Arctic Gambit

by Larry Bond

  The autopilot reduced the Bear F’s altitude as it lined up for the initial MAD run. They had to get the position just right as the magnetic anomaly detector had a very short range, even against a larger nuclear submarine. The major doubted they were dealing with a U.S. or UK attack boat; far more likely the contact was a Norwegian diesel sub.

  The aircraft roared over the submarine’s estimated position and the detector registered the distortion in the Earth’s magnetic field caused by the submarine’s hull. Its precise location was recorded and fed back into the combat computer. Once again the big plane began another tight turn to get back over the area as quickly as possible.

  As soon as the powerful Kuznetsov turboprops had hauled the aircraft around, the bomb bay doors slowly opened. Leveling out, the plane rapidly accelerated, racing to 450 knots. Just before it reached the sub’s location, the first PLAB-250-120 depth bomb dropped away from the aircraft’s belly, then another, and yet another. The Bear F then suddenly pulled up, climbing away from the ocean surface just as three large grayish-white geysers broke the surface and shot skyward.

  18 July 2021

  1715 Eastern Daylight Time

  Office of the First Lady, The White House

  Washington, D.C.

  * * *

  Dr. Joanna Patterson leaned back in her chair with a contented sigh; she’d just wrapped up the final details for her next event at a local science and technology magnet school. Thankfully her chief of staff had done all the legwork and Joanna just had to review and approve the agenda. She had found, much to her surprise, that she didn’t mind many of the public responsibilities of being the first lady. She was particularly eager to promote education programs, especially those that focused on science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, but the more pure “social” aspects were drudgery.

  The Office of the First Lady was on the second floor of the East Wing, about two hundred yards and one floor away from her old workspace in the West Wing. She’d rarely visited this part of the White House before, and was surprised by the size of the office … and the staff. In addition to her chief of staff, Joanna had a dozen other assistants that helped her with everything from press releases, social events, state parties, floral design, and ad hoc special projects. Then there was the White House executive chef, Rob Wells. Chef Rob had an impressive culinary repertoire that spanned virtually all cultures and ranged from hearty rustic fare to extravagant, refined haute cuisine. Lowell had reluctantly commented after an exquisite meal that perhaps, possibly, maybe he was over-indulging a little in sampling Chef Rob’s creations.

  Still, Joanna’s primary duties as first lady didn’t prevent her from dipping her fingers in the national security matters bowl every now and then. And while the president didn’t “formally” include her in the policy-making structure, he was no fool, and recognized that her talents and expertise were invaluable. They’d tackled more than a few complex problems together in the past, and both knew they made a good team. The real problem was with some of members of the Hardy administration and Congress.

  She was unique; no first lady had served as the national security advisor in a previous administration, so there wasn’t any precedence on how to handle such a complicated couple. President Hardy was sensitive to the awkwardness of the situation, and while he allowed Joanna to retain her clearances and access, he wanted to clearly separate her first lady responsibilities from those of unofficial NSA emeritus. This included her office in the East Wing. No classified information was allowed there, nor was there access to classified networks or a secure phone. If Joanna wanted to review classified documents, or discuss them with others, she had to physically move to a small office Lowell had set up for her near the Situation Room in the basement of the West Wing.

  On the plus side, she was free to do her own analysis, provide opinions and recommendations, but she wasn’t allowed to assign work or give orders. That last bit chafed. It had taken some getting used to, but by and large Joanna was satisfied with the compromise that was widely viewed as fair and reasonable. But that didn’t mean everyone was thrilled with the arrangement.

  Joanna still had a good hour before her husband would wrap up his day, and she wanted to catch up with the ongoing Russia crisis. She hurriedly cleaned off her desk and headed for the door, bidding her secretary “good evening” as she left. Aware that she too was suffering from Chef Rob’s expansionist policies, she took the stairs down to the first floor at a brisk pace and crossed the East Colonnade into the residence villa. Strolling through the Center Hall with its arched vaulted ceiling, Joanna admired the beautiful architecture and the fine art on display. She then crossed the West Colonnade before entering the West Wing. After another set of stairs down to the ground level, she found herself back in her old haunts. Several people warmly greeted Joanna as she approached her “other” office. It was surreal; only seven months earlier these people had worked for her.

  While Joanna logged into her top secret computer account, one of the duty officers stopped by with a fresh cup of coffee. They chatted for a brief moment as the classified network brought up her e-mail account. As the duty officer departed, he said a number of reports on Russia’s latest impolite behavior were waiting in her inbox. He was sure she’d find them of considerable interest. He was right.

  At the top of the electronic pile was a FLASH precedence message from NATO’s Allied Maritime Command Headquarters in Northwood, Great Britain. The message briefly described an attack on the Royal Norwegian Navy submarine Uredd (S 305) by a Russian Bear F maritime patrol aircraft. The Bear F had made two passes on Uredd, dropping a total of six depth bombs before the Norwegian submarine could shake off the large ASW aircraft and escape.

  The first five bombs were dropped at some distance from the submarine and caused no damage. The last depth bomb, however, detonated much closer, shaking the submarine violently. There was moderate damage to the periscopes and masts, minor damage to the combat system, and a hydraulic leak that was subsequently contained. The message also reported four personnel casualties, one serious. Joanna shuddered as she read the damage report; she knew exactly what Uredd’s crew had gone through. Even though it had been sixteen years, she could still vividly recall when a Bear F had bounced Memphis.

  But it was the last paragraph that caused her the greatest apprehension. The Norwegian submarine had been well away from Russian territorial waters at the time of the attack. Given the deliberate, unprovoked nature of the incident, NATO was issuing a warning to all ships, submarines, and aircraft that Russian conduct was becoming increasingly erratic and belligerent.

  Still shaking her head, she started looking at the other files her ex-staff had sent her; the majority was on the recently announced Resolve-2021 exercise. It didn’t take long for her to realize that this exercise was going to be even larger than Center-2015. That exercise had mobilized over one hundred thousand members of the Russian Federation armed forces. In addition, Resolve-2021 was nationwide, involving all four military districts, not just two; the sheer number of messages on troop movements was mind-boggling. She grabbed the secure phone and punched a number.

  “George, can you drop by if you have a minute? Good. Thanks.”

  Two minutes later there were two sharp knocks on the door. Joanna looked up and saw George Hendricks standing in the doorway. “Yes, ma’am, what can I do for you?”

  “This exercise the Russians are spinning up, do you have a summary of the units involved? It looks like they are calling up four or five of their armies.”

  “Six, actually, Dr. Patterson.”

  “Six?”

  “Yes, it looks like the Second Army got their marching orders the other day. We’re starting to see train cars stack up at a marshaling yard near Samara.”

  “What does the JCS think of all this?”

  Hendricks shook his head. “Ma’am, we’ve all been whipsawed by this guy lately. Just as soon as I think we’re finally starting to figure out what the hell is going
on, Fedorin pulls some more crazy ass sh … crap, and we’re back to square one. It’s … it’s quite frustrating.”

  Joanna thought she detected something more in his voice, but let it go. These weren’t her people anymore. “What do we know of the exercise’s intent? Is there a clear theme?”

  “Nothing has been formally announced, other than the exercise’s name, but all the indications are that this is a multi-theater, general war exercise. However, given the number of units moving westward, I’d have to say there is a very strong anti-NATO flavor to this one.”

  “I noticed that the navy and the air force aren’t involved anywhere near as much as the army. Any theories?” she asked.

  “Both the navy and air force appear to have a lot equipment down for repair. There certainly was nothing to suggest this exercise was part of the annual training plan; on the contrary, we’ve heard of some bellyaching from unit commanders.”

  Joanna took a deep breath, this whole thing was a “soup sandwich,” to quote her husband. She looked back up at Hendricks and smiled. “I’d better let you get back to work, George. Thank you for coming by.”

  “No problem, Dr. Patterson. It’s always enjoyable hashing stuff out with you; just like old times. I’ll send you the summary in a minute.” As Joanna watched him depart, a concerned frown slowly appeared on her face. She’d heard the guarded words, the tight tone of Hendricks’s voice. She made a mental note to ask Bill Hyland how things were going. Her musings were interrupted by a new e-mail with the list of Russian units and a map showing the rough deployment locations for the exercise.

  She opened the list and map and started tracing the units’ movements. The general shape of the exercise locations was a shallow crescent running all the way from the Kola Peninsula down to the Georgian border. But as she looked at the assessed starting positions, they looked more than a bit odd. Two of the armies had already started moving following the Belarusian reunification, and then after the incident in Estonia, the Sixth Army near St. Petersburg began moving westward.

  Then she saw that the bulk of the Russian forces were moving south, toward Ukraine and Georgia, and north toward the Baltic States. The center was held almost entirely by Belarusian army units. Neither of these made a lot of sense; surely the Russian General Staff couldn’t possibly believe that either Ukraine or Georgia would ever consider launching an attack against the motherland. Nor was it realistic to imagine that NATO would conduct a major thrust through the Baltics. The logistic lift required for such an offensive operation was well beyond NATO’s current abilities. Suddenly, a distant memory tugged on her consciousness.

  In 2015 the Rand Corporation ran a series of war games that highlighted the vulnerability of the Baltic States from a Russian invasion and recommended that NATO shore up its conventional deterrence on the eastern flank against this unlikely, though plausible scenario. The debate over the published report’s conclusions waged for many months. Several detractors thought that putting additional forces on Russia’s northeastern border would only stir the pot, but improving the alliance’s existing warfighting capabilities was worth considering. Others believed that the deterrent power intrinsic in the North Atlantic treaty’s Article V was sufficient to keep a struggling Russia at bay. All sides of the debate believed that a war would be catastrophic, nor did they believe it would stay conventional.

  Joanna pulled up the report’s executive summary. Even though the judgments were in reference to Vladimir Putin, they were equally applicable to Ivan Fedorin, if not more so. The key assessment that hit home the hardest was the Rand study’s conclusion that Putin viewed NATO’s “presence on Russia’s borders as something approaching a clear and present danger to his nation’s security.” The debate that followed hashed its way through Congress and the NATO hierarchy with an agreement, in principle, to send additional forces to the Baltic States. But before any troops could be deployed, the Sino-Littoral Alliance War erupted and the subsequent worldwide economic crash eliminated the funding. Years later, little had been done to bolster NATO’s eastern flank. However, Russia had fared even worse when the two traditional sources of her national income, arms and oil, dropped to record lows.

  She closed the file and slumped back in her chair; none of this was helping her explain Fedorin’s aggressive conduct. If anything, Russia’s economy was in a recession and open warfare is expensive—simply put, they couldn’t afford a war. Even when she tried to look at the situation through Fedorin’s “zero sum game” approach to diplomacy, it still didn’t make any sense. Try as she might, Joanna couldn’t justify her hypothesis that Russia was seriously considering, or actively implementing, a plan to attack the three smaller NATO nations simultaneously with an invasion of Ukraine and Georgia. “NATO would respond,” she said to herself. “We would respond, and then nobody wins.”

  Staring at the map, her eyes followed the line of the Russian border from Estonia all the way down to Georgia. She was momentarily distracted by the slight dip around the tiny country of Moldova. Joanna sat upright; Moldova was split pretty much down the middle between pro-Europe and pro-Russia factions. The Russia-leaning group regained power in the 2016 election and civil unrest had been slowly brewing ever since. Then it dawned on her. If the Baltic States, Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia could all be swept up in one swift stroke, Fedorin would re-establish the western boundary of the former Soviet Union. The Russian Federation would then have the buffer he claimed was desperately needed to keep NATO at bay.

  But it always came back to NATO’s commitment to the Baltic States, more accurately the United States’ commitment, as most of the other NATO nations were suffering more from the global economic downturn. For his audacious plan to even have a chance, Fedorin would have to find a way to isolate NATO from the U.S. The Russian president had often used saber rattling to buttress his response to perceived alliance hostile intent, to include the threat of nuclear weapons. Fedorin’s recurring reference to Russia’s nuclear arms as the first line of defense disturbed many diplomats and national leaders, but this was just a cranky, unhappy Russian’s babbling, right? Joanna then remembered an interview with Fedorin in the Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper. In the article, Fedorin had quoted his predecessor as he outlined his “defensive” strategy to counter the increasing threat to Russia from NATO, both conventional and nuclear—“If a fight’s inevitable, you must strike first.”

  “You must strike first,” she mumbled. Suddenly, a cold shiver of awareness sped down her spine.

  “My God!” she said gasping. “That’s what it’s for!”

  She grabbed the phone and punched Lowell’s number. The secretary answered after the second ring. “Evangeline, it’s Joanna, is my husband still in the Oval Office? He is? Good. Please don’t let him leave until I get there. Thanks.”

  With one hand she slammed the phone’s handset while fumbling for a notepad with the other. She hastily scribbled a few notes and then logged out of her account. Before the screen had gone black she was already jogging for the stairs. After that it was a very short walk to the Oval Office.

  * * *

  Mrs. McDowell took one look at Joanna’s face and motioned to the door. The secretary had seen that expression many times before and knew Joanna’s urgency was authentic. So had the Secret Service agent who opened the door without a single word. Joanna gave him a stiff nod as she strode into the office.

  As she walked into the Oval Office, she saw Lowell with Dwight Sellers and Bill Hyland huddled around the president’s desk. All shared the same troubled expression. Hardy heard the door open, looked up and saw her as she walked in. He rose and greeted his wife with a thin smile.

  “Good evening, Joanna. I must apologize for being waylaid, but there has been a troubling development with Russia.” No sooner had he spoken than he saw her wince and understood she already knew. “Ahh, I see you’ve read the NATO message concerning the attack on the Norwegian boat. Brings back fond memories, eh my dear?”

  Patterson ignore
d her husband’s poor attempt at humor, and got straight to the point. “Lowell, I think I know what the Russians are trying to do.”

  Both Sellers’s and Hyland’s heads twisted instantly in her direction. Hardy leaned against his desk, folded his arms, and said, “I’m listening.”

  Marching over to the desk, she asked him to bring up the map she’d just been looking at. Joanna then pointed out where the Russian units were being positioned for the supposed exercise, highlighting the fact that it was largely Belarusian army units that were holding the center against NATO assets in Poland. Next, she summarized the Rand report and brought up the list of recent hybrid warfare-like events in Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova.

  “Now, if Russia were to use the six deployed armies, over half of her standing ground forces, in a sudden surprise attack, they would almost certainly overwhelm all six countries before NATO could even mobilize. The hardest nut to crack would be Ukraine, but I think Russia is allocating at least two and a half armies against her. That’s more than four to one odds, based on troop levels alone.”

  “But Dr. Patterson, there is very little air and naval participation in this exercise,” countered Hyland. “Combined arms training is the hallmark of Russian command and control exercises. This suggests the exercise is more of Fedorin’s ‘strategic messaging’ to us and the NATO Alliance.”

  “Normally I’d agree with you, Bill, but in past spur-of-the-moment exercises there were far more scenario events that called for air, air defense, and naval involvement—even if the number of participating units was on the low side. Resolve-2021 appears to be unusually ground-force heavy, uniquely so.”

  “Concur. And that’s why I believe this is just a stern message, to us in particular.”

  As Sellers listened he nodded his head slightly, he knew where Joanna was going. “But Bill, moving well over a hundred thousand troops, and their equipment, is very costly. You said earlier today that the Russian economy is sliding deeper into recession, and the debt burden has skyrocketed in the past four years. From all that we’ve heard, this exercise wasn’t part of the annual training cycle; the Russian MOD hadn’t budgeted for it. Normally, supplies for this type of deployment are pre-stocked. This time they weren’t, and some unit commanders have requested permission to dip into wartime reserve stocks to support it. That’s a very expensive message, isn’t it?”