198 One of the best players in the NBA: Charles F. Gardner, “Khris Middleton’s Rise Brings Stability to Shooting Guard,” Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, March 2, 2015, http://www.jsonline.com/sports/bucks/khris-middletons-rise-brings-stability-at-shooting-guard-b99453986z1-294770201.html.
200 Trade with the Pistons: Eric Buenning, “Examining the Other Parts of the Bucks-Pistons Trade,” BrewHoop.com, July 30, 2013, http://www.brewhoop.com/2013/7/30/4573324/examining-the-other-parts-of-the-bucks-pistons-trade.
204 Column about the situation: Adrian Wojnarowski, “Inside Look at James Harden’s Trade to Rockets,” Yahoo! Sports, October 28, 2012, http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba—inside-look-at-james-harden-s-trade-to-rockets-28301609.html.
204 Either Durant or Westbrook: Tom Haberstroh, “Is Harden Really a No. 1 Option?” ESPN Insider, November 6, 2012, http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8599109/nba-james-harden-no-1-option.
206 Created ESPN’s real plus-minus calculation: Daniel Myers, “About Box Plus/Minus (BPM),” Basketball-Reference.com, accessed November 11, 2015, http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html.
206 In isolation (one-on-one) situations: Jordan Brenner, “The Truth About James Harden’s Defense,” ESPN The Magazine, December 22, 2014, http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12041846/the-truth-james-harden-defense.
206 Cauldron in December 2014: Andy Glockner, “In Defense of James Harden,” The Cauldron, December 18, 2014, https://the-cauldron.com/in-defense-of-james-harden-73211071b4b0.
207 “Tank for the game of basketball”: Ibid.
207 Big man Enes Kanter: Seth Partnow, “Rim Protection 2014/15,” Nylon Calculus, April 2015, http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/.
210 On to make the NBA: Jon Nichols, “How Do NCAA Stats Translate to the NBA?” Basketball-Statistics.com, March 2009, http://basketball-statistics.com/howdoncaastatisticstranslatetothenba.html.
211 Rebounding rate, and usage rate: Neil Paine and Zach Bradshaw, “Projecting the Top 50 Players in the 2015 Draft Class,” FiveThirtyEight, June 19, 2015, http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/projecting-the-top-50-players-in-the-2015-nba-draft-class/.
212 2015 interview with Grantland: Zach Lowe, “Q&A with Orlando’s Nikola Vucevic: On Theme Parks, Nicknames and More,” Grantland, January 28, 2015, http://grantland.com/the-triangle/qa-with-orlandos-nikola-vucevic-on-theme-parks-nicknames-and-more/.
213 “Midrange jump-shooter”: Howard Beck, “Knicks Trade Francis, Frye for Portland’s Randolph,” New York Times, June 29, 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/29/sports/basketball/KNICKS-WEB.html?_r=0.
Chapter 9
219 Made him into a good shooter: Chris Vivlamore, “The Making of a Sharp-Shooter,” Atlanta Journal-Constitution, February 14, 2013, http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/basketball/family-center-korver-becoming-one-nbas-best-shoote/nWPNs/.
220 Machine for the Nets’ team offices: Zach Lowe, “An Offense unto Himself,” Grantland, July 29, 2014, http://grantland.com/features/kyle-korver-nba-atlanta-hawks/.
226 When he releases a shot: Jeff Zillgitt, “Kyle Korver vs. Perfection,” USA Today, January 31, 2015, http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/hawks/2015/02/02/kyle-korver-vs-perfection-atlanta-three-point-shot/22693565/.
231 Attention of the league’s best players: NBA, “League Player Stats,” NBA.com, http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/shooting/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&DistanceRange=By%20Zone&sort=Restricted%20Area%20FG%20PCT&dir=1.
Epilogue
237 Carrying for the Cavaliers: Tom Haberstroh, “LeBron James’ Unfathomable Workload,” ESPN.com, June 14, 2015, http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2015/story/_/id/13071387/lebron-james-unfathomable-workload.
239 To be a truly inspired idea: Lee Jenkins, “Meet Nick U’Ren: The Warriors Staffer with the Idea to Start Andre Iguodala,” Sports Illustrated, June 12, 2015, http://www.si.com/nba/2015/06/12/warriors-steve-kerr-nick-uren-andre-iguodala-andrew-bogut-nba-finals-cavaliers.
239 In time for Game 4: Marc Spears, “The Mystery Man Behind the Plan that Helped the Warriors Win Game 4 of the NBA Finals,” Yahoo! Sports, June 12, 2015, http://sports.yahoo.com/news/the-mystery-man-behind-the-plan-that-helped-the-warriors-win-game-4-of-the-nba-finals-080509364.html.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Alamar, Ben. Sports Analytics: A Guide for Coaches, Managers and Other Decision Makers. New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 2013.
Barry, Rick, and Jordan Cohn. Rick Barry’s Pro Basketball Bible. Los Angeles, CA: Bonus Books, 1994.
Bellotti, Robert. Basketball’s Hidden Game: Points Created, Boxscore Defense, and Other Revelations. New Brunswick, NJ: Night Work Pub. Co., 1988.
Heeren, Dave. Basketball Abstract 1991–92. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice- Hall, 1991.
Hollinger, John. Pro Basketball Prospectus. Herndon, VA: Potomac Books, 2004.
James, Bill. Baseball Abstract. Lawrence, KS: Self-published, 1977.
Manley, Martin. Basketball Heaven 1990. New York, NY: Doubleday, 1989.
McGuire, Frank. Defensive Basketball. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1959.
Oliver, Dean. Basketball on Paper: Rules and Tools for Performance Analysis. Herndon, VA: Potomac Books, 2003.
O’Neal, Shaquille, and Jackie MacMullen. Shaq Uncut: My Story. New York, NY: Grand Central Publishing, 2011.
Paine, Neil. “Linear Weights: Ranking the Formulas.” Basketball Prospectus, January 2, 2012.
Pelton, Kevin. “The Great Analytics Rankings.” ESPN.com, February 23, 2015. http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings.
Shea, Stephen, and Christopher Baker. Basketball Analytics: Objective and Efficient Strategies for Understanding How Teams Win. Lake St. Louis, MO: Advanced Metrics LLC, 2013.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
There are a great many people without whom this book would not have been possible.
I owe initial gratitude to my literary agent, Eric Nelson, who patiently and professionally critiqued a number of ideas for a nonfiction basketball book before we hit upon this one. He and Sydelle Kramer, who took over my account at Susan Rabiner Literary Agency when Eric returned to the editorial side of the business, have been invaluable with their advice and support. Likewise, I am grateful to Perseus Books and Da Capo Press for believing in the project. My editor, Dan Ambrosio, was incredibly positive and patient throughout the whole process with a first-time book author.
Of course, no book can exist without its subjects. I was fortunate to connect with a large number of incredibly smart, interesting, and talented people, all of whom have tremendous passion for basketball and/or technology.
I’d like to thank the many NBA teams and their media relations staffs that provided significant access to their players, coaches, and management. Notables include Raymond Ritter and Matt de Nesnera from the Golden State Warriors; Garin Narain, Jon Steinberg, and Jason Roose from the Atlanta Hawks; Chris Clark from the Sacramento Kings; and Chris Wallace from the Philadelphia 76ers. A special thank you goes to Tim Gelt of the Denver Nuggets. Living in Denver, I was able to use the Nuggets games as a home base through which to gain access to many other NBA teams, and Tim spent the entire year being extremely helpful and supportive of my presence during what was a difficult season for the franchise. Also, thanks to Craig Miller at USA Basketball, who helped arrange access and information regarding our junior and senior national teams.
For the off-court pieces of the book, I want to specifically thank Rajiv Maheswaran, Garrick Barr, Brian Kopp, Marcus Elliott, Michael Clark, and Paul Robbins for spending significant amounts of time with me on the phone and in person, which allowed me to more fully understand the businesses they have built around technology and science that help drive ongoing player and team performance. Where we currently are is remarkable, and I’m so excited to see where everything goes next.
There were additional people who were extraordinarily helpful, providing tremendous insights and soundchecks on the ideas and structure of the book
. I’d like to specifically thank media colleagues Zach Lowe, Matt Moore, Jay Bilas, Fran Fraschilla, Jeff Goodman, and Luke Winn for their wide-ranging perspectives on basketball across all levels of the sport. I also must thank Steve Hellmuth, the NBA’s director of technology, who was remarkably insightful during our conversations and very interested in the project. The NBA is in great hands with him leading the ongoing innovations.
I also received tremendous support from a number of individuals who assisted in the information-gathering and writing processes. There is no way this book would have happened without the transcribing work of Lucy McCalmont and Jacob Rosen. Lucy, especially, was remarkable in both her enthusiasm and production. Additionally, thanks to Seth Partnow for being available throughout the writing process and for vetting chapters as they were completed, providing terrific insights as to how they could be improved.
To all of the basketball players, coaches, and team officials who participated or just let me watch you perform, thank you. Getting to immerse myself in your world was fascinating. The sport is in very good hands.
On a personal level, I want to thank Jamie O’Grady, cofounder and editor in chief of The Cauldron, the national sports publication we launched right before I signed the deal for this book. There were months along the way when I had to dedicate most of my time to the book, and Jamie carried the operation in my stead. It’s been a blast working with him and building something really cool. I also advise you never to write a book while trying to launch a startup. It’s insane.
I’d also like to thank Sandy Padwe, my sportswriting professor at Columbia School of Journalism, who had faith in a raw writer who was changing careers from consulting, and Sports Illustrated’s Tim Layden, who helped me vastly improve my first longform feature at SI.com. That piece made me believe that, someday, I could write a book.
Lastly, I owe tremendous gratitude to all parts of my family.
My mom and dad remain as proud of me now as when they were raising me. I’ve always been fortunate to have a loving and supportive nuclear family that includes my terrific sister, as well.
My best friend, Raj, is like the brother I never had, and is one of the most passionate NBA fans I know. Thank you for more than a quarter century of laughs and sports discussions.
My three children are my shining lights, and they all give up a lot of time with me, as my work often happens at night or involves travel. I am excited to have more “dad time” with them now that this book is finished.
To my wife, Gina, I don’t have enough words to express how lucky I am to be with you. Beyond everything you do for our family while juggling your own terrific career, your love, support, and belief in me are remarkable. None of this—this book, this career, this life—would be possible without you. I love you.
INDEX
Abdul-Jabbar, Kareem, 13
Adams, Ron, 168
aging players, 49–56
Alamar, Ben, 135–138, 140
Aldridge, David, 44
Aldridge, LaMarcus, 57, 70
Alexander, Carroll, 26
Allen, Tony, 67, 124, 197
AlleyOop.com, 21
Alston, Rafer, 173
Amateur Athletic Union, 82
analytics
accessibility of, 98–104
Ben Alamar, 135–138
biometric data collection, 118–124
boringness of play, 71–72
Boston Celtics, 142–145
calculating Harden’s star potential, 204–205
Calipari’s platoon system, 77–80
college-level play, 89–94
Colorado State, 90–94
Duke, 94–97
early analysts, 18–22
economic analyses, 10–15
Golden State’s in-season team development, 164–172
high school-level play, 80–89
influencing hiring and trade choices, 127–130
information gathering and analysis structures, 25, 134–135, 137–140, 148–150
integrity of the data, 31–34, 38–39, 146–147, 149
Khris Middleton’s WARP, RAPM and RPM scores, 198–200
manageability of information, 42–43
origins of, 36–37
role of coaching skill in utilizing, 144–146
Sacramento Kings’ team-building experiment and mismanagement, 127–134
San Antonio Spurs’ strategic roster management, 48–57
Second Spectrum, 29–36, 38–39
speed of technological advances, 7–8
2015 NBA Finals, 239–240
Anderson, Ryan, 230
Antic, Pero, 185
antitrust litigation, 9–10, 15
APBR metrics movement, 18, 20
Ariza, Trevor, 172, 175–176, 178
Association for Professional Basketball Research (APBR), 18, 20
Atlanta Hawks, 70
Korver trade, 227–229
Korver’s performance, 232–233
NBA conference final, 163–166
no-star system, 178–186
racism scandal, 179–180
team development with analytics, 163–164
AVID Sports Pro, 36
Avila, JJ, 91–92
Ayers, Randy, 221
Ballard, Chris, 26
Barkley, Charles, 72, 171
Barnes, Harrison, 168–169, 236
Barr, Garrick, 36–37, 39–40, 72
baseball, 9–11, 15, 17–18
Baseball Abstracts (James), 17–18
Basketball Heaven (Manley), 18–19
Basketball on Paper (Oliver), 20
Basketball State service, 89
Basketball-Reference.com, 23, 61, 166, 172, 175–176, 210
Battier, Shane, 155–156
Bazemore, Kent, 185
B-Ball simulation program, 19
BBallBreakdown, 177
Beal, Bradley, 82, 88
Beech, Roland, 21–23, 134
Bejarano, Daniel, 91–93
Belinelli, Marco, 53, 55
Bellotti, Bob, 19
Berger, Ken, 119–120
Beverley, Patrick, 172, 176
biometric data collection, 118–124
Blatt, David, 186, 189, 191, 236–237
Bleacher Report, 189
Bledsoe, Eric, 77
blood samples, 119
Bogut, Andrew, 3–4, 170, 193 (quote), 194–198, 236, 240
Booker, Devin, 79
Bosh, Chris, 72, 175
Boston Celtics, 26, 217 (quote), 235
analytics approach, 142–145
Brad Stevens’s coaching career, 142–143
Guth’s analysis of, 13–15
2015 NBA Finals, 236
box plus-minus scores, 53 (fig.), 56–57, 81, 101, 198–199, 206, 209
Bradley, Gus, 98
Bradshaw, Zach, 211
Brand, Elton, 185
Brenner, Jordan, 206
Brewer, Corey, 176
Brewer, Ronnie, 112
BrewHoop site, 200
Brooklyn Nets, 19, 211, 220, 233
Brooks, Aaron, 173
Brown, Brett, 59, 61–62
Bryant, Kobe, 44, 67, 122, 176
Budenholzer, Mike, 179–183, 227–229, 231
Buenning, Eric, 200
Buford, RC, 51
Buss, Jeanie, 60
Butler, Caron, 198
Butler, Jimmy, 207
Butler University, 141–142
Bynum, Andrew, 57–58, 209
Calipari, John, 75 (quote), 76–80
Camby, Marcus, 76
Canaan, Isaiah, 64
Cannon, Drew, 141–144
Carlisle, Rick, 21–22
Carroll, DeMarre, 180, 184–185
Carter-Williams, Michael, 60, 202
Catapult Sports, 41–44, 119–121
The Cauldron, 51, 206–207
Chaikin, Bob, 19
Chandler, Tyson, 232
Chang, Yu-Han, 30
C
harlotte Hornets, 23, 212–213
Cheeks, Maurice, 14
Chicago Bulls, 147, 180, 225, 227
Clark, Michael, 113–118, 125
Cleveland Cavaliers, 14
Eastern Conference finals, 186
Korver’s injury, 233
LeBron James draft, 148
team development with analytics, 163–164
2015 NBA Finals, 235–237, 239–240
working around LeBron’s return, 186–192
Colangelo, Jerry, 1–2, 85–86
Coleman, Derrick, 23
collective bargaining, 119–120, 203–204
college basketball, 75–77
accessibility of analytics, 99–104
analytics at Colorado State, 90–94
analytics at Duke, 94–97
Atlanta Hawks’ team chemistry, 184–185
Brad Stevens’s coaching career, 141–142
Channing Frye, 214
family culture, 219–221
James Harden’s stats, 203
Khris Middleton’s stats, 198, 200
Nikola Vucevic, 208–211
predicting future development, 210–213
recruitment from junior colleges, 98–99
University of Kentucky, 76–77
Collison, Darren, 128, 134–136
Colorado State University, 90–94
Concepcion, Jason, 71
Conley, Mike, 67
Copeland, Chris, 186
Corbin, Ty, 133
“counting” statistics, 16–17
Cousins, DeMarcus “Boogie,” 3, 77, 87, 128, 130, 133–134, 199
Crean, Tom, 104
cross-ownership, 9–10, 131
crowdsourcing analysis exercise, 127–128
cryochamber, 114–115
Cuban, Mark, 8, 20, 38, 42
Curry, Eddy, 213
Curry, Stephen “Steph,” 6, 87
Curry/Thompson team core, 164–165, 167
FIBA World Cup tryout camp, 2
Golden State’s offensive and defensive efficiency, 169–170
Harden’s performance and, 207–208
Kerr’s offensive strategies, 168
Korver’s performance, 231
net rating, 196–197
real plus-minus score, 199
2015 NBA Finals, 236
Dalembert, Samuel, 173–174
D’Alessandro, Pete, 127, 129–133
Chasing Perfection: A Behind-the-Scenes Look at the High-Stakes Game of Creating an NBA Champion Page 26
