Willis, Connie - Doomsday Book (v2.1)

by Doomsday Book (lit)

  "By this evening," Dunworthy said, but Finch informed him they were nearly out of folding cots, and he had to go to the NHS and argue them out of a dozen. They didn't get the ward set up, in two of the Fellows' teaching rooms, until morning.

  Finch, helping assemble the cots and make beds, announced that they were nearly out of clean linens, face masks, and lavatory paper. "We haven't enough for the detainees," he said, tucking in a sheet, "let alone all these patients. And we have no bandages at all."

  "It's not a war," Dunworthy said. "I doubt if there will be any wounded. Did you find out if any of the other colleges has a tech here in Oxford?"

  "Yes, sir, I telephoned all of them, but none of them did." He tucked a pillow beneath his chin. "I've posted notices asking that everyone conserve lavatory paper, but it's done no good at all. The Americans are particularly wasteful." He tugged the pillow slip up over the pillow. "I do feel rather sorry for them, though. Helen came down with it last night, you know, and they haven't any alternates."

  "Helen?"

  "Ms. Piantini. The tenor. She has a fever of 39.7. The Americans won't be able to do their Chicago Surprise."

  Which is probably a blessing, Dunworthy thought. "Ask them if they'll continue to keep watch on my telephone, even though they're no longer practicing," he said. "I'm expecting several important calls. Did Andrews ring back?"

  "No, sir, not yet. And the visual is off." He plumped the pillow. "It is too bad about the peal. They can do Stedmans, of course, but that's old hat. It does seem a pity there's no alternative solution."

  "Did you get the list of techs?"

  "Yes, sir," Finch said, struggling with a reluctant cot. He motioned with his head. "It's there by the chalkboard."

  Dunworthy picked up the sheets of paper and looked at the one on top. It was filled with columns of numbers, all of them with the digits one through six, in varying order.

  "That's not it," Finch said, snatching the papers away. "Those are the changes for the Chicago Surprise." He handed Dunworthy a single sheet. "Here it is. I've listed the techs by college with addresses and telephone numbers."

  Colin came in, wearing his wet jacket and carrying a roll of tape and a plastene-covered bundle. "The vicar said I'm to put these up in all the wards," he said, taking out a placard that read, "Feeling Disoriented? Muddled? Mental Confusion Can Be a Warning Sign of the Flu."

  He tore off a strip of tape and stuck the placard to the chalkboard. "I was just posting these at the Infirmary, and what do you think the Gallstone was doing?" he said, taking another placard out of the bundle. It read, "Wear Your Face Mask." He taped it to the wall above the cot Finch was making. "Reading the Bible to the patients." He pocketed the tape. "I hope I don't catch it." He tucked the rest of the placards under his arm and started out.

  "Wear your face mask," Dunworthy said.

  Colin grinned. "That's what the Gallstone said. And she said, the Lord would smite anyone who heeded not the words of the righteous." He pulled the gray plaid muffler out of his pocket. "I wear this instead of a face mask," he said, tying it over his mouth and nose highwayman fashion.

  "Cloth cannot keep out microscopic viruses," Dunworthy said.

  "I know. It's the color. It frightens them away." He darted out.

  Dunworthy rang Mary to tell her the ward was ready but couldn't get through, so he went over to Infirmary. The rain had let up a little, and people, mostly wearing masks, were out again, coming back from the grocer's and queueing in front of the chemist's. But the streets seemed hushed, unnaturally silent.

  Someone's turned the carillon off, Dunworthy thought. He almost regretted it.

  Mary was in her office, staring at a screen. "The sequencing's arrived," she said before he could tell her about the ward.

  "Have you told Gilchrist?" he said eagerly.

  "No," she said. "It's not the Uruguay virus. Or the South Carolina."

  "What is it?"

  "It's an H9N2. Both the South Carolina and the Uruguay were H3's."

  "Then where did it come from?"

  "The WIC doesn't know. It's not a known virus. It's previously unsequenced." She handed him a printout. "It has a seven point mutation, which explains why it's killing people."

  He looked at the printout. It was covered with columns of numbers, like Finch's list of changes, and as unintelligible. "It has to come from somewhere."

  "Not necessarily. Approximately every ten years, there's a major antigenic shift with epidemic potential, so it may have originated with Badri." She took the printout back from him. "Does he live around livestock, do you know?"

  "Livestock?" he said. "He lives in a flat in Headington."

  "Mutant strains are sometimes produced by the intersection of an avian virus with a human strain. The WIC wants us to check possible avian contacts and exposure to radiation. Viral mutations have sometimes been caused by X-rays." She studied the printout as though it made sense. "It's an unusual mutation. There's no recombination of the hemagluttinin genes, only an extremely large point mutation."

  No wonder she had not told Gilchrist. He had said he would open the laboratory when the sequencing arrived, but this news would only fuel his ridiculous theories.

  "Is there a cure?"

  "There will be as soon as an analogue can be manufactured. And a vaccine. They've already begun work on the prototype."

  "How long?"

  "Three to five days to produce a prototype, then at least another five to manufacture, if they don't run into any difficulty with duplicating the proteins. We should be able to begin inoculating by the tenth."

  The tenth. And that was when they could begin giving immunizations. How long would it take to immunize the quarantine area? A week? Two? Before Gilchrist and the idiot protesters considered it safe to open the laboratory?

  "That's too long," Dunworthy said.

  "I know," Mary said, and sighed. "God knows how many cases we'll have by then. There have been five new ones already this morning."

  "Do you think it's a mutant strain?" Dunworthy asked.

  She thought about it. "No. I think it's much more likely that Badri caught it from someone at that dance in Headington. There may have been New Hindus there, or Earthers, or someone else who doesn't believe in antivirals or modern medicine. The Canadian goose flu of 2010, if you'll remember, was traced back to a Christian Science commune. There's a source. We'll find it."

  "And what about Kivrin in the meantime? What if you don't find the source by the rendezvous? Kivrin's supposed to come back on the sixth of January. Will you have it sourced by then?"

  "I don't know," she said wearily. "She may not want to come back to a century that's rapidly becoming a ten. She may want to stay in 1320."

  If she's in 1320, he thought, and went up to see Badri. He had not mentioned rats since Christmas night. He was back to the afternoon at Balliol when he had come looking for Dunworthy. "Laboratory?" he murmured when he saw Dunworthy. He tried feebly to hand him a note, and then seemed to sink into sleep, exhausted by the effort.

  He stayed only a few minutes and then went to see Gilchrist.

  It was raining hard again by the time he reached Brasenose. The gaggle of picketers were huddling underneath their banner, shivering.

  The porter was standing at the lodge desk, taking the decorations off the little Christmas tree. He glanced up at Dunworthy and looked suddenly alarmed. Dunworthy walked past him and through the gate.

  "You can't go in there, Mr. Dunworthy," the porter called after him. "The college is restricted."

  Dunworthy walked into the quad. Gilchrist's rooms were in the building behind the laboratory. He hurried toward them, expecting the porter to catch up to him and try to stop him.

  The laboratory had a large yellow sign on it that read "No Admittance Without Authorization," and an electronic alarm attached to the jamb.

  "Mr. Dunworthy," Gilchrist said, striding toward him through the rain. The porter must have phoned him. "The laboratory is off-limits."


  "I came to see you," Dunworthy said.

  The porter came up, trailing a tinsel garland. "Shall I phone for the University police?" he asked.

  "That won't be necessary. Come up to my rooms," he said to Dunworthy. "I have something I want you to see."

  He led Dunworthy into his office, sat down at his cluttered desk, and put on an elaborate mask with some sort of filters.

  "I've just spoken to the WIC," he said. His voice sounded hollow, as if it were coming from a great distance. "The virus is a previously unsequenced virus whose source is unknown."

  "It's been sequenced now," Dunworthy said, "and the analogue and vaccine are due to arrive in a few days. Dr. Ahrens has arranged for Brasenose to be given immunization priority, and I'm attempting to locate a tech who can read the fix as soon as immunization has been completed."

  "I'm afraid that's impossible," Gilchrist said hollowly. "I've been conducting research into the incidence of influenza in the 1300's. There are clear indications that a series of influenza epidemics in the first half of the fourteenth century severely weakened the populace, thereby lowering their resistance to the Black Death."

  He picked up an ancient-looking book. I have found six separate references to outbreaks between October of 1318 and February of 1321." He held up a book and began to read. "'After the harvest there came upon all of Dorset a fever so fierce as to leave many dead. This fever began with an aching in the head and confusion in all the parts. The doctors bled them, but many died in despite.'"

  A fever. In an age of fevers -- typhoid and cholera and measles, all of them producing "aching of the head and confusion in all the parts."

  "1319. The Bath Assizes for the previous year were cancelled," Gilchrist said, holding up another book. "'A malady of the chest that fell upon the court so that none, nor judge nor jury, were left to hear the cases,'" Gilchrist said. He looked at Dunworthy over the mask. "You stated that the public's fears over the net were hysterical and unfounded. It would seem, however, that they are based in solid historical fact."

  Solid historical fact. References to fevers and maladies of the chest that could be anything, blood poisoning or typhus or any of a hundred nameless infections. All of which was beside the point.

  "The virus cannot have come through the net," he said. "Drops have been made to the Pandemic, to World War I battles in which mustard gas was used, to Tel Aviv. Twentieth Century sent detection equipment to the site of St. Paul's two days after the pinpoint was dropped. Nothing comes through."

  "So you say." He held up a printout. "Probability indicates a .003 per cent possibility of a microorganism being transmitted through the net and a 22.1 per cent chance of a viable myxovirus being within the critical area when the net was opened."

  "Where in God's name do you get these figures?" Dunworthy said. "Pull them out of a hat? According to Probability," he said, putting a nasty emphasis on the word, "there was only a .04 per cent chance of anyone's being present when Kivrin went through, a possibility you considered statistically insignificant."

  "Viruses are exceptionally sturdy organisms," Gilchrist said. "They have been known to lie dormant for long periods of time, exposed to extremes of temperature and humidity, and still be viable. Under certain conditions they form crystals which retain their structure indefinitely. When put back into solution they become infective again. Viable tobacco mosaic crystals have been found dating from the sixteenth century.

  "There is clearly a significant risk of the virus's penetrating the net if opened, and under the circumstances I cannot possibly allow the net to be opened."

  "The virus cannot have come through the net," Dunworthy said.

  "Then why are you so anxious to have the fix read?"

  "Because -- " Dunworthy said, and stopped to get control of himself. "Because reading the fix will tell us whether the drop went as planned or whether something went wrong."

  "Oh, you'll admit there's a possibility of error then?" Gilchrist said. "Then why not an error that would allow a virus through the net? As long as that possibility exists, the laboratory will remain locked. I'm certain Mr. Basingame will approve of the course of action I've taken."

  Basingame, Dunworthy thought, that's what this is all about. It has nothing to do with the virus or the protesters or 'maladies of the chest' in 1318. This is all to justify himself to Basingame.

  Gilchrist was Acting Head in Basingame's absence, and he had rushed through the reranking, rushed through a drop, intending no doubt to present Basingame with a brilliant fait accompli. But he hadn't got it. Instead, he'd got an epidemic and a lost historian and people picketing the college, and now all he cared about was vindicating his actions, saving himself even though it meant sacrificing Kivrin.

  "What about Kivrin? Does Kivrin approve of your course of action?" he said.

  "Ms. Engle was fully aware of the risks when she volunteered to go to 1320," Gilchrist said.

  "Was she aware you intended to abandon her?"

  "This conversation is over, Mr. Dunworthy." Gilchrist stood up. "I will open the laboratory when the virus has been sourced, and it has been proven to my satisfaction that there is no chance it came through the net."

  He showed Dunworthy to the door. The porter was waiting outside.

  "I have no intention of allowing you to abandon Kivrin," Dunworthy said.

  Gilchrist crimped his lips under the mask. "And I have no intention of allowing you to endanger the health of this community." He turned to the porter. "Escort Mr. Dunworthy to the gate. If he attempts to enter Brasenose again, telephone the police." He slammed the door.

  The porter walked Dunworthy across the quad, watching him warily, as if he thought he might turn suddenly dangerous.

  I might, Dunworthy thought. "I want to use your telephone," he said when they reached the gate. "University business."

  The porter looked nervous, but he set a telephone on the counter and watched while Dunworthy punched Balliol's number. When Finch answered, he said, "We've got to locate Basingame. It's an emergency. Phone the Scottish Fishing License Bureau and compile a list of hotels and inns. And get me Polly Wilson's number."

  He wrote down the number, rang off, and started to punch it in and then thought better of it and telephoned Mary.

  "I want to help source the virus," he said.

  "Gilchrist wouldn't open the net," she said.

  "No," he said. "What can I do to help with the sourcing?"

  "What you were doing before with the primaries. Trace the contacts, look for the things I told you about, exposure to radiation, proximity to birds or livestock, religious that forbid antivirals. You'll need the contacts charts."

  "I'll send Colin for them," he said.

  "I'll have someone get them ready. You'd better check Badri's contacts back four to six days, as well, in case the virus did originate with him. The time of incubation from a reservoir can be longer than a person-to-person incubation period."

  "I'll put William on it," he said. He pushed the phone back at the porter, who immediately came around the counter and walked him out to the pavement. Dunworthy was surprised he didn't follow him all the way to Balliol.

  As soon as he got there, he phoned Polly Wilson. "Is there some way you can get into the net's console without having access to the laboratory?" he asked her. "Can you go in directly through the University's computer?"

  "I don't know," she said. "The University's computer is moated. I might be able to rig a bettering ram, or worm in from Balliol's console. I'll have to see what the safeties are. Do you have a tech to read it if I can get it set up?"

  "I'm getting one," he said. He rang off.

  Colin came in, dripping wet, to get another roll of tape. "Did you know the sequencing came, and the virus is a mutant?"

  "Yes," Dunworthy said. "I want you to go to Infirmary and get the contacts charts from your great-aunt."

  Colin set down his load of placards. The one on top read, "Do Not Have a Relapse."

  "The
y're saying it's some sort of biological weapon," Colin said. "They're saying it escaped from a laboratory."

  Not Gilchrist's, he thought bitterly. "Do you know where William Gaddson is?"

  "No." Colin made a face. "He's probably on the staircase kissing someone."

  He was in the buttery, embracing one of the detainees. Dunworthy told him to find out Badri's whereabouts for Thursday through Sunday morning and to obtain a copy of Basingame's credit records for December, and went back to his rooms to telephone techs.

  One of them was running a net for Nineteenth Century in Moscow, and two of them had gone skiing. The other weren't at home, or perhaps, alerted by Andrews, they weren't answering.

  Colin brought the contacts charts. They were a disaster. No attempt had been made to correlate any of the information except possible American connections, and there were too many contacts. Half of the primaries had been at the dance in Headington, two-thirds of them had gone Christmas shopping, all but two of them had ridden the tube. It was like looking for a needle in a haystack.

  He spent half the night checking religious affiliations and running cross-matches. Forty-two of them were Church of England, nine Holy Re-Formed, seventeen unaffiliated. Eight were students at Shrewsbury College, eleven had stood in line at Debenham's to see Father Christmas, nine had worked on Montoya's dig, thirty had shopped at Blackwell's.

  Twenty-one of them had cross-contacts with at least two other secondaries, and Debenham's Father Christmas had had contact with thirty-two (all but eleven at a pub after his shift), but none of them could be traced to all the primaries except Badri.

  Mary brought the overflow cases in the morning. She was wearing SPG's, but no mask. "Are the beds ready?" she said.

  "Yes. We've got two wards of ten beds each."

  "Good. I'll need all of them."

  They helped the patients into the makeshift ward and into bed and left them in the care of William's nurse trainee. "The stretcher cases will be over as soon as we have an ambulance free," Mary said, walking back across the quad with Dunworthy.