The Raging 2020s

by Alec Ross

  But if things do change, the rights-respecting models of the democracies will continue to hold their appeal, as abuses made possible by powerful AI and surveillance technologies are regulated. A multi-stakeholder model can effectively balance the rights of citizens and the responsibilities of companies and countries to avoid a digital dystopia. Instead of allowing for a permanent underclass, upward economic and social mobility—the stuff of the American dream—will be renewed. A new wave of immigration from places navigating climate crises like the Philippines will be welcomed and well managed.

  Scarred by the experience that prompted them to move in the first place, the Filipino family will likely want to move where they are less likely to encounter additional extreme weather events brought on by climate change. If nothing changes, this will mean that these safer places will become increasingly scarce and therefore increasingly expensive. The logic of market forces holds that as severe droughts and storms destroy the habitability of certain regions, both people and capital will flock to places that are more livable and safe. Simply stated, there may be another billion people on earth, but there will be fewer places for them to live, creating more megacities and slums.

  The countermeasure to this possibility is an international push to address the climate crisis over the next decade. This is an all-hands-on-deck issue that requires public and private investment, so that the world can resoundingly move away from carbon combustion as a means to power our world. The combined efforts of leading nations and companies should fund a trillion-dollar Manhattan Project–style push for clean energy production and distribution that the whole world would benefit from. This sounds bold, and it is—but it is entirely possible and abundantly worth it, for elites, climate migrants, and everybody else.

  In the background of these two visions of the future is the role of the world’s elites. If nothing changes, the escalating rage will cause the world’s most powerful people to consciously decouple from their home countries and move their money, their families, and their sense of citizenship away from anywhere there is trouble and toward the soft landings that await them in the financial and entertainment centers that have been built for them. Their ability to buy the public policies they want from government will have increased, so their winner-takes-all business models do not need to fear regulation or antitrust measures. Since they are the shareholders, they will be the sole winners of shareholder capitalism and their winnings will grow bigger, year in and year out. The problems back home and those faced by working-class or climate-vulnerable people like our Filipino family will grow more distant and abstract.

  That does not need to happen either, though, and it ought not require any sort of moral or spiritual awakening. Our elites became elites in the first place because of capitalism, and the smartest among them recognize that in order to continue to live as well as they have in the past, more people need to live better; and that means repairing how capitalism works. This in turn means focusing more on the long term and less on the short term. When they and their companies pay taxes, it gives government the resources it needs to invest in the research and development that will save us from climate change calamity. It means that access to strong education, housing, and health care will be available to more people. This is ultimately in the self-interest of elites themselves, but it means optimizing for the long term, not the short term. Being elite in a world where there is more access to opportunity and greater well-being is better than being elite in a world burning around you.

  We are currently edging toward the more frightening outcome, but the positive version of 2030 is not beyond our reach. We can change course over the next decade by enacting a series of interlocking reforms—reforms that will build a better contract for the whole planet. In short, these involve several key steps including replacing shareholder capitalism with stakeholder capitalism, reforming the international tax system, expanding safety nets that meet the reality of work in the 21st century, and pushing now for the transition to clean energy.

  Each of the ideas works in concert. Each makes the next more attainable and likely. Killing off shareholder capitalism enables us to end tax havens, which gives governments the resources to fight climate change, which means less climate migration. Ending stock buybacks means companies have more money to pay workers in both cash and stock, which means less long-term dependency on safety net programs and greater worker well-being, which makes authoritarian control of society less appealing. The magic of these fixes is that they work together. None is unachievable, and progress toward one makes the others that much more possible.

  Together, their impact will be enormous. What we need is to take our existing social contract—a threadbare remnant of the 19th and 20th centuries—and repair it to meet the 21st century. There are two potential paths ahead of us. One is easy to start—all we have to do is nothing—but it leads to hardship and more anger. The second requires bold action by citizens, companies, and governments alike. But it lets us look to the future with hope, and leaves rage to the past.

  NOTES

  The page numbers for the notes that appeared in the print version of this title are not in your e-book. Please use the search function on your e-reading device to search for the relevant passages documented or discussed.

  INTRODUCTION

  government-funded university research: “6. Bar Codes—Nifty 50,” National Science Foundation, April 2000, https://www.nsf.gov/about/history/nifty50/barcodes.jsp.

  $49 billion on stock buybacks: Philip van Doorn, “Opinion: Airlines and Boeing Want a Bailout—but Look How Much They’ve Spent on Stock Buybacks,” Marketwatch, March 22, 2020, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/airlines-and-boeing-want-a-bailout-but-look-how-much-theyve-spent-on-stock-buybacks-2020-03-18.

  nearly 75 percent of Americans worked on farms: Stanley Lebergott, “Labor Force and Employment, 1800–1960,” in Output, Employment, and Productivity in the United States after 1800, ed. Dorothy S. Brady (National Bureau of Economic Research, 1966), 117–204, https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c1567/c1567.pdf.

  about 17 percent of the population in England and Wales: Christopher Watson, “Trends in World Urbanisation,” in Proceedings of the First International Conference on Urban Pests, ed. K. B. Wildey and Wm. H. Robinson (1992), http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.522.7409&rep=rep1&type=pdf.

  Over the last thirty years: Matt Bruenig, “Top 1% up $21 Trillion. Bottom 50% down $900 Billion,” People’s Policy Project, June 14, 2019, https://www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2019/06/14/top-1-up-21-trillion-bottom-50-down-900-billion/.

  If the level of inequality: Carter C. Price and Kathryn A. Edwards, “Trends in Income from 1975 to 2018” (Working Paper WR-A516-1, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, 2020), https://doi.org/10.7249/WRA516-1.

  1: SHAREHOLDER AND STAKEHOLDER CAPITALISM

  Like 1.6 million Americans: “Statistics about Diabetes,” American Diabetes Association, accessed June 4, 2020, https://www.diabetes.org/resources/statistics/statistics-about-diabetes.

  Nearly a century earlier: “The History of a Wonderful Thing We Call Insulin,” American Diabetes Association, July 1, 2019, https://www.diabetes.org/blog/history-wonderful-thing-we-call-insulin.

  Soon after, the trio visited: “First Use of Insulin in Treatment of Diabetes on This Day in 1922,” Diabetes UK, January 11, 2010, https://www.diabetes.org.uk/about_us/news_landing_page/first-use-of-insulin-in-treatment-of-diabetes-88-years-ago-today.

  Back then, most people with Type 1: “First Use of Insulin in Treatment of Diabetes,” https://www.diabetes.org.uk/about_us/news_landing_page/first-use-of-insulin-in-treatment-of-diabetes-88-years-ago-today.

  Realizing the implications: Craig Idlebrook, “Selling a Lifetime of Insulin for $3,” Insulin Nation, August 7, 2015, https://insulinnation.com/treatment/medicine-drugs/selling-lifetime-insulin/; “Inflation Calculator,” Bank of Canada, accessed June 4, 2020, https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/related/inflation-calculator/; “CAD to USD Currency
Converter,” RBC Bank, accessed June 4, 2020, https://www.rbcbank.com/cgi-bin/tools/cadusd-foreign-exchange-calculator/start.cgi.

  The University of Toronto: Idlebrook, “Selling a Lifetime of Insulin for $3,” https://insulinnation.com/treatment/medicine-drugs/selling-lifetime-insulin/.

  Together, they make approximately $60,000: Andrea Corley, interview with Amy Martyn, May 1, 2020.

  Then the Corleys discovered: Andrea Corley, interview.

  Dozens of countries: “The 2021 STC Health Index,” GlobalResidenceIndex, accessed January 2, 2021, https://globalresidenceindex.com/hnwi-index/health-index/.

  Among the world’s most developed countries: Health at a Glance 2019: OECD Indicators (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2020), figure 5.1, https://doi.org/10.1787/888934015619.

  Two countries: Health at a Glance 2019: OECD Indicators, figure 5.1, https://doi.org/10.1787/888934015619; Aaron E. Carroll and Austin Frakt, “The Best Health Care System in the World: Which One Would You Pick?” New York Times, September 18, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/18/upshot/best-health-care-system-country-bracket.html; Dylan Scott, “The Netherlands Has Universal Health Insurance—and It’s All Private,” Vox, January 17, 2020, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/17/21046874/netherlands-universal-health-insurance-private.

  In others, like Germany and Chile: Health at a Glance 2019: OECD Indicators, figure 5.1, https://doi.org/10.1787/888934015619.

  Approximately three in five Americans: Edward R. Berchick, Jessica C. Barnett, and Rachel D. Upton, Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2018, US Census Bureau, November 2019, p. 3, https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2019/demo/p60-267.pdf.

  Eventually, the Corley family: Andrea Corley, interview.

  In 2017, Alec Smith: Nicole Smith-Holt, interview with Amy Martyn, April 30, 2020.

  More than 90 percent: Ryan Knox, “What Is Needed to Improve the Affordability of Insulin?,” T1International (blog), December 16, 2015, https://www.t1international.com/blog/2015/12/16/how-do-we-improve-affordability-insulin/.

  On more than a dozen occasions: Robert Langreth, “Hot Drugs Show Sharp Price Hikes in Shadow Market,” Bloomberg, May 6, 2015, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-06/diabetes-drugs-compete-with-prices-that-rise-in-lockstep.

  In 2001, a vial of insulin: Danielle K. Roberts, “The Deadly Cost of Insulin,” American Journal of Managed Care, June 10, 2019, https://www.ajmc.com/contributor/danielle-roberts/2019/06/the-deadly-costs-of-insulin.

  A Yale University study: Darby Herkert, Pavithra Vijayakumar, Jing Luo, et al., “Cost-Related Insulin Underuse among Patients with Diabetes,” JAMA Internal Medicine 179, no. 1 (2019): 112–14, https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2018.5008.

  Between 2017 and 2019: “High Insulin Costs Are Killing Americans,” Right Care Alliance, accessed April 30, 2020, https://rightcarealliance.org/actions/insulin/.

  Like Alec, Jesy Boyd: Cindy Sherer Boyd, interview with Amy Martyn, May 2, 2020.

  But the following month: Cindy Sherer Boyd, interview.

  In 1962, in his book: Milton Friedman, “A Friedman Doctrine—The Social Responsibility of Business Is to Increase Its Profits,” New York Times, September 13, 1970, https://www.nytimes.com/1970/09/13/archives/a-friedman-doctrine-the-social-responsibility-of-business-is-to.html.

  The United States had been the world leader: Peri E. Arnold, “William Taft: Domestic Affairs,” University of Virginia Miller Center, accessed July 20, 2020, https://millercenter.org/president/taft/domestic-affairs.

  In the aftermath of World War II: Tim Wu, The Curse of Bigness: Antitrust in the New Gilded Age (New York: Columbia Global Reports, 2018), 79–80.

  In the United States: Susan Lund, James Manyika, Liz Hilton Segel, André Dua, Bryan Hancock, Scott Rutherford, and Brent Macon, The Future of Work in America: People and Places, Today and Tomorrow (McKinsey Global Institute, July 11, 2019), https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/the-future-of-work-in-america-people-and-places-today-and-tomorrow; Svet Smit, Tilman Tacke, Susan Lund, James Manyika, and Lea Thiel, The Future of Work in Europe (McKinsey Global Institute, June 10, 2020), https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/the-future-of-work-in-europe.

  In 2019, the five hundred largest companies: “Fortune 500,” Fortune, accessed July 3, 2020, https://fortune.com/fortune500/.

  That year, the gross domestic product: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Gross Domestic Product (GDP),” FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, accessed July 3, 2020, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP.

  When the Fortune 500 list: “Gross Domestic Product (GDP),” https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP; “Full List 1955,” Fortune, accessed July 3, 2020, https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500_archive/full/1955/.

  Four airlines: “Airline Domestic Market Share April 2019–March 2020,” US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, accessed July 15, 2020, https://www.transtats.bts.gov/.

  This consolidation has reduced: Jack Nicas, “Airline Consolidation Hits Smaller Cities Hardest,” Wall Street Journal, September 10, 2015, https://www.wsj.com/articles/airline-consolidation-hits-smaller-cities-hardest-1441912457.

  provide cell service to nearly 70 percent: “Wireless Subscriptions Market Share by Carrier in the U.S. from 1st Quarter 2011 to 3rd Quarter 2019,” Statista, accessed July 6, 2020, https://www.statista.com/statistics/199359/market-share-of-wireless-carriers-in-the-us-by-subscriptions/.

  four in five American cable subscribers: “2.5 Million Added Broadband in 2019,” Leichtman Research Group, press release, March 5, 2020, https://www.leichtmanresearch.com/2-5-million-added-broadband-in-2019/.

  more than 70 percent of beer sales: Wu, The Curse of Bigness, 117.

  more than 90 percent: “Search Engine Market Share in 2020,” Oberlo, accessed July 6, 2020, https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/search-engine-market-share.

  Matt Stoller’s research has shown: Matt Stoller, “A Land of Monopolists: From Portable Toilets to Mixed Martial Arts,” Big (Substack), July 10, 2020, https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/a-land-of-monopolists-from-portable; Matt Stoller, “Weird Monopolies and Roll-Ups: Horse Shows, School Spirit, Settlers of Catan, and Jigsaw Puzzles,” Big (Substack), July 18, 2020, https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/weird-monopolies-and-roll-ups-horse.

  more than two hundred chickens: Mark Eichmann, “Delaware’s Growing Poultry Industry,” WHYY, August 11, 2014, https://whyy.org/articles/delawares-growing-poultry-industry/.

  Drive around the peninsula: Dave Layfield, interview with Jack Corrigan, July 17, 2020.

  In the aftermath of massive farm failures: Sam Moore, “U.S. Farmers during the Great Depression,” Farm Collector, November 2011, https://www.farmcollector.com/farm-life/u-s-farmers-during-great-depression; “Farming and Farm Income,” US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service, December 2, 2020, https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/farming-and-farm-income/.

  However, in the 1970s: Bill Ganzel, “Farm Boom of the 1970s,” Living History Farm, 2009, https://livinghistoryfarm.org/farminginthe70s/money_02.html.

  “Get big or get out”: Ganzel, “Farm Boom of the 1970s,” https://livinghistoryfarm.org/farminginthe70s/money_02.html.

  At the time, Wisconsin senator: B. Drummond Ayres Jr., “Rise of Corporate Farming a Worry to Rural America,” New York Times, December 5, 1971, https://www.nytimes.com/1971/12/05/archives/rise-of-corporate-farming-a-worry-to-rural-america-rise-of-the.html.

  In 1979, the US: Bill Ganzel, “Afghan Boycott,” Living History Farm, 2009, https://livinghistoryfarm.org/farminginthe70s/money_06.html.

  By 1984, the total debt: Kurt Lawton, “Taking a Look Back at the 1980s Farm Crisis and Its Impacts,” Farm Progress, August 22, 2016, https://www.farmprogress.com/marketing/taking-look-back-1980s-farm-crisis-and-its-impacts.

  Thousands of small farmers: Tom Philpott,
“A Reflection on the Lasting Legacy of 1970s USDA Secretary Earl Butz,” Grist, February 8, 2008, https://grist.org/article/the-butz-stops-here/.

  The consolidation continued: Roberto Ferdman, “The Decline of the Small American Family Farm in One Chart,” Washington Post, September 16, 2014, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/09/16/the-decline-of-the-small-american-family-farm-in-one-chart/.

  The government does not: “Animal Feeding Operations,” US Department of Agriculture, accessed July 7, 2020, https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/main/national/plantsanimals/livestock/afo/.

  Over the last sixty years: “Per Capita Consumption of Poultry and Livestock, 1960 to Forecast 2021, in Pounds,” National Chicken Council, June 2020, accessed July 19, 2020, https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/per-capita-consumption-of-poultry-and-livestock-1965-to-estimated-2012-in-pounds/.

  The Layfield family operated: “Animal Feeding Operations,” https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/main/national/plantsanimals/livestock/afo/; Dave Layfield, interview.

  produced approximately half of the chicken: Kim Souza, “Tyson Foods Maintains Its Top Ranking in Poultry Production,” Talk Business & Politics, March 20, 2019, https://talkbusiness.net/2019/03/tyson-foods-maintains-its-top-ranking-in-poultry-production/.

  Under this model, the integrators: Dave Layfield, interview.