To John

by Kim Itae

  'Hang on a sec. This is so unnatural. Did I misunderstand something? Is American economy going really well and strong?'

  'Google Takes Over NASA Airport in Silicon Valley' http://www.industryweek.com/technology/google-takes-over-nasa-airport-silicon-valley

  'Ok. Google is doing well and very rich, so they buy an airport. But the thing I wondered was NASA had to sell its airport. Enough budget? Since when? This can be my homework tomorrow.'

  'Then again, how much they have to spend to keep dollar strong like this? That is more scary to me. This is not a right way to keep your economy healthy, is it?'

  'Anyway, Samsung started trading RBM. Shall I wait for 1-2 years? This is so disgusting. Wait until the pathogen get weakened by itself? Then again, I just like to see what is going on. I have to write about this at least. I miss last spring so much. I bought a bomber jacket for Henry from Mr. Porter. 1,000 pounds. I had no feeling of the cash as usual.'

  13 Mar 2015

  'US accuses UK for doing what? US is trying to borrow money from Europe because the interest rate is lawer. US cannot borrow more money from China because they owe too much. They lost credibility. Now US accuses UK for placating China?'

  'Moeny lending is the key business of money. Basically banking. If US lose that business to Europe, that's the end of money business. Raise your interest rate, please. This current exchange rate is temporary until RMB comes in. Do it. Raise your interest rate.'

  "Morning John, a bit tiring. So we do three or four hours a day and out. Hit and Run. Rest of time, you can do whatever you like to do leisurely."

  'I just heard from the Radio program called Desert Island. A black American lawyer, Brian Stevenson said 1 in 5 black boys goes to jail. Is this true? US accuses of UK doing what again?'

  "Another hit. Very quick though. Home Run, you say?"

  "Not bad as a first testing:)"

  'Caution against strong dollar. Why? According to KCIF, it disturbs the market. Why? What's exactly wrong with strong dollar? It's not good for Americans when they travel abroad?'

  'Why US cannot join Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank? Too much debt already? Not qualified as a founding member, I bet. Just be happy with your strong dollar. Stay away from the business.'

  'I don't know why I twitted that kind of shit. But I mean it. If they raise the interest rate now, they might not survive this time. I definitely thought that. I still think they will see the consequences within half a year.'

  'Accusing instead of attacking means the weakness.'

  'My rough thinking, insecure expression in my eyes, and you are watching me. That must be love like a war.' (A Korean song)

  "Happy Mother's day on this Sunday. Your mum will be proud of you. If there is anybody who didn't make enough money for that little ring, tonight is the last chance. As you might know, I do not fancy selling at this time."

  'I met Berry Moore, the economist, in the pub. I asked him

  'Will America raise their interest rate?'

  'Yes. But when? They have been lowering intertest rate to stimulate the economy. They lowered and they lowered. But when? When is the thing.'

  'Very nice to see you Sir Moore.'

  14 Mar 2015

  'My verdict: Strong dollar -> US stock collapse -> The Second Great Depression

  Reason

  1. Strong dollar at this time is caused by the weak economy. The weak economy comes from two dying income sources.: weapon industries & shale oil industries.

  2. This strong dollar is apparently out of control of Fed.

  3. The amount of debt: 3tn 2years ago. Now?

  Backing up

  1. Low profits(farming) + too much loans ie debt (bubbles) caused the 1st Great Depression.

  2. 1st GD got started or expressed from stock market crash of October 1929

  * I misunderstood the weakened GBP at 2008. 2008, strong dollars was the point. The 2008 Credit Crunch. USD got strong since Nov 2007. Strong dollar was a sign of credit crunch, not the byproduct. That's why Fed is so reluctant to raise interest rate. But what is forcing them to do it? That is very funny. The only possibility is that US is in stagflation. Stagnation and inflation at the same time. Indeed, a dilemma of economy policy.

  1970s stagflation -> Nixon shock (out of gold standard, turn dollar into fiat money)

  2015 stagflation -> what shock?

  **another factor: oil supply & price

  Who can get benefit from higher interest rate? Money lenders, ie, banks. That's why US failed Deutche and Santander the other day. Credit Suisse got upset by US regulations.

  But the basic problem is their productivity not the policy. US should change the structure of their industries. What can they do instead of making missiles?

  Another fact during the depression was the migration of people. American-Koreans were coming back already 10 years ago. Ah well....

  ExxonMobil: Not sure but the price of ExxonMobil stock might be quite synchronized with the dollar in inverse proportion. Dollar up, Stock price down. Walmart the same. Not black Monday, it's black Thursday. Starts from US not China. So, excluding US from the business is for sure. Like Ebola... Is there such a thing called a economic quarantine? I like to think more sophisticatedly. But with possible infection, you have to be quick and rough. Sophistication? Forget it. At least, in England, you can have vaccination for free. In America, you have to pay $169 for a simple MMR. The same. Companies started borrowing money from Outside of America and tried very hard for tax evasion.'

  "John, what shall we do? Back to hell or heaven on earth? I really have no idea. Fed seems to have no control. It might do the free fall thing. Then again, Janet is quite heavy... Anyway, did you get that little tear drop?"

  "I got something else. My mum just likes flowers. Anyway, I think, we have to watch. Don't you think? In either way, you can make it. That's what you call dealing."

  "Ok. Understood. In that case, codes will be combined. Tricky though."

  "John, may I ask you a question?"

  "Yes?"

  "Why does Fed have to raise interest rate anyway? What is the reason? They lowered the interest rate to stimulate the economy."

  "Simple. It didn't work. So they try the opposite. Don't you think?"

  "You are talking like me. That sounds too stupid. Can it be real?"

  "You will see."

  "Shit, what shall we do? What shall we do?"

  "Ride on. One or two American stocks on the side way. Water park, remember?"

  "Yes, but I still don't get it. Something is missing here... Also I do not want to miss the sharp turn. Actually I have been waiting for it for the last one and a half year."

  "Just be alerted."

  "I am not a professional like you. I need an emotion. Also I hate my feet strangled in the mud when others are flying."

  That was the conversation with John.

  "Carl, what should I do?"

  "Fuck it."

  "I knew you would say that. And I know what you mean. But how?"

  "In every way."

  "Are you sure?"

  "Yes. I am in New York."

  "John, I will not combine the codes. 1. too late. 2. cannot mess up the first 3. Fed will not raise the interest rate."

  "Are you sure?"

  "Quite sure."

  Ana said that to John but she had to ask herself again. Fed might raise it. They might not. Ana thought they should not. Then, there is a thought about paradigm shift. Among the five big companies, 1 and 3 are Chinese. RMB is coming within 2 years. All these about Fed's move will be old stories. No one will care about what they do or what they say. That is how the history goes. The last flicking of the heart bit. Very agressive and then all stop. The end. The silence and the peace. You've done your best and, there is time that you feel you just have to let it go. That spirit, which has done its best on this earth. Then there is no sadness. All understood.

  15 Mar 2015

  'Oye, compuper! Do you think you are a kind of mother or someth
ing? Why you are not working today? Come on. Normal day. Even some real mothers are working today. I saw one on the telly. She must be a mother. She is working on Sunday morning kitchen. So, what do you think you are? I have been thinking about you, you know? You are getting old. You admit that, right? Do you want an early retirement without proper pension package?'

  'Thanks! We are old friends, aren't we? I will not call you compuper. It never occured to me. You might need a name. Shall I call you Anthony, differentiating the name from that poodle? Sometimes I feel that you might have very delicate but accurate fingers. You act before I do, don't you? You must not freak me out too often though.'

  'Anthony, you are way more sexy than I thought. Such a swave! We can have a great day! Mother's day is over.'

  3rd Week March 2015

  16 Mar 2015

  From KCIF

  '미국 재무장관 Lew,“정부부채한도 다다름에 따라 디폴트 막기 위해 특별대책 강구”

  US Secretary of the Treasury J. Lew said,

  "we are looking for emergency measures in order to avoid default as we reached to the government debt limit."

  'One of causes for the 2008 Credit Crunch was the inconsistent government policy.

  US government has lowered the interest rate to make the economy steady. For example, a patient with a stroke. Anyway, with a patient like that, you have to be firm. You can follow this or that of paitent's complaint. You have to be absolutely firm with the dose of medication. I feel dizzy, I have a headache, I hate medication, I want to go home... If you expect another stroke very soon, you have no other choice as a doctor.

  From KCIF

  '미국은 15일 부채한도 시한 넘겨 16일부터 비상조치'

  'US passed the deadline of debt limit on 15th. From 16th, activate emergency measures.'

  'This is funny. No news in NBCnews. Is there a possibility of panic? Is that why they shut up the mouth? Or they got so used to it.'

  'The emergency debt limit measurers was started today on 16th. Not a plan anymore. $18.1 trillion. Wa...'

  'Interesting. What can be the measures? Quick fix. Still funny. Why do they do the sh sh thing? No news in Bloombergbusiness either. Something fish...'

  "John, did the news break?"

  "Yap."

  "All night long or all week long?"

  "Ja... I will hand it over."

  'Think. Instead of sucking money out of the old and the disabled. Think.'

  'Is Fed belonging to the government or a separate government?'

  'It's a shame that Obama is a professor of law not economics. He doesn't know how much they can make a day with just one word. A pity. No wonder that they are heading for another government shutdown. This time, possibly, default, too. 16-day last time. This time? Shall we bet? Oh no...'

  GMT 20:45

  6 hours ago, CNBC 'US debt to hit ceiling again, and this time it could be worse.'

  4 hours ago, The Times 'US treasury looks to box of tricks as it hits debt limit.'

  17 Mar 2015

  'Europeans defy US to join China-led development bank

  France, Germany and Italy have all agreed to follow Britain’s lead and join a China-led international development bank, according to European officials, delivering a blow to US efforts to keep leading western countries out of the new institution.'(FT Breaking News)

  'What a delightful news! Then again, who wants to hang out with $18.1 tn debter? Too spooky.'

  "We can make a breakthrough."

  'Young Americans turn to tea? Drink coffee. It's cheaper. Or come back to your fatherland.'

  'So weird that there is no news about hitting the debt ceiling. Deadly quiet before the typhoon. Or maybe not. Everybody knows and I am the last one to know as usual. There was an IMF warning 2013, this time, no warning either. No news, no warning... What is going on?'

  From bbc Oct 2013

  'stop paying the money it owed US Treasury bond holders. Investors, such as the Chinese government and pension funds.'

  'Oct 2013, the debt was around $3tn. Mar 2015, the debt is $18.1tn. The US debt got 6 time for just one and a half year.'

  'The debt to China is still $1.3tn. This means China did not buy any more US bonds since last Oct 2013. US is excluded from Asian Development Bank funding. No wonder.'

  From wikipedia 'sovereign default'

  'If potential lenders or bond purchasers begin to suspect that a government may fail to pay back its debt, they may demand a high interest rate in compensation for the risk of default. A dramatic rise in the interest rate faced by a government due to fear that it will fail to honor its debt is sometimes called a sovereign debt crisis.'

  'I think this explains the current strong dollar and the Fed's fiddling with the interest rate. This is why they are so quiet. The pusher of the interest rate is China. China does not suspect? They perfectly well know. They will sell the bonds at one go, at a proper time. When? Before the next government shutdown. Pretty close. Or when they are ready. Asian Developement Bank and CIPS(China International Payment System).'

  'Declaration of insolvency is still the answer. No way out.'

  'Still the question is where the 15tn came from. China did not buy any more.'

  From RT

  'US blow through $18.1tn debt limit.'

  18 Mar 2015

  From KCIF

  'US, 17% decrease of new housing. 17% decrease within a month'

  'FOMC. Economists are expecting to get rid of the word 'patient'

  'Be patient with what? If they are not patient, what will happen? Who are they talking to? China or US companies?'

  'It's like asking 'Would you like to die with honor, or without honor?''

  'April 15 is a new dealine? I remember the countdown one and a half year ago.'

  'Still the key point is $18.1tn debt. How can they pay back without making another war? Vietnam was made by US exactly by the same reason. This time there is no apparent enemy like Vietcom. The cold war is over. Where is your world enemy?'

  'Just amazing...'

  'Don't you have a mere £200,000, Sir? Such a shame. Then again, maybe you don't have to waste your precious tax. Wait for one afternoon.'

  'Dalio warns Fed of 1937-style rate risk

  Bridgewater founder say policy shift could have unintended consequences (FT)'

  What can be unintended consequences?

  'FCA bans trader over Libor rigging'

  Libor ring a bell...

  'Wang Qishan visits US'

  He is quite well known. His purpose?

  'Dollar rally needs US growth underpinning

  Some say it is fuelled by diverging central bank policy not a strengthening economy '

  I was one of the Somes.

  'Dalio warns Fed of 1937-style rate risk

  The US Federal Reserve risks causing a 1937-style stock market slump when it finally moves to raise interest rates, one of the world’s most powerful hedge fund managers has warned.'

  Homework was done three days ago.

  'Wang Qishan visits US'

  He is quite well known. His purpose? He is originally an economist. He goes to US. China is not happy with US policy. That's it.

  'I guess China wants their debt payed back rather than blow away. They do not need a gesture. They want US to get healthy rather than have another stroke. So, they can get their debt back. Interest rate is like Oxytocin injection. It will shoot up blood pressure instantly as it contracts the muscle. You need an opposite. Blood thinner like aspirin 0.75mg a day. What can be the equivalent to Aspirin? No more drug. Improving one's physical constitution. It takes time. Of course.'

  'So, this messy US economy policy is the byproduct of Democrats and Republicans. The politicians. The more important thing is who is holding the neck of China? The internationalization of RMB. If they can make it quicker, for example, even 3 month, 1.3tn can be nothing. Get off the fence and make up your mind. You can say that to Yankees.'

  'As for today 18/03/2015, 1 CNY
= 0.160544 USD. This will be a historic record. Why? Haha... So ridiculous to make me angry and laugh.'

  From Wikipedia data,

  'Among Renminbi hubs outside China, or List of RMB Bilateral Swap Agreements, there is no USA. What is going on? The third world war was started 2009 as China started internationalizing RMB. The war is still going on... Right now.'

  'Fed drops pledge to be ‘patient’ on rate rises

  The Federal Reserve has dropped its pledge to be “patient” before raising interest rates, freeing its hands to lift official borrowing costs for the first time in nearly a decade.'(FT)

  'So?'

  The reason of the current strong dollar is not what Fed is saying. It's the amount of dollars which China or Japan are reserving. Maybe this is the last scene of Fed. The final stage? Possible.

  For example, the above news was broken at GMT PM 6:18. Normally if Fed says they will raise the interest, the dollar should rock high. This time. Only the chart shows. The opposite. Euro the same. Why? I want a tutor to answer my question.

  (GBPUSD 2 screenshots. EURUSD 1 screenshot included)

  19 Mar 2015

  From KCIF

  '금년말 기준금리 1.125%에서 0.625%로, 내년말 2.5%에서 1.875%로 하향전망

  No need to be patient. Fed will lower the interest rest from 1.125% to 0.625% at the end of this year.'

  'Only if there is no default until 15th Apr...'

  'And great. Anyway, I have zero patience.'

  Softly-softly message from the Fed(FT Asia)

  'You are killing me softly with your song... This should be the theme song for next presidential election.'

  US Fed frees its hand to raise rates(FT morning)

  'Basically, it says we don't know. Do what you like to do. A wise decision as they do not want to be blamed for nothing.'

  'Hang on. Fed had been holding the horse by the reins for the last 10 years. Now they what? Common sensically, what can happen to the horse and the jockey right in the middle of a racing? Horse race like Grand National? For the jockey, god helps him or her. For the horse, once it tastes the freedom, it's hard to retrain it. It becomes useless as a racing horse. Ask a horse specialist. If you try to rein it again, it goes mental with bubbles in its mouth.'

  Why markets cheered Fed statement?