Shattered Trident

by Larry Bond

  “To the leaders of the Pacific nations engaged in this war, if our use of nuclear weapons, even in this nonlethal way, has shocked you, then pause in your struggle and consider the horror that lies inevitably in front of us. The death tolls in Seoul, Tokyo, and other cities thus far will be trivial compared to the holocaust after a nuclear weapon strikes them.

  “The environmental damage caused by our eight detonations is not as great as the harm already caused by one wrecked supertanker. The South China Sea, the major prize in this struggle, is losing its luster daily as war’s ruin fills it with poison.

  “We have not done this from some altruistic desire for peace. This is naked, if enlightened, self-interest. A Chinese economy in ruins is a global catastrophe that could drag the rest of the world down with it. A nuclear exchange would be far worse. The world is too small now for wars such as this, and only a fool would think that the belligerents would be the only ones to suffer.”

  18 September 2016

  1330 Local Time

  Littoral Alliance Headquarters

  Okutama, Nishitama District

  Tokyo, Japan

  The delegates had all gathered to hear the American president’s speech. As soon as he mentioned “nuclear devices,” the room had erupted in chaos, with shouts and exclamations in half a dozen languages. Aides ran out to confirm Myles’s announcement with their respective governments. Some delegates without translators asked others to confirm what seemed unbelievable. Surely their English skills weren’t that bad.

  By the time the aides had begun to straggle back in, Myles had finished his speech and the delegates were listening to a replay, some making notes, others just holding their heads in their hands. Not a word was spoken until Myles’s speech ended again.

  Lieutenant Commander Xang was the aide to Admiral Han, the Taiwanese military representative, and the most senior aide. He stood in front of the admiral, quickly bowed, and reported, “Both of our submarines currently on patrol report their sonars are completely blind. The time coincides with the Americans’ announcement. On his authority, Commander Submarines has ordered both subs back to port, and forbidden any other sailings until better sonar conditions develop.”

  The other aides all followed in order, and their messages were similar. Ships and subs at sea were all heading for the nearest friendly port at their best speed. Some had asked the working group for their concurrence. Numbly, and by a simple show of hands, the offensive campaign at sea was unanimously “suspended, until acoustic conditions improve.” Myles was right. In one stroke, they had been hobbled.

  The military confirmations were hardly needed. Within minutes of Myles’s broadcast, scientific stations, civilian observers, even weather satellites had posted information about the detonations on the Internet. Wild speculation about the physical effects would reverberate long after the acoustic pulse had faded.

  Minister Jan Ignacio, the Filipino civilian representative, chaired the working group this week, and called them to order.

  “Mister Chairman, I have a motion,” cried a Taiwanese representative.

  “Mister Chairman, I demand an immediate release condemning the American action,” urged the representative from Singapore.

  “Mister Chairman…”

  By the time Ignacio sorted out the immediate and most emotional demands from the delegates, the anti-American release was tabled, as was a motion for an immediate cease-fire. Trying to buy time, Ignacio asked Lieutenant Commander Xang to brief them on the blue-out phenomenon. Was Myles correct? Would this last for days?

  Xang deferred to a different officer, with a degree in acoustics. He expanded on the president’s description. High-frequency sonars, used by torpedoes and mine-hunters, would return first, maybe in twelve hours or so, but the low-frequency bands, used for long-range search by subs and surface ships alike, were blocked for at least two days. The only thing to do was head for port and hope for the best.

  The Korean minister was incensed. “The Americans have taken away our best weapon. Our aircraft can’t match the Chinese Air Force’s numbers, and we can only hope for a handful of ballistic missiles.”

  “That’s why we should offer terms for a cease-fire,” the Taiwanese delegate insisted. “If we continue to use cruise missiles…” He didn’t complete his sentence, but saw several heads nodding agreement.

  “We must continue,” the Indian delegate argued. “We’ve already inflicted terrible damage on the Chinese economy. They are already deep into their strategic reserves. If we keep them on a war footing, and at the same time continue choking off their imports, they’ll be faced with complete collapse soon. Then we won’t have to offer terms. We can dictate them.”

  Minister Hisagi disagreed. “We should think carefully before we back the Chinese leadership into a corner. Desperate men use different rules. Also, Dr. Komamura has always insisted that the Chinese themselves may not know where the edge is. By then, it might be too late.”

  “Then perhaps the professor can give us an update. We’d all welcome his counsel.”

  But Komamura’s chair was empty. Hisagi sent his aide to find the doctor and ask him to rejoin the meeting. But in the end, Hisagi and Orihara were the ones who went to the doctor.

  * * *

  They’d found him on the floor of his small quarters, Miyazaki collapsed on top of him, sobbing. They tried to help her up, but she clung to Komamura, crying, “It’s too late. It doesn’t matter. He’s gone. He’s gone.”

  Dr. Ono had arrived by this point, and his simple check and solemn nod confirmed their worst fears. As Ono stepped back from the body, the news passed from person to person, and a silence spread out from his room and through the halls.

  Captain Madarame, in charge of security, hustled the onlookers away. Even Hisagi and Orihara had to stand outside. After asking Miyazaki a few questions, he stepped out into the hall and spoke to the two representatives.

  He showed them a vial of prescription medicine. DO NOT TAKE WITH ALCOHOL was printed in red along the top of the label. The vial was empty. “There was an empty flask of sake next to him as well. Dr. Ono says that even a third of the vial would have been fatal, and there must have been at least that much in there.” Madarame sighed. “It was quick. He didn’t even have time to lie down on the bed.”

  Attendants appeared with a litter, and another confrontation with Miyazaki began. Her coworkers on Komamura’s staff, fellow graduate students, interceded and gently separated her from the professor, promising that she could see him to the ambulance. They escorted her out, promising she would not be left alone.

  “You should see this,” Madarame said, ushering the two representatives into his room and pointing to the screen of his personal laptop computer. “He left a message. Don’t touch anything. This is a crime scene until the examiner declares it a suicide.”

  Careful to stay back, Hisagi and Orihara bent over, squinting to read the display at that distance. After several moments, Hisagi asked, “May I print this page? It’s very important.”

  Madarame reluctantly nodded. “Let me record which keys you press.”

  * * *

  Word of the note spread ahead of them, so that by the time they arrived back in the meeting room, it was full, with staff crowding the sides and back until it was impossible to move. Miyazaki, red-faced after her sad good-bye, had been given a chair near the front.

  Hisagi didn’t bother with explanations. “This is what he wrote.”

  My good friends and dear colleagues, I can no longer bear the sadness and shame of this war. Even if my economic theories are correct, I was wrong to think that they must inevitably lead to conflict. We were too quick to take the path of violence, and I must take responsibility for my poor judgment. With my death, I ask that the delegates of Littoral Alliance pursue peace with the same energy that they applied to war.

  Half an hour later, the Littoral Alliance declared a unilateral cease-fire, beginning at 1200 GMT, and offered to send representatives to a neutr
al country of China’s choice to begin peace negotiations.

  18 September 2016

  1400 Local Time

  August 1st Building, Ministry of National Defense Compound

  Beijing, People’s Republic of China

  President Chen Dao read the communiqué from the secretary general of the United Nations. Would the Chinese accept the cease-fire? Bangkok, Thailand, and Wellington, New Zealand, had both offered to host the peace negotiations. Were either of these acceptable, or did the Chinese have a different location in mind?

  Every member of the CMC had his own copy, not that it took that long to read. None of them spoke. A tomb would be noisier.

  “They’ve put us in a very small box, Comrades. If we refuse such an offer, the world will impose more sanctions. If we continue to fight, we will quickly exhaust our store of conventional missiles, and eventually our oil reserves.”

  “The ‘blue-out’ will only last a few days,” General Shi of the political department argued. “We can use the time to rest and reposition our naval forces.”

  “I wouldn’t put it past the Americans to do the same thing again. It would be hard to stop them,” Chen observed. “Or worse, should we refuse, they can join the Littoral Alliance without reservation and the rest of the world will cheer them on.”

  “What about the campaign in Vietnam?” General Su argued. As chief of the General Staff, he’d personally supervised the offensive. While the PLA had gained some ground, it had not yet seized the capital, Hanoi, or any of the Vietnamese oil fields to the south.

  “Are you seeking victory, General, or redemption?” Chen asked. Su scowled, but didn’t take the bait. “We are all at the end of our political careers, Comrades. We will be blamed for the war’s start and its outcome, even those of us who did our jobs well,” he said, nodding to some of those at the table.

  “Then with so little to lose, let’s continue the struggle,” Su insisted.

  Zhang Fei, vice president and secretariat of the Chinese Communist Party, answered him. “China still has much to lose, and each day we continue fighting lengthens our recovery time by months or years. We squander our wealth to no end.” His voice was hard, but sad, not angry.

  Chen nodded in agreement as Zhang spoke, and added in almost the same tone, “Trident has failed and our economy is in tatters. We are beaten.”

  19 September 2016

  1200 Local Time

  By Water

  Halifax, Nova Scotia

  The Great Pacific War of 2016

  Posted By: Mac

  SAM784 has sent pictures of the first UN inspectors to arrive at Jinhae, South Korea. This batch is a mixture of Swedish, Polish, and Spanish naval officers, who were given a grand welcome and taken straight to the piers. Jinhae is a major base for the ROK Navy, and under the terms of the armistice, the navies of the Littoral Alliance and the PLAN are to stay in port until the final peace accord is signed. I’ve posted photos of their welcome, and their initial visit to the base. Photos aboard the ships were strictly prohibited, of course.

  The inspectors will ensure that all ships remain at the pier, with only light-caliber gun ammunition loaded. Similar inspectors will monitor the air forces of the different countries. According to SAM784, the inspectors all seemed quite keen on being in South Korea, as well as crawling about foreign warships.

  We’re still looking for someone who can tell us about the inspectors sent to the Chinese naval bases. Photos, personal accounts, whatever you’ve got. Bywater’s Blog only works because of your contributions.

  I’ve also posted photos of the reconnaissance aircraft that the U.S. government has deployed to Misawa, Japan, Clark Field in the Philippines, and Osan in South Korea. These planes are the American contribution to the newly formed UN commission that’s going to tackle the environmental damage from the over two dozen tankers (click here for a list) that were sunk during the war. It’s expected they’ll also report on any warship or submarine movements they spot. It’s probably no mistake that the U.S. Navy has donated a P-8 anti-submarine patrol squadron for the effort.

  EPILOGUE

  3 October 2016

  1500 Local Time

  Siné Irish Pub

  Arlington, Virginia

  It was hard to choose—Smithwick’s or Killian’s Red. Somehow, being indecisive felt good, almost a guilty pleasure.

  “I like the Killian’s,” Joanna suggested.

  “But that’s made by Coors now,” Hardy protested. “Smithwick’s is actually brewed in Ireland.”

  Suddenly he knew what to do. “I’ll try Siné Irish Red,” Jerry announced.

  “You don’t want to try the others?” Hardy asked.

  “I don’t like having to choose between the executive and the legislative branches,” Jerry explained, smiling.

  Joanna had suggested Siné restaurant, “Since I missed out last time,” she complained.

  “That was not my fault!” Hardy insisted. “The first thing you learn in spy school is never bring a date.”

  Jerry smiled, both on the outside and the inside. They were all in a good, no, a great mood, following the awards ceremony at the White House. Unlike after the Iran mission, this had been a public ceremony, with a second Navy Cross for Jerry, the Distinguished Service Medal for Captain Simonis, and a Presidential Unit Citation for Submarine Squadron Fifteen and the five boats that had served in it. Rebecca Halsey had come out from Guam, with Simonis as her escort, to receive Santa Fe’s award.

  Afterward, they’d all mixed with the president and other bigwigs at the reception, but then Jerry, Emily, and the Hardys had headed for Siné to celebrate quietly and decompress.

  “I heard that the president wants to appoint you special ambassador to the Littoral Alliance,” Jerry remarked. As he spoke, Patterson frowned and Hardy looked uncomfortable.

  “That’s what Senator Weitz said,” Jerry insisted. “He was complaining about special elections and how they’ll have problems finding someone for your district.”

  The senator’s expression changed from discomfort to near-misery. “I turned him down.”

  “You did what!?” Jerry didn’t know what surprised him more: Hardy rejecting the plum assignment, or Hardy saying no to the president.

  “It would have meant either living apart for at least a year,” Hardy explained, “or Joanna giving up her job and becoming ‘Mrs. Ambassador.’ I couldn’t do that. And Ray Kirkpatrick said that he’s stepping down after President Myles is reelected. There’s an obvious replacement, and I don’t want to deny her that opportunity.”

  “Not ‘if he’s reelected’?” Jerry asked.

  Hardy shook his head. “He stopped a war, and kept the U.S. economy from going completely down the toilet. While we lost some people, and the economy took a hit as well, it could have been much, much worse. And he showed some real intestinal fortitude ordering the use of nuclear weapons; he’s been getting a lot of good press for being so innovative and decisive. Sometimes the election’s about war and peace, sometimes it’s the economy. This time it was both.”

  Joanna gave her husband a gentle poke. “He didn’t even ask me. He just said no—to the president. I don’t even know if I’d want Ray’s job. I lost enough sleep as his deputy. There’s still the new Indo-Pakistani war, China’s economy is a mess, as is much of the world. The U.S economy is in pretty good shape by comparison. And weapons sales are up.” She sighed. “I would be gainfully employed.”

  “That Littoral Alliance post would be no picnic, either,” Hardy countered. “The alliance will probably continue, but their guiding light is gone. Komamura’s suicide note said he was ‘taking responsibility’ for his poor judgment. That’s a big deal in Japanese tradition. By killing himself, he explicitly admitted that his actions were dishonorable, and by implication so too were the alliance’s. It’s really taken the wind out of their sails.

  “Besides, with so many of the alliance governments in political hot water, goodness knows what shape it will take
. Democracies don’t like leaders that wage secret wars. Certainly Japan and Korea will have new governments by the end of the year. India’s already changed, and as for Taiwan, the alliance is their only hope. If mainland China wasn’t so weak…” Hardy shrugged.

  “And that’s why you should have taken the posting,” Patterson insisted. “They need someone who understands the situation. Then maybe I could get on that new UN commission that’s been formed to clean up the South and East China Seas. There is so much oil and wreckage! With the reparations that Japan, Korea, and the other alliance countries have to pay, we could really accomplish something. Of course, the UN is involved, so…”

  “And how much would I get to see you then?” Hardy demanded. “I’m good with staying in Washington, as long as we can be together … occasionally.” He gave her shoulder a squeeze.

  Patterson patted his hand affectionately, then turned back to Jerry. “And before you know it, Jerry, a year and a half will have raced by. And Emily and I can go house-hunting. Wouldn’t that be grand?”

  “I don’t know, Joanna,” said Emily, smiling. “Oahu is really very nice. I could get used to staying out there permanently. And my job in the Ocean and Resources Engineering Department at the University of Hawaii has a lot of neat perks.”

  “Nonsense! You’ve been in academia too long. Time to get back into the real world of practice. I know several UUV project managers that would give their eyeteeth to have you on their staff.”

  “It’s tempting,” Emily said whimsically. Then more excitedly, “What locations do you have in mind for this house-hunting soirée?”

  Jerry watched as the two women started making detailed plans, without so much as asking him where he’d like to go for his next duty station. He was about to inject himself into the conversation when Hardy leaned over, patted his shoulder, and said, “First, Grasshopper, you must give up the illusion of control.”