77. Christian Solidarity Worldwide, China: Persecution of Protestant Christians in the Approach to the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games (June 2008); Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, International Religious Freedom Report, 2007 (2007).
78. Hunter and Chan, Protestantism in Contemporary China, p. 23. See also Yihua, ‘Patriotic Protestants’.
79. Simon Elegant, ‘The War for China’s Soul’, Time, 20 August 2006. See also Potter, ‘Belief in Control’.
80. Evan Osnos, ‘Jesus in China: Christianity’s Rapid Rise’, Chicago Tribune, 22 June 2008.
81. Hunter and Chan, Protestantism in Contemporary China, p. 6.
82. Peng, ‘Unreconciled Differences’, pp. 162f.; Zhao, ‘Recent Progress of Christian Studies’.
83. Aikman, Beijing Factor, p. 5.
84. Zhuo, ‘Significance of Christianity’, p. 258.
85. Aikman, Beijing Factor, pp. 245ff.
86. Evan Osnos, ‘Jesus in China: Christianity’s Rapid Rise’, Chicago Tribune, 22 June 2008.
87. Bao, ‘Intellectual Influence of Christianity’, p. 274.
88. Aikman, Beijing Factor, p. 17.
89. Chesterton, ‘Miracle of Moon Crescent’, p. 116.
90. Craig Whitlock, ‘2 British Suspects Came from Africa’, Washington Post, 27 July 2005.
91. Barber, Jihad vs. McWorld.
92. Cox and Marks, The West, Islam and Islamism.
93. Pew Forum, Muslim Networks, p. 6.
94. Tony Barber, ‘Tensions Unveiled’, Financial Times, 16 November 2010, p. 9.
95. Calculated from figures in the UK Labour Force Survey and the United Nations Population Prospects middle projection. See also ‘Muslim Population “Rising 10 Times Faster than Rest of Society” ’, The Times, 30 January 2009.
96. Caldwell, Reflections.
97. Pew Forum, Muslim Networks, pp. 20–56.
98. Simcox et al., Islamist Terrorism.
99. See Goldsworthy, How Rome Fell; Heather, Fall of the Roman Empire.
100. Ward-Perkins, Fall of Rome.
101. Chesterton, ‘Patriotic Idea’, p. 618; Shaw, Back to Methuselah, pp. xv–xvi.
CONCLUSION: THE RIVALS
1. Hexter, ‘Seyssel, Machiavelli, and Polybius’.
2. Goldstone, ‘Cultural Orthodoxy’, pp. 129f.; Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion, p. 354.
3. Bolingbroke, Patriot King, p. 273.
4. Sorokin, Social and Cultural Dynamics.
5. Quigley, Tragedy and Hope, pp. 3f. See also Quigley, Evolution of Civilizations.
6. Kennedy, Rise and Fall, p. xvi.
7. Diamond, Collapse, p. 158.
8. For an interesting critique, see Joseph A. Tainter’s review in Current Anthropology, 46 (December 2005).
9. For an introduction see Mitchell, Complexity.
10. Ibid., p. 5. See also Holland, Emergence.
11. Buchanan, Ubiquity.
12. Waldrop, Complexity.
13. Taleb, ‘Fourth Quadrant’.
14. Krakauer et al. (eds.), History, Big History and Metahistory. Cf. Holland, Hidden Order.
15. Richardson, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels. For a modern review, see Hayes, ‘Statistics of Deadly Quarrels’ and the discussion in Pinker, Better Angels.
16. Kotkin, Armageddon Averted.
17. Guan and Li, ‘GDP and Economic Structure’.
18. Maddison, World Economy.
19. http://gcr.weforum.org/gcr2010/.
20. http://www.conference-board.org/data/economydatabase/.
21. I am grateful to Jim O’Neill at Goldman Sachs for providing me with the relevant dataset.
22. Martin Wolf, ‘Will China’s Rise Be Peaceful?’, Financial Times, 16 November 2010.
23. Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, 27 November 2010.
24. Huntington, Clash of Civilizations, tables 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 4.3, 4.5, 4.6.
25. Cecchetti et al., ‘Future of Public Debt’.
26. All details from Ferguson, Cash Nexus.
27. Congressional Budget Office, ‘Supplemental Data for the Congressional Budget Office’s Long-Term Budget Outlook’ (June 2010).
28. Marès, ‘Sovereign Subjects’, Exhibit 2.
29. Sargent, ‘Ends of Four Big Inflations’.
30. Eichengreen, Exorbitant Privilege.
31. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90776/90883/7179010.html.
32. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE6A301Q20101104.
33. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-11-09/china-researcher-says-u-s-s-qe2-is-financial-protectionism.html.
34. http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt.
35. Author’s calculations from CBO data.
36. Congressional Budget Office, ‘The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update’ (August 2010), table 1.7.
37. Huntington, Clash of Civilizations.
38. Huntington, ‘Clash of Civilizations’, p. 22.
39. Sen, Identity and Violence; Berman, Terror and Liberalism. See also Edward Said, ‘The Clash of Ignorance’, Nation, 22 October 2001.
40. Tusicisny, ‘Civilizational Conflicts’.
41. Marshall and Gurr, Peace and Conflict, appendix, table 11.1.
42. See e.g. Luard, War in International Society.
43. David E. Sanger, ‘With Warning, Obama Presses China on Currency’, New York Times, 23 September 2010.
44. Alan Beattie, Joshua Chaffin and Kevin Brown, ‘Wen Warns against Renminbi Pressure’, Financial Times, 6 October 2010.
45. Ferguson and Schularick, ‘End of Chimerica’.
46. Jacques, When China Rules the World.
47. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2010 (London, 2010).
48. http://en.china.cn/content/d732706,cd7c6d,1912_6577.html.
49. Collier, Plundered Planet.
50. Raine, China’s African Challenges, p. 97.
51. Ibid., p. 164.
52. Economy, ‘Game Changer’, p. 149.
53. World Intellectual Property Organization, World Intellectual Property Indicators 2010 (Geneva, 2010): http://www.wipo.int/ipstats/en/statistics/patents/.
54. Mu Rongping, ‘China’, in UNESCO Science Report 2010, pp. 379–98.
55. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Economic Survey of the UK (October 2005).
56. Institution of Education Sciences, Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (2007).
57. Pew Global Attitudes Project, ‘The Chinese Celebrate their Roaring Economy, as They Struggle with its Costs’, 22 July 2008: http://pewglobal.org/2008/07/22/.
58. Nicholas Eberstadt, ‘China’s Family Planning Policy Goes Awry’, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 23 November 2010: http://www.aei.org/article/101389.
59. Economy, ‘Game Changer’.
60. Pew Research Center for People and the Press, ‘Public Sees a Future Full of Promise and Peril’, 22 June 2010: http://people-press.org/report/?pageid=1740.
61. Zakaria, Post-American World.
62. Rongping, ‘China’, p. 395.
63. Churchill, ‘Civilization’, pp. 45f.
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