Shattered Trident

by Larry Bond

  Petrov nodded silently.

  “You know that immediately following this meeting, I’m going to give this information to my government’s intelligence service.”

  “We’d rather it was passed directly to your decision-makers. That’s what your CIA would, or should do with it anyway. I believe your wife, Dr. Patterson, works closely with the national security adviser. We met, once, after the inquest was over. Please give her my regards.”

  “I’ll consider your suggestion, but I make no promises,” Hardy answered. “I also can’t promise where the information will go once I’ve passed it on.”

  “To your president, I hope,” Petrov replied, “and I ask for no conditions. But we believe the information is true. It is also in our best interest to convey this to your leadership. We have a long border with China. ‘If your neighbor’s house is on fire, you must look to your own property.’”

  “Is that a Russian proverb?” Hardy asked.

  “Chinese, actually.”

  Hardy laughed, but agreed with the sentiment. Russia couldn’t be seen openly helping the United States, hence the covert nature of the communication.

  “Is there anything you can offer that corroborates this information?”

  Petrov looked puzzled for a moment, but then said, “If you mean some visible proof, watch the reactions of the Japanese, Vietnamese, and South Koreans in the next few days. They will react quickly and effectively, because they knew about this ahead of time, and similarly because they are sharing information.

  “Also, I must apologize. I was chosen because of my personal contacts within the American Navy. My first choice was Captain Rudel, but he’s retired now. Evidently, he’s a history teacher in Ohio.”

  Hardy nodded and laughed. “Tom wanted something a little less stressful. Somehow, I don’t know if a room full of high school kids qualifies. He also runs their NJROTC program at the school.”

  “I am disappointed that I did not have the opportunity see him. If you are in contact with him, please give him my greatest respects and good wishes, likewise to Commander Mitchell. I know North Dakota is based in Hawaii. Since he was not available, Dr. Patterson or you were our next choice. I gather your wife has been very busy lately. I could not reach her.”

  Hardy didn’t explain what Joanna was involved with. “I’m not offended, Captain. I’m glad to be on the same list with them.”

  “Good. One other thing.” He held up a hardcover book. “With the Pacific so much in the news lately, I found this at Heathrow Airport while I was making the connection to come here.” He slid the volume across to Hardy. The cover appeared dark blue from a distance, but close up he could see it was actually a map of Asia and the Pacific. The title, in gold letters, was Navies for Asia, by Sajin Komamura.

  Petrov said, “I read it on the flight, and it’s very informative.”

  31 August 2016

  1415 Local Time

  The White House

  Washington, D.C.

  They waited in Kirkpatrick’s office.

  “You had lunch at Siné and didn’t invite me?” Joanna looked angry and hurt. Hardy wasn’t sure whether she was serious or not. Better to play it straight.

  “I couldn’t invite you. Besides, weren’t you busy here?” Hardy protested.

  “Yes, and I had my usual turkey sandwich. I’m getting too many of my meals from the White House food service.” She sounded unhappy. “You could have called and asked, and I could have turned you down.”

  “I had no idea what the meeting was about—none at all. I certainly didn’t imagine Alex Petrov was going to be there.”

  “It would have been wonderful to see him again.”

  “The idea was to keep a low profile. You would have made a fuss and hugged him, just like with Jerry.”

  “You heard about that?” She sounded surprised. “At the squadron briefing? On Guam?”

  “It’s a small community. Word gets around,” he said casually.

  She shrugged. “I admit it. I’m a hugger.”

  “And it’s one of your many virtues.”

  Ray Kirkpatrick ducked his head in the door. “The president’s ready for you.”

  It was only a short distance, but they still hurried. Hardy tried to keep his focus. This wasn’t his first trip to the Oval Office, but it wasn’t what he’d planned for the afternoon. The air seemed a little thin—at least that was one explanation for his light-headedness.

  The president’s office was crowded. In addition to Myles and Milt Alvarez, the secretary of state, Andy Lloyd, and the director of national intelligence, Greg Alexander, were also waiting. Neither looked happy.

  Myles met them almost as they came in the door. “Joanna, Senator Hardy … Lowell,” he corrected himself, while shaking their hands. “You’ve performed yet another valuable service.”

  “The Russians contacted me, Mr. President. I can’t take credit for this.”

  “But you carried the ball perfectly when they passed it to you. Please, have a seat.” Myles gestured to the two couches in the center of the room. Myles and Hardy shared one couch, while Alexander and Patterson sat across from them. There was plenty of room for Lloyd, but he remained standing. He looked like he wanted to pace, but was fighting it.

  Alexander said, “The folks at CIA are still going through the CD that was tucked into the book he gave you, as well as examining the book itself. The disc has a series of reports from the source Petrov mentioned. It matches the story he told you, and we now have a name: the ‘Littoral Alliance.’ Plus we get a little bit of their timeline, but not much about the ‘imminent threat’ they’re so concerned about.”

  “Imminent implies near-term, does it not? What, if anything, are the Chinese doing that could have all these nations so spooked?” Myles asked.

  “If that’s even the correct word,” Lloyd grumbled. “The reports are in Russian, but apparently were translated originally from Japanese, and now into English.”

  Alexander ignored the SecState’s comment and answered Myles’s question. “The only thing the Chinese are doing in the near term that we’re aware of is the large exercise in the South China Sea, and we already knew the Vietnamese were concerned enough about it to mine the Chinese carrier.”

  Kirkpatrick volunteered a different definition. “A better word might be ‘alarmed,’ Mr. President. And whatever Vietnam knew has now convinced three other countries to join them in a covert war.”

  “We’ll do our best to find out if there’s something going on besides the exercise,” Alexander assured them. “There’s always the possibility that it was being used as a distraction or cover.”

  “Andy, do you have any questions for the senator?” inquired Myles.

  Lloyd shook his head quickly. “No, sir, I don’t, and thank you for your service this afternoon, Senator.”

  As Hardy nodded his acknowledgement, Lloyd continued. “To me, this is a logical move for the Russians. Like us, the last thing they need is China at war. If things got bad in China, the refugee problem alone could be disastrous for Russia.

  “We have more influence in the region, with Japan and South Korea as formal allies, and our security arrangements with Taiwan. With this warning, we can work to limit the crisis and position ourselves to keep our people safe, and limit our own involvement.”

  “Is that your recommendation, Andy?” asked the president.

  “Boiled down to the basics, yes, sir. My staff is still drawing up our formal recommendations, but that’s what my experience says. Wars always last longer than the people who start them think they will, and the longer a war lasts, the more it spreads. What if North Korea tries to take advantage of the situation? Can Taiwan stay out of it even if it wants to? And what about the strains of a war on the Chinese economy? We know it’s fragile, and this ‘Littoral Alliance’ is chipping away at the supports.”

  Myles held up his hands. “Too many questions, too little information. This meeting is about the Russians’ message, as d
elivered by the honorable senator from Connecticut.”

  He turned to Hardy. “Given the nature of this message, I think we all would have liked to speak to the messenger ourselves. Still, I’m satisfied the Russians have provided information that they believe is true.” He stood, and the others did as well. Myles shook Hardy’s hand again. “Lowell, know you’ve got a friend here if you need one.”

  “Thank you, sir. One quick question.” He turned slightly to face Greg Alexander. “Do you think the CIA’s lab is done with the book yet?”

  Alexander was surprised for a moment, then answered, “Of course. It was a gift from Alex Petrov. I’ll make sure the lab doesn’t mangle it, but it will take a few more days before they’re done. Is that all right?”

  “Yes, sir. But I wanted to read it as well.”

  “You should probably get another copy, then,” replied Alexander, smiling.

  Myles said, “Joanna, can you come back right away, please? We have more to discuss.”

  Taking the hint, she left with her husband while the others sat down again.

  Myles waited for the door to close before asking Alexander, “What’s Petrov doing now?”

  The DNI glanced at his watch. “It’s been a little over two hours since we received Hardy’s report. Petrov arrived in the U.S. this morning at Dulles airport with a diplomatic visa. We’ve made a quiet search of the Crystal City area without spotting him. He has not visited the embassy, and is scheduled to fly out this evening from Dulles at 9:45. Did you want to question him further? We can detain him there, if you wish.”

  “Detain him? Are you nuts?” Myles exclaimed. “No, just the opposite. Get someone to Dulles and make sure Petrov has no issues getting to his flight. No TSA screw-ups, no random searches. I owe that guy a steak dinner. The least we can do is make sure he makes his flight home.”

  Patterson returned within minutes, carrying an armful of documents. She handed them to Kirkpatrick while she slipped into her chair. As he started to skim them, he said, “Go ahead, Joanna.”

  “All the armed forces in the region have gone to heightened states of readiness. No surprise there. It’s the logical move. There’s no general pattern that we can point to, but specific incidents do support the Russians’ claim. They’ve held air-raid drills in Vietnam, South Korea, and Taiwan.

  “All available Aegis ships in the Japanese and South Korean navies are at sea, with heavy escort. They are taking positions to protect those countries from ballistic missile and air attacks originating from Mainland China.

  “Vietnam has reinforced its border with China, and ELINT shows that some of their best air-defense units have been deployed there as well.

  “As far as we can tell, there’s been no unusual military activity by India.”

  Lloyd remarked, “Keeping a low profile, no doubt. And submarines?”

  She sighed. “A lot of their subs are missing from their home ports, more than enough for a campaign against China. But countries do their best to hide sub movements, even in peacetime. Nobody can be ruled out, or in, based on that criterion alone.”

  “No smoking torpedo tube, then.” Myles’s frustration was clear. “Andy, has there been word from any of these four governments, or China for that matter?”

  “The Chinese are still keeping mum. All of the countries in the region have issued the usual statements about ‘preparing a response to this grave situation.’ Usually that means they don’t have a clue what’s going on, except now we know that four of them know damn well what’s happening!”

  “If we act on our knowledge of this ‘Littoral Alliance,’ won’t we risk tipping our hand to China? We know what’s going to happen when they find out who’s behind the attacks,” cautioned Patterson.

  Ray Kirkpatrick replied guardedly, “We won’t be giving that much away. China must have suspicions, including Vietnam, of course. And reports are circulating in the media now about an ‘international conspiracy’ behind the attacks, and naming Vietnam as one of the actors.”

  “All right, then.” Myles sounded almost relieved. “Let’s try the front door. Andy, draft a note to the four countries involved, asking what they know about the sinkings. Make sure it says that we’re only asking those four countries.”

  “A formal first-person note?” Lloyd confirmed.

  “For my signature,” Myles replied. “Nothing public, of course. We’ll just ask them flat out.”

  “And when they lie and say they don’t know?” Lloyd asked.

  “They won’t. They can’t stay hidden from China forever. Asking only those four makes it clear we’ve got some idea of what’s going on. What we need from them is why this is happening. Andy, your job is to come up with ways to keep this from turning into an open war.”

  “Oh, I thought it was going to be something hard.”

  Myles laughed along with the rest, but warned, “If China directly attacks Japan or South Korea, the U.S. is compelled to respond. If that happens, it’s out of our control and nobody can predict how far this will go, or who lives and who dies.”

  10

  DECISION

  1 September 2016

  Tokyo University, Waseda Campus

  Hongo, Bunkyo Ward, Tokyo

  “We need to know, Doctor, what will the Americans do?” Hisagi Shuhei was an assistant to Foreign Minister Tadashi, and if he was being accurate, spoke not only for the Japanese Foreign Ministry, but in this case for the other Littoral Alliance members.

  “The last meeting accomplished nothing,” Hisagi complained. “Everyone was shocked that the alliance had been ‘discovered’ by America, even though it had to happen sooner or later. Perhaps this crisis has come on us too quickly. The alliance has no process for collaborative decision-making.”

  Or planning, Komamura thought to himself. He had locked the door to his office and was listening to Hisagi on headphones while he watched the diplomat on the monitor. The man was visibly worried, stress adding years to his forty-something appearance.

  “When you’re dying of thirst, it’s too late to dig a well.”

  “Another Chinese proverb?” Hisagi asked.

  “Japanese,” Komamura answered. “Instead of discussing the question beforehand and having a plan in place, the alliance leadership prefers to wander aimlessly. No wonder they are easily surprised. They cannot reach a consensus even after the event.” Komamura knew he was scolding Hisagi, but he needed scolding.

  Along with Admiral Kubo, Hisagi was Japan’s political representative on the “working group,” the ambiguous-sounding name for the Littoral Alliance’s advisory body. Each of the four nations sent two representatives that coordinated the alliance’s actions. The civilians were supposed to set broad policy, while the military ran the war. It had worked so far, but the only policy decision they had made was to begin the war.

  “I’ve mentioned before that you needed to be ready for this,” Komamura mused. “I don’t have any special insight into the Americans’ intentions.”

  “With respect, sensei, I disagree. Everyone on the council, civilian and military, respects your wisdom.”

  That was not as comforting as Hisagi intended. To be truthful, Komamura was dismayed when he thought about the chaos his book had caused. His “wisdom” had taken life and wrought violence. But if one accepted his arguments, it was inevitable. That Komamura could see the problem clearly was a tribute to his academic experience. Still, it made him a reluctant advisor.

  He’d tried to keep clear of the alliance’s decision-making processes, but it appeared that plan was doomed. All right, then, if they needed him to assume the role of grand vizier that badly, then he’d assume it fully.

  Komamura asked, “Is there any sign that the Chinese have confirmed the identities of the four countries?”

  Hisagi shook his head. “None of the alliance intelligence arms has any indication, Professor. And besides, if the Chinese did, they wouldn’t keep quiet about it.”

  “They might if they were preparing a
surprise counterstroke,” Komamura countered, “but the Chinese would not wait long. That blow would fall quickly. And it is only a matter of time until they have their proof.”

  “But how do we answer the Americans?” Hisagi persisted. “They know.”

  Komamura fought back impatience and frustration. Coalition warfare was difficult at best, and Hisagi was inexperienced at this type of thing. The members of the working group had been picked by their governments because they were not top-ranking officials whose movements would attract unwelcome attention. They were competent, of course, but unused to speaking for their governments.

  “And what power does their knowledge have?” Komamura asked. Then he reasoned, “If we say, ‘Yes, there is an alliance, join us,’ the Americans will refuse. That gives us nothing. If we say no they will know we are lying, but they will not tell the Chinese either.”

  He saw Hisagi sit back in his chair, working through the logic. “So we gain nothing by admitting our involvement, and lose nothing by denying it.”

  “Certainly this was discussed by the working group,” Komamura stated.

  “It was, indeed, but one person was worried that if we denied it, the Americans would be offended…”

  Komamura laughed, but quickly stopped. “That is why silence is better than a lie. I hope it wasn’t one of the foreign service officials.”

  “No, Professor, it was one of the naval officers. Another expressed hope that while the Americans might not participate, they would publicly support our cause, or perhaps act as an intermediary between the alliance and China to negotiate a cease-fire.”

  “Really?” Komamura’s tone made Hisagi smile.

  “Are the Chinese close to breaking, Professor?” Hisagi sounded like a man looking for a reason to hope.

  Komamura immediately answered, “No, not yet. It’s only been a short while. We have dealt the Chinese a heavy blow, but they are powerful and no less determined than we are.”