Flash Point

by Kenneth Andrus

  “We’re looking at two separate incidents,” Gilmore concluded.

  “Maybe there’s only been one?” Brown replied in the silence following Gilmore’s statement.

  “Maybe three,” Valardi said.

  Stuart slammed his fist on the table. “Nobody knows what’s going on. How am I supposed to respond to this mess?”

  Payne interceded. “We should look at the Agricultural Ministry piece, Mr. President. I suspect the Chinese will be sending something considerably stronger than a Ministry vessel. Bob, do you have any reports of ship’s movement by units of the South Seas Fleet?”

  “No, but we’ve got another satellite pass coming up. We’ll know more after that.”

  Payne knew Stuart wouldn’t be happy with the answer. He needed answers. “Bryce, what about our Valiant Crane intercepts?”

  “There’s been an increase in coded communications consistent with a heightened alert status.”

  “Any specifics?”

  “Nothing we’ve been able to decipher, Mr. President.”

  That response prompted Lawson to consider something else. “Have they changed their encryption codes?”

  “No, but they are doing something we haven’t seen before.”

  Stuart picked up on where Lawson was going with his question. “Something to do with their comms?”

  “Yes, sir. Several months ago, the Chinese implemented a program called the Blue Network Project. It’s an open satcom network with their garrisons and ships in the Spratlys similar to our Armed Forces Network.”

  “And?”

  “Several hours ago, they stopped their regular programming and began encrypted communications.”

  “You think they’re ramping up in preparation for a strike?”

  “That would be a valid presumption, Mr. President.”

  “I still can’t believe the Nationalists would be so provocative,” Valardi said. “Could the two events be coincidental?”

  “Possible,” Brown replied. “Regardless, these incidents indicate one of two things, neither of which is good. They were either deliberate, or they’ve lost control of the situation.”

  “I agree,” Stuart said. “The situation appears to be deteriorating into a worst-case scenario.”

  “Mr. President?”

  Stuart looked across the table at Gilmore. “Yes, Bryce.”

  “Taipei has said they would not condone the activity of criminal elements within its territorial waters. I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t dispatch a couple Coast Guard cutters from Itu Aba to investigate.”

  “I don’t like the sound of that,” Payne replied. “Their use of the phrase ‘criminal elements’ refers to the PLA. And territorial waters, that’s another ‘in your face’ directed at Beijing. Sending military vessels to investigate? These are all elements that will result in a confrontation.”

  “Bob, do you have any sense how the Chinese would respond if they choose the military option?”

  “Yes, sir. We’ve gamed it out. But, that said, I’m not convinced Beijing is prepared to go that route.”

  “This would be a political, not a military decision,” Valardi said.

  Stuart wasn’t so sure. “But if Xiao is calling the shots?”

  Lawson overlooked the metaphor. “Our best estimate is the PLA will be prepared to mount an invasion of Taiwan within the next few days.”

  “Would they strike the main islands?”

  “They can exercise any number of options short of that, provided they are given the go ahead by their senior leadership,” Payne answered.

  Stuart wasn’t satisfied. “What’s their objective?”

  Payne deferred and looked to Lawson. “Bob?”

  “I’d be looking at the Pescadores.”

  “Why?”

  “They’re a soft target and it would make strategic sense.”

  “How’s that?”

  “Besides requiring only a small commitment of forces to obtain their objective, the invasion would have minimal political ramifications for Beijing.”

  “Although they’re being pushed to the limits of their tolerance, the Chinese will not commit their forces until they have a clear political advantage,” Brown said.

  Valardi took advantage of the opening to insert a question. “What would that be, Justin? They won’t be able to get much leverage by claiming to be the aggrieved party.”

  “My cut is the majority of the UN General Council will be looking for an excuse to ignore the entire situation or to side with Beijing.”

  Stuart looked at the spiral he’d drawn. “I’d prefer not to believe that.”

  “Oh, there may be some muted protests to maintain appearances,” Valardi replied, “but privately, most of the world will not be interested in confronting China. They will take the position that the PRC’s actions were a reasonable response to Taipei’s provocations.”

  “I’ll second that,” Brown said. “My staff ran several scenarios based on outcome analysis. We’ve concluded that in the event of a limited regional dispute, the world’s leaders would say the Chinese were settling accounts on a limited regional dispute. It would not be worth endangering their long-term political and economic ties with Beijing.”

  Stuart nodded and retraced his spiral. “Where else could they go, Bob?”

  “Itu Aba. Taipei may have provided the PRC with the rationale they’ve been waiting for.”

  “Unacceptable,” Valardi said.

  “If Beijing were successful, it would give them control over the entire South China Sea,” Payne added.

  “Richard, can you say with certainty Beijing understands our position on Itu Aba?” Stuart asked.

  “Only within the context of our previously stated position on the region.”

  “Not good enough,” Stuart said. He knew it wasn’t Valardi’s fault. It wasn’t anyone’s fault. The decision would be his alone. He reversed the direction of his pen and rapped its tip at the center of the spiral. “Justin, how much time would you give us?”

  “Forty-eight hours, max.”

  “Richard?”

  If Valardi was upset by Stuart’s earlier response, he didn’t let on. “No more than that.”

  “Sheldon?”

  “Forty-eight sounds good, sir.”

  “We have to move,” Stuart said. “Justin, sit down with Richard and draft the position paper. And Justin, I need to talk with Zhu.”

  “I’ll set it up,” Lantis replied.

  “Bob, call Admiral Cortez. Tell him he has his alert order, hard copy confirmation to follow.”

  Lawson reached for the secure phone at his side. “Yes, sir.”

  “And, Bob, what’s Victorious’ status? As much as I’d like to have the intel, it’s not worth putting her at risk.”

  “Hold one,” Lawson said to the officer in the Pentagon’s command center. “She’s safe, sir. Once she turned, the PLAN broke contact.”

  “Okay, continue your call. Sheldon, where’s the Washington?”

  “Off Okinawa. The Strike Group’s been conducting a scheduled exercise with the JMSDF.”

  “ANNUALEX?”

  “Yes, sir.”

  “They are not to do anything that could be interpreted by the Chinese as a move toward Taiwan.”

  “Those are our orders, Mr. President,” Lawson affirmed.

  “How about ocean surveillance? Can we extend our coverage to see what’s happening around Macclesfield Reef?”

  “We’ll reposition a satellite,” Payne responded.

  “Keep me appraised. And Dan, one final thing. Round up the Congressional leadership. I have to bring them up to speed.”

  “On it.”

  “Thank you, gentlemen. We’ll reconvene at 0730.”

  Chapter 46

  THE OVAL OFFICE

  07:50 SATURDAY 26 JULY

  Stuart strode into Oval Office, conscious he was late. “Good morning, gentlemen. If you need more coffee, get it now.”

  The only one to tak
e him up on his offer was Gilmore. He wanted a cigarette, but settled for his third cup of caffeine. Stuart waited until he was back in his seat. “Justin and I were in the command center. We have a lot to go over.”

  “Mr. President, were you able to speak with Zhu?”

  “Frankly, I’m not pleased with how things went. He told me the United States should exercise self-restraint and refrain from aggravating the situation.”

  “We should exercise restraint?” Valardi commented a bit too loudly.

  “Permit me to finish, Richard.”

  “Ex...excuse me, Mr. President,” Valardi stuttered, taken aback by the rebuke.

  “I insisted our sole interest was to maintain peace, and resorting to force would not serve either of our countries’ self-interest. He responded by asking: ‘Peace and stability on whose terms?’ Justin, you have the rest.”

  “Yes, sir. He said there were ‘certain elements whose actions in the South China Sea have been counter to the common thread of peace, cooperation, stability, and development in the region.’”

  “The Party line,” Valardi ventured. “Did he provide specifics?”

  “He provided two, both of which caught me off guard. That will not happen again. For starters, he read from yesterday’s Asian Times quoting the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The Senator from Alabama said the Senate was unwavering in its support of Taiwan and authorized the sale of two Osprey class mine sweepers to Taipei.”

  “How the hell did that get out? That’s just pouring gasoline on the fire for God’s sake!” Payne exclaimed.

  Stuart’s face darkened. “I said there were to be no further deals with the Nationalists. I thought I’d made that point abundantly clear.”

  “Mr. President?”

  “Yes, Dan?”

  “I have something that pertains,” Lantis said.

  “Go ahead.”

  “The mine sweepers were buried in a draft bill approved out of committee and sent to the floor for a voice vote.”

  “When do I meet with the Congressional leadership?”

  “Eleven.”

  “I’ll deal with it, then. Bryce, my next surprise falls in your court.”

  “Sir?”

  “What can you tell me about our contingency plans with the JMSDF showing up on the Internet?”

  “We’ve been working with Naval Intelligence and Cyber Security, Mr. President. The JMSDF confirmed the source. One of their people. He had the material stored on his personal laptop and screwed up using a file sharing program.”

  “Has there been a network intrusion?”

  “No, sir,” Gilmore replied hoping that was indeed the case.

  “What was in the files?”

  “The damage assessment is ongoing, but it’s my understanding there were some three thousand documents.”

  “What the hell!” Stuart said.

  “Mr. President, I can provide some details,” Payne said. “They mostly pertain to Korea. However, there were some operational plans outlining in general terms our combined response to a Chinese incursion into the Senkaku Islands.”

  “Anything damaging?”

  “No, sir. Most of the documents were classified confidential or secret. Our analysts have concluded there was little information the Chinese didn’t already know or could not have reasonably surmised.”

  “Any TS?”

  “No, sir.”

  Gilmore was certain there hadn’t been a breach in the firewalls, but he did have an explanation. “Mr. President, Zhu may have been referring to something else.”

  “Oh? What makes you think that, Bryce?”

  “The security breach happened nearly six months ago. It came to light after someone leaked the incident to the press. My concern is they may have penetrated one of our electronic surveillance operations.”

  “The Minh Le guy?”

  “No, sir. We picked up an intelligence analyst who tipped them off.”

  “Should we shut down Blue Horizon?”

  “Not yet, but we’ve got to keep our eyes open. Xiao said there was too much intelligence gathering and the situation was ‘very dangerous.’”

  Payne frowned. “We’re in receipt of a message from Hanoi’s military attaché saying the Chinese have blockaded one of their rigs in the Wan Bei 21 Block and intercepted a supply vessel.”

  “Any shots fired?” Stuart asked.

  “Unknown.”

  “We’re working to connect the dots,” Gilmore said. “The PLA may have presented the Vietnamese an implicit threat or they could have applied direct force. A threat would be more probable. Our operatives on Platform Ten reported hearing a Chinese research ship firing 100mm shells into the water while supposedly conducting a seismic survey.”

  “They’re that close?” Valardi asked.

  “Ten miles.”

  Stuart considered the implications. “Besides the noise, have the Chinese said anything?”

  “They’ve responded to Hanoi’s protest by saying the activities of VietPetro are illegal and must cease immediately. They went on to say if they did not stop, the government of Vietnam, and those supporting them, would be held accountable for any ensuing consequences.”

  “I presume they’re talking about us,” Brown said.

  “That’s our take,” Gilmore confirmed. “The statement went on to say VietPetro and HOE have encroached upon China’s maritime interests and Hanoi’s stance is not beneficial to stability in the Spratly Islands.”

  “Beijing’s upped the ante.”

  “Yes, sir.”

  “That’s all I need to know. Bryce, prepare to get our assets off Blue Horizon. I can’t offer them any protection, but overriding the imminent danger is the imperative to keep tabs on the Chinese.”

  “Mr. President?” Lawson said. “There’s another development.”

  Stuart recognized the tone in Lawson’s voice. “Go.”

  “We’ve been tracking one of their nuclear submarines. It left its homeport in Ningho three weeks ago on an extended duration patrol. After operating near Taiwan, it transited into the South China Sea where the Victorious picked the sub up before it changed course for the northeast and passed over our SOSUS arrays in the Palawan Trench. Once she entered the Pacific, Honolulu trailed her to Guam and back to a position south of Okinawa. The JMSDF went on alert after the sub ventured into Japanese waters. They prosecuted until the sub altered course toward the East China Sea.”

  “Premier Norita brought this incident to my attention when I spoke with him,” Stuart said. “He’s demanding an explanation from Beijing.”

  “All of these events are more than mere coincidence. They must be linked to a broader plan,” Gilmore said.

  “Perhaps. The Chinese responded by accusing the Japanese of sensationalizing their allegations and that it would not be appropriate to answer a random supposition.”

  “There was nothing ambiguous about the response in Japan,” Gilmore said. “A member of Tokyo’s Diet said the Japanese people would never be bullied. He implied that Japan’s reserve of plutonium could be used to produce nuclear warheads.”

  “I’m sure Norita will put a stop to that nonsense,” Stuart said.

  “It didn’t take long for Beijing’s Foreign Ministry to respond,” Valardi said. “They issued a statement saying that any reference to the use of nuclear weapons contradicts the shared desires for peace and friendship between the Chinese and Japanese peoples.”

  “Very nice of them,” Payne said.

  “I wonder what they will have to say about their damn sub shadowing the Washington,” Payne added.

  “Bob, what’s he talking about?”

  “We received a report from Seventh Fleet early this morning, Mr. President.”

  “Fill me in.”

  “A S-3 Viking spotted a Song class diesel boat on the surface some fifteen kilometers from the Strike Group. The sub was likely maneuvering to conduct interdiction and surveillance ops.”

  “How’
d they get so damn close? Did we even know it was shadowing the Strike Group?”

  “No, sir.”

  “Why not?”

  “The Strike Group was not conducting anti-submarine ops at the time sir. This particular phase of ANNUALEX was not scripted for them.”

  “When’s the exercise scheduled to wrap up?”

  “Tomorrow.”

  “Don’t wait. Call them off and have Seventh Fleet put CTF-77 on alert.”

  “Yes, sir.”

  “Wasn’t she within range of the sub’s cruise missiles?”

  “Yes, sir.”

  “They have to surface to fire them, don’t they?”

  “No, sir. The 091s can remain submerged. We have observed them come to periscope depth, presumably for targeting.”

  “Do you think they could have had an engineering casualty forcing them to the surface?”

  “That’s our working assumption. The Songs have a history of mechanical problems. We can’t see any reason why they would have surfaced with the sea state so high. They were really getting rolled around.”

  Valardi frowned. “This doesn’t add up. Why would the Chinese take the risk?”

  “You won’t get any argument from us on that point,” Payne said, “but we have to consider the Chinese weren’t planning on being discovered. Our threat assessment suggests PLA airborne forces are preparing for an assault on Itu Aba.”

  “Have you identified the specific units, Bob?”

  “Yes, sir. The 135th Regiment of the 45th Airborne Division is already staged. They could be airlifted in IL-76’s with several hours notification. We believe the 133rd Regiment is being held in reserve, and we’ve verified the 164th Marine Brigade as the follow-on unit.”

  “A significant force. What else could they have in mind?”

  “What if they’re eyeing Pagasa?” Gilmore asked. “If they’re determined to go that route again, it’ll be difficult to stop them.”

  “The worst-case scenario is, once Beijing has weighed the risks and decides to grab Itu Aba, they’ll take measures to consolidate their hold on the entire South China Sea,” Payne said.

  “They may have already moved to a higher alert status,” Brown said. “Several hours ago, Beijing announced a public state of emergency. They’ve restricted all movement by foreigners in their coastal provinces and access by external news organizations.”