The Theory That Would Not Die
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genetic science and, 47–48
hypotheses and, 116–17, 142, 217, 234
image analysis and, 219
insurance and, 92, 94
likelihood principle and, 132, 233
Lindley’s Paradox and, 132–33
military and, 241
movies and, 178
nuclear weapons and, 123
philosophy and, 253–54
practical applications and, generally, 209
priors and, 104, 177
probability and, 36, 50, 55–57, 99, 130, 142, 145–46, 156, 170
social science and, 217
statistics and, 47–48, 87–88, 98–99, 104–5, 142, 214, 234, 253
Stein’s Paradox and, 131–32
subjectivity and, 104, 129
Tukey and, 169–70
uncertainty and, 55–57, 142
unified approach and, 170
Friedman, Milton, 102, 159, 235
Fuchs, Klaus, 85
gambling: astronomy and, 36
Bayes’ rule and, 11
beliefs and, 51–52
game theory, 236
at Harvard Business School, 148
Laplace and, 19, 20, 21, 32
probability and, 6, 9, 51–52
statistics and, 106–7
subjectivity and, 185
game theory, 236.
See also gambling
Gastwirth, Joseph L., 227
Gates, Bill, 242
Gauss, C. F., 102
Gelfand, Alan E., 220–22, 224–25
Geman, Donald, 218–19, 221
Geman, Stuart, 218–19, 221, 251
gender, x, 24–27
generating functions, 25
genetic science, xi, 45–48, 225, 235–36, 238–40
Gerrodette, Timothy, 230
Gibbs, Josiah Willard, 219
Gibbs sampling, 218–19, 221, 225–26
Gilbert, Edgar N., 169
Gillispie, Charles Coulston, 35
Gini, Corrado, 52
Gleason, Andrew, 83
God: Bayes’ rule and, ix, 10, 11, 253–54
cause-and-effect and, 5–6
evil and, 4
existence of, 177, 235
happiness and, 4
natural law and, 6, 30
probability and, 19–20.
See also religion
Goheen, Robert F., 165
Goldwater, Barry M., 172
Good, I. J. “Jack”: on Bayes’ rule’s varieties, 129
Colossi computers and, 81
cryptography and, 68, 69, 74, 82, 83–84, 86, 99–100, 135, 173, 174
genetic science and, 239
on Markov chains, 222
priors and, 178
publication by, 99–101
at Royal Statistical Society, 87, 99
at Virginia Tech, 98, 176
Goodman, Joshua, 242
Goodman, Steven N., 56
Google, xi, 244–45, 247
Gorry, Anthony, 135
Graham, Evarts A., 109
Grattan-Guinness, Ivor, 35
Graunt, John, 24
gravitation, 6, 14, 16–18, 21, 28, 56
Grazier, Colin, 75
Green, Peter, 226–27
Greenspan, Alan, 236, 237
Gregg, Walter, 122–23, 183
Grenander, Ulf, 218
Groves, Leslie R., 165
Guest, William S., 190–92, 193
Hald, Anders, 48
Halley, Edmond, 14
Halley’s comet, 14
Hamilton, Alexander, 155–58, 159–61
Hammersley, John M., 223
Hammond, E. Cuyler, 112
happiness, 4
Harris, Jeffrey E., 215–16
Harris, Louis, 168
Harsanyi, John C., 236
Hartley, David, 9
Harvard Business School, 140–43, 146–53, 156–57, 237
Harvard College, 158
Hastings, W. Keith, 223
healthcare. See medicine
heart attacks, x, 114–16
Heckerman, David E., 228, 242, 243
Hemings, Sally, 235–36
hierarchies, 214–15
Hilborn, Ray, 209
Hill, Austin Bradford “Tony,” 109–10, 111, 112
Hills, Susan E., 224
Hiss, Alger, 85
Hitler, Adolf, 61, 73, 81
Hoff, Peter, 244
Hoffenberg, Marvin, 110
Holmes, Susan, 178, 238–39
homosexuality, 85–86
Horn, Daniel, 112
Horwitz, Eric, 242, 243
Howard, Ron, 228
Howard, W. M. “Jack,” 184
human immunodeficiency virus, 227
Hume, David, 5–6, 10–11, 121
Hung, Wing H., 220–21
Hunt, Bobby R., 218
Hunter, J. Stuart, 177
Hunter, William G., 177
Huntley, Chet, 163, 172
Huntley-Brinkley Report, 163–64, 166–68, 171–73, 174–75
hydrogen bomb, 119–128, 182–95.
See also nuclear weapons
hypotheses: astronomy and, 238
business and, 145–46
Cornfield and, 116–17
cryptography and, 66–68, 75–76, 83
earthquakes and, 55–57
frequentism and, 116–17, 142, 217, 234
Lindley’s Paradox and, 132–33
Neyman-Pearson theory for, 49
nuclear weapons and, 185–86, 195
search and, 185–86, 195, 197, 198–202, 204–5, 206–8
social science and, 217
submarines and, 197, 198–202, 206–8
U.S. Coast Guard and, 204–5
IBM, 245–7
Iklé, Fred Charles, 120, 123, 126, 127
image analysis, 217–19, 220–21, 227, 238, 240–41
impossibility, 121
insurance: casualty, 3, 91–96
probability and, 8–9, 19
subjectivity and, 44–45, 93
workers’ compensation, x, 3, 42–45, 93, 131
integration, 134
International Society for Bayesian Analysis, 135
Internet, 242–45
intuition, 33, 101, 150, 151, 241.
See also belief
subjectivity
inverse probability: astronomy and, 21, 32–33, 36–37
Bayes’ rule and, generally, 6–10, 11
beliefs and, 36
cancer and, 113–14
cause-and-effect and, 9
central limit theorem and, 30–31
earthquakes and, 54–58
Enigma code and, 68–69
Fisher on, 48
image analysis and, 218
data and, 36, 53–54
Laplace and, 19–28, 30–33, 113–14
military and, 38
objectivity and, 36, 37
operations research and, 79
subjectivity and, 36, 37
terminology of, 129–30
Jahn, Robert G., 133
James, Willard D., 131
Jay, John, 155
Jaynes, Edwin T., 176, 227
Jefferson, Thomas, 235–36
Jeffreys, Harold: computation and, 134
Cornfield and, 116
decision making and, 234
earthquakes and, 53–58
influence of, 103, 116, 147
Lindley’s Paradox and, 132
objectivity and, 178
physical sciences and, 176
practical applications and, 145, 161
publication by, 87
Second World War and, 64, 69, 79
Jesus Christ, 177
JN-25 code, 82–83
Johnson, Lyndon B., 172, 188, 190, 193, 196
Johnson, Wesley O., 227
Jordan, Michael I., 239
judicial systems, 27–28, 38–39, 52–53, 135, 136, 235–36
Kahn, David, 99–1
00
Kahneman, Daniel, 236
Kalman, Rudolf E., 205
Kalman filters, 205, 225, 240–41, 248–49.
Also called Kalman-Bucy filters.
Kass, Robert E., 105, 234
Keen, Harold “Doc,” 65
Kemble, Edwin, 141
Kempthorne, Oscar, 88
Kennedy, John F., 127, 163, 168, 218
Kepler, Johannes, 16
Keynes, John Maynard, 37, 46, 235
Kimball, George E., 78
King, Ernest, 78
Kinsey, Alfred C., 154
Kinsey Report, 117, 154–55, 166–67
Knox, Dillwyn, 65
Koller, Daphne, 239–40
Kolmogorov, Andrei, x, 72–73, 76, 77, 80, 101, 121
Koopman, Bernard O., 78–80, 184, 187, 188, 204
Koren, Yehuda, 243–44
Kruskal, William, 46, 106
Kuhn, Thomas, 225
Laird, Nan, 221
Lalande, Joseph, 14
language, 245–47
Laplace, Marie Anne, 28–29, 30
Laplace, Pierre Simon: astronomy and, 14, 16–18, 19, 21, 28, 32–33, 36–37
Bailey uses, 93
Bayes’ rule discovered by, ix–x, 3, 20–22, 23, 31–32, 129–30, 176
biographical details on, 13–14, 15–16, 22–23, 28–30, 33
central limit theorem and, 21, 30–31
criticism of, 34–38
frequency methods and, 31, 156
gambling and, 19, 20, 21
gender and, 24–27
data and, 17–18, 24
intuition of, 33
inverse probability and, 19–28, 30–33, 113–14
mathe matics and, 14, 15, 16, 18–24, 33
religion and, 13–14, 14–15, 19–20, 30, 36
Royal Academy of Sciences and, 16, 18, 21, 22–23, 29
statistics and, 35
Lavoisier, Antoine, 29
law. See judicial systems
Lawrence, Charles E., 225
Leahy, F. T., 135–36
learning, 247–48, 249–50. See also education
Ledley, Robert S., 135
Leibniz, Gottfried, 14
LeMay, Curtis E., 119, 127, 182
Lepaute, Nicole-Reine, 14
likelihood, xi, 8, 104, 132, 222, 233.
Lindberg, Jon, 192
Lindley, Dennis: administration by, 176
on Bayes’ rule, generally, 88, 232
computation and, 134, 214–15, 219–20
Cornfield and, 116
Diaconis and, 178
forensic science and, 235
hierarchies and, 214–15
on information, 249–50
Jeffreys and, 55, 57, 58
on Laplace, 130
Lindley’s Paradox, 132–33
on Markov chains, 223
mathematics and, 148
Mosteller and, 178
practical applications and, 139, 156, 178
on priors, 123
probability and, 55, 233–34
publication by, 99, 101, 103–4, 107
at Royal Statistical Society, 99, 107
on Schlaifer, 152
Lindley’s Paradox, 132–33
Lindman, Harold, 133
Link, Richard F., 168, 172, 174
Liu, Jun S., 225
Loane, Ed P., 187–88
local effectiveness probability, 191–92, 195, 197, 203–4
Longley-Cook, L. H., 94–95
Loredo, Tom, 238
Lorenz machines, 73–74, 75, 84
Los Alamos National Laboratory, 218
Louis XVIII, 33
LSD, 126–27
Ludlum, Robert, 235
Lusted, Lee B., 135
Maclean, Donald, 85, 86
Madansky, Albert, 120–28, 149, 176
Madison, James, 155–58, 159–61
Mahon, Patrick, 68
mammograms, 255–57
Marie, Maximilien, 34
Markov, Andrei Andreyevich, 222
Markov chains, 149, 151, 221–26, 246
Markowitz, Harry, 236
mathematics: astronomy and, 14, 16–18, 19
business and, 142–43, 148–49, 151
Enigma code and, 62, 63
The Federalist papers and, 157–58
Laplace, and, 14
Laplace and, 14, 15, 16, 18–24, 33
military and, 97, 119
nuclear weapons and, 186–92, 193
probability and, 23–24, 33, 72
reason and, 4
religion and, 4, 5–6, 11
science and, 167
search and, 186–92, 193, 201
Second World War and, 63–64
statistics and, 97–98, 101, 103–6, 130, 157–58, 167, 214
submarines and, 201
Mauchly, John, 168
Maxwell, James Clerk, 37
Mayer, Maria Goeppert, 222
Mayerson, Allen L., 95
McCarthy, Joseph, 85, 87
McCullagh, Peter, 169
MCMC, 224–6, 232.
See also Markov chains
Monte Carlo simulation
McNamara, Robert, 194
means, 130–32
medical devices, 228–29
medicine: cancer, x, 108–9, 110–14, 215–16, 227–28, 235, 255–57
diagnosis in, 135, 226–29, 255–57
heart attacks, x, 114–16
strokes, 226–27, 244
treatment in, 116, 235
X-rays, 53
Mercer, Robert L., 237–38, 245–47
Meshenberg, M. P., 101
meta-analysis, 215–16
metric system, 29
Metropolis, Nicholas, 222–23, 224
Michie, Donald, 81, 82
Microsoft, 242–43
military: asteroids and, 209
in Cold War, generally, 164–65, 173–75, 215
equal probabilities and, 38, 73
of France, 29, 38–40
image analysis and, 240, 241
inverse probability and, 38
mathematics and, 97
nuclear weapons and, 119–28, 182–95
robotics and, 240
of Russia, 72–73
satellites and, 209
statistics and, 97
submarines and, 194–203, 206–8
translation and, 247
weapons systems and, 241.
See also Second World War
Mill, John Stuart, 36, 52
Milner-Barry, P. Stuart, 71–72
mines, coal, 216–17
minesweeping, 184
modeling: averaging and, 244
BUGS and, 226
imaging and, 218, 221
Netflix and, 243–44
comparing and, 226–27,
revolution in, 233–34
after 1998, 225
sociology and, 216–17
Molina, Edward C., 40–42, 76, 93, 110
Montagu, Elizabeth, 5
Monte Carlo simulation, 199–200, 202, 205, 218–19, 221–22, 225–26
Mooney, J. Brad, 192–93
Morgenstern, Oskar, 144
Morse, Philip M., 78
Morton, Keith W., 223
Mosteller, Frederick, 146, 154–62, 171, 176, 177, 178, 243
movies, 149–50, 178, 243–44
Moynihan, Daniel Patrick, 159, 162
multivariate revolution, 213–14
Murdoch, Patrick, 5
naïve Bayes, 244
Napoleon Bonaparte, 27, 30
Nash, John, 236
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 215
National Broadcasting Corporation, 163–64, 166–68, 171–73, 174–75
National Institutes of Health, 110–11, 117
National Security Agency, 135–36, 164–65, 173–74
natural law, x, 6, 30
Neiman, Fraser D., 236
Netflix, 243–44
netw
orks, 228, 239, 242, 245, 248
neuroscience, 248–50
Newman, Max, 81, 84, 85
Newton, Isaac, 4, 6, 14, 16–18, 56
Neyman, Jerzy: cancer and, 112
empirical Bayes and, 134
Fisher and, 98–99
frequentism and, generally, 49–51, 234
at Graduate School, 110
influence of, generally, 83, 87, 92, 96, 141, 178
Lindley and, 133
practical applications and, generally, 145
priors and, 129
Second World War and, 64
Tukey and, 170
at UC Berkeley, 98–99, 107, 177
Nicholson, John, 206, 207–8
Nightingale, Florence, 35
Nixon, Richard M., 163, 168, 235
Nobel Prize, 236
Nollet, Jean Antoine, 15
Norvig, Peter, 244
Novak, Kim, 114
nuclear energy, x, 3, 117, 178–81
nuclear weapons: development of, 85
earthquakes and, 164
expert opinion and, 185–86
hypotheses and, 185–86, 195
image analysis and, 218
location of, x, 3, 182–95
Markov chains and, 222
mathematics and, 186–92, 193
operations research and, 186–92
Palomares accident, 182–95
priors and, 186, 187–88, 195
probability and, 121–22, 185–86, 187–88, 191–92, 193, 195
safety of, 119–28, 182–83, 189–90, 194–95
subjectivity and, 185–86, 195
Thule accident, 194
objectivity: Bayes’ rule and, generally, ix, x, 8, 11
information and, 103
inverse probability and, 36, 37
priors and, 103, 178
probability and, 36, 37, 106
statistics and, 103, 106.
See also subjectivity
oil drilling, 149, 209
Operation Chrome Dome, 182–83, 194–95
operations research, 77–80, 119–20, 141, 186–92
opinion polls, 154–55, 163–64, 166–67, 171
Orear, Jay, 102
Orts, Francisco Simo, 186, 192–93, 194
Palomares accident, 182–95
paternity law, 52–53
Pearl, Judea, 228, 239
Pearson, Egon: empirical Bayes and, 134
frequentism and, generally, 48–49, 234
influence of, 130, 141, 147, 178
practical applications and, 139, 145
Tukey and, 170
Pearson, Karl, 35, 45–46, 48–49, 132
Peirce, Charles Sanders, 37
pharmaceuticals, 229
philosophy: Bayes’ rule as, 3, 97, 105–6, 116–17, 123, 147–48, 253–54
frequentism and, 253–54
physical sciences, 102–3, 176, 214, 222–23, 238.
See also astronomy
earthquakes
Pierce, John R., 174
Poincaré, Henri, 39, 40
Poisson distribution, 42
population, 27
posteriors: in Bayes’ rule, 8
in communications, 77
conjugate priors and, 149
fiducial probability and, 133
in heart disease study, 115
location and, 203–4