The Domino Effect

by Davis Bunn

  That technician stood behind the main camera. He said softly, “We are live in five, four, three . . .

  Then a male voice Esther instantly recognized came through speakers set to either side of her stool. “The term trending nowadays is applied to almost anything. But every once in a while, we discover something that genuinely fits the word. With us today is a woman whose website is actually trending on a national, and perhaps even global, scale.

  “At the beginning of last week, Esther Larsen was a risk analyst with CFM, one of the nation’s top banks. Then she set up a new website designed to share her concerns about America’s economy and financial system.” The announcer, a strikingly handsome African-American male, turned to his co-hosts and said, “Maybe we should let Esther Larsen tell us herself what happened next. Welcome to Good Morning America, Esther.”

  “Thank you.”

  “You put together your website in just one night, is that correct?”

  “With the help of Keith Sterling, an excellent web designer. A very long night for both of us.”

  “But you have been working on the analysis this website contains for a much longer period.”

  “Seven years and counting.”

  The younger of the two female anchors said, “So you worked on this project of yours for seven years, identifying the so-called bad banks.”

  “Not exactly.” Esther was beginning to recognize their interview style. The study of such tactics had long been crucial to Esther’s work. They did not ask directly. They traded back and forth, which allowed them to probe while pretending the style of a casual conversation. They observed. They wanted her to react. They intended for their exchange to keep her off-balance, slightly on a defensive edge.

  Esther went on, “Most of the financial institutions that are taking dangerous risks are well known. And a number of their actions are already public. Take for example the nine banks convicted last year of manipulating the global exchange rates. This is far from being the only banking strategy that skirted the line of legality. Nineteen global banks are currently facing new charges involving—”

  The other female anchor broke in, “So why go public now?”

  “Because it’s never been just about the banks. It is about their actions weighed against the economic situation.”

  The male anchor demanded, “And how do you see the current state of our economy?”

  “That is where the problem lies,” Esther replied. “It’s no longer about our economy. We as a nation are impacted by global economic trends.”

  “Okay, so how is that situation?”

  “Fragile,” Esther said. “And some tactics by some banks are pushing us closer and closer to the brink.”

  “Let’s get back to why we’re here today,” the first woman said. “Your website. We said at the beginning of this segment that you are trending because of the public response.”

  “Seven hundred thousand visitors in four days—is that even possible?” the man seated next to her asked.

  “Apparently so,” the younger woman responded. “Not to mention over two hundred corporate sponsors, including seven Fortune Fifty companies.”

  The male anchor asked, “What makes you suddenly so popular?”

  “I can only speculate,” Esther said. “My guess is that for some time many people have suspected things are not right with our economic structure. I am both clarifying their concerns and giving voice to what worries them most.”

  The man leaned forward. “Which leads us back to the original issue. Why aren’t things right, Esther?”

  “Because the banks involved in the 2007–2008 crash were never held accountable.”

  “But the government tried. We’ve had as our guests the federal prosecutor involved in attempts to bring several major bankers to justice.”

  “A few individuals, yes. But not the banks themselves. And that has left them feeling bulletproof.”

  The three anchors shared bright smiles. “That is unfortunately all the time we have today. Esther Larsen, thank you for sharing your thoughts on Good Morning America.”

  Suzie McManning had curly red hair and coppery-green eyes and an economics degree from Yale. She anchored a regional business-news show called CBR, the Charlotte Business Report, and had a sharp, no-nonsense way of getting to the heart of the issue. McManning had irritated more than her share of glad-handing Southern business tycoons, who assumed they could smile their way through any interview done by the pretty lady. Though Esther had never met her before, she entered the second studio of the day already liking her.

  Which made Suzie McManning’s attitude very jarring. The woman refused to meet Esther’s gaze. The carpeted dais was about twenty feet long by ten feet wide. People being interviewed were usually stationed on the sofa, but today Esther was directed to a swivel chair placed to the left of Suzie’s desk. The newscaster’s first words were, “We’re also taping this segment to be aired a second time at the top of the hour.”

  Esther gave a nod and replied, “Understood. It’s nice to finally meet you. I’ve always admired your work.”

  “How kind of you to say.” Suzie glanced up at the back window and asked, “How is my gain?”

  The technician replied, “We’re good to go.”

  Esther frowned. “Is something wrong?”

  “Whatever gave you that idea?” Suzie angrily rammed her stack of papers together.

  A voice from the back called, “Live in two minutes.”

  Then Esther spotted the shadow in the studio’s far corner. She instantly recognized the man holding the cane as Talmadge Burroughs, the high-powered local business leader. Everything came together in a flash of comprehension. Esther now understood who had been behind her website’s sudden rise into the spotlight. “Just a minute.”

  Suzie snapped, “We don’t have a minute.”

  “I said wait.” Esther rose from her seat. She did not cross the studio because she wanted this to be public, heard by all. “This stops now, Mr. Burroughs. Tell me you understand or I walk.”

  A young voice said through Esther’s earpiece, “Ninety seconds.”

  Esther turned to the newscaster. “Let me guess. You just heard I’m to be offered a job by this station.”

  “There is no offer.” Suzie McManning’s Southern lilt sounded odd coming from such a truly Irish face. “The station has been ordered to make this happen.”

  “I refuse any such position.” When there was no response, Esther raised her voice. “Mr. Burroughs, tell me you accept this.”

  “Sixty seconds.”

  Esther went on, “If we have to win hearts and minds through raw tactics, we have lost even if we succeed.”

  “We are live in fifteen!”

  The man seated in the shadows waved his cane. “All right, all right.”

  Esther resumed her seat and offered the anchor as much warmth as she could muster. “Okay. Let’s go.”

  Suzie McManning was clearly disconcerted by what she had just observed. She introduced the segment and her guest, then turned to Esther and said, “Let’s talk about China.”

  The production booth was a glass-fronted balcony in the wall opposite from where they sat. Several dimly lit figures stood behind the main console, watching as Esther replied, “We might as well. Everybody else is.”

  “Why is China important?” The bright lights turned Suzie’s arms and hands the color of chalk, which made her freckles more obvious. “I don’t mean important in Washington or New York or Tokyo.”

  “You mean, why should the average listener to your show here in Charlotte be concerned about an economy eight thousand miles away.”

  The moderator nodded slowly, her expression no longer clouded by her earlier irritation. “Exactly. Help us understand that.”

  “In every global downturn since the Second World War, the United States has been the engine that brought the world’s other economies back to life. After the 2008 downturn, it was China that played the largest role.”
r />   “You’re saying America no longer matters on the global economic stage?”

  “No, not at all. The United States is the largest economy in the world. The issue is growth.”

  “China’s growth rate is larger.”

  “It was throughout the seven years it took America to return to the employment and output levels prior to 2008. During that period, China’s expansion depended on raw materials brought in from the developing world. Following the 2008 recession, those countries and China together generated seventy-five percent of the world’s per-capita economic growth.”

  Esther liked how she and Suzie were now in sync. The initial conflict was gone. Erased. Suzie did not get to where she was today, the only woman in the Southeast anchoring her own daily business report, by carrying grudges. Esther could almost anticipate the question before Suzie said, “But there are problems.”

  “Three of them. One is directly related to China. One has to do with the developing world. And one is more closely tied to our own future here in the US.”

  Suzie leaned back, signaling to the audience a dramatic pause. “It sounds like we’ll need to have you back on the show again, Esther.”

  “I’d like that.”

  “Today let’s stick with the original question.”

  “Why is China important. Right. The issue is that their growth has been fueled by debt. And the problems related to this debt are now reaching a crisis point.”

  “But hasn’t that been the case in the United States? To save the financial system in 2008, we added a trillion dollars to our national debt through TARP, the Troubled Asset Relief Program.”

  “And another five trillion through quantitative easing,” Esther added. “America’s debt issue is important to our future. But it is nothing compared to what China has done. Since 2008, China’s national debt has risen by twenty-one trillion dollars. In just eight years, they added debt totaling one hundred and thirty percent of the country’s GDP.”

  “Gross Domestic Product,” Suzie explained. “A country’s per-capita total output.”

  “Right. China’s central government now owes over three hundred percent of its GDP.”

  Suzie did not smile, but there was a glint to her copper gaze now, enough to assure Esther that she was enjoying the exchange. “But it doesn’t stop there, does it?”

  “No, China’s government has also encouraged its companies and its citizens to borrow at unprecedented levels. Private debt during this same period has nearly trebled.”

  “Here comes the kicker,” Suzie said. “I can feel it.”

  “No nation in history has reached this level of debt and avoided a major depression.”

  “Not recession,” Suzie said. “Depression.”

  “Exactly.”

  “How long does China have?”

  “They danced around the cliff edge last winter,” Esther said, “but they managed to escape going over. By adding more debt.”

  Suzie nodded. “Same question. How long do they have?”

  “Less than a year,” Esther replied. “Perhaps less than six months.”

  “How will that impact the United States?”

  “The trillion-dollar question. And it all comes down to those two other issues.”

  “Unfortunately, that’s all the time we have for today.” Suzie turned to face the camera again, but not before flashing Esther with what appeared to be a genuine smile. “Stay tuned for Market Roundup.”

  28

  After the sound engineer had freed Esther of her microphone and battery pack, she thanked both Suzie and the station director, then made her way over to Talmadge Burroughs. Esther did her best to stow away her irritation. She needed Talmadge. Esther seated herself on the base of a mobile camera, which put her a fraction lower than Talmadge’s chair. She watched his hands nervously kneading the head of his ivory-topped cane. And she waited.

  Talmadge said, “So you’re giving the station a definite no, then.”

  Esther held to her silence.

  Talmadge cleared his throat. “I only suggested the station take you on because I thought it would help.”

  “You suggested?”

  He coughed. “I might have gone a bit too far.”

  “A bit?”

  He tried for indignation but failed. “What do you want me to say?”

  “Start by telling me if you own this station.”

  “I might have a small interest in companies that have invested in local stations here and there.” He coughed again. “I’m on your side, Esther.”

  “Then act like you are, Mr. Burroughs.”

  “My friends all call me Cricket.”

  “There is no way on heaven or earth I will ever call you Cricket,” she assured him.

  “Talmadge, then.” He cocked his head. “You sure can be one ornery lady.”

  “Let me guess,” Esther said. “When I told you about setting up my new website, you contacted the president of the advertising company you have under contract.”

  “Actually, we own them.”

  “You threatened the poor man with dismissal if he didn’t drive traffic to my site.”

  “Just so happens my agency is run by a lady,” Talmadge corrected. She glared at him, and he quickly added, “I didn’t threaten anybody.”

  “You gave the poor woman a directive, which coming from the owner is as good as a threat.” She shook her head. “Shame on you.”

  He thumped his cane on the slick concrete floor. “Sometimes you got to light a fire under folks.”

  “You will stop this now,” she said. “You will grant me the right to vet any future actions before you put them into play.”

  “Do that or else, huh?”

  “Unlike some,” Esther replied, “I don’t threaten people.”

  He thumped his cane again. “Agreed.”

  “This subterfuge stops now, Talmadge.”

  “I said all right.” He stared at her. “Isn’t this when you stand up and storm outta here?”

  “I want to. Believe me.” She took a hard breath. “But the truth is I need your help with something.”

  That took a moment to sink in. Talmadge grinned at her. “I bet those words tasted vile coming out of your mouth.”

  “Awful,” she agreed.

  Twenty minutes later, Esther left the TV studio. She checked her messages while walking to her car. The only item that could not wait came from Nathan’s doctor, who asked her to come by as soon as possible. She checked in with Jasmine, then drove to the clinic. When she arrived, the doctor was with a patient, but the nurse introduced Esther to a social worker assigned to the regional mental health facility. The message was clear long before the introduction was over. Esther’s time for making a decision on Nathan’s behalf was running out.

  She phoned Craig from the parking lot as she left the clinic. She needed to talk with him more than she knew how to put into words. Even so, her request that he call her back sounded hollow to her ears. As though she were just going through the motions of what other people might call a normal life.

  The realtor was waiting in front of Nathan’s home when she arrived. Esther walked the woman through the home, accepted her selling-price estimate, and signed the documents. All the while she remained wrapped in the fog of Craig’s silence.

  Talmadge phoned her while she was driving toward downtown. “I suppose I should apologize.”

  “Well, at least on that point we are in complete agreement.”

  “I have ordered the advertising company to obtain your approval for everything they do.”

  “And there is no threat of mass firings or any other peril to their careers,” Esther said. “I want that made perfectly clear.”

  “No whip, just carrots,” Talmadge agreed.

  “Then your apology is accepted.” She did not want to let the man go, not when it meant returning to her sorrow and silent phone. “How did your people grow my audience so fast?”

  “I don’t ask details. I only set goa
ls and make sure the people I hire are the best. Which is why I went after you.”

  She decided there was no better time to ask, so she pulled into the parking lot of a convenience store, parked, and asked, “Why is this so important to you? I mean, the warning, my concerns, the whole global issue.”

  Talmadge replied, “My father was raised in a Carolina Depression home. That time meant different things to different folks. Down east it was a decade of making do. Nobody had a cent to their names. If you absolutely had to have something, you either paid for it in kind or in work. If the sellers took only hard cash, it mostly meant you and your family went without.”

  Esther had the phone linked by Bluetooth to her car’s audio system. Talmadge’s voice emerged from half a dozen speakers, softened into a buttery Southern burr. He went on, “When I was still a kid, I asked my father what it was like, growing up in them times. Daddy went all quiet, and then he told me he hadn’t owned a new pair of trousers for seven years. Hand-me-down years was how he described it. Living off the church poor box. Going to bed hungry, waking up afraid. Seeing his own father worry over losing the farm. Hearing his parents talk about putting him and his siblings in an orphanage just so they’d get a decent meal. Those were terrible times, Esther.”

  “It shaped him,” Esther said.

  “Formed us all. My whole family, we carried Daddy’s fear of poverty. We were stained by this. I’m the only one who made it out. All the rest, they went for safety. Biggest thing they ever allowed themselves to hope for was a government job and a regular paycheck.” He was quiet for a time, then continued, “This ain’t about warning. This is about helping folks avoid the nightmare.”