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The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction

Page 42

by David Orrell


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  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

  For helping this book to exist, and make sense, thanks to my agent, Robert Lecker; my editor, Jim Gifford; copy-editor Janice Weaver; managing editor Noelle Zitzer; and the team at HarperCollins Canada.

  For generously sharing their time and knowledge, I thank (without implying their agreement with the contents) Pedro de Atauri, Hamid Bolouri, Jack von Borstel, Beatriz Leon, Robert Matthews, Joe McCauley, Wendy Orrell, Stephen Ramsey, and Lenny Smith.

  Thanks also to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in the United Kingdom and the Institute for Systems Biology in Seattle, Washington.

  INDEX

  Page references followed by an italic f indicate the presence of a fgure; page references followed by an italic t indicate the presence of a table.

  Abaris

  Abraham, Ralph

  adenine (A)

  adhesion molecules

  aeromancy

  Aeschylus

  AIDS

  Aislabie, John

  akousmatics

  albedo

  alchemy and alchemists

  Alexander the Great

  algebra

  Almagest (Ptolemy)

  almanacs

  amino acids

  amniocentesis

  anima novens

  Annan, Kofi

  antibiotics

  anti-cyclone

  antitheses, Pythagorean

  Apollo

  altar of

  arrows of

  and Gaia

  on male vs female

  as a musician

  and Pythagoras

  and Socrates

  Aristarchus of Samos

  Aristophanes

  Aristotle

  on economic prediction

  and Greek Circle Model

  laws of motion

  Lyceum

  on male vs female

  on metaphor

  on plot structure

  on water

  on weather

  Arrhenius, Svante

  Arrow, Kenneth

  Asimov, Isaac

  Asperger, Hans

  asset valuation

  balance of

  capital asset pricing model

  derivatives

  future prediction of

  intrinsic

  non-monetary

  as random

  asset valuation (continued)

  as a social process

  sticky” prices

  astrology

  for economic prediction

  horoscopes

  for weather prediction

  atmospheric dynamics

  atmospheric pressure

  atomic bomb

  attractorf

  strange

  autism

  autisme-économie

  auto-regulation

  avian fu

  Aztec civilization–55

  Bachelier, Louis–33

  Bacon, Francis

  bacteria

  E. coli

  barometers

  Baron-Cohen, Simon

  Baur, Franz

  behavioural economics

  bell curve

  Bentham, Jeremyn

  Bernoulli, Jakob

  bibliomancy

  bioinformatics

  biological networks

  biology

  biological prediction

  and economics

  systems biology

  Bjerknes, Vilhelm

  Black Monday

  Black-Scholes formula

  Blair, Tony

  Blake, William

  Bohm, David

  Bohr, Niels

  Bolouri, Hamid

  Bondi, Hermann

  bonds

  Bottomless Well (Huber and Mills)

  Brahe, Tycho

  and Kepler

  brain, division of

  BRCA genesn

  Brentano, Franz

  Bruno, Giordano

  Bryson, Billn

  Buffet, Warren

  butterfy effect

  calculus

  cancer

  capital asset pricing model

  Capra, Fritjof

  Caracas (Venezuela)

  carbon cycle

  carbon dioxide

  Cartesian grid

  for calculating distance

  of the earth

  for weather models

  cartomancy

  Cassandra

  cause-and-effect predictions

  Celera

  cells

  division of

  genetic modelling of

  metabolic processes of

  cellular automata

  central dogma

  ceraunoscopy

  Chaerephon

  chance

  chaos theory

  dough-folding example of

  and economic patterns

  as historical term

  popularity of

  vs complexity

  and weather models

  Charney, Jule

  Chavez, Hugo

  chemical elements

  chiromancy

  chlorofuorocarbons (CFCs)

  Chomsky, Noamn

  Christianity

  chromosomes

  circles

  cities, growth of

  civilization, global

  cleromancy

  climate change. See global warming

  climatological forecast

  clouds

  Clouds, The (Aristophanes)

  Club of Rome

  Cold War

  Columbus, Christopher

  comets

  Coming Plague, The (Garrett)

  compartmentalizing

  complex systems

  computers

  human

  World

  Comte, August

  control theory

  Conway, John

  Cop
ernicus (Nicolaus Kopernik)

  heliocentric model

  on motion

  Corens, Carl

  Coriolis effect

  correlation

  vs cause and effect

  Cortés, Hernán

  cosmic harmony

  cosmos, Pythagorean

  Coulomb, Charles Augustin de

  Coupland, Douglas

  Cowles III, Alfred

  Creutzfeldt-Jacob disease

  Crichton, Michael

  Crick, Francis

  criminality

  crooked: vs straight

  Crying Game, The (Jordan)

  crystallomancy

  cystic fibrosis

  cytosine (C)

  Daisyworld

  Danchin, Antoine

  Dark Ages

  darkness: vs light

  Darwin, Charles

  and FitzRoy

  and Galton

  and Malthus

  theory of evolution

  voyage on the Beagle

  Dawkins, Richard

  Dee, John

  deforestation

  forest fres

  Delphic Oracle

  Delphi (ensemble decision-making),

  Democritus

  demographics

  de Moivre, Abraham

  Depression, the (1930s)

  derivatives

  Descartes, Rene

  deterministic science

  de Vries, Hugo

  dialectic

  Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief

  World Systems (Galileo)

  Diogenes

  Discours de la methode (Descartes)

  Discourse on Two New Sciences (Galileo),

  disease

  genetic issues

  human immune system

  humans as

  and micro-organisms

  and stress

  divination methods

  DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid)

  determining sequence of

  double-helix model

  to inspect

  "letters" of

  measurement of genetic text

  and mechanistic science

  sequence

  DNA tests

  Doctrine of Chances, The (de Moivre)

  Dolly (ewe)

  Draper, John

  drift

  dynamical system

  cells as

  gene as

  weather as

  world as

  dynamical systems theory

  Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy

  (DICE)

  E. coli bacteria

  earth (planet)

  analogy with human body

  angle of

  as an organic whole

  brief history of

  as heaviest element

  humans as a disease of

  earthquakes

  Easter Island

  economics and economic prediction

  agent-based models

  analyst forecasting

  asset valuation

  biological approach to

  bubble investments

  chartist forecasting

  effect of new information on

  EMH and market effciency

  feedback mechanisms

  growth rates of

  investors as rational

  large-scale forecasts

  long-term forecasts

  market crashes

  measurements in

  metabolism of

  and policy changes

  and political changes

  probabilistic techniques

  psychology of

  role of individuals and society in

  social dynamics of

  theory of general equilibrium

  vs astrology

  ecosystem models

  effcient market hypothesis (EMH)

  as Apollo hypothesis

  Buffet's distrust of

  dangers of

  resilience of

  techniques developed from

  Einstein, Albert

  on atomic bomb

  relativity theory

  El Avila mudslide (Venezuela)

  electrical charges

  electromagnetic radiation

  electromagnetism

  Electronic Numerical Integrator and

  Computer (ENIAC)

  elements: earth, water, air, fre

  ellipse

  eminence (as a trait)

  empathy

  Empedocles

  energy consumption models

  Engels, Friedrich

  English Men of Science (Galton)

  Enlightenment

  ensemble forecasting

  of climate

  of economics

  of weather

  ENSO

  environment and environmental issues

  historical destruction

  models and predictions of

  and population growth

  Schrodinger's tenets

  as a selection mechanism

  skeptical arguments

  epicycles

  epidemics and pandemics

  in Athens (430 B.C.)

  avian fu

  bubonic plague

  HIV/AIDS

  infuenza (1918)

  models for

  prediction of

  SARS

  smallpox

  tuberculosis

  error, margin of

  Essay on the Principle of Population

  (Malthus)

  Euclid

  Eudoxus

  eugenics

  eukaryotes

  Eumenides, The (Aeschylus)

  Euphorbus

  European Centre for Medium-range

  Weather Forecasts (ECMWF )

  Eurymenes

  even: vs odd

  evolution

  Darwin's theory of

  exponential growth

  of bacteria

  of errors

  of market values

  of population

  regulation of

  external noise

  Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the

  Madness of Crowds (Mackay)

  Fahrenheit, Gabriel

  Fama, Eugene

  fat-tailed distribution

  feedback

  in cell metabolism

  in climate systems

  in economic patterns

  in global systems

  "invisible hand"of capitalism

  and regression to the mean

  and regulatory mechanisms

  female: vs male

  Field, G.C.

  fngerprinting

  fnite differences

  First World War

  FitzRoy, Robert

  fyball governor

  forecasting and prediction

  for 2100

  forecast (term)

  historical predictions

  methods of

  forecasting and prediction (continued)

  for non-mathematicians

  and the Pythagorean antitheses

  See also specifc felds (climate, economics,

  weather, etc.)

  forest fres

  fractal geometry

  Franklin, Benjamin

  Franklin, Rosalind

  free will

  Freud, Sigmund

  Gaia (goddess)

  Gaia theory

  galactosemia

  galactose network and model

  Galilean satellites

  Galilei, Galileo

  and Aristotle

  on monetary value

  on motion

  thermometer

  Galilei, Vincenzo

  Galton, Francis

  and anti-cyclone

  eugenics

  and FitzRoy

  study of fngerprints

  study of human traits

  use of statistics

  and weather maps

  Garrett, Laurie

  Gaus
s, Karl

  Geithner, Timothy

  gene pool

  general cell model

  generalized autoregressive conditional

  heteroskedasticity (GARCH)

  gene therapies

  genetic homogeneity

  genetic mutations

  and cancer

  in genetic research

  and nuclear weapons

  genetics and genetic research

  biological prediction

  disease immunity

  disease prevention

  ethical issues

  factors

  mathematical models

  patents

  risk-assessment tests

  selfsh gene theory

  genotype

  geometry

  Cartesian grid

  fractal

  universe based on

  Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

  (GFDL)

  models

  Geostationary Operational

  Environmental Satellites (GOES)

  global climate model (GCM)

  Global Public Healtmetaphor, Intelligence

  Network

  global warming

  canonical range

  complacency and skepticism about

  and cooling patterns

  economic effects of

  and migration patterns

  physics of

  role of water in

  scientists' view of

  species migration with

  glucose

  Godard, Jean-Luc

  Goddard Institute

  Goethe, Johann Wolfgang von

  gold

  Golding, William

  good vs evil

  Gould, Stephen Jay

  Graunt, John

  gravity

  Galileo's work with

  Newton's laws of motion

  and relativity

  Great Year

  Greek Circle Model

  adjustment of

  frst version

  Galileo's view of

  Kepler's view of

  as a predictive device

  Ptolemy's view of

  second version

  theological importance of

  Greek mythology

  greenhouse gases

  Green Revolution (1970s)

  Greenspan, Alan

  Griffths, Jay

  gross domestic product (GDP)

  guanine (G)

  Guerrien, Bernard

  haiku

  Halley, Edmund

  Hansen, James

  Harley, Robert, Earl of Oxford

  Harmony of the World (Kepler)

  haruspicy

  Havel, Vaclav

  heart disease

  Heisenberg, Werner

  Heraclitus

  Herceptin

  Hertz, Heinrich

  high-resolution model

  Hillman, James

  Hipparchus

  Hippasus

  hippomancy

  histogram

  History of the Confict between Religion

  and Science (Draper)

  History of the Warfare between Science

  and Theology in Christendom, A

  (White)

  Hitchcock, Dian

  Hobbes, Thomas

  homeostasis

  homme moyen, l'

  Hood, Leroy

  n65

  Hooke, Robert

  horoscopes

  Houghton, Henry G.

 

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