drones shifted from aerial targeting and directed bombs to something resembling today’s systems, the term “remotely piloted vehicle (RPV)” emerged. This distinguished new roles from those of merely taking out targets and remote-delivering bombs, and that term persisted through the Vietnam era into the 1980s. “Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)” then emerged, a break from the previous generation of technology and a shift back to a focus on conventional war. “Unmanned aerial systems (UAS)” became more popular after the computer network era to denote the entire system, including the flying element and its parts. Finally, in the middle of the 2000s, “remotely piloted aircraft (RPA)” emerged, a new designation favored by those wishing to stress the capabilities and complexities of third-generation systems and also to stress the involvement of people in their operation. “UAV/UAS” remains the most common term; “drone” is what is most commonly used in the mainstream press and in conversation.
3. US Congress, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, Performance Audit of Department of Defense Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance, April 2012.
The number grew from 167 UAVs in 2002 to 727 by 2004; to 2,962 by 2006; to 6,191 by 2008.
4. DOD, Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap 2013-2018, p. 20; DOD, Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap, FY 2011–2036, p. 23; “Putting the Army Together—Manned, Unmanned Aviation Teaming; Col. John D. Burke, Director, Unmanned Systems Integration (Deputy Director, Army Aviation), Army G-3/5/7; Presentation to AAAA Unmanned Aircraft Systems Symposium, 12 December 2006; Peter Finn, “Rise of the drone: From Calif. garage to multibillion-dollar defense industry,” Washington Post, December 23, 2011; www.washingtonpost.com/national/national-security/rise-of-the-drone-from-calif-garage-to-multibillion-dollar-defense-industry/2011/12/22/gIQACG8UEP_story.html (accessed February 19, 2014).
5. CRS (Ronald O’Rourke), Unmanned Vehicles for U.S. Naval Forces: Background and Issues for Congress, Updated October 25, 2006.
6. DOD, Unmanned Systems Integrated Roadmap 2013-2018, p. 3; PowerPoint Briefing, Future of Unmanned Aircraft Systems in a Fiscally Constrained Environment; Dyke Weatherington, OUSD(AT&L)/PSA; Deputy Director, Unmanned Warfare, n.d. (2011).
“The growing awareness and support in Congress and the Department of Defense for UAVs, investments in unmanned aerial vehicles, have been increasing every year. The Fiscal Year 2001 (FY01) investment in UAVs was approximately $667 million, while the FY03 funding totaled over $1.1 billion dollars. The Pentagon has asked for $1.39 billion in procurement and development funding for FY04, with much more planned for the out years”; CRS, “Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Background and Issues for Congress,” Report for Congress, April 25, 2003.
The Teal Group’s “World Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Systems, Market Profile and Forecast 2008” research estimated that investment in unmanned aerial vehicles alone will reach $7.3 billion annually worldwide and total $55 billion between 2008 and 2018.
The U.S. International Trade Administration estimates that global unmanned aerial vehicle production will reach $8.8 billion annually by 2020. Some analysts predict that the civilian market will reach $400 billion in a few years.
7. The Joint Air Power Competence Centre (JAPCC) Flight Plan for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in NATO, Version 5.4, March 15, 2007, p. 7.
NATO nations have approximately 51 HALE, 105 MALE aircraft, and over 3,300 tactical/mini aircraft that are developed and operated via national organizations.
8. Kari Hawkins, Assistant Editor, “People Profile; Unmanned aircraft systems deputy credits team effort,” Redstone Rocket (Redstone Arsenal); Wednesday, June 4, 2014, 11:23 a.m.
9. Ian G. R. Shaw, Predator Empire: The Geopolitics of US Drone Warfare, Geopolitics, 2013 (DOI: 10.1080/14650045.2012).
10. www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/05/18/cia.pakistan.airstrikes/.
11. Dr. James Igoe Walsh, The Effectiveness of Drone Strikes in Counterinsurgency and Counterterrorism Campaigns, Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, September 2013, p. v.
12. On April 30, 2014, the State Department issued its latest Country Reports on Terrorism. Dealing with 2013, it states that the numbers of terrorists and acts of terrorism are increasing, including those associated with al Qaeda and its affiliates. In 2013, terrorist attacks worldwide rose 43 percent over 2012. Terrorists killed some 17,891 and wounded another 32,577. Nearly 3,000 people were kidnapped or taken hostage in 2013. In that year, the organization ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) doubled the number of people it had killed in 2012.
13. As of the end of 2013, General Atomics had delivered 575+ drones of the Predator, Reaper, Gray Eagle class; PowerPoint Briefing, General Atomics, Expanding the Capabilities of RPA, Presented to ISR Symposium, December 11, 2013.
14. Robert M. Gates, Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2014), p. 133.
15. The Joint Air Power Competence Centre (JAPCC) Flight Plan for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in NATO, Version 5.4, March 15, 2007, p. 7.
Almost 80 percent of US flying drones weigh less than fifty pounds; 95 percent of NATO’s drones are small unmanned aerial vehicles.
16. www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-efficacy-and-ethics-us-counterterrorism-strategy.
17. I know this statistic invites incredulity, but the military is a pyramid, with tiny numbers of senior officers and enlisted leaders towering above the hundreds of thousands of soldiers (and unlaborers) at the bottom. The number of people in uniform who were in the military before 9/11 (fourteen years ago as of publication of this book) and are still in, is estimated to be less than 5 percent.
18. PowerPoint Briefing, Mike Kutch, SSC Atlantic Cyber Lead, Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center Atlantic, NDIA Fall Symposium, San Diego, October 6, 2010; PowerPoint Briefing, Mike Kutch, SSC Atlantic, Rethinking Cybersecurity Engineering and Innovation within the Fleet and Naval Enterprise, May 25, 2010.
19. “The recruiting pipeline is populated by digital natives, with an expectation of a multi-media rich training environment with evolving learning and communication technologies. This environment must be technologically intuitive, agile and globally accessible 24/7.” DOD, Strategic Plan for the Next Generation of Training, September 23, 2010, p. 6.
20. Timothy J. Sundvall, Robocraft: Engineering National Security with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, Air University, Maxwell AFB, Alabama, 2006, p. v; Maj. Houston R. Cantwell, USAF, Beyond Butterflies: Predator and the Evolution of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle in Air Force Culture; School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, Air University, Maxwell AFB, Alabama, June 2007, p. 3.
21. DOD PowerPoint Briefing, Department of Defense Sustainability, n.d. (November 2009).
CHAPTER ONE Search of the Wind
1. The names used here, and the story line, derive from the dominant translations and adaptations, some of which are factual or accurate and some of which are fictional or take liberties or license. I researched the epic in the Encyclopaedia Britannica from the tenth edition (1902–1903) onward to the current Encyclopedia Britannica (online). The evolution of the understanding of the epic is well documented there.
See David Damrosch, The Buried Book: The Loss and Rediscovery of the Great Epic of Gilgamesh (New York: Henry Holt and Company, 2007); Stephen Mitchell, Gilgamesh: A New English Version (New York: Free Press [paperback], 2004); Benjamin R. Foster, trans. and ed., The Epic of Gilgamesh (New York: Norton, 2001); The Epic of Gilgamesh: A Prose Rendition Based Upon the Original Akkadian, Babylonian, Hittite and Sumerian Tablets, Rendered and Annotated by John Harris (Writer’s Club Press, 2001); Andrew George, The Epic of Gilgamesh: A New Translation (
New York: Barnes and Noble Books, 1999); Andrew George, The Epic of Gilgamesh: The Babylonian Epic Poem and Other Texts in Akkadian and Sumerian (London: Allen Lane, 1999); Andrew George, trans., The Epic of Gilgamesh (Penguin Classics, 1999); N. K. Sanders, The Epic of Gilgamesh,an English translation with introduction (London: Penguin Books, 1964); Alexander Heidel, The Gilgamesh Epic and Old Testament Parallels (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1949); The Epic of Gilgamesh, translated by Maureen Gallery Kovacs and based on the standard Akkadian edition, but filled in with excerpts from the Old Babylonian where necessary; online at www.ancienttexts.org/library/mesopotamian/gilgamesh/. See also Theodore Ziolkowski, Gilgamesh: An Epic Obsession, November 1, 2011; www.berfrois.com/2011/11/theodore-ziolkowski-gilgamesh/.
2. The Buried Book: The Loss and Rediscovery of the Great Epic of Gilgamesh, p. 3.
3. In 1914 Edgar Rice Burroughs published Tarzan of the Apes, the story of a baby of English nobility who is raised by a band of African apes.
4. A number of reviewers have commented on my hyperbole here, but I stick by it.
5. See U.S. Cyber Command, PowerPoint Briefing, Cyberspace Operations, Prepared for the 18th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Major General Brett T. Williams, Director of Operations (J3), USCYBERCOM, June 6, 2013, UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY; obtained by the author.
6. Future Force: Joint Operations, Air Force Chief of Staff General John P. Jumper, Remarks to the Air Armaments Summit VI, Sandestin, Fla., March 17, 2004; obtained by the author.