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A Sense of the Enemy

Page 32

by Shore, Zachary


  communist revolution, 185

  computer science, 192

  conceptual framework, 158, 206

  conservative (party), 19, 22

  constraints, 117, 176, 184, 201, 204

  context-dependent preferences, 68

  continuity heuristic, 147–166, 186, 231

  contradiction, strategic, 140

  counterrevolutionary efforts, 119

  coup d’etat, 76, 80

  covert military training, 51

  crawling order, 15, 18

  criminal networks, 191

  Crowe, Eyre, 153, 155, 164, 232

  Crowe Memorandum of 1907, 152–153, 160

  Cuban Missile Crisis, 5–6, 120–121

  Cun Ming, 149, 154

  Cuno, Wilhelm, 38

  Czechoslovakia, invasion of, 144

  Dang vu Hiep, 130

  data sets, 168

  Dawes, Charles G., 56, 213

  de-Americanization, 144

  decision making, 4, 69, 196, 219

  Defense Department, 171

  Dekanozov, Vladimir, 83

  demilitarized zones, 92

  Democratic Republic of Vietnam (DRV), 108, 126

  deterministic ideology, 159

  Diem assassination, 116

  . see also Ngo Dinh Diem

  diplomacy, 64

  Directive Number 21, 73

  directives, 73, 127–128, 132

  Dirksen, Herbert von, 62

  disarmament violations, 60

  disinformation campaign, 74

  Dodd, William E., 89, 92, 206, 221

  dogma

  communist, 201

  Marxist, 76–77, 121

  domestic instability, 71

  domestic opposition, 117

  domestic politics, 110

  dominance, 176

  drivers

  constraints, 117, 176, 184, 201, 204

  Hitler, 105

  key, 109, 201

  Kremlin, 185

  messianic, 99

  prime, 86

  Soviet behavior, 161

  Stalin, 75

  Stresemann, 63–70

  underlying, 165, 176, 183–184

  dual policy, Russia, 38

  dual use materials, 58

  Dung Van Tien, 126

  Dyer, Reginald E., 14–15

  dynasties, Han, 149

  East and West, balance of, 67

  econometricians, 175

  economic growth, 97

  economic interests, 97

  Egyptian army, 173

  Eight Plenum, 112

  Einsatzgruppen, 78

  Einstein, Albert, 27

  Eisener, Kurt, 30

  Eisenhower, Dwight D., 113, 120

  election results, 168

  Eleventh Plenum, 138

  emotional empathy, 75

  . see also strategic empathy

  enemy intentions, 202

  England, aggression of, 96

  Enlightenment science, 168

  equal rights, 218

  escalation, 123–146, 186

  espionage, 73, 141

  European diplomacy, 64

  evolutionary biology, 193

  expansionism, 153

  failed deterrence hypothesis, 132

  Farnham, Barbara, 222

  Fearon, James, 132

  financial dominance, 176

  financial improprieties, 51

  Finland, German troops in, 103

  First Indochina War, 121

  First World War, 8, 22, 24–26, 33, 69, 78, 157, 160, 185

  Fischer, Ruth, 31, 35, 37

  fixed/fluid motivation, 188

  Flaming Dart (military operation), 125, 131

  foreign affairs, 88

  foreign intelligence, Soviet, 73

  Foreign Minister

  British and French, 56, 60

  Chicherin, 44

  Gustav Stresemann, 26–30

  Vyachaslav Molotov, 85–86, 95, 103

  foreign policy

  advisors of, 105

  American, 122

  analysts of, 233

  German, 49, 54, 72

  Khrushchev, 114

  Locarno, 42

  Russia’s dual, 38

  Soviet Union, 39

  Western, 39, 62

  formulation of policy, 156

  framework, cognitive, 161

  Free-Corps, 30–31

  free speech, 93

  Fuller, S. R. Jr., 92–93

  fundamental attribution errors, 152, 154, 231–232

  Funder, David C., 219

  Gaddafi, Muammar, 201

  Gaddis, John Lewis, 75

  Galileo, 167

  Gambetta, Diego, 191

  Gandhi, Mahatma, 13–24, 184–185, 212–213

  Gandhi-Irwin Pact, 23

  Gatzke, Hans, 64–65, 218

  general election results, 168

  general war, 123

  George, Alexander, 161–162, 202–203

  George, David Lloyd, 29

  geostrategic realities, 132

  German Communist Party (KPD), 30–31

  German People’s Party, 66

  German Right, 65, 77

  German-Soviet military agreement, 39–40, 44, 104–105

  Germany

  disinformation campaign, 74

  expansion of, 157

  Foreign Office, 63, 153

  foreign policy, 49, 54, 72

  liberal trade relations, 97

  police of, 42

  policies in, 153

  restoring empire, 98

  revanchism and, 64

  revolution in, 34, 77

  Giáp, General, 116

  . see also Nguyen Vo Giáp

  Gigerenzer, Gerd, 198, 219

  Gilbert, Daniel, 190

  Gladwell, Malcolm, 198

  Glasnost, 7

  Gleiwitz incident, 134

  global revolution, 77

  global superpowers, 176

  Goebbels, Joseph, 91, 93, 222

  Goldhammer, Herbert, 175

  Gopnik, Alison, 193

  Gorbachav, Mikhail, 7

  Göring, Hermann, 73, 79, 91, 99–100

  Gorodetsky, Gabriel, 74

  Goscha, Christopher, 110

  Gottenburg (ship), 52

  government, Popular Front, 111

  Graefe, Karl von, 52

  Great Britain. See Britain

  Great Depression, 90

  great mass approach, 2

  Great Terror of 1937-1938, 76, 82

  Greece, revolutionary movements in, 133

  Grey, Edward, 155

  gross domestic product (GDP), 179

  Grossheim, Martin, 110

  Gruening, Ernst, 228

  Guanzhong, Luo, 231

  guerrilla warfare, 114, 117, 140

  Gut Feelings (Planck), 198

  Hall, Karin, 99

  Hanoi, 107–124, 132

  Han Dynasty, 149

  Hermann, Margaret, 163

  Herring, George, 131

  Hersh, Seymour, 233

  Hess, Rudolph, 96

  heuristics

  availability, 149–150

  continuity, 147–166, 186, 231

  decision making, 4, 69, 196, 219

  national characteristics as, 156, 160

  pattern-break, 146, 164, 186–187, 219

  Heye, Wilhelm, 50, 65

  hierarchical pattern recognizers, 5, 172, 192, 194–195

  Hilger, Gustav, 59

  hindsight bias, 69, 204

  Hindu-Muslim unity, 16–17

  historical analysis, 119, 140

  historical inevitability, 162

  historical scholarship, 206–207

  Hitler, Adolph, 5–6, 33, 36, 72, 77–78, 80, 86, 88–89, 91, 93, 97, 134, 171, 186

  Hitler Speaks (Rauschning), 85

  Hitler Youth, 91, 221

  Ho Chi Minh, 109, 111, 114–115, 124, 126, 143, 145

  Holloway, David, 74

 
Holocaust, 205

  Holsti, Ole, 163

  homosexuality, 100

  Houghton, Alison B., 33, 41

  House of Commons, 19

  Hughes, Charles Evans, 33, 40

  Hull, Cordell, 89–90, 94, 100

  human rights, 96

  Hussein, Saddam, 163

  ideological agenda, 80, 106

  ideological worldview, 201

  ideology

  deterministic, 159

  Marxist, 76, 111, 133

  racist, 186

  imperialists, 119–120, 127, 139

  Indian equality, 18

  Indians, injustice and, 23

  Indochinese Communist Party, 111

  Indochinese Wars, 110, 121, 133

  industrialists, 66

  inevitable benefits hypothesis, 133

  influence and agency, 156

  information, analyzing, 2

  information theory, 192, 195, 204

  intentions and capabilities, 200

  Inter-Allied Military Control Commission (IMCC), 33, 56, 58, 66

  international isolation, 71

  international relations, 156, 192, 200

  international relations theory, 179, 232

  invasions, 82, 144

  Irving, David, 222

  Jewish Bolshevism, 28–29, 36, 40, 47, 78, 84, 159

  Jewry, 94

  Jews

  anti-Jewish sentiment, 92, 94

  Bolshevism and, 28–29, 36, 40, 47, 78, 84, 159

  Marxist, 95

  Johnson, Hugh S., 89

  Johnson, Lyndon B., 109–110, 122, 124–125, 127–128, 130, 132, 145, 187

  Junker aircraft corporation, 37, 48

  Kahnemann, Daniel, 68, 149–151, 197–198, 231

  Kapp, Wolfgang, 31–33

  Kennan, George F., 158–159, 164, 185

  Kennan Telegram of 1946, 152

  Kennedy, John F., 6, 117

  Kershaw, Ian, 94

  key drivers, 86, 109, 201

  Keynes, John Maynard, 199

  Khanh Hoang Nghia, 126

  Khrushchev, Nikita, 6, 115

  Khrushchev policy, 114

  Kill Anything That Moves (Turse), 138

  Kim Il Sung, 163

  Kissinger, Henry, 6–7, 63, 107–108, 111, 121, 176

  Knowing One’s Enemy (George), 202–203

  Knowing the Adversary (Yarhi-Milo), 202

  Kolberg (ship), 52

  Korean War, 120–121

  Kosygin, Alexi, 130

  KPD (German Communist Party), 30–31

  Kremlin, 47, 161, 185

  Krestinski, Nikolai, 34, 37, 40–41, 43, 45, 61–62

  Kristallnacht, 93–95, 186, 222

  Krueger, Joachim I., 219

  Krüger, Peter, 45, 215

  Kurzban, Robert, 68–69

  Kurzweil, Ray, 194–195

  labour members, 20–21

  Langer, Walter, 102

  Langer, William L., 102

  Laws, Nuremberg, 92–93

  League of Nations, 39, 43–45, 57

  Le Duan, 107–124, 144, 186, 224, 226–227

  Le Duc Tho, 107–124, 144

  LeMay, Curtis, 5–6

  Lend-Lease program, 134

  Lenin, Vladimir, 29–30, 185, 214

  Leningrad Soviet, 47

  Leninism, 40

  Le Phuong Anh, 225

  Liebknecht, Karl, 30

  limited war, 123, 126

  Lindsay, Ronald, 59–60

  Lippershey, Hans, 167

  Litvinov, Maksim, 63

  loans, American, 66

  Löbe, Paul, 50, 52

  Locarno Agreement, 26, 42, 44–45, 217, 219

  Lodge, Henry Cabot, 128

  Logevall, Frederick, 131, 229

  Long, Breckinridge, 101

  long telegram, 158, 232

  long-term trends, 176–177

  love force, 185

  Lu Duan, 110–117

  Lutze, Viktor, 79–80, 89

  Luxemburg, Rosa, 30

  Maddox mission, 127

  Madrid train bombings, 199

  Mansour, Mullah Akhtar Muhammad, 1

  manufacturing arms, 92

  Marshall, Andrew, 173–174, 176, 178–179, 234

  Marshall, George, 94, 153, 203

  Marxism

  Bolsheviks, 28–29, 36, 40, 47, 78, 84, 159

  dogma, 76–77, 121

  Hanoi, 110

  historical analysis, 119

  ideology of, 76, 111, 133

  Jews and, 85

  Vietnamese, 106

  Marxist-Leninist, 128, 140, 158, 160

  massacres, 14–15, 184

  massive retaliation policy, 120

  materials, access to, 78

  mathematical analysis, 169

  McGovern, George, 107

  McNamara, Robert, 122, 129–130, 137, 203, 223, 229

  meaningful pattern breaks, 180, 192, 195

  media, German, 93

  Mein Kampf (Hitler), 85–86, 88, 94, 98

  memoranda, 152–153

  mental empathy, 193

  mental illness, 175

  mentalizing, 81, 105

  Merrick, George, 127

  messianic drivers, 99

  Metcalf, Barbara, 212

  Mikoyan, Anastas, 80

  Milgram, Stanley, 205

  militarization, 42

  military

  action of, 103, 125

  cooperation of, 63, 67

  covert training, 51

  dominance of, 176

  intelligence division, 122

  strategies and, 85

  Molotov, Vyachaslav, 85–86, 103–105

  Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, 95

  moments, pattern-break, 22–23, 68, 88, 185

  Montagu, Edwin, 18–20

  Moore, R. Walton, 91

  Morse, Wayne, 122, 143, 228

  motivations, fixed/fluid, 188

  Mubarak, Hosni, 201

  Munich Agreement, 94

  Munich Crisis, 222

  Munich Putsch, 42

  Murphy, David, 74

  Mussolini, Benito, 96, 101

  Naimark, Norman, 76, 220

  Nam Bak, 144

  national characteristics, 156, 160

  National Liberal Party, 26

  National Liberation Front for South Vietnam, 227

  NATO forces, 176–177

  Nazis

  Brown Shirts, 78, 80, 90

  forces of, 74

  invasions and, 72, 77

  media, 222

  rallies for, 92

  regimes supporting, 90

  rule of, 94

  Nazi-Soviet pact, 86

  Nehru, Motilal, 23

  neocolonialism, 121, 124

  neo-imperialists, 118

  Netflix, 5

  Neurath, Konstantin Freiherr von, 95

  neuroscience, cognitive, 204

  Neustadt, Richard, 203–204

  New Deal, 90

  Ngo Dinh Diem, 113, 118

  Nguyen, Lien-Hang T., 110

  Nguyen Chi Thanh, 116, 129, 133, 135

  Nguyen Thuy Nga, 111–112, 225

  Nguyen Van Linh, 114

  Nguyen Van Troi, 130

  Nguyen Vo Giáp, 116

  Night of Broken Glass, 93–95

  Night of the Long Knives, 79–80, 89, 186

  9/11 attacks, 170, 198

  Ninth Plenum, 138

  Nixon, Richard, 107, 121–122, 144, 176

  Nobel Foundation, 56

  nonaggression pact, Poland, 78

  North-first policy of war, 116

  North Sea, 178

  North Vietnamese, 109

  nuclear war, 7, 120

  Nuremberg Laws, 92–93

  Obama, Barack, 179

  O’Dwyer, Michael, 19

  Office of Net Assessment, 173–174, 177

  Office of Strategic Services (OSS), 101

  officer corps, 82

  operational code, 161–164 />
  operational content, 162

  Operation Barbarossa, 74, 83, 105, 207

  Operation Flaming Dart, 125, 131

  Ordinary Men (Browning), 205–206

  pacts

  Gandhi-Irwin, 23

  Molotov-Ribbentrop, 95

  Nazi-Soviet, 86

  Poland’s nonaggression, 78, 134

  Tripartite, 78

  Warsaw, 176–177

  Palmer, Charles Frederick, 22

  Pandora, 5

  paramilitary, 78

  pattern-break

  Amritsar, 18

  analysis and, 178

  behaviors, 6–7, 15, 70, 89, 93, 99, 151, 161, 164

  events, 6–7

  heuristics, 146, 164, 186–187, 219

  meaningful, 180, 192, 195

  moments, 22–23, 68, 88, 185

  problem, 198

  pattern recognition, 5, 172, 192, 194–195

  patterns of behavior, 164

  Pearl Harbor, 170

  People’s Army (Vietnam), 138

  People’s Navy (Vietnam), 124

  Perestroika, 7

  Petrov (pseudonym), 36

  Petty-Fitzmaurice, Edmond George, 155

  Pham Van Dong, 226

  Philippines, revolutionary movements in, 133

  Pieper, Joachim, 39

  placement, 204

  Planck, Max, 198

  plenum, 112, 119–120, 138, 143

  Poland, nonaggression pact, 78

  police force, 79

  police militarization, 42

  police state, 91

  policies

  American foreign, 122

  analysts of, 187

  formulation of, 156

  German foreign, 49, 54, 72

  independent, 65

  Khrushchev, 114

  leadership style and, 163

  Locarno, 42

  massive retaliation, 120

  nuclear war, 120

  protracted war, 138–139

  quarantine, 134

  racial, 100

  Russia’s dual, 38

  Schaukelpolitik, 67

  South/North-first, 116

  Soviet foreign, 39

  Western, 39, 62

  Polish aggression, 78, 134

  Polish Corridor, 44

  Politburo, 29, 34, 127–128, 132, 144

  political leaders, British, 18–19

  political science, 200

  poor planning hypothesis, 133

  Popular Front government, 111

  Post, Jerrold, 165

  The Predictioneer’s Game (Bueno de Mesquita), 171

  predictions, 191, 194

  preference predictions, 5

  pre/postescalation phase, 137

  Press, Daryl, 202

  primary election results, 168

  prime drivers, 86

  production, war materials, 38

  professional officer corps, 79

  programs, Reichswehr secret, 65–66

  projected rationality, 73–86

  propagandistic terms, 136

  protests, civil rights, 122

  protracted war

  guerrilla warfare, 117

  policies, 138–139

  strategies of, 137, 141–142, 145

  psychobiographies, 102, 165

  psychological assessments, 101

  psychological warfare, 141–142

  psychology, cognitive, 196

  puppet army, 118, 123, 132, 135–138, 142

  putsch, 33, 42, 81

 

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