The Raging 2020s

by Alec Ross

  China’s foray into artificial intelligence: Sean O’Connor, “How Chinese Companies Facilitate Technology Transfer from the United States” (staff research report, U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, May 6, 2019), https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/How%20Chinese%20Companies%20Facilitate%20Tech%20Transfer%20from%20the%20US.pdf.

  Foreign companies that want to do business: Sean O’Connor, “How Chinese Companies Facilitate Technology Transfer from the United States,” https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/How%20Chinese%20Companies%20Facilitate%20Tech%20Transfer%20from%20the%20US.pdf.

  when Uber launched in China: Leslie Hook, “Uber’s Battle for China,” Financial Times Weekend Magazine, June 2016, https://ig.ft.com/sites/uber-in-china/.

  He made frequent visits to the country: Leslie Hook, “Uber’s Battle for China,” https://ig.ft.com/sites/uber-in-china/; Ben Chiang, “Baidu Partners with Uber,” Uber, December 17, 2014, https://www.uber.com/en-CN/newsroom/%e7%99%be%e5%ba%a6%e3%80%81uber%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c-baidu-partners-with-uber; William C. Kirby, “The Real Reason Uber Is Giving Up in China,” Harvard Business Review, August 2, 2016, https://hbr.org/2016/08/the-real-reason-uber-is-giving-up-in-china.

  “Travis structured something that worked”: Shervin Pishevar, interview with Alec Ross and Jack Corrigan, April 30, 2020.

  The two companies entered “a massive war”: Shervin Pishevar, interview.

  By 2016, Uber China had expanded: Zheping Huang, “China Finally Made Ride-Hailing Legal, in a Way That Could Destroy Uber’s Business Model,” Quartz, July 29, 2016, https://qz.com/745337/china-finally-made-ride-hailing-legal-in-a-way-that-could-destroy-ubers-business-model/.

  The company received billions of dollars: Heather Timmons, “All the Things That Went Wrong for Uber in China,” Quartz, August 1, 2016, https://qz.com/746990/all-the-things-that-went-wrong-for-uber-in-china/.

  In July 2016, the Chinese government: Kirby, “The Real Reason Uber Is Giving Up in China,” https://hbr.org/2016/08/the-real-reason-uber-is-giving-up-in-china.

  Uber China was sold to Didi: Alyssa Abkowitz and Rick Carew, “Uber Sells China Operations to Didi Chuxing,” Wall Street Journal, August 1, 2016, https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-s-didi-chuxing-to-acquire-rival-uber-s-chinese-operations-1470024403.

  After beating out Uber: Sarah Dai, “‘China’s Uber’ Ramps Up AI Arms Race, Says It Will Open Third Deep Learning Research Lab,” South China Morning Post, January 26, 2018, https://www.scmp.com/tech/start-ups/article/2130793/didi-chuxing-ramps-artificial-intelligence-arms-race-says-it-will; Jonathan Cheng, “China’s Ride-Hailing Giant Didi to Test Beijing’s New Digital Currency,” Wall Street Journal, July 8, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-ride-hailing-giant-didi-to-test-beijings-new-digital-currency-11594206564.

  As of 2019, China has deployed approximately one: Thomas Ricker, “The US, Like China, Has about One Surveillance Camera for Every Four People, Says Report,” The Verge, December 9, 2019, https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/9/21002515/surveillance-cameras-globally-us-china-amount-citizens; Charlie Campbell, “‘The Entire System Is Designed to Suppress Us.’ What the Chinese Surveillance State Means for the Rest of the World,” Time, November 21, 2019, https://time.com/5735411/china-surveillance-privacy-issues/.

  The CEO of the Chinese computer vision company SenseTime: Ross Andersen, “The Panopticon Is Already Here,” Atlantic, September 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/09/china-ai-surveillance/614197/.

  But less than six months later: Amy Hawkins, “Beijing’s Big Brother Tech Needs More African Faces,” Foreign Policy, July 24, 2018, https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/24/beijings-big-brother-tech-needs-african-faces/; Kudzai Chimhangwa, “How Zimbabwe’s Biometric ID Scheme—and China’s AI Aspirations—Threw a Wrench in Elections,” GlobalVoices, January 30, 2020, https://globalvoices.org/2020/01/30/how-zimbabwes-biometric-id-scheme-and-chinas-ai-aspirations-threw-a-wrench-into-the-2018-election/.

  China has engaged in similar partnerships: Andersen, “The Panopticon Is Already Here,” https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/09/china-ai-surveillance/614197/.

  The United States is beginning to recognize: Lucy Fisher, “CIA Warning over Huawei,” The Times (London), April 20, 2019, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/cia-warning-over-huawei-rz6xc8kzk; Edward Wong and Julian E. Barnes, “U.S. to Expel Chinese Graduate Students with Ties to China’s Military Schools,” New York Times, May 28, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/28/us/politics/china-hong-kong-trump-student-visas.html.

  In 2016, a Chinese gaming company: Georgia Wells, “Grindr Sells Majority Stake to Chinese Gaming Company,” Digits (blog), Wall Street Journal, January 11, 2016, https://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2016/01/11/grindr-sells-majority-stake-to-chinese-gaming-company/?mod=article_inline; Georgia Wells and Kate O’Keeffe, “U.S. Orders Chinese Firm to Sell Dating App Grindr over Blackmail Risk,” Wall Street Journal, March 27, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-orders-chinese-company-to-sell-grindr-app-11553717942.

  Eric Schmidt, the former chairman: Eric Schmidt, “Eric Schmidt: I Used to Run Google. Silicon Valley Could Lose to China,” New York Times, February 27, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/opinion/eric-schmidt-ai-china.html.

  6: THE GEOGRAPHY OF CHANGE: THE CONTEST FOR POWER BETWEEN CLOSED AND OPEN SYSTEMS

  A strong central government has ruled: Geremie Barmé, The Forbidden City (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2008), 594.

  Its 1.4 billion people remain subject: “China’s Mainland Population Crosses 1.4 Billion,” China Daily, January 17, 2020, https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/17/WS5e211902a310128217271a51.html.

  an economy slightly smaller than that of the Netherlands: “Comparison: Annual GDP 1978,” Countryeconomy, accessed July 23, 2020, https://countryeconomy.com/gdp?year=1978; “China—Population,” Countryeconomy, accessed July 23, 2020, https://countryeconomy.com/demography/population/china; “Netherlands—Population,” Country- economy, accessed July 23, 2020, https://countryeconomy.com/demography/population/netherlands; Max Roser and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, “Global Extreme Poverty: How Much Does the Reduction of Falling Poverty in China Matter for the Reduction of Global Poverty?,” Our World in Data, accessed July 23, 2020, https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty.

  The state loosened its grip: Wayne Morrison, China’s Economic Rise: History, Trends, Challenges, and Implications for the United States (US Congressional Research Service, June 25, 2019), https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33534.pdf; Raghuram Rajan, The Third Pillar: How Markets and the State Leave the Community Behind (New York: HarperCollins Publishers, 2019), 247.

  The country sustained an average annual growth rate: Morrison, China’s Economic Rise, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33534.pdf; “GDP (constant 2010 US$)—China,” World Bank, accessed July 23, 2020, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?locations=CN.

  China now boasts: “GDP (current US$),” World Bank, accessed July 23, 2020, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true.

  This view is reinforced by the government: Li Yuan, “With Selective Coronavirus Coverage, China Builds a Culture of Hate,” New York Times, April 22, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/business/china-coronavirus-propaganda.html.

  Most of the four hundred million members: Melissa Cyrill, “China’s Mid- dle Class in 5 Simple Questions,” China Briefing, February 13, 2019, https://www.china-briefing.com/news/chinas-middle-class-5-questions-answered/; Roser and Ortiz-Ospina, “Global Extreme Poverty: How Much Does the Reduction of Falling Poverty in China Matter for the Red- uction of Global Poverty?,” https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty.

  at least 104 billionaires: Tara Francis Chan, “Communist China Has 104 Billionaires Leading the Country while Xi Jinping Promises to Lift Millions out of Poverty,” Business Insider, March 2, 2018, https://www.businessinsider.com/billionaires-in-china-xi-jinping-parliament-income-inequality-2018-3; Karl Evers-Hillstrom, “Majority of Lawmak
ers in 116th Congress Are Millionaires,” Center for Responsive Politics, April 23, 2020, https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2020/04/majority-of-lawmakers-millionaires/; Adela Whittingham, “Britain’s Richest MP Worth £110 Million Banned from Roads after Being Caught Texting in His BMW,” The Mirror, December 20, 2017, https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/britains-richest-mp-worth-110million-11729352.

  The state offers little in the way: Nicholas R. Lardy and Tianlei Huang, “China’s Weak Social Safety Net Will Dampen Its Economic Recovery,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, May 4, 2020, https://www.piie.com/blogs/china-economic-watch/chinas-weak-social-safety-net-will-dampen-its-economic-recovery; “Workers’ Rights and Labour Relations in China,” China Labour Bulletin, June 22, 2020, https://clb.org.hk/content/workers%E2%80%99-rights-and-labour-relations-china.

  In the Gulf kingdoms, absolute power is offset: Aya Batrawy, “Half the Saudi Population Receiving Welfare in New System,” Seattle Times, December 21, 2017, https://www.seattletimes.com/business/half-the-saudi-population-receiving-welfare-in-new-system/; Robin Vinod, “Cost of Living in Doha Qatar,” Expat Life (blog), OnlineQatar, March 20, 2019, http://www.onlineqatar.com/living/expat-life/cost-of-living-in-doha-qatar; Doug Bandow, “Kuwait Needs Economic Reform, but Opponents Dominated National Assembly Election,” Forbes, January 9, 2017, https://www.forbes.com/sites/dougbandow/2017/01/09/kuwait-needs-economic-reform-but-opponents-dominated-national-assembly-election/#ca68f257c8df; “Housing Authorities and Programs,” United Arab Emirates, accessed July 29, 2020, https://u.ae/en/information-and-services/housing/housing-authorities-and-programmes; “Individual Income Tax Rates,” KPMG, accessed July 29, 2020, https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/services/tax/tax-tools-and-resources/tax-rates-online/individual-income-tax-rates-table.html.

  In Saudi Arabia, about two-thirds of all workers: Elizabeth Dickinson, “Can Saudi Arabia’s Young Prince Wean the Welfare State?,” Foreign Policy, June 5, 2017, https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/05/is-saudi-arabias-massive-economy-reform-coming-off-the-rails-mohammed-bin-salman/; Zahraa Alkhalisi, “How Many Saudis Are Only Working One Hour a Day?,” CNN Money, October 20, 2016, https://money.cnn.com/2016/10/20/news/saudi-government-workers-productivity/index.html.

  The stock market quickly rebounded: “Civilian Unemployment Rate,” US Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed July 20, 2020, https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment.htm; Heather Long, “Small Business Used to Define America’s Economy. The Pandemic Could Change That Forever,” Washington Post, May 12, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/12/small-business-used-define-americas-economy-pandemic-could-end-that-forever/; Aimee Picchi, “As Many as 35 Million People May Still Be Waiting for Their Stimulus Checks,” CBS News, June 9, 2020, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/stimulus-checks-as-many-as-35-million-people-may-still-be-waiting/.

  After negotiating with employers and labor unions: Peter S. Goodman, “The Nordic Way to Economic Recovery,” New York Times, April 2, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/business/nordic-way-economic-rescue-virus.html.

  the program cost an estimated $42 billion: Ulrik Boesen, “Denmark Unplugs the Economy,” Tax Foundation, March 26, 2020, https://taxfoundation.org/denmark-coronavirus-relief-plan/; Matt Apuzzo and Monika Pronczuk, “Covid-19’s Economic Pain Is Universal. But Relief? Depends on Where You Live,” New York Times, April 5, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/world/europe/coronavirus-economic-relief-wages.html.

  “What we’re trying to do”: Derek Thompson, “‘Do More—Fast. Don’t Wait,’” Atlantic, March 24, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/denmark-has-a-message-for-america-do-more-fast/608629/.

  In the first month of lockdown: “Denmark Unemployment Rate,” Trading Economics, accessed July 20, 2020, https://tradingeconomics.com/denmark/unemployment-rate; “Civilian Unemployment Rate,” US Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed July 20, 2020, https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm.

  Your childcare is subsidized: Gretchen Livingston and Deja Thomas, “Among 41 Countries, Only U.S. Lacks Paid Parental Leave,” Pew Research Center, December 16, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/12/16/u-s-lacks-mandated-paid-parental-leave/; Christine Ro, “Parental Leave: How Rich Countries Compare,” BBC News, June 14, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20190615-parental-leave-how-rich-countries-compare; Peter S. Goodman, “The Nordic Model May Be the Best Cushion against Capitalism: Can It Survive Immigration?,” New York Times, July 11, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/11/business/sweden-economy-immigration.html.

  The top income tax bracket: “Table I.7. Top Statutory Personal Income Tax Rates,” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, accessed July 21, 2020, https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TABLE_I7.

  Nordic governments also generate: Elke Asen, “Insights into the Tax Systems of Scandinavian Countries,” Tax Foundation, February 24, 2020, https://taxfoundation.org/bernie-sanders-scandinavian-countries-taxes/.

  The corporate tax rate in each of the Nordic states: “Corporate Tax Rates Table,” https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/services/tax/tax-tools-and-resources/tax-rates-online/corporate-tax-rates-table.html; Asen, “Corporate Tax Rates around the World, 2019,” https://taxfoundation.org/publications/corporate-tax-rates-around-the-world/.

  Tax forms arrive in the mail: Tom Heberlein, “I’m an American Living in Sweden. Here’s Why I Came to Embrace the Higher Taxes,” Vox, April 17, 2017, https://www.vox.com/2016/4/8/11380356/swedish-taxes-love.

  Instead of tax deductions: Tom Heberlein, “I’m an American Living in Sweden,” https://www.vox.com/2016/4/8/11380356/swedish-taxes-love; Joel Michael, Tax Expenditures vs. Direct Expenditures: A Primer (St. Paul, MN: Minnesota House Research, December 2018), https://www.house.leg.state.mn.us/hrd/pubs/taxvexp.pdf.

  The citizens of Nordic countries consistently rank: Katia Hetter, “During a Pandemic, What Does Being the World’s Happiest Country Mean?,” CNN, March 20, 2020, https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/worlds-happiest-country-wellness-2020/index.html.

  Your average Dane, Swede, Norwegian, Finn, and Icelander: “Poverty Rate,” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, accessed July 21, 2020, https://data.oecd.org/inequality/poverty-rate.htm; Bill Hussar, Jijun Zhang, Sarah Hein, Ke Wang, Ashley Roberts, Jiashan Cui, Mary Smith, Farrah Bullock Mann, Amy Barmar, and Rita Dilig, “International Educational Attainment” (Indicator 4.5), The Condition of Education 2020 (NCES 2020-144, U.S. Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, 2020), https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2020/2020144.pdf; Sintia Radu, “Countries with the Most Well-Developed Public Health Care Systems,” U.S. News and World Report, January 21, 2019, https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/slideshows/countries-with-the-most-well-developed-public-health-care-system; Is the Last Mile the Longest?: Economic Gains from Gender Equality in Nordic Countries (summary brief, Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, May 2018), https://www.oecd.org/els/emp/last-mile-longest-gender-nordic-countries-brief.pdf; “Income Inequality,” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, accessed July 21, 2020, https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm#indicator-chart; Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, “Which Places Have the Highest Concentration of Billionaires?,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, June 29, 2018, https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/which-places-have-highest-concentration-billionaires.

  Today, the state defends free trade: Michael Cembalest, “Lost in Space: The Search for Democratic Socialism in the Real World, and How I Ended Up Halfway around the Globe from Where I Began,” J.P. Morgan, June 24, 2019, https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/pb/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/lost-in-space-the-search-for-democratic-socialism-in-the-real-world-and-how-i-ended-up-halfway-around-the-globe-from-where-i-began.pdf.

  Companies are permitted to hire and fire: Fareed Zakaria, “Bernie Sanders’s Scandinavian Fantasy,” Washington Post,
February 27, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bernie-sanderss-scandinavian-fantasy/2020/02/27/ee894d6e-599f-11ea-9b35-def5a027d470_story.html; Matt Bruenig, “Fareed Zakaria Is Completely Ignorant about the Nordics,” People’s Policy Project, March 2, 2020, httxtps://www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2020/03/02/fareed-zakaria-is-completely-ignorant-about-the-nordics/.

  They are the reason Helsinki, Stockholm, and Copenhagen: Anna Thorsen, “50 Best Startup Cities in 2019,” Valuer (blog), February 5, 2019, https://www.valuer.ai/blog/top-50-best-startup-cities.

  As their societies grow more ethnically and religiously diverse: Anders Widfeldt, The Growth of the Radical Right in Nordic Countries: Observations from the Past 20 Years (Washington, DC: Migration Policy Institute, 2018), https://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/growth-radical-right-nordic-countries.

  Across the region, many people are beginning to balk: Goodman, “The Nordic Model May Be the Best Cushion against Capitalism. Can It Survive Immigration?,” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/11/business/sweden-economy-immigration.html.

  In contrast to the United States: “The Australian Health System,” Australian Government Department of Health, accessed August 14, 2020, https://www.health.gov.au/about-us/the-australian-health-system; “Your Superannuation Basics,” Australian Government Australian Taxation Office, accessed August 14, 2020, https://www.ato.gov.au/General/Other-languages/In-detail/Information-in-other-languages/Your-superannuation-basics/?page=1#How_is_money_paid_into_my_super_; “Best Countries for Education,” U.S. News and World Report, accessed August 14, 2020, https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/best-education; Julia Gillard, interview with Alec Ross and Jack Corrigan, August 10, 2020; Luke Ryan, “Australia Shows Why Raising the Minimum Wage Doesn’t Always Fix Poverty,” Quartz, August 1, 2016, https://qz.com/747814/other-countries-have-sorted-out-their-minimum-wage-woes-why-not-america/; “Australia Has the World’s Highest Minimum Wage,” Economist, July 20, 2019, https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/07/20/australia-has-the-worlds-highest-minimum-wage; “Minimum Wages,” Australian Government Fair Work Ombudsman, accessed August 14, 2020, https://www.fairwork.gov.au/how-we-will-help/templates-and-guides/fact-sheets/minimum-workplace-entitlements/minimum-wages; “Currency Converter,” Transferwise, accessed August 14, 2020, https://transferwise.com/us/currency-converter/aud-to-usd-rate?amount=1000.