The Falcon Tattoo (The National Crime Agency Series Book 2)

by Bill Rogers

  ‘Is that a bad thing?’

  ‘That depends.’

  ‘On what?’

  ‘On whether it sharpens your senses and intensifies your motivation, or clouds your judgement.’

  ‘Is that a warning?’ she asked.

  He shook his head. ‘No. Just an observation. It’s the same for all of us.’

  Jo hoped to read the truth in Andy’s eyes, but his head was already bowed as he leafed through the papers he had brought with him. She would not have been surprised if he had meant it as a warning. After all, in the first case they had worked on together, she had thrown caution to the wind, rushing off alone to rescue the victim before backup had been organised. Hardly surprising, given that she was still haunted by the conviction that complacency had led to her own abduction.

  ‘I’m ready,’ said Ram, sitting down beside her, and placing his laptop in front of him. ‘I assume you’ve had experience of geographical profiling before, Boss?’

  ‘Substantial experience,’ she said.

  ‘Good. That saves me having to explain it. So, let’s see what it tells us in relation to our unsub.’

  He tapped his keyboard, and a map of the North West of England appeared on the SMART Board. He tapped it again and five red circles appeared.

  ‘Each of these circles marks the last known sighting of one of the unsub’s known victims,’ he said. ‘As you can see, they’re quite widely dispersed. However, they tend to follow an arc starting in Lancaster in the north, and running south through Preston and Bolton, ending up with two victims within five miles of each other, in Salford and Manchester, and then up again to Bradford.’

  ‘Following almost exactly the M6, M61 and the A6,’ Jo observed.

  ‘Correct,’ said Ram. ‘Many analysts believe that the proximity of the victim’s place of residence to the unsub’s home is the most critical factor.’ He grimaced. ‘Unfortunately, motorways tend to complicate these analyses. They make it too easy for a perpetrator to travel quickly and easily between their base and those they prey on.’ He pointed to the board. ‘Based solely on the first four attacks, and applying the geographer’s principle of nearness and the psychologist’s principle of least effort, where would these suggest our unsub is most likely to live or have a base?’

  ‘Chorley,’ said Jo, not least because the crime scene from her last case was still fresh in her mind. ‘It’s almost exactly equidistant between the locations of the first and the fourth attacks.’

  ‘What if I add the locations where the unsub left his victims after he had abducted, raped and tattooed them?’

  Ram pressed the return key. Four green dots appeared in a tighter cluster to the west of Preston, in an arrowhead from the Trough of Bowland in the north, to Darwen in the south, and Burnley in the west. Ram pointed to each in turn: ‘Samlesbury Bottoms, Cow Ark, Pickup Bank, Love Clough. Sick sense of humour or what?’

  He stepped back from the board and turned to face them.

  ‘For the sake of consistency, I’m calling these the dumpsites. Some analysts believe that over time the dumpsites will move ever closer towards the perpetrator’s home base, and therefore this is the best indicator of where the unsub might reside. Either way, the perpetrator is likely to live within a one-mile radius, angle or sector of a circle from the centre of the cluster of dumpsites or the victim’s homes.’

  ‘Blackburn,’ said Andy. ‘That becomes his new epicentre.’

  Ram nodded. ‘Tap the Return key for me, Jo,’ he said.

  Another red circle appeared, this time on the outskirts of Leeds. He joined up the red dots with one finger, to create a continuous curve equal to a quarter of a circle.

  ‘Now he’s spread his wings and followed the M62 into Yorkshire,’ said Ram, ‘how does that change the mix?’

  ‘It could be somewhere around Burnley,’ said Jo. ‘If he didn’t use the motorway. My money is on him living somewhere in that tighter circle around the dumpsites. After he’s abducted them, he clearly takes them somewhere he considers safe to assault and tattoo them. And, given that he has to release them in the early hours before anyone’s reported them missing, that only gives him a limited distance that he can travel.’

  ‘If you’re right, that would give us approximately seventy thousand males between the ages of seventeen and forty as potential suspects.’ Ram looked at Andy. ‘Assuming that’s an appropriate age range to use?’

  ‘Close enough,’ said Andy.

  ‘However, if you’re wrong,’ Ram continued, ‘then we’re talking about an overall population closer to four million, and approximately seven hundred and seventeen thousand potential suspects.’

  ‘The whole point of a geographical profile is that it adds another lens for us to look at suspects through when they actually come to our attention,’ said Jo. ‘So the closer any suspects live to these loci, the closer we’ll look at them. That’s what they failed to do in the Ripper case. Every time Sutcliffe appeared on their radar, they accepted what he told them without checking it out properly. Armed with an analysis like this, and a behavioural crime profile as well, they’d have caught him three years earlier, and saved at least five lives and possibly as many as twenty.’

  Andy sat up straight and stretched his arms.

  ‘That sounds like my cue,’ he said.

  Chapter 6

  Jo opened Andy’s report. Operation Juniper: Unsub Crime Behaviour Profile, Version 1. The psychologist was now perched on the edge of the table nearest to the SMART Board. His flask and beaker were on the table beside him.

  Andy reminded Jo of a university professor. Bespectacled, intense, radiating an air of exceptional learning. Whenever he found himself reflecting on his findings, he would remove his glasses and suck one of the temple tips, before putting them back on again.

  ‘I know that you’re both bursting to flip to the end and read the summary profile,’ he began. ‘But context is everything, as is engagement. So, I’d like to begin by inviting questions.’

  ‘How old do you think he is?’ asked Ram.

  Andy raised his eyebrows.

  ‘How do you know our unsub is a man?’

  ‘I don’t follow?’ said Ram.

  Andy looked at Jo.

  ‘Jo?’

  ‘If it is a man,’ she said, ‘we know he must be using a condom because we don’t have any semen or seminal fluids. And, because he bathes or showers his victims, we don’t have any DNA either. So, theoretically, it could be a woman. Or a man and a woman.’

  ‘Very good,’ said Andy. ‘And since all of the victims are intoxicated, drugged and petite, it would not require a great deal of strength to subdue them.’

  Ram was not convinced.

  ‘A woman. How likely is that though?’

  ‘Highly unlikely,’ the psychologist replied. ‘For lots of reasons. Which is why we will continue to refer to the unsub as him. But we mustn’t discount the possibility that we’re looking for a woman.’

  ‘What age might they be?’ asked Jo.

  ‘The average age of a convicted rapist is thirty-one,’ Andy replied. ‘The majority fall within a window that stretches from seventeen to the late forties. Repeat rapists tend to be younger than average. However, the most successful serial rapists – committing assaults over many years during which they are undetected, are generally older, often in their mid- to late forties before being arrested.’

  ‘Was Sareen Lomax’s abduction and rape his first offence?’ asked Ram.

  Andy removed his glasses, and sucked at the arm before replacing them.

  ‘My hunch is that he has raped before,’ he said. ‘Almost certainly during his adolescence. Having got away with it, as many young and silent rapists do, he has developed his methodology over the years until he has felt confident enough to draw attention to his crimes, and arrogant enough to believe that he will continue to get away with them.’

  ‘So, do you think this has been a linear progression?’ Jo wondered. ‘Or might he have been active
and undiscovered for a number of years, or stopped, and then been triggered by some event or other into starting again?’

  Andy nodded. ‘Either is possible. The abduction and rape of Sareen Lomax was too meticulous in the planning and execution to have been our unsub’s first. Nor do I think that the gap between that attack and the next one was accidental. It was a classic cooling-off period, during which he waited to see how the police proceeded, and to give him time to fine-tune his plans.’

  He removed his glasses again, took a blue microfibre cloth from his pocket, and proceeded to clean them as he talked.

  ‘Since then his attacks have escalated. Again, this is typical. It can be explained in several ways: he’s experiencing diminishing returns of satisfaction from his attacks, and becoming increasingly desperate to recapture the excitement and release that his first crimes gave him. On the contrary, the thrill that he experiences is driving him on in the way that a drug might. Or it may be that this is becoming as much an emotional and intellectual exercise, as a physical one. This is a game of risk that he’s playing with the authorities, with us. The more frequent the attacks, the greater the risk, the grander the achievement, and the more superior he proves himself to be.’

  He put the cloth back in his pocket, and replaced his glasses.

  ‘There are two aspects of his modus operandi that lead to me to veer towards the latter explanation. Firstly, the fact that he tattoos his victim is symbolic. A reminder of his control over, and possession of, his victims. Secondly, that he has been choosing locations to release his victims that have names full of irony, given the ghastly nature of his assaults on these young women. Taken together, these behaviours represent a metaphorical two-fingered salute in our direction.’

  ‘What type of rapist is he?’ asked Ram.

  ‘He’s almost certainly a silent rapist. As far as we can tell, he does not use the con approach of those who pose as police officers, authority figures or taxi drivers, for example, nor does he seem to use the blitz approach of the violent predator involving knives, gas, stun gun devices or other forms of physical threat.’

  ‘Why does he abduct his victims overnight and then release them?’ asked Jo. ‘Don’t most rapists who abduct their victims end up by killing and disposing of them?’

  Andy smiled at her.

  ‘It is true that almost all victims of rape held for more than an hour or so are murdered. This unsub has a need for intimacy with his victim, albeit that she’s drugged. He fools himself into thinking that she’s a willing partner. The tattoo he applies is a symbol of possession, a stamp of identity and a challenge to the police, and in his mind it also implies a degree of intimacy. But that does not imply empathy on the part of the unsub.’

  ‘Why does he release them?’ Jo asked. ‘Surely that would make it more likely that he’ll be caught?’

  ‘Not necessarily. Murder deposition sites are much more likely to provide useful trace evidence.’

  That was often true in Jo’s experience, but not universally so. She hoped that they didn’t have to wait for a murder before they caught this animal.

  ‘Do you think he might progress to murder?’ she asked.

  Andy’s expression was not what she had been hoping for. ‘If there’s a risk of his being identified by a victim,’ he said. ‘If he’s cornered in some way. If the victim fights back. Then I think he might well kill – and if he does, that’ll make him angry and confused, and his future behaviours unpredictable.’

  He took the silence with which that was greeted as a sign that they had run out of questions.

  ‘You may now turn to the summary,’ he said. ‘As you can see, I’ve divided this into two sections. The first summarises what I regard as his typology as a rapist based solely on his behaviours to date. The second is intended to act as an aide-memoire when considering potential suspects.’

  He stepped to one side, and brought up on the SMART Board a copy of the first of the two sections.

  ‘This is a typology of rapists,’ he began. ‘One that is commonly accepted in academic literature, based on extensive research into sexual assault. I’d categorise our unsub as a Power-Assertive, Exploitative, Selfish Perpetrator. I base that on the following behavioural markers.’

  He touched an icon on the side of the SMART Board. A copy of the first of the two summary lists appeared. He reached into the pocket of his hoody, and pulled out a red pencil-like stick. On one end was a white-gloved hand, index finger extended.

  ‘My daughter bought me this,’ he said. ‘They use them in school apparently. So much more appealing than a cursor or a laser pointer.’

  He used it to focus their attention on each bullet point in turn, sometimes adding a brief comment like a codicil.

  He has an overwhelming desire to dominate an impersonal sexual partner.

  ‘Impersonal, because she’s both a stranger to him, and unconscious at the time of the assault, which links with the next one.’

  He prefers his victims to be passive.

  ‘Then we have . . .’

  His behaviour is aggressive, but not lethal.

  ‘Not lethal yet. We have to hope that it stays that way, or that we catch him before it changes.’

  We believe that he selects victims younger than himself.

  ‘This is not typical of the standard typology, which makes it a unique, and therefore extremely important, feature.’

  We know nothing about the nature of his sexual behaviour other than it involves non-consensual penetration.

  He transports his victims to a different location, where he carries out the assault.

  He is mobile within a specific geographical region.

  He leaves his traumatised victims beside a road where they will eventually be found, but heedless of their continued vulnerability.

  ‘And finally . . .’

  The cycle, or pattern, of his attacks is shortening.

  ‘Which in the case of our unsub is of real concern.’

  He touched another icon and another list appeared.

  ‘Now,’ he said. ‘The final summary, or aide-memoire.’

  He paused to make sure that he had eye contact.

  ‘Jo,’ he said, ‘you’ll need to stress to anyone using this that it should not under any circumstances be used to eliminate suspects. Only to ring alarm bells in their heads when a potential suspect – including witnesses – appears to meet a number, not all but a number, of these criteria.’

  Jo nodded. In her experience, most officers still regarded such profiles with a high degree of scepticism, and rightly so.

  Andy removed his glasses and placed them on the table in front of him. He rubbed his eyes and then pinched the bridge of his nose. His eyes remained closed as he spoke in a deep, measured voice.

  ‘Our unsub is likely to be male, over twenty-five but under forty. White Caucasian, solely on the basis that he is more likely to blend in. Above average in height, between five foot seven and six feet tall. He will be of muscular or athletic build, and weigh between one hundred and fifty and two hundred pounds. He will come from what are now termed the technical, or established middle classes. His IQ is in the higher range. He will score on the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Full Scale between one hundred and ten and one hundred and twenty-nine, thus falling within the “bright normal” and the “very high” range. He has been educated at least to a level of further education, and quite possibly to graduate degree standard. He may be married, divorced or in a partnership with a woman, but could just as easily be single. He will be employed or self-employed, and his work or leisure pursuits will take him into universities or their environs. He’s comfortable working among women, and when he does so, he will be popular.’

  Andy refilled the beaker and replaced the lid on the flask. When he began to speak again, his eyes were open and his voice had returned to normal.

  ‘There is a misconception that all sexual predators have indulged in precursor activities that will have brought them to the attenti
on of the police. Either because they have been abused themselves, or committed petty but escalating crimes such as shoplifting, petty theft, indecent exposure, arson, assault. Statistics tell us that this is most likely the case for first-time opportunist rapists who are almost always arrested before they become repeat offenders. The true serial rapist is successful because he is, more often than not, unknown to the police. I believe that is the case with our unsub.’

  Andy lifted the beaker, and took a sip.

  ‘We know very little about the workings of a serial rapist’s mind. Those who are in captivity tend to be too arrogant and disdainful to allow us to study them. What I can say without fear of contradiction is that he has an antisocial personality disorder. He is narcissistic and deeply misogynist. He may have a history of aggressive behaviour, but it is just as likely that he has managed to find ways of relieving his aggression in non-public settings that haven’t brought him to the notice of the authorities. He sees himself as completely normal. One caveat, he will be aware that his sexual behaviour is atypical, but will have rationalised this in ways that overcome his own internal and external inhibitions, such as public morality, parental attitudes and religious beliefs. As an undetected serial perpetrator, he’s likely to appear normal. Just another man in the street. He may appear friendly, charming even. A ready smile, a reassuring hand on your arm.’

  Andy took another sip.

  ‘Which brings us finally to the vehicle he uses to transport his victims to the place where he assaults them, and then to the place where he releases them. The favoured vehicle would be a small to medium-sized delivery van, preferably with a sliding door, and without rear or side windows, or markings of any kind.’