Pakistan- the Balochistan Conundrum

by Tilak Devasher

  The report contained another alarming detail. The entire population of the two districts of Kohlu and Kohistan—in Balochistan and KPK, respectively—lived below the poverty level. These districts were joined by almost two dozen others, which had over 72 per cent of their populations living in poverty.10

  According to a 2016 report prepared by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI), titled ‘Multidimensional Poverty in Pakistan’, Balochistan was rapidly sliding back on all human development indicators. According to it, 71.2 per cent of the population in Balochistan was victim of multidimensional poverty. Rural areas were even worse where 84.6 population lived under stifling multidimensional poverty. This explained the pathetic state of human development indicators in the province.11

  The report held that while the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) could potentially boost economic activities, it also has the potential to further entrench existing inequalities by concentrating these opportunities in the already developed and least poor districts.12

  Moreover, the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) that has been giving over a billion dollars a year across the country to poor families,13 ‘… is systematically biased against what is by far the poorest province in the country’. Based on the 2017 census and BISP’s latest data, 16 per cent of Pakistani households received unconditional transfers from BISP. The coverage level in Punjab, which has the lowest poverty level, is the lowest of the provinces at 12 per cent. The percentage of Balochistan’s population covered by BISP should have been the highest given its poverty levels, but it is not. Only around 13 per cent of households in Balochistan were beneficiaries, though residents of Balochistan were more than twice as likely to be poverty-stricken as a resident of Punjab. However, 25 per cent of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s households and 22 per cent of the far richer Sindh received BISP transfers. To achieve KPK’s level of coverage, it is estimated that an additional 235,759 women in Balochistan should be getting a stipend. In other words, nearly a quarter million of Balochistan’s families were being deprived of what should rightfully be theirs.

  Kaiser Bengali, the first national coordinator of the BISP, notes that Balochistan’s share in the total BISP disbursements in 2014-15 was substantially lower than its population share, whereas one would expect the reverse, based on relative deprivation. The reason for this, according to him, is that a larger portion of Balochistan’s population wasn’t surveyed in the nationwide poverty census concluded in 2011 due to their living in isolated, inaccessible settlements across the vastness of Balochistan.14 Like in the case of the NFC award, such an obvious unjust BISP distribution has continued for more than five years without being addressed at the time of writing.

  Districts and Human Development Index (HDI)

  The grim picture of the persistent and continuing socio-economic deprivation in Balochistan has been recorded by a series of studies since the 1980s. These studies rank districts of Pakistan by development, deprivation or poverty levels. All of them show that districts in Balochistan have been consistently at the bottom and continue to be so. Some of these studies are:15

  Year of Study Authors Findings

  1982 Pasha & Hasan 9 out of 10 districts at the bottom of the ranking were from Balochistan

  1990 Pasha, Malik & Jamal 14 out of 20 districts at the bottom of the ranking were from Balochistan

  1996 Ghaus, Pasha & Ghaus 23 out of 30 districts at the bottom of the ranking were from Balochistan

  2001 Bengali et al 24 out of 26 districts, comprising 88 per cent of the population, were in ‘High Deprivation’ category

  2005 Jamal & Khan 8 out of 11 ‘Low Human Development Index’ (HDI) districts were in Balochistan

  The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) created the Human Development Index (HDI) to re-emphasize that people and their capabilities should be the ultimate criterion for assessing the development of a country or a region, and not economic growth alone. The UNDP/HDI is a composite index that measures the average achievements in a country/region based on three basic dimensions: a long and healthy life, knowledge and a decent standard of living. UNDP classifies countries into low, medium, high and very high level of development according to HDI magnitudes of <0.55, >= 0.55 but less than 0.7, >= 0.7 but less than 8, and >= 0.8 respectively.

  Based on ‘Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM)’ survey for the year 2014-15, a study carried out by the Social Policy and Development Centre (SPDC), Karachi, developed regional HDIs.16 On this basis, estimated HDI for Pakistan and the Provinces for 2014-15 was estimated as: Pakistan—0.524; Punjab—0.550; Sindh—0.506; KPK—0.476; Balochistan—0.407. Of the bottom fifteen districts according to the estimated values of HDI, two are in KPK (Tor Ghar and Kohistan) and two in Sindh (Kashmore and Tando Mohd Khan). The remaining eleven districts belong to Balochistan. No district of Punjab is placed in this cluster of bottom fifteen districts.17

  The top fifteen districts of Pakistan in terms of HDI consist of twelve districts in Punjab, one in Sindh (Karachi) and two in KPK (Abbottabad and Haripur). These districts lie in the category of medium level of development. Barring Karachi, all districts of Sindh and Balochistan belong to the low level of human development.18

  In Punjab, twenty districts are in the low level of development and sixteen in the medium; in Sindh, twenty-three districts fall in the low category and one in medium; in KPK, twenty-three districts are in low category and two in medium; and in Balochistan, all districts fall in the low HDI category. The lowest category district in Punjab is Rajanpur with an HDI of 0.425. This is higher than for twenty-four districts of Balochistan. There are only four districts in Balochistan that have a higher HDI than Rajanpur which is the lowest district in Punjab. In fact, the HDI of Dera Bugti, the lowest district in Balochistan, is 0.297 as against the 0.425 of the lowest district in Punjab.19

  The magnitude of HDI variations shows the extent of disparities in the level of human development. In fact, approximately 75 per cent of districts in Punjab in terms of HDIs are above Quetta, the capital of Balochistan.20 The figures also reveal intra-provincial inequalities. While the magnitude of districts’ HDIs in Punjab varies from 0.43 (Rajanpur) to 0.67 (Lahore), in Balochistan it varies from 0.297 (Dera Bugti) to 0.495 (Quetta). In KPK the variation is from 0.323 (Tor Garh) to 0.534 (Peshawar) and in Sindh it is from 0.343 (Kashmore) to 0.654 (Karachi).

  ESTIMATED HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDICES FOR THE DISTRICTS OF BALOCHISTAN

  National HDI 0.524

  Balochistan 0.407

  Dera Bugti 0.297

  Jhal Magsi 0.330

  Qila Abdullah 0.332

  Chagai 0.332

  Nasirabad 0.336

  Sheerani 0.338

  Harnai 0.350

  Barkhan 0.356

  Kohlu 0.360

  Bolan/Kachhi 0.360

  Jaffarabad 0.361

  Washuk 0.372

  Qila Saifullah 0.378

  Ziarat 0.388

  Awaran 0.388

  Kharan 0.392

  Musakhel 0.400

  Khuzdar 0.400

  Nushki 0.402

  Zhob 0.403

  Sibbi 0.413

  Lasbela 0.415

  Pishin 0.416

  Loralai 0.424

  Kalat 0.432

  Mastung 0.443

  Gwadar 0.492

  Quetta 0.496

  Food Security and Malnutrition

  According to a report, the thirteen most underfed districts in Pakistan were from Balochistan (minimum intake of food measured by calories). The entire generation of young children born in conflict in Dera Bugti in Balochistan was malnourished today. A recent report on malnutrition and food poverty disclosed that two out of three households in Balochistan could not afford a proper meal. Also, 83 per cent children in the province were facing severe malnourishment and had no access to health and education opportunities.21

  According to Kaiser Bengali, ‘I’ve forty years of resear
ch, I’ve worked all over Pakistan and the only place in Pakistan where I have found hunger is in Balochistan. There is no other place in Pakistan where I came face to face with hunger.’22

  The situation has deteriorated so much that in May 2017 the provincial health minister Mir Rehmat Baloch felt the need to call for the imposition of a nutrition emergency in Balochistan since the mother and child nutritional situation was very serious in the province. He added that according to a survey, 52 per cent of the children in the province suffered from stunting and 40 per cent were underweight.23 Nutrition is clearly neglected in Pakistan, especially in Balochistan. Over the decades, successive governments have paid scant attention to the issue, resulting in the current alarming statistics.

  Poor spending on healthcare, weak institutions, erratic funding by donors and a culture of negligence are cited as the main reasons for the existing situation. As the Daily Times put it, ‘Unfortunately, the ordinary citizens of Pakistan have been left at the mercy of a dysfunctional health system, negligible health facilities and often vacuous and unskilled practices of the health staff.’24

  Electricity

  Balochistan contributes 2,280 MW of power to the national grid.25 In peak season, the electricity demand in Balochistan is around 1,800 MW but the electricity grid in Balochistan can carry only 650 MW of electricity. Ironically, the province receives less electricity than what one power plant at Uch in Balochistan generates. Thus, despite surplus electricity being available in the province, Balochistan would not get more than 650 MW unless the transmission capacity in the province is enhanced. Unfortunately, the federal government till 2018 did not allocate adequate funds to improve the capacity of the provincial grid. As a result, all districts of Balochistan, except the capital Quetta, face load shedding of more than twelve hours per day26 despite being a surplus power producer.

  In the rural areas where the bulk of the population lives, electrification is only 25 per cent compared to 75 per cent in the rest of the country.27 As a result, the majority of the rural population still has no access to electricity and mostly use kerosene for lighting purposes. In 2008, it was estimated that Balochistan consumed about 4.1 TWh/year of electricity, which was only 5.6 per cent of the total electricity consumption in the country. Per capita yearly electricity consumption in the province was only 490 kWh.28

  Millennium Development Goals (MDG)

  Despite the tall claims, fancy promises and international commitments, Pakistan has not made much headway in fulfilling its MDG commitment. As per a UNDP report published in 2015, Balochistan was the worst performing province in most, if not all, areas of the MDGs in 2012-13. The report showed that at the current rate of progress, no MDG could be achieved in its entirety in the province. Its performance, while completely off track and below the national average for almost all indicators, was of grave concern in alleviating poverty, health-and education-related indicators. Forty per cent of children were underweight against a target of 20 per cent, reflecting a severe lag in performance. Fifty per cent of the population was below the minimum level of dietary energy consumption as against the target of 13 per cent. Similarly, in MDG 2 in all three indicators—net primary enrolment ratio, completion/survival rate and literacy rate—performance was lower than the national average and considerably behind the targets. Balochistan was also underperforming in the six indicators of child mortality with a staggeringly high infant mortality rate by national standards. In MDG 5 progress was especially lagging for all indicators—at 758 deaths per hundred thousand live births, the maternal mortality ratio deserved immediate attention.29

  Social Indicators

  Balochistan has the poorest social indicators in the country. Less educated and less urbanized than the rest of the country,30 the province also has a far greater dependency ratio. While 43.3 per cent of Pakistan’s population is below fifteen years of age, the proportion for Balochistan is 49.5 per cent. A younger population means a higher dependency ratio in terms of economic participation, and implies a larger need for educational and health facilities. A higher gender disparity in the labour force participation suggests an even greater dependency ratio for the province.

  The maternal mortality rate (MMR) in Pakistan is 276 (per 100,000 live births) whereas according to 2006-07 data, as noted earlier, Balochistan had the highest MMR—758 per 100,000 live births, almost three times the national average, while MMR for Punjab stood at 227 per 100,000 live births. The current MMR and female reproductive health demographics of Balochistan can only compete with war-torn Somalia with MMR of 1,000 and Liberia with MMR 770 per 100,000 live births.

  Only 43 per cent of children are fully immunized in the province against a national average of 78 per cent. According to the Extended Programme on Immunization (EPI) Coverage Survey 2001, only 35 per cent of the children in the age group of 12–23 months were fully immunized at that time, showing marked deterioration.31 Balochistan accounted for seven out of nine districts in Pakistan with the lowest full immunization rate, including the four districts with the worst record. Balochistan’s performance would look even worse without the exclusion of Dera Bugti and Kohlu in the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) sample due to security reasons. Additionally, UNICEF reported that there was no vaccination centre in 39 per cent of the Union councils in the province. In 2011, the province recorded the highest incidence for polio cases in the world: a total of sixty-two out of a worldwide 169.32

  The province also remains deprived of basic health facilities. High infant mortality rates (IMR) prevailed with 158 out of 1,000 children dying before five years of age. Even the Democratic Republic of Congo’s average of 126 is lower, while Pakistan’s national average of seventy is less than half. According to another report, the IMR in Balochistan is high with wide urban–rural and male–female variation. In rural areas, mortality rates for children under the age of five (U5MR) are at 164 per 1,000 live births, much higher than that of urban children (130 per 1,000 live births).33

  While Pakistan as a whole lags in the social sector, Balochistan lags far behind other provinces in all indicators. The poor state of social fabric has been largely due to the failure to translate economic growth into improvement of the lot of the people. It is understandable that with such a weak social sector—with low-level literacy rate and poor and inadequate healthcare services, for instance—Balochistan cannot embark on a better economic development path.

  Even the former chief justice of Pakistan, Mian Saqib Nisar, was moved to say that the situation in Balochistan was deplorable and, despite having huge mineral resources, the people of the province were demanding the provision of even basic rights. ‘I personally feel a sense of embarrassment while observing this situation about Balochistan,’ he said.34

  Comparison with Punjab

  A comparison of two neighbouring districts—Rajanpur, the poorest district of Punjab, and Dera Bugti, the poorest district in Balochistan—highlights the development crisis faced by Pakistan’s largest province. Dera Bugti has an approximate population of 320,000 while Rajanpur has almost two million people. The food security index for the former stands at 0.23 and the incidence of caloric poverty is at 73 per cent, while the latter has a food security index of 0.58 and a 55.3 per cent incidence of caloric poverty. Only 5 per cent of girls in rural Dera Bugti were able to enrol in primary school as compared to 62 per cent in Rajanpur. The literacy rate for the 10-plus age group is 16 per cent in Dera Bugti and 39 per cent in Rajanpur, while the female literacy rate for the same age group is 1 per cent in the former and 27 per cent in the latter. Dera Bugti is rich in natural gas but the gas extracted from there is transported to other parts of Pakistan. Dera Bugti is deprived of it.35

  TRENDS IN REGIONAL DISPARITY36

  Some commentators have sought to explain away the abysmal socio-economic development of Balochistan as compared with the other provinces of Pakistan as a result of its skewed land to population ratio. The greater geographical spread of the province means that the na
turally scattered population needs more resources for the same effect. Just as an example, 100 km of road in the more densely populated Punjab will serve more people than in Balochistan.

  Such an argument is, however, self-serving. Any enlightened government, or even a non-enlightened one, would try and bring all the provinces to one level rather than focusing only on the already developed ones, even if they have much larger populations. Thus, roads (and much longer ones) would have to be built in all the provinces. By allowing Balochistan to lag in the name of smaller population is indicative of treating the population of the province as second-class citizens. As a federation, the federal fiscal system is expected to bring about equalization among federating units, provision of public services and socio-economic development indicators.37 This is something that Pakistan has clearly failed in doing. The consequent feeling among the Baloch of being second-class citizens is thus quite natural.

  IV

  CHINESE GAMBIT

  11

  Gwadar

  THE WORD ‘GWADAR’ IS DERIVED from two Balochi words: Gwat (air) Darr (door or gateway). Taken together, Gwadar means ‘gateway of wind’.

  Gwadar is situated on a natural hammerhead-shaped peninsula forming two semicircular bays on either side on the south-western Arabian Sea coast of Pakistan. The western bay is known as the Paddi Zirr, and is generally shallow with an average depth of 12 feet, and a maximum depth of 30 feet. The eastern bay is the deep-water Demi Zirr harbour, where the Gwadar port is being built.

  Historically, Gwadar was a nodal point for trade between the Indus Valley and Mesopotamian civilizations for years. In the fifteenth century the Portuguese, led by Vasco da Gama, tried to set it on fire. The then Khan of Kalat gifted Gwadar to a Muscat sultan in 1783.1 Oman ruled the city for years and during its regime Gwadar was an active port. Remnants of structures built by the Omanis can be seen around the city even today. In 1958 Gwadar became part of Pakistan when the government formally purchased it from Oman at the cost of $3 million.2