Analog SFF, May 2009
Page 21
* * * *
Stan,
I'd like to comment on Jeffrey Kooistra's thoughts on the current “energy crisis.” I too, waited in gas lines in the 1970s and once again I see that our efforts at conservation are motivated by dollars and cents when we could have had the sense to change our energy diet back then and conserve our dollars in the bargain.
For the last seven years I have become passionate about living sustainably and have committed a lot of my time and energy toward education and reducing waste and carbon emissions. To that end, my wife and I both own clean burning hybrid vehicles. She bought the 60MPG Honda Insight in 2000 and I found a used 2006 Ford Escape Hybrid SUV in 2008 that gets over 30MPG on average. (And yes Jeffrey, it took me five months to sell off my old gas guzzling SUV!) I have built a solar augmented heating system for my workshop that uses propane and wood as backup. I also installed solar collectors on our home for our domestic hot water that offsets 75% of fossil fuel consumption annually. I also organize and present public talks on energy awareness and sustainability. So clearly I have become quite well informed on the issues.
The point that I think Jeffrey missed is that he is still embracing the current paradigm of centralized power generation. From that premise he postulates gigantic solar arrays as unrealistic—when in fact such arrays are being constructed on a slightly smaller scale all the time all over the world. A good source for world news about solar energy deployment is: www.solarbuzz.com
He goes from his premise that large scale solar is unrealistic to his somewhat viable proposal that nuclear is a more reasonable option. I have no significant argument with nuclear power in principle—it certainly has provided relatively safe, and relatively clean power for decades throughout the civilized world. The problem I have with implementing nuclear in the US is that it will take too long and cost too much. It also remains a political hot potato that will likely defer large-scale deployment of nuclear energy implementation indefinitely.
So one alternative is to incentivize all alternatives to fossil fuel at all scales. For instance, Germany implemented a feed-in tariff law some years ago that made it very sensible for small businesses and individuals to install solar panels on their roofs and in their fields. The utility pays a significant premium to these micro generators for the power they feed into the grid, and the premium is funded by a small tariff added to the bill of all rate payers. The owners of these small systems are rewarded by maintaining their generation capacity at peak performance. The return on investment is short enough that it makes good sense and the sudden surge in solar installation in Germany caused a global spike in the cost of solar panels a while back. I believe that Germany now has the highest solar energy generation capacity per capita than any other country as a result of this very successful policy. Yes, the percentage of power produced by solar in Germany is still below 4%, but it is a significant paradigm shift. Some states here in the US are seriously looking at legislation based on the German law, including (by the time this goes to print) the state of Maine where I live.
But my main point here is that centralized power generation is an obsolete paradigm that does not serve us well. By embracing decentralized power we level the playing field and allow anyone from an individual homeowner on up to become an energy producer. This empowers individuals to take direct action and become micro utilities for profit. Decentralized power increases our energy security by limiting the potential for cascade failures of the electric grid. It allows all viable options to be explored at every scale, from a few kilowatts on up. Power to the people—literally!
I'm not saying that this is the only alternative to nuclear, I am merely suggesting that it could be deployed a lot sooner and have a positive impact in a reasonable time frame. We also need to effect a culture change in energy awareness. Living sustainably is a social issue. If we can reduce and re-use, we won't need to build as many power plants or drill more wells.
Analog readers—this is my personal call to action to you as individuals. I believe that we are all intelligent, resourceful future-oriented individuals. Every one of us can and should do everything that we can, and then go and get your friends and neighbors involved in living more sustainably! To learn about my family's efforts to live sustainably go to www.arttec.net/SustainableLiving—hopefully you will be inspired to take some steps that you had not considered.
Guy Marsden,
Woolwich, Maine
* * * *
Dear Dr. Schmidt,
I have been a reader of Analog for over 50 years, and an advertiser for the last 20. I must admit my readership has been spotty in recent years as much of what you publish I barely recognize as science fiction by the standards of years past. Tastes do change, but considering I cannot keep copies of 50-80 year old Analog/Astounding magazines on my webpage, there is still considerable interest in the older variety that I like.
I did read some of the latest issue but found little to like in the fiction. What I did read in entirety was the editorial, and let me say that I was seriously disappointed. The subject was the fact of global warming or the fiction thereof as some would believe. The position you took was to defend the orthodox politically correct establishment point of view. Regardless of the facts, I would have expected a different point of view. Why is this so?
You inherited an old magazine, once well respected in the field. John Campbell made it so. I started reading not long after he became editor, and while his early editorials look simplistic by today's standards, by the 1950s they became the reason I subscribed to the magazine. I remember one editorial position that cancer caused cigarette smoking. I doubt he really believed that, but it was well argued and made a point I have not forgotten to this day. That is, the two groups used in a survey sample may not be identical, so different outcomes may be for unrelated reasons. In this case, he argued that smokers may be totally different personality types than non-smokers. That is, smokers may be naturally nervous types, who would come down with cancer more often than the general population, even if they did not smoke. Perhaps the calming effect of smoking may even reduce their cancer rate to a level below the normal rate for the group, but still higher than the control group of non-smokers.
Ridiculous? Probably so. But what prompted this letter was an article I read online about the benefits of exercise. People who exercise regularly at age 65 are likely to live five years longer than people who do not. Are these two groups the same? It is quite likely that people who exercise on a regular basis at 65 are in better health already than people who do not, and would have lived longer anyway.
Taking this back to global warming, I was disappointed to read the orthodox position—I can find that everywhere. In a science fiction magazine, I would expect better. You do not have to be a kook lunatic to consider the possibilities. As a thermodynamicist in the aerospace industry for 50 years, I can offer other possibilities that Campbell might have proffered. My own personal view is that variation in the output of the energy from the Sun has far more to do with climate than anything man can do. Anecdotal evidence that temperatures are increasing on Mars and Jupiter as well as Earth would support this thesis. Considering CO2 levels, it is just as likely that temporary global warming from variation in the Sun's energy output to the Earth is causing an increase in CO2 levels rather than the other way around. A lot of CO2 is dissolved in oceans, other bodies of water, and soil. When temperatures increase, water can hold less CO2 in solution, so increasing amounts would be dumped back into the atmosphere. Whether this is true or not is beside the point. Taking a contrary position such as this or a dozen others I could think up forces people to think.
That should be the point of editorials in an SF magazine—shake up people! Make them think, or even better, think outside the box! That should be your mission, not defending the orthodox.
Best Regards,
Ray Bowman
Carmel, IN
—
Actually the magazine is still well respected in the field, and if
you read it less spottily you'd probably know that I do sometimes do what you describe. But I don't require myself to do it all the time. Orthodox positions are not necessarily always wrong, and sometimes it's more important to be right than to be contrary. When your house appears to be on fire, you shouldn't spend too much time pondering all the ways it could be just a clever illusion before you call the fire department.
[Back to Table of Contents]
* * *
Reader's Department: UPCOMING EVENTS
by Anthony Lewis
22-24 May 2009
ConQuesT 40 (Kansas City area SF conference) at Hyatt Regency Crown Center, Kansas City, MO. Guest of Honor: John Scalzi; Artist Guest: Oberon Zell; Anime/Media Guest: Jerry Gelb; Fan Guest: Ed deGruy; Toastmaster: Ellen Datlow. Membership: $30 until 1 January 2009; later to be announced. Info: www.conquestkc.org/; ConQuesT 40, P.O. Box 36212, Kansas City, MO 64171
22-24 May 2009
OASIS 22 (Orlando area SF conference) at Sheraton Orlando Downtown, Orlando, FL. Writer Guest of Honor: Peter David; Special Guest Writer: John Ringo; Editor Guest of Honor: Toni Weisskopf; Artist Guest of Honor: Johnny Atomic. Membership: $35 until 30 April 2009, $40 at the door. Info: www.oasfis.org/oasis; OASFiS, PO Box 592905, Orlando, FL 32859-2905.
5-7 June 2009
SOONERCON 2009 (Oklahoma SF conference) at Oklahoma City, OK. Guests: Eric Flint, Selina Rosen; Artist Guest of Honor: Brad Foster. Info: www.soonercon.info; info@soonercon.com; SoonerCon, c/o Atomic Comics, 6006 S Western, Oklahoma City, OK 73139, (405) 632-2848.
2-5 July 2009
WESTERCON 62/FIESTACON (Western North America science fantasy convention) at Tempe Mission Palms Hotel, Tempe, AZ. Artist Guest of Honor: Todd Lockwood; Writer Guest of Honor: Alan Dean Foster; Editor Guest of Honor: Stanley Schmidt; Fan Guests of Honor: Jim & Doreen Webbert; Toastmasters: Patrick and Teresa Nielsen Hayden. Membership after 31 December 2008 to be announced. Info: www.fiestacon.org/; fiestacon@leprecon.org; (480) 945-6890; FiestaCon, c/o Leprecon, Inc., PO Box 26665 Tempe, AZ 85285
6-10 August 2009
ANTICIPATION (67th World Science Fiction Convention) at Palais des congres de Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Guests of Honor: Neil Gaiman, Elisabeth Vonarburg; Fan Guest of Honor: Taral Wayne; Editor Guest of Honor: David G. Hartwell; Publisher Guest of Honor: Tom Doherty; MC: Julie Czerneda. Membership: until 15 July 2009 (see website for latest details): CAD/AUD 240, USD 195 GBP 130; EUR 150; JPY 18000000; supporting membership CAD/AUD 55; USD 55; GBP 25; EUR 35; JPY 6000. This is the SF universe's annual get-together. Professionals and readers from all over the world will be in attendance. Talks, panels, films, fancy dress competition—the works. Nominate and vote for the Hugos. Info: www.anticipationsf.ca/English/Home. C.P. 105, Succursale NDG, Montreal, Quebec, Canada H4A 3P4
4-7 September 2009
North American Discworld Convention (conference dedicated to Terry Prachett's Discworld books) at The Tempe Mission Palms Hotel, Tempe, AZ. Guest of Honor: Terry Prachett; Other guests: Esther Friesner, Diane Duane, Peter Morwood. Info: www.nadwcon.org, info@nadwcon.org, (480) 945-6890, North American Discworld Convention 2009, c/o Leprecon, Inc., P.O. Box 26665, Tempe, AZ 85285.
* * *
Visit www.analogsf.com for information on additional titles by this and other authors.