The Rotation

by Jim Salisbury

  The Phillies are the eighth team to have three top-five finishers in their league’s Cy Young voting. The others include the 1970 Orioles (Dave McNally, Mike Cuellar, and Palmer), 1974 Dodgers (Mike Marshall, Andy Messersmith, and Don Sutton), 1985 Royals (Bret Saberhagen, Dan Quisenberry, and Charlie Liebrandt), 1990 A’s (Bob Welch, Dave Stewart, and Dennis Eckersley), 1998 Braves (Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, and John Smoltz), 1999 Astros (Mike Hampton, Jose Lima, and Billy Wagner) and 2005 Astros (Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt, and Andy Pettitte).

  Of course, it is tricky to compare rotations across eras because baseball has changed so much. Old Hoss Radbourn won 59 games for the 1884 Providence Grays, while making 64 percent (73 of 114) of his team’s starts. But just because he won 59 games in one season doesn’t mean he’s a better pitcher than Halladay, who won a career-high 22 games in 2003.

  “You’re looking at differences in the way the games were pitched,” said Freddy Berowski, a librarian at the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York. “You’re looking at differences from underhand to overhand.You’re looking at differences in the distance between the mound and home plate.You’re looking at how pitchers were allowed to move around the box and maybe in some years get running starts.

  “There were so many different variables. It wasn’t just a pitcher like you see today, where they stand on the rubber, take their windups, and throw.”

  The distance from the mound to home plate changed in the 1800s. It was 45 feet in the 1870s before moving to 50 feet in 1881. In 1893, it moved to 60 feet, 6 inches, where it remains today. Baseball had a rule as late as 1878 that pitchers had to release the ball below their waists, meaning they delivered the ball underhand. In 1884, the rules changed to allow pitchers to throw however they wanted to, allowing them to legally throw overhand for the first time.

  In essence, from 1884 to 1892, pitchers were allowed to throw overhand from 50 feet.

  Pitching continued to evolve over the years, often with transformations that benefited hitters.

  Frank Selee, who managed the Boston Beaneaters in the late 1800s, is known as one of the first managers to employ a four-man rotation, using Kid Nichols, Ted Lewis,Vic Willis, and Fred Klobedanz in 1898. Baseball outlawed the spitball in 1920. In 1969, the pitcher’s mound was lowered from 15 inches to 10 inches and the strike zone changed, moving from the top of the shoulder to the bottom of the kneecap, to the armpit to the top of the kneecap. In reality, today the strike zone is smaller than that.

  Rotations started to shift from four-man rotations to five-man rotations in the 1970s, when teams began to become more protective of their pitchers’ arms. Increased use of the bullpen also meant fewer decisions for starters, and the use of one-inning closers in the 1980s meant fewer complete-game opportunities for pitchers. Ballparks also got smaller and bats and balls got harder, making life even more favorable for hitters.

  “It’s much harder to win twenty games than it was forty years ago, no doubt about that,” Berowski said. “If you look at the peripheral numbers—the ERA, WHIP, strikeouts—the numbers are there for the Phillies. Even complete games for Halladay and Lee in an era when pitchers don’t throw that many complete games.”

  There were 173 complete games in the majors in 2011. Halladay and Lee threw 14 (8.1 percent) of them. The San Diego Padres, Milwaukee Brewers, Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros, Cleveland Indians, Boston Red Sox, and Washington Nationals combined for just 12.

  There is no arguing the Phillies rank alongside the great Atlanta Braves rotations of the 1990s and other great rotations like the 1971 Orioles, 1966 Los Angeles Dodgers, and 1954 Indians.

  Modern metrics like WAR, ERA+ and FIP- show as much.

  WAR (Wins Above Replacement) judges how valuable a player is to his team. For example, Halladay had an 8.2 WAR in 2011, according to FanGraphs, meaning he gives the Phillies an additional 8.2 wins compared to a replacement player.

  FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) research takes into account how pitchers have little control over balls put in play. Take two nearly identical pitchers. One pitches for the best defensive team in baseball, while the other pitches for the worst. The pitcher with the best defense should have a better ERA than the one with the worst defense, even though they have the same skills. FIP removes the randomness of balls in play and looks at things pitchers can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs. FIP accounts for the differences in value of home runs, walks, and strikeouts, and comes up with a number that is better at predicting a pitcher’s future success than ERA.

  In 2011, Halladay had a 2.20 FIP, the best in baseball.

  FIP- simply takes a pitcher’s FIP and shows how that pitcher compared to the league average. Halladay had a 56 FIP- in 2011, meaning he performed 44 percent better than the league average.

  The 2011 Phillies rotation had a combined 25.8 WAR, which is the second best in baseball since 1974, according to FanGraphs. Only the 1997 Braves (26.4) were better.

  The Phillies had a 77 FIP-, which is the best in baseball in the World Series era (1903–present). They also had a 126 ERA+, which tied for ninth in that span. Since 1939, they ranked tied for third with the 1944 Cardinals, behind only the 1997 Braves (127) and 1998 Braves (127).

  “It would seem obvious this was probably the best rotation since the Braves of the mid-1990s,” said Bill James, baseball historian and godfather of sabermetrics. “There are comparisons with Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine. And that fourth starter with the Braves was pretty good, too. That Braves rotation is the greatest starting rotation of all time. But I don’t have any doubt the Phillies are an all-time great rotation. I don’t have any doubt about that.”

  Costas agreed.

  “The mere fact that the Phillies bear comparison—and this is not a comprehensive list—to the ’54 Indians, the great Orioles staffs of the late ’60s and early ’70s, to the Atlanta staffs of the ’90s, right there that makes them among the all-time best,” he said. “There’s statistically good and then there’s a good-chance-of-winning-the-game good. These guys were both of those things.”

  The Rotation could really cement its legacy with a World Series championship parade down Broad Street.

  “[Sandy] Koufax and [Don] Drysdale are locked in people’s minds because the Dodgers won the World Series in ’59, ’63 and ’65 and went to the World Series in ’66,” Costas said. “No knock on Claude Osteen or Johnny Podres, who were very good pitchers, but that Number Three isn’t as good as Cole Hamels. But it’s still more locked in people’s minds because it’s that ultimate idea of walking off with the title. Or unless you just go there so often like the Braves did, even though they only won it once, they were on the big stage so often as a group, whereas this group has only been together a short period of time.”

  That is where James issued a caution.

  “All-time great pitching rotations don’t have a great record in postseason play,” he said.

  James recalled the 1954 Indians, who boasted Hall of Fame pitchers Early Wynn, Bob Lemon, and Bob Feller, and All-Star Mike Garcia. The Indians finished the regular season 111-43 for the best winning percentage (.721) in American League history, but the New York Giants swept them in the World Series.

  The 1971 Orioles finished 101-57 for the best record in baseball, but lost in seven games to the Pittsburgh Pirates in the World Series. The 1966 Dodgers finished 95-67, but the Orioles swept them in the World Series. The Braves won 14 consecutive division championships from 1991 to 2005, but made the World Series just four times and won just one of them.

  “I don’t think there’s something about great pitching staffs that makes them doomed in the postseason,” James said. “But I also don’t think having a great pitching staff means you’re going to roll through the postseason. Sometimes people convince themselves that this team can’t be beaten in the postseason because the pitching is good. History has shown that’s not the way it works.You’ve still got to have some good things happen.”


  Would good things happen to The Rotation in October?

  Would it find postseason success?

  That’s what it was looking for from Day One of spring training, back when Cliff Lee admitted that, sure, The Rotation had a chance to make history, but a World Series title was what it was really thirsting for.

  OCTOBER

  The late-night flight home from Atlanta was a happy one. The Phillies had set a club record with their 102nd win and lifted a toast to Charlie Manuel for becoming the team’s all-time leader in managerial wins. The skipper rewarded his players with a well-deserved day off.

  Their long regular-season journey had produced the most wins in the majors and now it was time to start the validation process, a month-long quest for the 11 postseason wins that would make them World Series champions. Anything short of that would be a disappointment that made those 102 wins a conversation piece, and not much more.

  The Phillies entered the eight-team postseason tournament as favorites to win it all, but in the days leading up to the playoffs, more than a few folks had pointed out that being the favorite doesn’t guarantee a parade.

  “They’re the best team around,” Washington Manager Davey Johnson said as his club was beating the Phils four straight times during the final week of the season. “Their pitching is dominant. But in a short series, anything can happen.”

  Slowed by injury, the Phils’ offense sputtered in the final weeks of the regular season. Johnson’s Nationals held the Phils to just nine runs in sweeping that four-game series. People around baseball were starting to notice the offensive problems and wonder if this club would be a quick out in October.

  “If Philadelphia’s bats don’t wake up, then they are not going to win,” said David Wells, the former big-league pitcher who was part of the TBS postseason broadcast team. “It’s as simple as that. I don’t care how good their pitching is.You can’t win if you don’t score.”

  The Phillies learned that—painfully—when they were knocked out of the NLCS by San Francisco a year earlier. The Phils were denied the chance to become the first NL team since the 1942–44 Cardinals to make three straight World Series, largely because they hit just .178 (8 for 45) with runners in scoring position in the NLCS.

  Would it happen again?

  Would the bats go soft and deny this team and its great pitching staff the coronation it had sought for months?

  Shane Victorino was leaving nothing to chance.

  After that day off, September 29, he showed up at Citizens Bank Park for the team’s workout the day before Game 1 of the NLDS. The day before the postseason opener feels like the first day of the season all over again, and this was no exception. Stadium workers hung red, white, and blue bunting from the second deck and painted the NLDS logo on the grass in front of each dugout. Players wore crisp, new, red sweatshirts—postseason merchandise is big business and the players are human mannequins—emblazoned with the postseason logo. As the Phillies came out of the clubhouse to stretch and begin batting practice on this cool autumn day, a representative from the famed Louisville Slugger bat company took orders from players. A trip to the World Series isn’t complete without a dozen new bats, right? But what happens if you fail to make the World Series?

  Anyone want some kindling wood for the long winter?

  “Put some extra hits in them,” Victorino shouted good-naturedly to the Louisville Slugger man.

  Oh, that it were that easy.

  So, who’s your Game 1 starter?

  Charlie Manuel heard that question several times in the days that followed the Phillies’ clinching of the NL East.

  For reporters, the question represented due diligence.

  But they knew it was a dumb question. Having Roy Halladay in your starting rotation is like having John Wayne in your movie. He would get the ball in Game 1.

  Why?

  “Everything about him,” Manuel said. “He’s the most prepared guy I’ve ever seen. He works harder than anyone I’ve ever seen. He’s more determined than anyone I’ve ever seen. He’s got four pitches, maybe five, and he commands them all. I’ve seen him load the bases with no outs and work right out of it. He’s got a tremendous feel for pitching.”

  Halladay had also earned the ball for Game 1 of the 2010 NLDS and, in the first postseason start of his life, became the first pitcher in 54 years to pitch a postseason no-hitter.

  What would he have up his red sleeve this time?

  Halladay wasn’t sure, but as he sat at the dais for a news conference the day before Game 1 of the 2011 NLDS, he echoed some familiar personal sentiments. He said he intended to enjoy the ride, the process, the journey. For as much as he wanted that World Series ring, a decade of missing the postseason in Toronto had taught him that this was a special time and it had to be embraced.

  “You really have to put things into perspective and understand what this game ultimately means,” Halladay said. “You play this game because you love it and you play it because you enjoy the competition. I think that’s what, at this point, is most important. I think if you go in with a mentality of this being the end-all and be-all, you’re putting a lot of extra things on your plate that you really don’t need.”

  Did Halladay’s philosophical view of the situation mean his competitive furnace had lost some heat?

  Hardly.

  “Believe me,” he said, looking at a pack of reporters. “We want to win bad.”

  To illustrate that, he quoted Shakespeare—even though he probably didn’t know the Bard from Josh Bard.

  “I heard a quote a long time ago, ‘I came here to bury Caesar not praise him,’ ” Halladay said.

  Now that’s the old Philadelphia spirit.

  As Halladay was speaking, the St. Louis Cardinals’ charter flight was approaching Philadelphia International Airport. It was a flight few anticipated on August 25, when the Cards were 10½ games out of the wild-card race. The trip might have seemed far-fetched even back in February, when the Cardinals suffered a devastating blow, as their ace right-hander, Adam Wainwright, grabbed his right elbow in pain and walked off the field to season-ending Tommy John surgery.

  But the Cardinals, led by veterans Chris Carpenter, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Lance Berkman, proved to be baseball’s most resilient club. Even without Wainwright, the always resolute Tony La Russa kept his personal GPS locked on the postseason and stressed that his players compete every game, every pitch, every at-bat. General Manager John Mozeliak rebuilt a leaky bullpen and fortified the infield with the acquisition of shortstop Rafael Furcal before the July 31 trade deadline.

  All of this, coupled with some help from the stumbling Atlanta Braves, put the Cardinals in position for a late surge that saw them go 23-9 down the stretch to win the NL wild card in Houston on the final day of the season.

  While oddsmakers liked the Phillies to reach the World Series, the Cardinals didn’t plan on stopping at the wild card. During their champagne celebration in Houston, catcher Yadier Molina stood up and made a proclamation to his teammates.

  “We’re happy to make it,” he told them, “but our job is not done.”

  Game 1 pitcher Kyle Lohse concurred as he related the anecdote.

  “That’s the mentality of our team,” he said. “We’re thrilled to be here, but the work is not done yet.”

  For some Phillies fans the Cardinals represented a less than desirable matchup. The Cardinals went 6-3 against the Phillies during the regular season, including 3-1 in September, and were the hot team. But the Phillies players were undaunted.

  “We’re all well aware of how good they are,” Halladay said. “We obviously have respect for what they’ve done and how they’ve played, but you have to be confident going in that you’re going to be able to beat them.You have to be confident the guys around you feel the same way. We don’t take them lightly. But at the same time, I feel like, without an arrogant tone to it, we believe we have a team that can go out and get the job done.”

  Charlie Manuel als
o believed he had a team that could get the job done. His faith could be traced to the pitcher’s mound, where Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Roy Oswalt were hungry to lift the World Series trophy, just as Cole Hamels had done in 2008.

  “I like that we have three guys this good who have never won a World Series,” Manuel said. “I think they’re really looking forward to it and really want to win. They love to pitch—and when they get beat, they’re not very happy campers. We’re here because of our pitching. I don’t think they get enough credit. Every night this season they gave us a chance to win. We had a hard time scoring runs at times, but they usually took us to a point in the game where we could win if we scored, and they pitched over mistakes when our defense was not good. They did a hell of a job for us and I’m excited.”

  Citizens Bank Park pulsated with enough electricity before Game 1 to light up the Philadelphia skyline for a month.

  This was the Phillies’ time.

  This was why they spent those seven weeks in spring training, why they won those 102 games. This was why fans sold out every game, why they made those March pilgrimages to Clearwater. It was all for the postseason, the 11 October wins that would lead to confetti flying. This was the most talented, most expensive, and most hyped team in franchise history. Anything short of those 11 wins would result in an emptiness never felt in Philadelphia sports.

  Halladay threw his first pitch to a huge, accompanying roar of the crowd. The decibel level cooled when Furcal singled on the second pitch Halladay threw. Halladay got the first out of the inning, and then walked Pujols on four pitches. Three batters into the game, the Phillies’ ace was faced with his first jam, and it turned into early damage when Berkman smacked a three-run homer into the right-field seats on the first pitch he saw.

  It was an almost surreal beginning. The Phillies had been gearing toward this moment for months and now they were behind, 3-0, just four batters into the game. The crowd was silent. Halladay looked stunned as he waited for umpire Chris Guccione to toss him a new ball.