Locus, February 2013

by Locus Publications

  We only list POD books if we actually see them here at Locus, and we only see a small fraction of the books available. Publishers are reluctant to send the relatively expensive review copies, particularly of reprint titles we won’t usually review. We don’t include the strictly POD publishers on most of our main lists; at least 79 publishers sent us only POD titles in 2012, up from 47 in 2011. Ten had five or more titles, up from six: Black Coat Press (25), Arc Manor/Phoenix Pick (19), Antellus (15), Ramble House (14), Lethe Press (13), Ticonderoga Publications (10), Samhain Publishing (8), Fairwood Press (5), Hippocampus Press (5), and Merry Blacksmith Press (5). We know there are many more POD books out there.

  We listed 2,951 titles of interest in 2012, 120 fewer than in 2011, a 4% drop. We listed 3,019 in our ‘‘Books Received’’ column, but those figures are adjusted at the end of the year. All the books counted here have been listed there, but not everything listed there is counted here. We delete associational books of no real SF interest, chapbooks, and UK books distributed in the US. Books published in 2011 but not seen until 2012 are included, as are 2013 books seen in December 2012. Where there are simultaneous hardcover and trade paperback editions, we count only one, usually the hardcovers. If we see only one state or edition, we note the possible existence of the other(s) in ‘‘Books Received’’, but don’t count them. Editions with multiple bindings and states are only counted once, unless there are differences in the text. Completely rewritten books are counted as new, but those with minor revisions or corrections are considered reprints. First American editions are considered new, even if the UK editions have already been listed in the ‘‘British Books’’ column. Omnibus volumes are counted as new even if all the contents have previously appeared separately; however, if a book is broken down into multiple volumes they’re considered reprints unless there is significant added material.

  Trade and mass-market paperbacks are distinguished (almost) solely by the physical size of the book, rather than the returnability of the product, the criterion used by most publishers and booksellers. Anything larger or smaller than a standard mass-market rack size is considered a trade paperback; the major exception is the ‘‘premium’’ or ‘‘tall rack-size’’ format, which retains the rack width, but is taller; we’re counting those as mass-market. Some publishers produce mass-market-size books marketed as trade paperback, but we generally count them as mass-market.

  New titles fell 5% to a three-year low at 2,030. Reprints dropped only 1% to 921, their lowest point since 2000. The percentage of new books fell to 69%. Graph #1 compares the publishing history for new and reprint titles since 1979. We’ve always considered a 50/50 split ideal, since many originals only earn out their advances if reissued. There are always more reprints than we count, since publishers rarely announce reissues (or send them to us for counting), and they’re hard to spot unless there’s a change in cover or price, and struggling brick-and-mortar bookstores aren’t carrying as much backlist as they used to. AAP sales figures suggest e-books are taking much of the niche that used to belong to mass-market paperback sales; we hope to have a better feel for that next year.

  Hardcovers went up by a slim 1%. Original harcovers hit a new high with four more titles than last year, a less-than-1% increase. Hardcover reprints also rose by four titles, a 7% increase over last year. We saw six reprints from Science Fiction Book Club (SFBC), which hasn’t been sending us their full list since 2008; they had well over 100 hardcover reprint titles scheduled for 2012, as usual.)

  HarperCollins had the most original hardcovers with 109, up from 93; hardcovers were 67% of their original books, up from 64%. Tor was the top-ten publisher with the highest percentage of their originals in hardcover with 76%, up from 74%. Five of the top ten had hardcovers as more than half of their original books, the same as last year: Tor with 76%, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt with 74%, Random House and HarperCollins both with 67%, and Baen with 55%. Harlequin was again the top-ten publisher with the lowest percentage, 6%. Overall, hardcovers were 40% of all original books, up from 38%. We saw two POD hardcovers (both original), down from seven.

  Trade paperbacks dropped a slim 1% to 1,343 titles. Originals fell 3% but reprints rose 3%. The top ten publishers were evenly divided between those who increased or decreased their number of trade paperbacks. Penguin Group USA and HarperCollins tied for the lead with 93 each.

  Mass-market paperbacks fell 14% overall to 733 titles, their lowest point since 2002. Originals took the biggest hit, down 17% to 426; reprints fell 8% to 307, their lowest point since 1974. Media tie-ins were 12% of original paperbacks with 53 titles, down from 14% last year; paranormal romances were 36%, down from 38%. Together, tie-ins and paranormal romances accounted for 48% of mass-market originals, down from 52% last year, and 54% the year before. Only two major publishers had paperbacks as more than half their originals: Harlequin/Worldwide with 63% and and DAW with 53%. Numerically, Penguin Group USA remains the leader in mass-market originals with 114, followed by Harlequin/Worldwide with 45, Simon & Schuster/Pocket with 43, HarperCollins with 31, Random House with 26, and Rebellion/Solaris US with 24.

  Penguin Group USA once again had the most total books published with 357 titles, down from 431. Their total output was 24% hardcover, 26% trade paperback, and 50% mass market; their original titles were 34% hardcover, 20% trade paperback, and 47% mass market. Random House moved up to second with 263 titles, up from 228; they had 39% hardcover, 32% trade paperback, and 29% mass market; original titles were 67% hardcover, 15% trade paperback, and 17% mass market. HarperCollins dropped back to third with 253 titles, down from 257; overall they were 45% hardcover, 37% trade paperback, and 18% mass market; originals were 67% hardcover, 14% trade paperback, and 19% mass market. Overall, books were 30% hardcover, 46% trade paperback, and 25% mass market; originals were 40% hardcover, 39% trade paperback, and 21% mass market.

  New titles are broken down by subject in Chart #3. The total count doesn’t quite match our count by publisher; the two are compiled separately and discrepancies creep in. We counted 1,195 new novels, up minutely from 1,194 last year; they were 59% of all original titles, up from 56% last year; and 40% of the total books. That number includes 370 young-adult novels, but does not include another 294 paranormal romance novels and 89 tie-in novels.

  Numerically, original SF and fantasy novels were up, while horror dropped. Fantasy novels led again, up 2% to 670 titles, 33% of the new books total. SF novels followed, up 4% with 318 titles, 16% of new books. Horror followed, down 10% to 207 titles, 10% of new books. Media tie-ins were down 12% to 104 titles, 5% of new books. Paranormal romances were down 25% to 314 titles, 15% of new books.

  The 318 original SF novels include 89 young-adult novels, 28% of the new SF total, up from 24% in 2011, 20% in 2010, and 16% in 2009 — a long surge thanks to all the YA dystopias. They also include 41 SF first novels, 13% of the SF total, the same as last year.

  Fantasy’s 670 original novels include 222 YA novels, 33% of the new fantasy total, down from 35%. We saw 67 fantasy first novels, 10% of the fantasy total, up from 9%.

  The 207 original horror novels include 59 YA novels, 29% of the new horror total. At least 37 (63%) of the YA horror novels were part of series, up from 41% last year. We saw 20 horror first novels, 10% of the new horror total. We try to limit our count to supernatural horror; any non-supernatural horror that creeps in is offset somewhat by all the small-press horror that we miss. We try to be selective about classifying vampires, werewolves, zombies, and so on as horror, what with all the paranormal mysteries and romances; still, we counted 22 original vampire horror novels (down from 37); paranormal romances add at least 41 more new vampire novels. Zombies featured prominently in 25 original horror novels (several counted as ‘‘dark humor’’, however); overall we noted zombies in 36 new books including paranormals, SF, fantasy, anthologies, and collections.

  Young-adult originals were down two to 475 titles. Fantasy led for the 17th year in a row with 222 titles, 47% of the
new YA total. Paranormal romance was second with 105 titles (22%), followed by SF with 89 (19%), and horror with 59 (12%). Vampires remain a leading trend with 25 titles (13 paranormal romance) but share the lead with dystopias (SF, fantasy, and other). Trailing well back were fairies/fae (9), dragons (8), zombies (7), and werewolves/shapeshifters (7).

  We saw 138 first novels, up from 128. The accuracy of this figure is questionable; some publishers won’t admit a book is a first novel, while others make authors with flagging sales use pseudonyms and promote them as new discoveries. Fantasy first novels still lead with 67 titles, up from 60. SF followed with 41, the same as last year; horror had 20, up from seven; paranormal romances trailed with 10, down from 20. Major publishers were responsible for 108 first novels, or 78%, up from 61%. HarperCollins led with 17, followed by Penguin Group USA with 12, Simon & Schuster with 11, and Tor with ten. We identified 11 first novels as POD, down from 12.

  Original media-related titles dropped 12% to 104 titles, 5% of the new books total, down from 6%. Only fiction titles are counted here, with 89 novels plus eight omnibuses, five anthologies, and two collections. We don’t count media-related non-fiction except for a few items of special interest (art, literary criticism) counted as regular non-fiction. Black Library led with 34 gaming tie-ins, the same as last year: 13 Warhammer and 21 Warhammer 40,000 titles. Simon & Schuster/Pocket was second with 20 titles including 14 Star Trek tie-ins and five gaming tie-ins. Del Rey had 12: five gaming tie-ins and seven Star Wars tie-ins. Wizards of the Coast had 11 gaming tie-ins, ten in the Forgotten Realms world and one Dungeons and Dragons. Paizo had six gaming tie-ins in their Pathfinder Tales series; Fantasy Flight Publishing had five gaming tie-ins.

  Paranormal romances had 314 new titles, down from 416. That number includes 16 anthologies and four omnibuses. It can be tricky to decide which titles belong in this category, unless they are specifically marketed as paranormal romances. All have major SF or fantasy elements, but also significant romance (in some cases, erotic content). Some are packaged as urban fantasy or paranormal mysteries, but have enough romance to qualify. Penguin Group USA leads with 82 titles, including 26 under the Berkley Sensation imprint; Harlequin is second with 48, followed by Simon & Schuster/Pocket with 26, Random House with 25, Sourcebooks with 19, and St. Martin’s with 18. Many paranormals are set in worlds where multiple supernatural species co-exist, but vampires played a dominant role in 43 titles, angels in 20, and werewolves in 11. Punny titles seem to be in abeyance currently (or maybe they’ve all moved to the mystery section, where you’ll find Blood Bath and Beyond.) Still, among the more humorous titles this year we find The Care and Feeding of Stray Vampires, Witchful Thinking, The Fangover, and The Lady Is a Vamp.

  Our grab-bag Art/Humor/Poetry category ended up with 47 titles, up from 45. This year’s mix included 22 graphic novels, seven poetry books, five books showcasing the work of individual artists, and three overviews of art in the field.

  New anthologies dropped 11% to 111 titles. Of those, 63 had mostly original stories. Another five anthologies were counted with the media tie-ins; 16 anthologies were counted with the paranormal romances, the same as last year; of those five were Anonymously edited. It’s hard to define a ‘‘theme’’ anthology, but excluding romances and tie-ins there were at least 70 anthologies with specific themes, two in shared worlds. There were 14 with the word ‘‘best’’ in the title; 12 were year’s bests, up from eight.

  We saw 132 new collections, up from 111. Collections aren’t categorized as SF, fantasy, or horror, but we did count six YA collections, down from eight. Small presses published 115 collections, up from 89; they were 87% of the collections, up from 80% last year. Subterranean again had the most titles with 17, followed by Ramble House with ten, and Penguin Group USA, ChiZine, Small Beer Press, and Ticonderoga Publications, each with five.

  Reference had 26 titles, down from 27. History/Criticism had 42, down from 47. We saw 56 omnibus editions, down from 57; another eight were counted as media-related and four with paranormal romances, the same as last year.

  Charts #1 and #2 show the top publishers for total and original books. The Total Books Published chart includes all publishers with five or more books, with the exception of mainly print-on-demand publishers, included with the rest under Miscellaneous. In the charts, we try to make current figures more compatible with past figures by adjusting older figures to reflect combinations; there were no real changes this year. The main list has 53 publishers with five or more books; new or returning to the list this year are Amazon Publishing, Bethany House, Counterpoint/Soft Skull, Entangled Publishing, Fantasy Flight Publishing, Grove/Atlantic, HiLoBooks, Library of America, Medallion, and SFBC.

  We saw books from 222 Miscellaneous publishers, down from 225 in 2011. Not all the Miscellaneous publishers are small press, but most of the small press is under Miscellaneous. Twelve small-press publishers made it onto the main list: Aqueduct Press, CD Publications, ChiZine Publications, Hades/EDGE, HiLoBooks, Library of America, Night Shade, PM Press, Prime Books, Small Beer, Subterranean, and Tachyon.

  Chart #1 shows the top publishers’ totals for the past nine years. Penguin Group USA took top spot for the ninth year in a row with 357 titles. Random House moved up two places into second place with 263, knocking HarperCollins (253) back a notch to third and Tor (222). Below that, the usual publishers shuffled around a bit; Houghton Mifflin Harcourt moved onto the list in ninth place. Three top-ten publishers increased their output: Random House, St. Martin’s, and Houghton Mifflin Harcourt; the rest all decreased it. (We only saw a fraction of the scheduled titles from SFBC; if we’d seen them all they would have placed sixth or seventh.)

  The top publishers of original books (first and first US editions) are shown on Chart #2. Penguin Group USA leads here, too, with 244 new titles; HarperCollins moved up a notch to second with 162, followed by Random House in third with 149, S&S/Pocket holding steady in fourth with 124, and Tor in fifth with 97. Below that publishers shuffled around a bit. New to the list is Disney/Hyperion with 27. Nine of the publishers on this list increased their output, six decreased it, and three held steady.

  Major publishers’ percentage of imprints can give an indication of profits. Hard/soft/digital deals and other variables complicate matters, but it’s still generally cheaper to do a reprint than a new book. Graph 1: Publishing History shows the relative numbers between new books and reprints. Reprint numbers came close to new book numbers in 2000; since then, reprint numbers have fallen behind. The gap between originals and reprints shrank slightly this year, as the proportion of reprints (the opposite of the percentage of new books shown on the Cumulative Book Survey) went up from 30% to 31% this year.

  Of the top ten SF publishers, five increased their proportion of reprints, four decreased theirs, and one held steady, the same as the last two years. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt had the highest percentage of reprints with 58%, followed by Baen with 57% and Tor with 56%. The rest had less than 50% reprints. Harlequin, which primarily publishes mass market originals, again trailed the rest with only 8% reprints (up from 5%).

  The chart of Total Books Published by SF Imprint shows figures for the separate SF imprints, apart from larger publishers’ non-specialty lines. Imprints, dedicated to the genre with editors who know the field, may better represent the state of SF than the larger publishing picture. We list all imprints (plus some small presses) with ten or more titles. Tor returns in first place with 216 titles, more than twice the 89 titles of Ace, again in second place. Baen returns in third with 75; below that imprints shifted around as usual. Returning to the list is SFBC, despite our having a small portion of their titles; dropping off the list are Abaddon US, EDGE Science Fiction and Fantasy, Luna, Spectra, and Tachyon.

  QUALITY

  Our only fair criterion for judging quality is the number of books that make the Locus Recommended Reading list (pages 38-40) as shown in Chart #4. We recommended 174 titles, up from 152. This year’s count includes thr
ee novellas and two novelettes published as separate books, as well as two e-books and one audiobook. We list both US and UK publishers; if a book had an earlier first English-language edition in another country, we list that publisher as well. We recommended books from 84 publishers, up from 66 last year, including 25 from the UK, five from Australia, one from Canada, and one from India. Orion/Gollancz had the most recommended titles with 16, followed by Hachette/Orbit US with 13, and Little, Brown UK/Orbit and Tor with 12 each.

  COMMERCIAL SUCCESS

  Bestseller lists give us our best indicator of commercial success, since publishers rarely give out figures. Charts #5 and #6 show which publishers dominated the lists, with percentages based on the number of times each publisher had a book appear. The chain lists are kept separate from the Locus list to help track variations. The Locus list is based primarily on reports from specialty stores, and should reflect a more knowledgeable readership. The figures here do not include media and gaming-related titles, which are dominated by just a few publishers. Star Wars books from Del Rey and Star Trek titles from Pocket dominate the media tie-ins; Black Library US, Tor, and Wizards of the Coast duke it out for top spot in gaming.

  The top three spots on the Locus list went to the same publishers as last year. Random House/Del Rey remained on top thanks primarily to George R.R. Martin’s series A Song of Ice and Fire. Penguin Group USA followed in second, and Tor in third. Below that the usual players shuffled around a bit. New to the list are Scholastic in eighth place and Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, tied for ninth with Night Shade.

  The chain lists represent the broader book market, though with the demise of Borders we only had lists from Barnes & Noble in 2012. The top three publishers repeat here, though Random House’s lead is even larger than on the Locus list. New to the list is Simon & Schuster in seventh place; DAW dropped off the list.