Arctic Gambit

by Larry Bond

  “I see,” replied Jerry, a slight grin on his face. “Well, you can assure the XO that this is still Captain Weiss’s boat, and that I have no desire to take over.”

  Gibson smiled. “I didn’t figure it would take you long to see through that smokescreen.”

  “Nope, it’s pretty obvious. But that just means he’s a good executive officer. You can also tell him I appreciate his tact. You’re the perfect messenger, Master Chief.”

  “Mr. Segerson thought as much,” chuckled the COB. “But, shipmate to shipmate, sir, what are your intentions?”

  Jerry grew serious, determined. The question was a little unsettling, but proper. And he owed this man a truthful answer. “My sole concern is that we complete this mission successfully, and I’ll do whatever I believe is necessary to make that happen. And it’s not just because the president of the United States personally put me onboard this boat.” He paused as he pointed in the direction of Toledo’s lifeless hulk. “A good friend and his crew lie over there, Master Chief. I will not let their sacrifice be in vain. And if that means I sometimes have to be a little rough on Captain Weiss’s ego, then so be it.”

  FLASH

  040900Z AUG 21

  FROM: USS JIMMY CARTER (SSN 23)

  TO: CNO WASHINGTON DC

  INFO: COMSUBFOR, SUBRON TWELVE

  TOP SECRET//SCI

  SUBJ: MISSION STATUS REPORT

  1) SURVEY OF DRAGON LAUNCH BASE DEFENSES BY UUVS COMPLETED. BASED ON PERISCOPE AND PASSIVE SONAR OBSERVATION, WEAPON LOADING HAS LIKELY BEGUN.

  2) SURFACE UNITS AT SITE INCLUDES ICEBREAKER, TRANSPORT BARGE, SMALL DIVING SUPPORT CRAFT. SUBMARINES BELGOROD AND LOSHARIK ARE PRESENT, IDENTIFIED THROUGH PASSIVE SONAR ANALYSIS. ASSUMED TO BE SUPPORTING DIVING AND LOADING EVOLUTION.

  3) DEFENSES INCLUDE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED PMK-2 MINE BARRIER, RECENTLY ADDED NETWORK OF SEVER BOTTOM-MOUNTED ACOUSTIC SENSORS, SUPPORTED BY KA-27M HELICOPTERS.

  4) PROCEEDING AS PLANNED. INTEND TO PENETRATE MINE AND ACOUSTIC BARRIERS USING UUVS. EXPECT TO COMMENCE OPERATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS.

  BT

  4 August 2021

  0500 Eastern Daylight Time

  National Military Command Center, The Pentagon

  Arlington, Virginia

  * * *

  Captain Tony Monyihan, USN, had the 2000–0800 watch in the National Command Authority’s monitoring center. His job was to oversee a small group of civilian and military personnel as they kept track of not only the positions and status of all U.S. military forces, but of allied and adversary militaries as well.

  A movie screen–sized display showed a map of the world, divided into operating areas and dotted with symbols for not only navy, but army, air force, and marine units. Foreign units were similarly marked, but with the three-letter country designation below the unit’s name.

  The captain had a big-picture view of the United States’ armed forces, but that didn’t mean he always knew what was going on. He could see where all the units were, and had a pretty good idea of where they were going. But he didn’t necessarily know exactly why.

  Monyihan hadn’t seen a general sortie order in the message traffic, but he knew that subs were leaving port individually, always at night, and when weather or satellite windows hid their movements. The U.S. Navy had fourteen active submarine squadrons, SUBRONS, organized into five Submarine Groups, with a total of seventy-four boats.

  Under normal circumstances, Monyihan would see twenty to twenty-five subs, one-third of the force, at sea, on patrol at any given time. Another third would be in port, training and performing routine maintenance on their complex systems. The last third would be in refit, in dry dock, or with vital machinery dismantled for upgrades or repair.

  His latest count showed over forty submarines at sea. Not only attack boats and cruise missile submarines, but also ballistic missile submarines were sortieing out of the regular schedule. He couldn’t tell where the “boomers” were going. Their patrol areas were not displayed on the map. That information was too sensitive even for this space.

  At this rate, soon the only submarines left in port would be those in dry dock or extended maintenance. Seeing that many attack boats at sea piqued his curiosity, but extra SSBNs going to sea made him consider buying canned goods and bottled water. When he saw that carrier strike groups were beginning to deploy out of sequence, he knew the Russian crisis was getting really serious.

  Were those “snap exercises” that Russia had announced really just practice drills? Apparently, the Joint Chiefs of Staff didn’t think so. War with Russia, a nuclear war, had been the boogeyman of U.S. national security for sixty-five years. He hoped he wasn’t watching its opening moves.

  17

  UNWELCOME COMPANY

  4 August 2021

  0700 Eastern Daylight Time

  CNN International Affairs

  * * *

  “The Russian military exercises in Europe have been harshly criticized by the Hardy administration as ‘designed to intimidate Europe’ and as ‘a rehearsal for a full-scale invasion.’ President Fedorin personally responded to the administration’s comments in a speech before a pro-Russian rally in Moscow today, saying that the ‘West can draw whatever conclusion it likes. Russia’s armed forces are ready to carry out the will of its people.’

  “Historically, America’s response to an adversary’s military exercises is limited to rhetoric, plus careful observation to learn what they can of a potential opponent’s capabilities. This time, though, there are indications that President Hardy and the Joint Chiefs of Staff may be considering more direct action.

  “There have been rumors that the Pentagon is planning its own ‘snap drills,’ mobilizing and moving several rapid-reaction forces to Europe. In addition to increased activity at several military bases, most notably naval installations, the president and many national security officials have suddenly canceled, or rescheduled, long-standing appointments over the last few days.

  “The famous ‘Pizza Index,’ using the amount of take-out pizza ordered by Pentagon offices as a sign of long hours, and thus of impending action, has become less reliable in recent years. A survey today of Arlington pizzerias showed only a small increase of ten to twenty percent over usual, compared to the doubling of orders before both Gulf wars and the Sino-Littoral Alliance War. A Pentagon source said that standing orders now forbid ordering take-out from nearby pizza places, and that to accurately measure late-night hours in Washington, one would have to poll every type of take-out cuisine…”

  4 August 2021

  0715 Eastern Daylight Time

  Oval Office, The White House

  Washington, D.C.

  * * *

  The message came while President Hardy was already receiving a briefing by Director of National Intelligence Peakes about non-military Russian activities. The large-scale military exercises were worrisome enough, but covert actions worldwide were on the rise. Peakes had started with news of another assassination, this time of a German counterterrorism official. Several different extremist organizations were claiming credit, but it didn’t really fit any of their normal operating patterns.

  Cyber attacks had increased as well, often demanding ransom for padlocked data, but they included an alarming number of infrastructure organizations: electric and transport utilities especially. A smaller number of sabotage incidents added to the overall pattern.

  “Ray, will these really disrupt a country’s infrastructure or economy that much?” asked Hardy.

  “No, Mr. President,” Peakes answered, “not at their current level, but look at how they’re spread all over Europe. The cyber warfare people at both NSA and CIA believe that the Russians are demonstrating their capability, or European vulnerability, to these attacks. These incidents could easily be used as a coercive bargaining chip if the Russians make demands.”

  “You mean a threat,” Hardy replied, “which is what we believe the Russians will do, once the balloon goes up.”

&nbs
p; “They may not have to even go that far,” General Schiller remarked. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs had already briefed the president on the status of the American exercise, Operation Fortify. “I’m very concerned about the Polish defense minster’s remarks this morning. If they aren’t prepared to—”

  Secretary of State Lloyd cut in. “He only said that full mobilization depended on NATO showing a united front. And he’s right. Germany and France are the big players. The smaller countries have said quite clearly that they’re waiting to see how Berlin and Paris respond. And those two countries are looking to us. The U.S. has always been the de facto leader of NATO. The sooner we announce Fortify, the better.”

  “I agree it will encourage our allies, but I’m concerned that it will also increase international tensions.” Bill Hyland looked genuinely worried. “I’ve looked at our post–World War II history, and this situation is every bit as unstable as the Berlin Blockade or the Cuban Missile Crisis.”

  “You’re afraid we’ll end up unintentionally in a shooting war,” Hardy concluded.

  “Of course,” Hyland responded. “Fedorin doesn’t want war any more than we do. But he’s seeing how close to the edge he can go. In fact, he’ll hang out over the edge and wave at us. He’s willing to take risks because he believes that’s where the big payoffs are. We can’t know how far he’s willing to go, and he obviously doesn’t know everything we’re doing.”

  Hardy was listening, but frowning. “Come to the point,” he demanded.

  “The world had come through East-West confrontations before, but later scholarship has shown us that we were always closer to disaster than was known by either side at the time. The danger is not from our or Fedorin’s intentions, but rather unforeseen interactions or mishaps. And the more pieces both sides have in play, the greater the chance of an accident or incident. At best, it will cost lives. At worst, it literally means the end of the world.” The national security advisor sat back, looking a little drained.

  Hardy looked over at Joanna, sitting a little to one side. Bill Hyland had been on Joanna’s staff while she was national security advisor under President Myles. His specialty was nuclear strategy. He’d written several books on international relations and military force that were brilliant, and when she’d recommended the relatively junior staffer as her replacement, Hardy and his people had thought him an excellent choice. Youth was not necessarily a down check on the list of qualifications. It was an extremely demanding job and younger bodies usually could handle the stress and lack of sleep better. Hyland had been working twenty-hour days.

  The president sighed. “Bill, that risk is going to be there, no matter what we do. We all know that we’re using live ammunition, but so are they, and at the moment, Fedorin seems almost eager to shoot.” He paused, then added, “I think the job of every president is to understand the risks each crisis presents as best he can, and do whatever he can to reduce those risks.”

  “Mr. President, I believe that sending those troops to Europe will escalate the current crisis. It may be enough to demonstrate that we’re able to send them, or even just announce the conditions…”

  “That’s enough, Bill.” Hardy’s tone was firm. “Our allies need to see concrete actions even more than the Russians do.”

  Secretary Lloyd agreed. “The situation in Europe right now is extremely unbalanced. Our presence will give the Russians pause. Their chance of success goes down when a determined U.S. presence is factored into their planning.”

  White House Chief of Staff Sellers opened the door without knocking. “Mr. President, gentlemen and lady, Admiral Hughes has new information…”

  “Please, send him in,” Hardy urged.

  Hughes entered, looking rushed. As he sat, he announced quietly, “We’ve received word from Jimmy Carter.”

  Everyone sat up and leaned forward, and Hughes passed a copy of the message to each person. It had been sent two hours earlier.

  Hardy took the time to read it twice, then announced, “There’s our timeline for announcing Fortify. At the same time that I report the success of Overcharge, we’ll announce the plan for reinforcing Europe.”

  “That should settle Senator Emmers’s hash,” muttered Lloyd.

  Hardy nodded. “What I want it to do is set President Fedorin back a few steps. Give him pause for second, maybe even third thoughts.”

  Hyland looked alarmed, almost panicked. “Mr. President, Overcharge is exactly the kind of incident that could trigger a nuclear catastrophe. That launch site has to be his personal cause. A deliberate attack by us gives him precisely the excuse he needs. But to be honest, I can’t predict how he will react, because a successful attack will come as a shock to the Russian leadership. Even if it fails, it will enrage him.”

  “God forbid,” General Schiller added, scowling.

  Hyland was insistent. “The more unusual the circumstance, the harder it is to predict how your adversary will respond. Fedorin could easily see it as a personal challenge, and feel compelled to respond or suffer a monumental loss of face.”

  “The Russian population doesn’t even know about the facility,” Schiller retorted.

  “They will after President Hardy announces it!” Hyland’s voice wasn’t shouting, but it was a level of intensity rarely heard in the Oval Office, and it was clear from his tone that he thought the announcement was a mistake. “And regardless of whether the attack succeeds or not, we will have committed an act of war.”

  The chief of naval operations countered, “Placing those mines so they could attack and sink one of our subs in international waters is also an act of war.”

  “Fool! You can’t see the difference between Toledo’s loss, which was completely hidden from view, and the public humiliation of the Russian president.” At this point, Hyland was shouting, hands balled into fists.

  “Bill, that’s enough,” Hardy ordered sharply in a raised voice. Hyland turned to look at him, and seemed to be composing a response, but the president cut him off. “Mister, you are relieved.”

  Chief of Staff Sellers had opened the door to the Oval Office a crack at the sound of raised voices, and Hardy motioned him into the room. “Dwight, Mr. Hyland is no longer the national security advisor. Please have the Secret Service collect all his badges and personal electronics, then escort him to someplace where he can rest under observation. He is to remain incommunicado until I say otherwise.”

  Hardy had been speaking to Sellers, but had kept his gaze fixed on the now former national security advisor. Hyland stood up a little straighter, but in the process also seemed to shrink. He nodded his understanding and turned to leave, then dithered for a moment about whether to take his notepad and tablet. He finally left them behind and walked slowly toward the door.

  He stopped halfway and turned to face Hardy. “I will pray that I am wrong, Mr. President, and that your plan succeeds. Thank you for allowing me to serve in your administration, if only for a short time.” A moment later, he was gone, and Sellers closed the door.

  “Incommunicado?” Lloyd asked.

  “He knows about Overcharge,” Hardy answered. “Bill said it himself. We can’t predict someone’s actions when under severe stress. What if he went to the press?”

  Lloyd’s eyebrow rose, and he nodded his understanding. Hardy continued, “It won’t be for long. The Secret Service will park him in a safe house where he can catch up on his sleep. If Carter’s message is accurate, Overcharge will be very public very soon.”

  Hardy also looked over to the first lady. Her expression was completely neutral, a mask. The others in the room all knew that she had recommended Hyland for the NSA post. But if they assumed it was a silent apology to his wife, they were wrong.

  “Joanna, I need your help. Will you please take over as national security advisor?”

  “What!?” Lloyd half rose out of his chair. The others, not as senior, stifled their own outbursts, but wore expressions varying from surprised to stunned.

  Hardy wa
ved him down. “Interim only, Mr. Secretary. This is not a good time to lose a key member of our national security team. She certainly is qualified for the job.”

  Lloyd sat back down, deep in thought. General Schiller and Admiral Hughes conversed in whispers, while DNI Peakes spoke the obvious. “It’s unprecedented, and the potential for conflict of interest…”

  “Will no doubt be investigated at great lengths by numerous congressional committees,” Hardy completed. “However, I plead urgent necessity.”

  Lloyd nodded, but observed, “You’re already receiving her advice, which has been very good, by the way,” with a nod toward Patterson, “but there’s no need to make it formal.”

  DNI Peakes responded. “That’s not true, Mr. Secretary. Unless she’s officially the NSA, she can’t have access to all the intelligence sources that the position of national security advisor allows. The President has been walking a fine line on this, but without a formal NSA, that line becomes blurred. Unless there is someone officially occupying the NSA box in the wiring diagram, information can’t flow, by law.”

  “What about Bill’s deputy?” Lloyd asked.

  “He’s busy enough already,” Joanna answered, joining the discussion. “My husband is right…”

  “I love those words,” Hardy interjected.

  Patterson shot Hardy a look. “Sandy Hall’s an excellent deputy, but he will cease to be so if he’s suddenly promoted to the top spot. And we’ll have to find someone to take Sandy’s job. That means we’ll have two critical positions operating at less than full efficiency. If I take the NSA post, he provides continuity.”

  Hardy turned to the two military officers. “Do you have any reservations on the appointment, Chairman?”

  General Schiller, senior of the two officers, spoke for both of them. “The national security advisor is not in the chain of command. As far as we’re concerned, nothing has changed.”