But the two-day workshop was overrun with talk of, and concern for, LeBron James. The worry begins with a baseline level of “stress”—that’s their term—surrounding all NBA players. Sports science has exploded in recent years with evidence that factors like mucked-up sleep, air travel and densely scheduled games put players in jeopardy. The NBA is elite in all categories.
“It’s unfathomable to go across the country from Cleveland to San Francisco—at the very least a five-hour flight—and then play 50 minutes in a game the next day,” Young says. “You don’t see that in any other sport. The travel stress alone can be debilitating.
“And then you add to the fact that basically it’s a one-man team at this point, and the mental and physical burden—it’s just overwhelming,” Young says.
Young remembers watching Game 3 while the trainers geeked out over the stamina of James, who was coming off two straight overtime games, including fifty minutes in Game 2. This was the party where people were dying to know LeBron’s heart rate variability scores—measuring his bodily stress levels. There was speculation about his OmegaWave outputs, a measure of neurological fatigue.
But mostly they just wanted to know how he could keep going at all.
As it turned out, James couldn’t. Or at least not quite at the same superhuman level as the first two games Cleveland played without Irving. But after Game 3, with the Warriors down 2–1 and already having ceded homecourt advantage, no one yet could accurately forecast what LeBron had left in his tank. Golden State had not played anywhere near its own ceiling and looked frustrated by the slowness of the games. The Warriors needed to change their approach and unlock their upside, or risk being one of the biggest upset victims in NBA Finals history.
Enter Nick U’Ren, a twenty-eight-year-old special assistant to head coach Steve Kerr, who provided the second major analytics talking point of the series, and very well may have saved the Warriors.
U’Ren started working for Kerr in 2007, when Kerr was the general manager of the Phoenix Suns, and stayed with the Suns through two additional regimes before Kerr, having taken the Warriors job before the 2014–15 season, brought U’Ren over to Golden State. U’Ren was not officially a coach or a scout for the Warriors. He was more of a consigliere for Kerr, helping him keep his schedule, being in charge of the music that played during Warriors shootarounds, and assisting with the execution of team outings, in addition to doing some video work for the team.
Like the rest of the Warriors’ players and staff, U’Ren was frustrated by how Cleveland was pushing Golden State around and making the series a slow, physical slog. Per multiple reports, U’Ren went back a year to find the basis for what turned out to be a truly inspired idea, recalling how the San Antonio Spurs replaced Tiago Splitter in the starting lineup with Boris Diaw, who both defended LeBron and added more shooting and spacing on the offensive end.
U’Ren suggested to assistant coach Luke Walton that the Warriors insert Andre Iguodala, their best perimeter defender and a reasonable 3-point shooter, into the starting lineup in place of center and rim-protector Andrew Bogut in an effort to help slow down LeBron while also trying to speed up the pace of the series. Walton then communicated the idea to head coach Steve Kerr, who sneakily implemented the change in time for Game 4.
After Cleveland jumped out to a quick 7–0 lead, the Warriors stabilized, found their footing with more athleticism and shotmakers on the floor, and with Iguodala playing more minutes to help limit LeBron on the offensive end, the Warriors rolled to a series-tying victory. Afterward, Kerr very publicly credited his young assistant for the clever gambit.
From that point on, the series was basically over. Golden State won Game 5 at home by thirteen points and, despite a last-minute semi-scare in Game 6 thanks to some late Cleveland threes, closed out the series on the road to win the title. Bogut ended up playing less than three total minutes in the final three wins while Iguodala ended up being named the Finals MVP.
The whole Golden State scenario was a microcosm of what this entire book is about. Thanks to savvy talent identification and player development, Golden State had the roster with which to quickly change gears. Thanks to James tiring after carrying such a momentous workload, the Warriors regained the extra margin for error their talent suggested they should have. And thanks in large part to a junior staffer, they found a possible solution, vetted the idea among the coaching staff, decided to go for it, communicated the idea to the players, changed their starting lineup and approach, and won three straight high-pressure games. That whole chain set a very significant bar for information sourcing, communication, and implementation under pressure.
It also validated the decision the Warriors made at the beginning of the season, the one where assistant general manager Kirk Lacob said that situations involving this type of specific on-court information would be a coach-driven enterprise, since the coaches were the people who were with the players every day. That let the players get comfortable with the flexible thinking of Kerr and his staff. It allowed Bogut to be OK with a strategic demotion in the biggest spotlight. It positioned Iguodala to be prepared to excel in a huge spot. It helped the Warriors be the league’s best team all season, and win the 2015 NBA championship that was rightfully theirs.
NOTES
Prologue
3 Game for the 2014–15 season: Ethan Sherwood Strauss, “Klay Thompson’s Six New Lethal Moves,” ESPN.com, January 9, 2015, http://espn.go.com/blog/golden-state-warriors/post/_/id/199/klay-thompsons-six-new-lethal-moves.
8 Data-related employees: Mark Cuban Companies, “Our Companies: Synergy Sports Technology,” http://markcubancompanies.com/index.html#/synergy; Mark Cuban Companies, “Our Companies: Catapult,” http://markcubancompanies.com/index.html#/catapult.
Chapter 1
10 Sold in that era: Louis Guth, “Investing in a Pro Team: Expensive But Worth It,” New York Times, July 6, 1980.
13 Contract with the Houston Rockets: Alexander Wolff, “Searching for a Promised Land,” Sports Illustrated, August 30, 1982, http://www.si.com/vault/1982/08/30/624378/searching-for-a-promised-land.
13 Into Guth’s offensive formula: Louis Guth, “Basketball by the Numbers: Free Agents, Computers, and the NBA,” N/E/R/A Topics, 1984.
15 “It’ll be a better show”: Mark Perner, “The Sixers Trade for Moses Malone,” Philly.com, March 8, 2013, http://articles.philly.com/2013-03-08/sports/37564051_1_moses-malone-sixers-fan-lee-fentress.
15 Lakers in Guth’s model: Louis Guth, “76ers’ Wins and Offensive Rebounds Projection (as described in N/E/R/A Topics),” Sports Illustrated, September 13, 1982.
16 Conceded “per possession”: Frank McGuire, Defensive Basketball (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1959).
20 Success in that era: David Leonhardt, “Mavericks’ New Math May Be an Added Edge,” New York Times, April 27, 2003, http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/27/sports/pro-basketball-mavericks-new-math-may-be-an-added-edge.html.
20 Shooters, actually worked: Dean Oliver, “Research Topics,” APBR_analysis, February 10, 2001, https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/APBR_analysis/conversations/messages/1.
23 Approach with two centers: Ibid.
23 Any of his data: Ibid.
26 Coaching and management thinkers: Chris Ballard, “Measure of Success,” Sports Illustrated, October 24, 2005, http://www.si.com/vault/2005/10/24/8359337/measure-of-success.
Chapter 2
30 2012 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference: Yu-han Chang, Rajiv Maheswaran, Aaron Henehan, and Samantha Danesis, “Deconstructing the Rebound with Optimal Tracking Data,” 2012 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, March 1, 2012, http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/108-sloan-sports-2012-maheswaran-chang_updated.pdf.
30 Visually unique ways: Rajiv Maheswaran, “The Math Behind Basketball’s Wildest Moves,” TED, TED2015, March 17, 2015, https://www.ted.com/talks/rajiv_maheswaran_the_math_behind_basketball_s_wildest_moves.
32 What a computer tells them: Brett Po
llakoff, “Stan van Gundy Questions Integrity of Advanced Statistical Data at MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference,” NBC Sports, March 1, 2014, http://nba.nbcsports.com/2014/03/01/stan-van-gundy-questions-integrity-of-advanced-statistical-data-at-sloan-sports-analytics-conference/.
36 Or a similar carrier: Seth Partnow, “Industry Q&A: Garrick Barr, CEO, of Synergy Sports Technology,” Nylon Calculus, February 12, 2015, http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/02/12/industry-qa-garrick-barr-ceo-synergy-sports-technology/.
37 Cross-sport technology phenomenon: Synergy Sports Technology, “Our Championship Team,” http://corp.synergysportstech.com/nba-video-database.
41 Movements of soccer players: Eric Fisher, “STATS LLC Buys Tel Aviv-Based Optical-Tracking Company SportVU,” Sports Business Journal, December 2, 2008, http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2008/12/Issue-54/Sports-Media/Stats-LLC-Buys-Tel-Aviv-Based-Optical-Tracking-Company-Sportvu.aspx.
44 During the 2009 NBA Finals: David Aldridge, “SportVU Cameras Shift Focus of What’s Possible with NBA Stats,” NBA.com, November 11, 2013, http://www.nba.com/2013/news/features/david_aldridge/11/11/morning-tip-sportvu-cameras-in-arenas-problems-with-nets-qa-with-paul-george/.
45 Product called MySynergySports: William Bohl, “A Synergy Elegy: Goodbye, You Confounding Old Friend,” Hardwood Paroxysm, October 3, 2014, http://hardwoodparoxysm.com/2014/10/03/synergy-elegy-goodbye-confounding-old-friend/.
Chapter 3
48 Book determined independently: Kevin Pelton, “The Great Analytics Rankings: NBA,” ESPN, February 23, 2015, http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings.
50 DNP as “old”: Kelly Dwyer, “Tim Duncan Missed Sunday Night’s Game Because He’s ‘Old,’ Officially,” Yahoo! Sports, March 26, 2012, http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/tim-duncan-missed-sunday-night-spurs-game-because-081218158.html.
51 “Best interests of the NBA”: NBA, “San Antonio Spurs Fined $250K by League,” NBA.com, Press Release, December 3, 2012, http://www.nba.com/2012/news/11/30/spurs-fined-announcement/.
52 More minutes than average: Ian Levy, “Gaming the NBA Season,” The Cauldron, November 24, 2014, https://the-cauldron.com/gaming-the-nba-season-6ba2a7fd6ca7.
59 Against the Chicago Bulls: Marcel Mutoni, “The Philadelphia Sixers Met with Angry Fans About Tanking,” SLAM, November 25, 2014, http://www.slamonline.com/nba/philadelphia-sixers-met-angry-fans-tanking/.
59 Vote were announced: Ken Berger, “The Sixers’ Nonstop Badness Puts Tanking in the Spotlight,” CBSSports.com, November 26, 2014, http://www.cbssports.com/nba/writer/ken-berger/24841864/the-sixers-non-stop-badness-puts-tanking-in-the-spotlight.
60 Carter-Williams wrote. “Nope”: Pablo S. Torre, “The 76ers’ Plan to Win (Yes, Really),” ESPN The Magazine, February 19, 2015, http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12318808/the-philadelphia-76ers-radical-guide-winning.
66 “Forcing up a bunch of threes”: Eric Pincus, “Byron Scott Wants Lakers to Average 10 to 15 Three-Point Shots a Game,” Los Angeles Times, October 8, 2014, http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakers/lakersnow/la-sp-ln-byron-scott-lakers-three-pointers-20141007-story.html.
69 Closer to the Rockets’ strategy: Stephen Shea and Christopher Baker, Basketball Analytics: Objective and Efficient Strategies for Understanding How Teams Win (Lake St. Louis, MO: Advanced Metrics LLC, 2013).
70 Also ranked very highly: Stephen Shea, “Introducing Moreyball Efficiency or Why the Warriors Are Favorites to Win It All,” Basketball AnalyticsBook.com, February 11, 2015, http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2015/02/11/introducing-moreyball-efficiency-or-why-the-warriors-are-favorites-to-win-it-all/.
71 Italian defensive soccer strategy: Jason Concepcion, “Embrace the Dark Side: How the Rockets Became the New Bad Boys,” Grantland, November 19, 2014, http://grantland.com/the-triangle/houstonaccio-moreyball-rockets-efficiency-fun/.
Chapter 4
76 Couple of decades ago: Mike DeCoursey, “John Calipari: The Salesman,” Sporting News, September 2, 2015, http://www.sportingnews.com/calipari/salesman.
77 Manage the whole process: Ben Roberts, “Kentucky’s Director of Analytics: Who Is He, Why He’s Here and How He Is Helping the Cats,” Kentucky.com, December 23, 2014, http://www.kentucky.com/welcome_page/?shf=/2014/12/23/3608832_kentuckys-director-of-analytics.html.
80 Lexington were over: John Calipari, “We May Never Platoon Again, But Players Will Always Come First,” CoachCal.com, May 5, 2015, http://www.coachcal.com/34612/2015/05/we-may-never-platoon-again-but-players-will-always-come-first/.
96 Low-post scorer Jahlil Okafor: Barry Jacobs, “How Data Help Refine Duke Approach on Court,” Charlotte Observer, December 14, 2014, http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/college/mens-basketball/article9245507.html.
96 Attempted off the dribble: Wylie Wong, “March Madness 2015: Duke University Leads College Basketball’s Data Revolution,” EdTech, March 18, 2015, http://www.edtechmagazine.com/higher/article/2015/03/march-madness-2015-duke-university-leads-college-basketball-s-data-revolution.
Chapter 5
106 “I’ve never seen anybody do”: Mark McKown, quoted on “Dr. Marcus Elliott,” P3, http://www.p3.md/team/marcus-elliott/.
112 A large number of NBA teams: Chris Ballard, “Want to Avoid Injury? NBA Teams Are Looking to Marcus Elliott for Answers,” Sports Illustrated, December 23, 2014, http://www.si.com/nba/2014/12/23/marcus-elliott-p3-nba-injury-injury-analysis-data.
114 Recover from injuries: Michael Schwartz, “The Secret Behind the Phoenix Suns’ Elite Training Staff,” Valley of the Suns, April 5, 2012, http://valleyofthesuns.com/2012/04/05/secret-behind-phoenix-suns-elite-training-staff/.
117 Prolonging his career: Ian Thomsen, “Weekly Countdown,” Sports Illustrated, March 28, 2008, http://www.si.com/more-sports/2008/03/28/weekly-countdown.
119 Catapult devices during the 2014–15 season: Ken Berger, “Warriors’ Wearable Weapon? Devices to Monitor Players While on Court,” CBSSports.com, June 3, 2015, http://www.cbssports.com/nba/writer/ken-berger/25203846/warriors-wearable-weapon-devices-to-monitor-players-while-on-the-court.
Chapter 6
128 Among Kings officials: Video: “Draft 3.0: The Sacramento Kings’ Radical Plan to Crowdsource the NBA Draft,” Grantland, June 24, 2014, http://grantland.com/features/sacramento-kings-2014-nba-draft-crowdsourcing/.
135 Two seasons of college ball: Ben Alamar, Sports Analytics: A Guide for Coaches, Managers and Other Decision Makers (New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 2013).
138 Moving around the court: Zach Lowe, “Lights, Cameras, Revolution,” Grantland, March 19, 2013, http://grantland.com/features/the-toronto-raptors-sportvu-cameras-nba-analytical-revolution/.
143 “Communicator to me with it”: Baxter Holmes, “Drew Cannon, 23, Bringing Analytics to Celtics,” Boston Globe, July 9, 2013, https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/07/08/celtics-hire-year-old-analytics-guru-drew-cannon/Iv9Ua8NB5gQTVbRh0I8uSN/story.html.
155 Were never particularly impressive: Michael Lewis, “The No-Stats All-Star,” New York Times, February 13, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html?_r=0.
156 “Member at a Paris Hilton party”: Jason Friedman, “Rocket Science: Daryl Morey Brings Hard-Core Statistical Analysis to the NBA,” Houston Press, October 31, 2007, http://www.houstonpress.com/news/rocket-science-daryl-morey-brings-hard-core-statistical-analysis-to-the-nba-6540549.
Chapter 7
166 Warriors’ chances of claiming it: Daryl Morey, @dmorey, Twitter, February 5, 2015, https://twitter.com/dmorey/status/563562941442576385.
168 Anybody else in the organization: Diamond Leung, “Warriors Co-Owner Lacob Lists Reasons For Firing Mark Jackson,” Bay Area News Group, December 5, 2014, http://www.mercurynews.com/warriors/ci_27078013/warriors-co-owner-lacob-lists-reasons-firing-mark.
168 All have enormous wingspans: Alex Torres, “Warriors Are Redefining Defense with Position-less Approach,” Warriors World, http://www.warriorsworld.net/2015/01/20/w
arriors-are-redefining-defense-with-position-less-approach/.
176 James is not playing at his level: Andy Glockner, “In Defense of James Harden,” The Cauldron, December 18, 2014, https://the-cauldron.com/in-defense-of-james-harden-73211071b4b0.
177 Their ball-dominant players: Kelly Scaletta, “More on Player Scoring Types: Team Impact Charts,” BBallBreakdown.com, August 7, 2015, http://bballbreakdown.com/2015/08/07/more-on-player-scoring-types-team-impact-charts/.
179 Having “some African in him”: Daniel O’Leary, “Audio of Hawks GM Danny Ferry Saying Luol Deng Has ‘a Little African in Him’ and All-Star Is Two-Faced Surfaces,” New York Daily News, September 11, 2014, http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/audio-hawks-gm-racist-comment-luol-deng-surfaces-article-1.1937107.
187 Plan to re-sign in Cleveland: LeBron James (as told to Lee Jenkins), “LeBron: I’m Coming Back to Cleveland,” Sports Illustrated, July 11, 2015, http://www.si.com/nba/2014/07/11/lebron-james-cleveland-cavaliers.
189 His return to Cleveland: Ethan Skolnick, “A Team Transformed: Inside LeBron James’ First Season Back with the Cavaliers,” Bleacher Report, July 10, 2015, http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2517134-a-team-transformed-inside-lebron-james-first-season-back-with-the-cavaliers.
190 Windhorst in a January 2015 column: Brian Windhorst, “How Did Cavs Land Timofey Mozgov?” ESPN.com, January 8, 2015, http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12136574/nba-how-did-cleveland-cavaliers-get-timofey-mozgov.
Chapter 8
195 He couldn’t play anymore: Marc Spears, “Warriors Andrew Bogut Likens Restoring Cars to Caring for Battered Body,” Yahoo! Sports, December 18, 2014, http://sports.yahoo.com/news/warriors--andrew-bogut-likens-refurbishing-cars-to-caring-for-battered-body-020928090.html.
Chasing Perfection: A Behind-the-Scenes Look at the High-Stakes Game of Creating an NBA Champion Page 25
