The Longest War

by Peter L. Bergen

  strategy-in-afghanistan#document/p3.

  329 In his next cable: Gen. Karl Eikenberry, “Looking beyond counterinsurgency in Afghanistan,” November 9, 2009, published by the New York Times, http://documents.nytimes.com/

  eikenberry-s-memos

  -on-the-strategy-in-afghanistan#document/p6.

  329 came as a surprise: Peter Baker, “How Obama Came to Plan for ‘Surge’ in Afghanistan,” New York Times, December 6, 2009.

  329 penultimate meeting, on November 23: Tom Bowman and Melissa Beck, “Obama to announce Afghan strategy,” NPR, November 23, 2009; “Hillary Clinton was the most forceful advocate”: Author interview with White House official.

  329 final meeting took place: Peter Baker, Eric Schmitt, and David Sanger, “Obama’s speech on Afghanistan to envision exit,” New York Times, November 29, 2009.

  329 appears to have made his decision the day before: author interview with White House official.

  329 the greatest threat: BBC/ABC poll, op. cit. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/

  pdfs/05_02_09afghan_poll_2009.pdf.

  330 going in the right direction: BBC/ABC poll, op. cit.

  330 paid by the Pakistanis: senior Obama national security official, interview by author, Washington, D.C., January 2010.

  330 In February 2009: Zahid Hussain and Matthew Rosenberg, “Peace deal wavers in Swat Valley,” Wall Street Journal, April 10, 2009, http://online.wsj.com/article/

  SB123929350855705481.html; “ski lift operator”: Mukhtar Khan, “The Return of Shari’a Law to Pakistan’s Swat Region,” Jamestown Foundation, Terrorism Monitor, March 3, 2009.

  330 just sixty miles: “Buner falls into the hands of the Swat Taliban,” Dawn, April 22, 2009. http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-

  content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/nwfp/buner-falls-

  to-swat-taliban—bi.

  330 had grown exponentially: Pak Institute for Peace Studies, Security Report, 2009.

  331 strike in three different places: Jane Perlez and Pir Zubair Shah, “Day of suicide attacks displays strength of Pakistani Taliban,” New York Times, April 5, 2009. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/06/world/asia/

  06pstan.html.

  331 twenty-hour Taliban attack: “10 dead in attack on Pakistani military HQ,” CBS/AP, October 10, 2009, http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/

  2009/10/10/world

  /main5375901.shtml.

  331 “foreign area”: Ilaqa ghair is often used in Urdu to refer to the FATA, meaning generally “no-go area.” I. A. Rehman, “FATA priorities,” Dawn, June 25, 2009.

  331 more than a million: Declan Walsh, “Pakistan claims 700 Taliban killed in Swat valley strikes,” The Guardian, May 11, 2009, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/11/

  pakistan-swat-taliban-army-refugees.

  331 at least thirty thousand troops: Karin Bruillard, “Pakistan launches full-scale offensive,” Washington Post, October 18, 2009, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/

  article/2009/10/17/AR2009101700673.html.

  331 previous military operations: For an account of those operations see Sameer Lalwani, “The Pakistani military’s adaptation to counterinsurgency in 2009,” CTC Sentinel, January 2010, and for Pakistani public support of these operations see “Military action in Waziristan: opinion poll,” Gilani Poll/Gallup Pakistan, November 3, 2009. www.gallup.com.pk/Polls/03-11-09.pdf.

  331 fifty-one American drone strikes in Pakistan in 2009 alone: Bergen and Tiedemann 2010 op. cit.; receiving a leg massage: Agence France Presse, “Mehsud killed while getting leg massage,” August 10, 2009; Jane Mayer, “The Predator war,” New Yorker, October 26, 2009, http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/

  2009/10/26/091026fa_fact_mayer.

  332 lead headline: “Good riddance, killer Baitullah,” Dawn, August 8, 2009.

  332 record eighty-seven suicide attacks: Pak Institute for Peace Studies 2009 Security Report.

  332 nearly 6,000 Afghan civilians: United States Assistance Mission to Afghanistan, Annual Report on the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict, 2009. http://www.foreignpolicy.

  com/images/100113_Protection_20of_

  20Civilian_202009_20report_20English.pdf

  332 Around 100 to 150: Lolita C. Baldor, “Terror Training Camps Smaller, Harder to Target,” Associated Press, November 9, 2009. http://abcnews.go.com/

  print?id=9031020.

  332 held by the Haqqani Taliban network: “David Rohde, Times Reporter, Escapes Taliban After 7 Months,” New York Times, June 20, 2009. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/21/

  world/asia/21taliban.html

  332 “terrifying presence”: David Rohde, “Held by the Taliban, Part Four—A Drone Strike and Dwindling Hope,” New York Times, October 20, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/21/world/

  asia/21

  hostage.html?pagewanted=print; Jason Burke, “On the front line in war on Pakistan’s Taliban,” The Guardian, November 16, 2008. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/16/

  pakistan-afghanistantaliban.

  332 suspected “spies”: “Taliban kill seven ‘U.S. spies’ in North Waziristan,” Dawn, January 24, 2010.,” http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/

  dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/

  04-taliban-kill-six-nwaziristan-qs-06; “Taliban kill two U.S. ‘spies’ in Miranshah,” Daily Times, January 31, 2010. http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/

  default.asp?page=2010131

  story_31-1-2010_pg1_3.

  333 A December 2009: Michael Flynn briefing, described in Bergen, “U.S. intelligence briefing,” 2010.

  333 “That was probably”: Barack Obama, interview by Steve Kroft, 60 Minutes, December 7, 2009, http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/

  2009/12/13/60minutes/main 5975421.shtml.

  333 “I make this decision”: Barack Obama, “Remarks by the President in Address to the Nation on the Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan,” West Point, NY, December 1, 2009, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/

  remarks-president-address-nation-way-forward-

  afghanistan-and-pakistan.

  333 And at the time: Author briefing White House officials, December 1, 2009.

  Chapter 20

  335 “So my Lord”: Osama bin Laden, “Exposing the new crusader war,” February 2003.

  335 “I have an excellent idea”: Timothy J. Burger, “10 questions for Porter Goss,” Time, June 27, 2005. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/

  article/0.9171.1074112.00.html.

  335 “a person who’s now been marginalized”: George W. Bush, March 13, 2002, Washington, D.C. http://georgewbush-whitehouse

  .archives.gov/news/releases/

  2002/03/20020313-8.html. “CIA even closed Alec Station”: Mark Mazzetti, “CIA closes unit focused on capture of bin Laden,” New York Times, July 4, 2006. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/04/

  washington/04intel.html. Since 9/11 bin Laden has issued: The tapes have not only: IntelCenter, a U.S. government contractor that tracks jihadist publications, says bin Laden released 33 tapes in the eight years between 9/11 and January 2010. IntelCenter Breakout of as-Sahab audio/video, 2002–26 February 2010. Email from Ben Venzke, February 26, 2010.

  336 The tapes have not only: “Istanbul rocked by double bombing,” BBC News, November 20, 2003, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3222608.stm; Craig Whitlock and Susan Glasser, “On tape, bin Laden tries new approach,” Washington Post, December 17, 2004. http://www.washingtonpost.com/

  wp-dyn/articles/A3927-2004Dec16.html; Abqaia facility: Joel Roberts, “Al Qaeda threatens more oil attacks,” CBS News, February 25, 2006, http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/02/27/world/

  main1346541_page2.shtml; “Bin Laden tape encourages Pakistanis to rebel,” Associated Press, September 20, 2007, http://www.usatoday.com/news/world

  /2007-09-20-al Qaeda-video_N.htm.

  336 a private study: Author discussions with Saudi officials, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, February 26, 2008.

  337 “heroes”: London bo
mber: text in full, BBC News, September 1, 2005. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/4206800.stm.

  337 “Now the time has come”: Cahal Milmo, “‘You will be destroyed’: bombers of Heathrow plot,” The Independent, September 9, 2008. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/

  crime/you-will-be-destroyed-bombers-convicted-of-

  heathrow-plot-923467.html.

  337 “Leave our lands”: “Bomber’s message of hate,” The Plymouth Herald (U.K.), November 21, 2008. http://www.thisisplymouth.co.uk/

  news/Bomber-s-sentence-adjourned/article-492697

  -detail/article.html.

  337 “There is very limited”: Author interview with U.S. counterterrorism official, Washington, D.C., 2006.

  337 thousands of matchboxes: interview Norine MacDonald, Kabul, Afghanistan, April 10, 2007, and Senlis Council, “The Return of the Taliban,” Spring/summer 2006. http://www.icosgroup.net/documents/

  Afghanistan_5_Years_Later.pdf.

  338 Ninety-eight percent: According to the World Bank, in 2007 Afghanistan had 500,000 Internet users and a population of 26.2 million. World Bank: World Development Indicators Online.

  338 Annapolis: “New Usama bin Laden tape slams Palestinian negotiations, urges holy war for liberation,” Associated Press, March 20, 2008. http://www.foxnews.com/story/

  0,2933,340016.00.html; recent Israeli invasion of Gaza: “Bin Laden ‘tape’ calls Israel offensive in Gaza a holocaust,” The Guardian, March 14, 2009. http://www.guardian.co.uk/

  world/2009/mar/14/osama-bin

  -laden-gaza-israel.

  338 “sent by the heroes,” Osama bin Laden, “From usama to Obama,” January 24, 2010, translated by NEFA Foundation.

  338 Musharraf said: “Pakistan’s Musharraf: Bin Laden probably dead,” CNN, January 18, 2002. http://edition.cnn.com/2002/

  WORLD/asiapcf/south/01/18/gen.

  musharraf.binladen/.

  338 painful kidney stones: Laden, Laden, Sasson, op. cit., p. 172.

  338 coordinated by Ali Mohamed: United States of America v. Ali Mohamed, United States Southern District, New York. S(7) 98 Cr. 1023 (LBS), October 24, 2000.

  339 only fifteen: Lawrence Wright, The man behind bin Laden,” New Yorker, September 16, 2002.

  339 In 1997: Author observations, near Jalalabad, Afghanistan, March 1997.

  339 Arthur Keller: Author interview with Art Keller, Albuquerque, New Mexico, February 13, 2007; Admiral William J. Fallon: Author interview with William J. Fallon, Florence, Italy, May 23, 2008.

  340 Pew poll: “A Year After Iraq War,” The Pew Global Attitudes Project, March 16, 2004. http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/206.pdf.

  340 His son Omar recalled: Growing Up Bin Laden op. cit., p. 99.

  340 “Bin Laden pushed: Growing Up Bin Laden op. cit., p. 115, and Khaled al-Fauwaz, interview by author, London, April 1, 1997.

  340 “He wanted his followers”: Khalid al-Hammadi, “Bin Laden’s former bodyguard interviewed,” Al-Quds al-Arabi, March 20–April 4, 2005.

  340 dinner consisted of: Abdel Bari Atwan, interview by author, London, UK, June 2005.

  340 to drink cold water: Zaynab Khadr, interview by Terrence McKenna, Islamabad, Pakistan. “Al Qaeda Family,” CBC, “Maha Elsammah and Zaynab Khadr,” February 22, 2004.

  341 “You should learn”: Noman Benotman, interview by author, London, UK, August 30, 2005.

  341 “hermit on the hilltop”: Author interview with Cofer Black, Washington, D.C., February 6, 2003.

  341 “It was November 2002”: Ahmed Zaidan, interview by author, Islamabad, Pakistan, March 2005.

  341 On the audiotape: “Bin Laden’s message,” Al Jazeera, November 12, 2002, translated by BBC Monitoring, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_

  east/2455845.stm.

  341 Rice called: Joanna McGeary, “Why can’t we find bin Laden?” Time, November 17, 2002. http://www.time.com/time/covers/

  1101021125/story.html.

  342 varied the media outlets: author interview with Ahmed Zaidan, Islamabad, Pakistan, July 2004; more than 100: IntelCenter breakout of Al-Sahab audio/video, 2002-September 1, 2009; around $50 billion: Reuters, “U.S. says 2008 intelligence budget was $47.5 billion,” October 28, 2008. http://www.reuters.com/article/idus TRE49R8DO20081028.

  342 Pentagon officials were not surprised: CNN correspondent Barbara Starr discussed the bin Laden tape on CNN’s Wolf Blitzer Reports, October 29, 2004.

  342 “why did we not attack Sweden?”: Osama bin Laden, “Message to the American people,” quoted in Gilles Kepel, Al Qaeda in its Own Words (Boston: Belknap Press, 2008), p. 71.

  342 Kerry later said: “Exclusive: Kerry says UBL tape cost him election,” FOX News, November 21, 2004. http://www.foxnews.com/story/02933,139060,00.html.

  342 “profound impact”: John Kerry interview by author, Washington, D.C., December 7, 2010.

  342 It was clear: Agence France Press, May 31, 2005; Agence France Press, March 15, 2003; Sunday Times (London), September 29, 2002; National Public Radio Morning Edition, April 2, 2002; curtains: Linda Frum, “Peter Bergen Talks to Linda Frum,” Maclean’s, January 30, 2006. Author observations of multiple videos by Zawahiri.

  343 read a story about a goat: Al Jazeera, “Full transcript of bin Laden’s speech,” October 29, 2004. http://english.aljazeera.net/archive/

  2004/11/200849163336457223.html; BBC, “Text: Bin Laden Tape,” January 19, 2006. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east

  /4628932.stm; arcane debate: BBC, “Bin Laden Tape: Text,” February 12, 2003. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2751019.stm; ban Muslim headscarves: “Bin Laden deputy slams scarf ban.” CNN.com, February 24, 2004. http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/

  02/24/qaeda.headscarves/. favorably mentioned the work of Chomsky: SITE Group translation, September 11, 2007. http://counterterrorismblog.org/site-resources/

  images/SITE-OBL-transcript.pdf.

  343 Chitral: Author interview with U.S. military intelligence official, July 2006.

  343 cash rewards: PBS Online Newshour, “Facing justice,” June 18, 1997. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/

  law/june97/cia_6-18.html; “$25 million”: AP, Profile: Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, March 1, 2003, http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,79989,00.html; played a role: Tenet op. cit., p. 253.

  344 explained what methods had worked: Author interview, Brad Garrett, Washington, D.C., 2004. Some of this section draws on the Afterword of The Osama bin Laden I Know (Bergen, 2006) and “The Long Hunt for Osama,” Atlantic, Peter Bergen, October 2004.

  344 looking for “anomalies”: Robert Grenier, Testimony before the House of Representatives Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, April 9, 2008. http://intelligence.house.gov/Media/

  PDFS/Grenier040908b.pdf.

  344 thoroughbred horses: Khaled Batarfi, interviews by author, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, September 5 and 9, 2005.

  344 seventy kilometers a day: Al Jazeera interview, “Osama bin Laden,” 1998 (undated).

  344 five wives and some twenty kids: Growing Up Bin Laden op. cit., Appendix A and Bergen 2006, Appendix C: “Osama bin Laden’s immediate family.”

  344 Zawahiri have done: Ismail Khan, “Zawahiri was not here,” Dawn, January 15, 2006. http://www.dawn.com/2006/01/15/top3.htm. “some of his own”: Anne Stenersen, “Al-Qaeda’s Allies: Explaining the Relationship between al-Qaeda and Various Factions of the Taliban after 2001,” New America Foundation, April 19, 2010. http://counterterrorism.newamerica.

  net/publications/policy/al_qaeda_s_allies.

  345 lack of HUMINT: author interview, Pat Lang, Washington, D.C., 2004.

  345 It’s possible: Kevin Fedarko et al., “Escobar’s dead end,” Time, December 13, 1993. http://www.time.com/time/printout/

  0,8816,979803,00.html. “has quit any kind of device”: Author interview with U.S. intelligence officials, June 6, 2003.

  345 “We have hit couriers”: Senior U.S. military official, interview by author, July 2006.

  345 Zawahiri: Carlotta
Gall et al., “Airstrike by U.S. draws protests from Pakistanis,” New York Times, January 15, 2006; “more operational and is moving more”: author interview with U.S. military official, July 2006: “death of five militants”: Carlotta Gall and Douglas Jehl, “U.S. raid killed Qaeda leaders, officials say,” New York Times, January 19, 2006; “thumbing his nose”: Hassan Fattah, “Qaeda deputy taunts Bush for ‘failure’ in airstrike,” New York Times, January 31, 2006.

  345 expand its attacks: There were six drone strikes reported in Pakistan between January and June 2008, and 28 between July and December, according to the New America Foundation’s drones database, www.newamerica.net/drones; “45 minutes”: Jay Solomon, Siobhan Gorman, Matthew Rosenberg, “U.S. plans new drone attacks in Pakistan,” Wall Street Journal, March 26, 2010. http://online.wsj.com/

  article/SB123803414843244161.html; author interview with former Bush administration official, February 2009, Washington, D.C.

  346 fivefold increase: Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann, “Obama’s War,” Washington Post, February 15, 2009.

  346 killed dozens: Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann, “Revenge of the Drones,” New America Foundation, October 19, 2009. http://counterterrorism.newamerica.net/

  publications/policy/revenge_of_the_drones; Amir Mir, “60 drone hits kill 14 al-Qaeda men, 687 civilians,” The News, April 10, 2009; http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_

  story_detail.asp?Id=21440.

  346 Other militants: Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann, “The Drone War,” The New Republic, June 3, 2009.

  346 “We’ve got a few days”: Dick Cheney, Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer, January 9, 2009. http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/

  news/releases/2009/01/20090111.html; “brought to justice”: George W. Bush, Larry King Live, January 15, 2009, http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/01/

  14/1kl.bush/index.html.

  346 “keep al-Qaeda guessing”: Michael Hayden, Remarks at the Atlantic Council, Washington, D.C., November 13, 2008.

  347 number of “spies”: author interview with former Bush administration official, Washington, D.C., February, 2009.

  347 dropped by half in 2008: IntelCenter Breakout of as Sahab audio/video, 2002–26 February 2010. Email from Ben Venzke to author, February 26, 2010.