The Hour Between Dog and Wolf

by John Coates

  6 get us into trouble Richard Thaler (1994) Winner’s Curse. Princeton University Press. Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, Amos Tversky (1982) Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  7 adaptations to real-life problems Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., Pachur, T. (eds) (2011) Heuristics: The Foundation of Adaptive Behavior. New York: Oxford University Press.

  8 to overcome the shortcomings of first impressions For example, Keith E. Stanovich (2009) What Intelligence Tests Miss: The Psychology of Rational Thought. Yale University Press.

  9 naturalistic decision-making … decisions made out in the field by experts Recounted in Daniel Kahneman (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux. Ch. 22. They discuss issues raised by Malcolm Gladwell in Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking. London: Little, Brown, 2005.

  10 intuition is the recognition of patterns This point was originally made by Herbert Simon (1955) A behavioral model of rational choice. Quarterly Journal of Economics 69, 99–118.

  11 Chess grandmasters … clues on what to do next Ferhand, G., Simon, H. (1996) Recall of Random and Distorted Chess Positions: Implications for the Theory of Expertise. Memory and Cognition 24, 493–503.

  12 Intuition cannot be trusted in the absence of stable regularities in the environment Daniel Kahneman (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux. p.241.

  13 training and hard work can indeed improve your performance Robert Shiller (2005) Irrational Exuberance 2nd ed. Princeton University Press. Ch. 10.

  14 to build algorithms to exploit these patterns This story is told in Sebastien Mallaby (2010) More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of the New Elite. London: Bloomsbury.

  15 the gold standard among hedge funds Coates, J.M., Page, L. (2009) A Note on Trader Sharpe Ratios. PLoS One 4(11): e8036.

  16 Sharpe ratios … plotted … against the number of years I argue for this measure of performance in ‘Traders need more than machismo’, Financial Times 25 November 2009.

  17 the Hamlet Problem Evans, D. (2002) The Search Hypothesis of Emotion. British Journal of the Philosophy of Science 53, 497–509. Evans points out that the term originated with Jerry A. Fodor (1987) Modules, Frames, Fridgeons, Sleeping Dogs, and the Music of the Spheres. In Zenon W. Pylyshyn (ed.) The Robot’s Dilemma. Ablex.

  18 we rely on emotions and gut feelings The search theory of emotions originated with Ronald de Sousa (1987) The Rationality of Emotion. Boston: MIT Press. See as well Jon Elster (1999) Alchemies of the Mind: Rationality and the Emotions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  19 feeling was an integral component of the machinery of reason Antonio Damasio (1994) Descartes’ Error. New York: Putnam & Sons. p.xii.

  20 Somatic Marker Hypothesis Bechara, A., Damasio, A.R. (2005) The somatic marker hypothesis: A neural theory of economic decision. Games and Economic Behavior 52, 336–372.

  21 without the grit of somatic markers For reviews of work on emotions and economic choice see Elster, J. (1998) Emotions and economic theory. Journal of Economic Literature 36, 47–74. Loewenstein, G. (2000) Emotions in economic theory and economic behavior. American Economic Review 90, 426–432. Grossberg, S., Gutowski, W. (1987) Neural dynamics of decision making under risk: Affective balance and cognitive emotional interactions. Psychological Review 94, 300–318.

  22 carotid artery, which supplies blood to the brain See ‘Detect the Effect of Cognitive Function on Cerebral Blood Flow’ in Tom Stafford and Matt Webb (2004) Mind Hacks. Tips and Tools for Using Your Brain in the World. O’Reilly Media.

  23 as the machine in your head draws more fuel Duschek, S. et al. (2010) Interactions between systemic hemodynamics and cerebral blood flow during attentional processing. Psychophysiology 47, 1159–1166.

  24 23 per cent more glucose into their brains than they did when at rest Parks, R.W. et al. (1988) Cerebral metabolic effects of a verbal fluency test: a PET scan study. Journal of Clinical Experimental Neuropsychology 10, 565–575.

  25 this reduces our capacity for self-control Matthew T. Gailliot et al. (2007) Self-Control Relies on Glucose as a Limited Energy Source: Willpower is More than a Metaphor. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 92, 325–336. Gailliot, M., Baumeister, R. (2007) The Physiology of Willpower: Linking Blood Glucose to Self-Control. Personality and Social Psychology Review 11, 303–327.

  26 climax by repeated outbreaks of expression James, W. (1884) What is an emotion? Mind 9, 188–205. ‘Emotion Follows upon the Bodily Expression in the Coarser Emotions’, in The Principles of Psychology. New York: Dover (1890).

  27 the feeling of an emotion is in some ways the least important part of the experience And to Oscar Lange, a Swede who simultaneously hit upon the same theory of emotion, the theory henceforth being called the James-Lange theory of emotions.

  28 icing on the cake Joe LeDoux (1996) The Emotional Brain: The Mysterious Underpinnings of Emotional Life. New York: Touchstone.

  29 but we could not actually feel afraid or angry James, W. (1884) What is an emotion? Mind 9, 188–205.

  30 being hot under the collar or flushed with excitement, and so on The philosopher George Lakoff discusses body metaphors in emotional language, and more generally the embodied mind. See for example Women, Fire, and Dangerous Things: What Categories Reveal About the Mind. Chicago: University of Chicago Press (1987).

  31 Harvard physiologist Walter Cannon Walter Cannon (1915) Bodily Changes in Pain, Hunger, Fear and Rage: An Account of Recent Researches into the Function of Emotional Excitement. New York: D. Appleton & Co.

  32 vomited the half-digested contents of his stomach Bodily Changes in Pain, Hunger, Fear and Rage, p.278. Cannon was here quoting Charles Darwin.

  33 slow-motion film of patients undergoing psychotherapy Condon, W.S., Ogston, W.D. (1966) Sound film analysis of normal and pathological behavior patterns. Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease 143, 338–347. Condon and Ogston also observed what they called microrhythms: ‘The body of the speaker dances in time with his speech. Further the body of the listener dances in rhythm with that of the speaker!’ See also Haggard, E.A., Isaacs, K.S. (1966) Micro-momentary facial expressions as indicators of ego mechanisms in psychotherapy. In L.A. Gottschalk & A.H. Auerbach (eds) Methods of Research in Psychotherapy. New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts.

  34 all without any awareness it has taken place Li, W., Zinbarg, R.E., Boehm, S.G., Paller, K.A. (2008) Neural and behavioral evidence for affective priming from unconsciously perceived emotional facial expressions and the influence of trait anxiety. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience 20, 95–107.

  35 the purpose of facial expressions is not so much to express feelings, as to generate them See for example Hess, U., Kappas, A., McHugo, G., Lanzetta, J., Kleck, R. (1992) The facilitative effect of facial expression on the self-generation of emotion. International Journal of Psychophysiology 12, 251–265. Some of the original works on emotions and the face were Tomkins, S. (1962) Affect, Imagery, Consciousness: The Positive Affects. New York: Springer. Gellhorn, E. (1964) Motion and emotion: The role of proprioception in the physiology and pathology of the emotions. Psychological Review 71, 457–472. Izard, C. (1971) The Face of Emotion. New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts.

  36 may be dampening their emotional and indeed their cognitive reactions See for example Hennenlotter, A. et al. (2009) The link between facial feedback and neural activity within central circuitries of emotion – new insights from botulinum toxin-induced denervation of frown muscles. Cerebral Cortex 19, 537–542. As well as Havas, D.A. et al. (2010) Cosmetic use of botulinum toxin-a affects processing of emotional language. Psychological Science 21, 895–900.

  37 feel the mood portrayed on their faces Levenson, R.W., Ekman, P., Friesen, W.V. (1990) Voluntary facial action generates emotion-specific autonomic nervous system activity. Psychophysiology 27, 363–384.

  38 her state of arousal to the brain Craig, A.D. (2002) How do you feel? Interoception: the sense of t
he physiological condition of the body. Nature Reviews Neuroscience 3, 655–666.

  39 do gut feelings really come from the gut? Mayer, E. (2011) Gut feelings: The emerging biology of gut–brain communication. Nature Reviews Neoroscience 12, 453–466.

  40 100 million neurons The gut contains 500 million neurons, the small intestine 100 million. Michael Gershon, personal correspondence.

  41 the Second Brain Gershon, M.D. (1998) The Second Brain. New York: HarperCollins.

  42 a tunnel that permits the exterior to run right through us The Second Brain, p.84.

  43 an independent nervous system The enteric nervous system was first discovered by William Bayliss and Ernest Starling, two British physiologists working towards the end of the nineteenth century. This story is recounted in Gershon’s book, The Second Brain.

  44 more easily aroused by emotional stimuli Vianna, E., Weinstock, J., Elliott, D., Summers, R., Tranel, D. (2006) Increased feelings with increased body signals. Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience 1, 37–48.

  45 to remember where you found it See for example Flood, J., Smith, G., Morley, J. (1987) Modulation of memory processing by cholecystokinin: dependence on the vagus nerve. Science 236, 832–834.

  46 our body’s graded response to a challenge Reviews of the time course of an unfolding stress response can be found in Eriksen, H.R., Olff, M., Murison, R., Ursin, H. (1999) The time dimension in stress responses: relevance for survival and health. Psychiatry Research 85, 39–50. Robert Sapolsky has also looked at the time course of stress hormones in Chapter 5 of his book Why Zebras Don’t Get Ulcers. See as well Sapolsky, R., Romero, M., Munck, A. (2000) How do Glucocorticoids Influence Stress Responses? Integrating Permissive, Suppressive, Stimulatory, and Preparative Actions. Endocrine Reviews 21, 55–89.

  47 pattern of nervous and hormonal activation Ekman, P., Levenson, R., Friesen, W. (1983) Autonomic Nervous System Activity Distinguishes Among Emotions. Science 221, 1208–1210. Levenson, R. (1992) Autonomic Nervous System Differences Among Emotions. Psychological Science 3, 23–27.

  48 facial expression and so on to each situation Rainville, P., Bechara, A., Naqvi, N., Damasio, A. (2006) Basic emotions are associated with distinct patterns of cardiorespiratory activity. International Journal of Psychophysiology 61, 5–18.

  49 Iowa Gambling Task Bechara, A., Damasio, A.R., Damasio, H., Anderson, S.W. (1994) Insensitivity to future consequences following damage to human prefrontal cortex. Cognition 50, 7–15. Antoine Bechara, Hanna Damasio, Daniel Tranel, Antonio Damasio (1997) Deciding Advantageously Before Knowing the Advantageous Strategy. Science 275, 1293–1295.

  50 the result of momentary changes in the amount of sweat lying in its crevices Andrew Lo and Dmitry Repin have looked at this measure along with heart rate and respiration in traders. Lo, A., Repin, D. (2002) The Psychophysiology of Real-Time Financial Risk Processing. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience 14, 323–339.

  51 the two sides of the brain unable to communicate with each other Recounted in Joe LeDoux (1996) The Emotional Brain. The Mysterious Underpinnings of Emotional Life. New York: Touchstone. pp.32–33.

  52 Strangers to Ourselves Timothy Wilson (2002) Strangers to Ourselves: Discovering the Adaptive Unconscious. Boston: Harvard University Press.

  53 a coherent story, a self concept Joe LeDoux (1996) The Emotional Brain: The Mysterious Underpinnings of Emotional Life. New York: Touchstone. p.33.

  54 and to uncertainty and volatility in the market Coates, J., Herbert, J. (2008) Endogenous steroids and financial risk-taking on a London trading floor Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, 6167–6172.

  55 professions are coming to use coaches An interesting account of a surgeon who started using a coach – a former professor of his – can be found in Atul Gawande, ‘Personal Best. Should Everyone Have a Coach?’ New Yorker 3 October 2011.

  56 test called heartbeat awareness Ehlers, A., Breuer, P. (1992) Increased cardiac awareness in panic disorder. Journal of Abnormal Psychology 101, 371–382. Dunn, B. et al. (2010) Listening to Your Heart: How Interoception Shapes Emotion Experience and Intuitive Decision Making. Psychological Science 20, 1–10.

  57 Experiments with heartbeat awareness O’Brien, W.H., Reid, G.J., Jones, K.R. (1998) Differences in heartbeat awareness among males with higher and lower levels of systolic blood pressure. International Journal of Psychophysiology 29, 53–63. Critchley, H., Wiens, S., Rotshtein, P., Öhman, A., Dolan, R. (2004) Neural systems supporting interoceptive awareness. Nature Neuroscience 7, 189–195. Werner, N.S., Jung, K., Duschek, S., Schandry, R. (2009) Enhanced cardiac perception is associated with benefits in decision-making. Psychophysiology 46, 1–7. Crone, E. et al (2004) Heart rate and skin conductance analysis of antecedents and consequences of decision making. Psychophysiology 41, 531–540.

  58 heartbeat awareness is lower in people who are overweight Cameron, O. (2001) Interoception: the inside story – a model for psychosomatic processes. Psychosomatic Medicine 63, 697–710.

  59 physiological monitoring … on hormones in traders ‘Financial endocrinology. Bulls at Work. To avoid bad days, financial traders should watch their testosterone levels’. The Economist 17 April 2008.

  CHAPTER 5: THE THRILL OF THE SEARCH

  1 cancels out the sensation it expects to result These simulations of impending movement are called forward models. At the moment their existence is a matter of hypothesis. Miall, R., Weir, D., Wolpert, D., Stein, J. (1993) Is the cerebellum a Smith Predictor? Journal of Motor Behavior 25, 203–216.

  2 so the tickling has no effect Sarah-Jayne Blakemore and Chris Frith at University College London together with Daniel Wolpert devised a tickling machine to test this hypothesis. The machine consists of a lever, which you control with one hand, which moves a soft pad that tickles your other hand. When you first use the machine you have complete control over the soft pad, its movements being therefore predictable, so it produces no tickling sensation. But as time passes the linkage between lever and pad becomes looser and looser until you have no control at all and the pad moves in a manner uncorrelated with your intentions. At that point the machine tickles. Blakemore, S., Wolpert, D., Frith, C. (2000) Why can’t you tickle yourself? NeuroReport 11, 11–16.

  3 the moth effect See for example Brown, I. (1991) Highway Hypnosis: Implications for Road Traffic Researchers and Practitioners. In Gale, A.G. (ed.) Vision in Vehicles III. North Holland: Elsevier. Charles, M., Crank, J., Falcone, D. (1990) A Search for Evidence of the Fascination Phenomenon in Road Side Accidents. Washington DC: AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety.

  4 notice the slightest movement Hermans, E.J. et al. (2011) Stress-related noradrenergic activity prompts large-scale neural network reconfiguration. Science 334, 1151–1153. Yu, A., Dayan, P. (2205) Uncertainty, neuromodulation, and attention. Neuron 46, 681–691.

  5 Cocktail Party Effect … on the other side of a crowded room Kathleen S. Lynch, Gregory F. Ball (2008) Noradrenergic Deficits Alter Processing of Communication Signals in Female Songbirds. Brain Behavior Evolution 72, 207–214.

  6 The body with one bound is in full readiness Erich Maria Remarque (1928) All Quiet on the Western Front, trans. A.W. Wheen. New York: Fawcett Columbine. p.54.

  7 found an elegant shape Berlyne, D.E. (1960) Conflict, Arousal and Curiosity. New York: McGraw-Hill. This inverted U-shaped curve was in fact first conceived in Yerkes, R.M., Dodson, J.D. (1908) The relation of strength of stimulus to rapidity of habit-formation. Journal of Comparative Neurology and Psychology 18, 459–482. Berlyne was the first to link the Yerkes-Dodson law, as it is called, to information theory. For a recent synthesis of information theory and the neuroscience of arousal, see Donald Pfaff (2005) Brain Arousal and Information Theory: Neural and Genetic Mechanisms. Boston: Harvard University Press.

  8 it will self-stimulate until it starves Olds, J. (1955) Reward from brain stimulation in the rat. Science 122, 878.

  9 and amphetamine by 1,000 per cent Abbott, A. (2002) Addicted. Nature 419, 872�
�874. Di Chiara, G., Imperato, A. (1988) Drugs abused by humans preferentially increase synaptic dopamine concentrations in the mesolimbic system of freely moving rats. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 85, 5274–5278.

  10 dopamine stimulates the wanting of juice rather than the liking of it Berridge, K.C., Robinson, T.E. (1998) What is the role of dopamine in reward: hedonic impact, reward learning, or incentive salience? Brain Research Reviews 28, 309–369.

  11 blue sweater worn on a date Volkow, N. et al. (2002) Nonhedonic food motivation in humans involves dopamine in the dorsal striatum and methylphenidate amplifies this effect. Synapse 44,175–180. Everitt, B., Robbins, T. (2005) Neural systems of reinforcement for drug addiction: from actions to habits to compulsion. Nature Neuroscience 8, 1481–1489.

  12 any experience … can deliver a shot of dopamine Horvitz, J.C. (2000) Mesolimbocortical and nigrostriatal dopamine responses to salient non-reward events. Neuroscience 96, 651–656. Redgrave, P., Prescott, T., Gurney, K. (1999) Is the short-latency dopamine response too short to signal reward error? Trends in Neurosciences 22, 146–151. Pruessner, J., Champagne, F., Meaney, M., Dagher, A. (2004) Dopamine Release in Response to a Psychological Stress in Humans and its Relationship to Early Life Maternal Care: A Positron Emission Tomography Study Using [11C]Raclopride. Journal of Neuroscience 24, 2825–2831. Becerra, L., Breiter, H.C., Wise, R., Gonzalez, R.G., Borsook, D. (2001) Reward circuitry activation by noxious thermal stimuli. Neuron 6, 927–946.

  13 Goodies don’t just fall in your lap; you have to go out and find them Gregory Berns (2006) Satisfaction: Sensation Seeking, Novelty, and the Science of Finding True Fulfillment. New York: Henry Holt. p. 42. Berns speculates that the close relationship between action and reward ‘stems from the dominance that classical learning theory has maintained over psychology for the last seventy years’.

  14 would not walk even a short distance to obtain it Arias-Carrión, O., Pöppel, E. (2007) Dopamine, learning and reward-seeking behavior. Acta Neurobiologiae Experimentalis 67, 481–488.