Third World War

by Unknown

  A delegation of scientists, their hands white-gloved, their breath creating a cloud around them, stood in a greeting line. Sato, Yamada and Kiyoko were led into a concrete bunker. Inside, they were confronted with a row of marker lights, dropping in a steep descent. The ceiling gradually became lower, but the corridor widened into a functional steel-walled passageway with hatch-like doors off the sides, as if on a warship. Gauges displayed the air pressure inside the rooms.

  Yamada fell into step beside Sato. 'We are using 1.4 kilograms of plutonium,' he explained. 'It will yield a 14-kiloton explosion, which is exactly the strength of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. The shock wave will be contained within the Earth's crust.'

  Sato nodded. He turned as he walked. Kiyoko quickened her pace and handed him two sheets of paper. One contained the text of his short announcement, the other, the agreed questions and answers for the NHK television crew accredited to the event.

  'Ken,' said Sato. 'As soon as we've done this, I will call Jim West. And you must speak to Chris Pierce. Tell him the Harushio-class submarines are deployed - one in the Pacific and one in the Sea of Japan, and that they are nuclear-armed.'

  Yamada's face was impassive. Computer simulation was now so sophisticated that nuclear testing was merely a cosmetic act of muscle flexing.

  'But what should we do about Oak Ridge?' continued Sato.

  Yamada stopped walking and turned to his Prime Minister with a frown. 'Do you mean shall we reveal it?' asked Yamada.

  'I am thinking,' said Sato.

  'Sir,' whispered Kiyoko, tilting her head at a line of scientists behind them. Briefly Sato and Yamada edged against the wall to let them through.

  'When asked before, we have denied it,' said Yamada, once they were out of earshot. 'Do we admit to lying?'

  Sato shook his head. 'No, Yamada-san. In order to obtain results, one can choose from many layers of revelation. But the argument is compelling. In the 1980s, when the Soviet Union was a major threat to the stability of the Pacific, the United States exported its nuclear technology and hardware to Japan. The United States understood that - at some stage - America's monopoly on security in this region would have to end, probably because of a challenge from an unfriendly power with whom it did not want to fight. Whether we see that as North Korea or China, the truth is that moment has now arrived.'

  'Cited in a memo from the National Security Council in Washington on 8 December 1983 to our Cabinet Research Office,' added Kiyoko.

  'Thank you,' said Sato gently. 'Your detail is impressive, and the date significant. Congress banned the United States' own fast breeder reactor programme in 1983, while we were developing ours at Oarai and later at Monju. The Americans needed us to go ahead with it in order to keep up with their own research.'

  'Hence the Oak Ridge decision,' said Yamada.

  'Exactly,' agreed Sato.

  'This collaboration will allow the United States to maintain a core of expertise--' cited Kiyoko. 'The Oak Ridge National Laboratory Review confidential email in August 1987.'

  'The purpose was simply to allow Japan to acquire nuclear weapons before either India or Paksitan declared their own, or before China attempted to test its military resolve. So far, the plan has mostly worked perfectly, and the logic is solid.'

  Sato breathed deeply, while Kiyoko brushed his lapels and straightened his tie. 'Do those sound like the words of an elder statesman,' she said with a smile.

  Kiyoko moved back, her lips pursed in concentration. She stepped forward again, unbuttoned Sato's coat, slid it off his shoulders and held it up for collection while one of the staff hurried forward to take it. She straightened his jacket. 'Better. Much better,' she murmured, turning to Yamada. 'You, too, Yamada-san. You must both be impervious to the weather.'

  'Let's see how Jim West reacts,' said Sato, moving forward again. 'If it gets nasty, we'll Oak Ridge him.' He chuckled at his westernized use of language. He slowed as he rounded the corridor. The flickering orange and red lights of the control room appeared in front of him. He glanced across at Kiyoko and saw that her eyes were apprehensive and excited like those of a child. The wind tunnel created by the pressurized ventilation blew a scrap of paper along the concrete floor. Yamada caught it with his foot, bent down to look at it, was uninterested and handed it to one of the staff. Sato detected something in his manner which while composed also indicated an unsolved problem. Both men knew that the television pictures of Yamada by Sato's side would be the sign that the younger man was being handed the mantle of leadership. Yet, as defence minister, he was about to preside over an action that could pit his nation against both Russia and China.

  'Don't worry,' said Sato, reasserting his confidence. 'Jim West will act bruised but he will be relieved. Better to have a well-armed ally than a eunuch.' He handed his documents to Kiyoko and put his hand on Yamada's shoulder. A television camera spotlight hit their faces as they entered the control room together. Technicians, working in a horseshoe at their terminals, stood up, bowed briefly, then returned to their workstations. The television camera stayed focused on the faces of the politicians. Another covered the floor of the control centre. A third simply stayed on the countdown which began at 30 seconds.

  On the stroke of zero, down a shaft deep in the ground on an uninhabited military-controlled island fifty miles away, the plutonium atom was split. Seismographs in Lop Nor in China, in Russia, in Australia and on Wake Island in the Pacific picked up the shock waves.

  Sato unfolded his brief statement and turned to the television camera. 'Reluctantly and with much thought, Japan has just conducted a limited underground nuclear test. We made the decision as a direct result of the recent hostilities carried out by North Korea. These included a missile attack on the the US airbase at Yokata, near Tokyo, and the long-range missile launch into the Pacific, after which the American navy detected a biological weapons virus. Under such circumstances, I concluded that it would be unreasonable for Japan - a wealthy and sophisticated nation - to continue to rely on the United States for our security.'

  Up until now, Sato had been looking professionally into the camera and reading off the autocue set up for him. Briefly, he looked away and cast his eyes first at some distant point beyond the camera, then down to the ground and finally back into the lens, but with a completely different expression. He had transformed himself from detached politician into an old man, vulnerable, squinting with myopic eyes and uncertain of himself.

  'Japan is frightened,' he said. 'Yes, we have done bad things in the past. But it was long ago. I was barely a child then and now I am at the end of my years. We are sad and frightened when we see what happened in Delhi. We are frightened that missiles are fired over our country and we can do nothing about it, because our ancestors were butchers. But we are not butchers. We have shown how as an American ally we can become a benevolent, economically successful Asian democracy.'

  Then, as if by sleight of hand, the master politician refitted his mask: not vulnerable at all, a national leader who was determined that his words would be a legacy for the history books.

  'And to my friend President West, to Prime Minister Nolan, to President Song and President Kozlov, to Prime Minister Mehta and to all our allies around the world, I have this to say. The events of recent times have amply demonstrated what we have all known for some time. That the days of America fighting wars to protect far-flung places are over. You have made your sacrifices, you have safeguarded this region while we have been able to grow strong and rich. But there comes a time when we have to bid our foster parents farewell and stand on our own. It is up to us to show our maturity.'

  ****

  52*

  ****

  Washington, DC, USA*

  'Mr President, Toru Sato wants to speak to you urgently.'

  'Sato. Japan,' said West to himself. 'Tell him to--' But he managed to stop himself in time, remembering how Kozlov didn't take his call, and he was now finding out what was happening along with the rest of the world by w
atching television.

  Kozlov was still speaking. 'We have to rebuild Pakistan into a nation which works and which does not threaten. We have to neutralize the threat of North Korea, but also realize the aspirations of the people who live there--'

  'I'll take the call,' said West.

  'Stuart Nolan is on the other line from London,' said Kozerski.

  'Give me Nolan first,' said West, picking up the phone. At least with the British, there was no standing on ceremony. 'Stuart?'

  'I'll be quick,' said Nolan. 'First, we must not buckle on this. Their systems stink and their failure is all over the place. Does anyone believe this hogwash? I'll bring Europe into line, Jim. You have my word on this - even if it's my dying word. Second, we have specific human intelligence that the Pakistanis are holding out around the base at Chagai Hills in Baluchistan. This is one of their key nuclear sites. Damned difficult place to fight in. The Russians are bogged down, and they don't have the right kit to bust through. I'll get Charles Colchester to brief Chris Pierce directly. Third, on your agreement, I'm happy to hit Park Ho right now. We have HMS Vengeance in the South China Sea. You might be under conditions from China, but that duplicitous little bastard Song never told me not to strike above the fortieth parallel.'

  West found himself unexpectedly relieved. With Peter Brock gone, he should have talked to Nolan more often. 'Can you hold, Stuart? I've got to deal with Sato, then I'll be right back.'

  He nodded at Kozerski, who put Sato on the line, but in the pause he couldn't help tuning back into the television, where Jamie Song was now talking: 'Look at the statistics of the World Bank which praises China and Cuba above all other countries in their work at poverty alleviation. Those countries living under the post-Cold-War American system of new democracies and IMF loans are simply becoming poorer and poorer - whole swathes of Latin America and Africa are worse off now than when we were fighting the Cold War. Why? Because this bogus system of so-called freedom is a breeding ground for tribalism, corruption and selfish interest groups. In China, we have found another way--'

  'Turn it down,' said West to Kozerski, slowly waving his hand to make the point. 'Mr Prime Minister,' he said. 'Thanks for calling.' Out of the corner of his eyes he saw Kozerski signalling him, but it was only after Sato had begun speaking that he understood what his Chief of Staff had been trying to say.

  'Mr President,' said Sato stiffly. 'This is a courtesy call. Given the new alliance between China and Russia, we have just conducted an underground nuclear test. Ken Yamada, my defence minister, will be briefing Chris Pierce fully.'

  The blood drained out of West's face. 'Sato, for Christ's sake--'

  'My nation demands it.' Sato paused awkwardly. 'I'm sorry, Jim. I wish it hadn't come to this. But it has.'

  The line went dead. Kozerski, who had been listening in, looked across and shook his head. 'We were getting seismographic analysis in from Hawaii,' said Kozerski, apologetically.

  'Chris, Japan's tested,' said West.

  The Defense Secretary, on the phone to the Pentagon, raised a finger in the air. 'Hold, please,' he said, then turned to the President. 'Atmospheric or underground?'

  'Underground,' said Kozerski.

  Pierce nodded. 'I'll get back to you,' he said, cutting his call and getting up.

  Momentarily, West spoke to Nolan. 'Stuart, Japan's just gone nuclear. Can you hold for a couple more minutes?'

  'He told us as much at Camp David,' grunted Nolan. 'I'll stay on the line.'

  'Do we get Mary over there?' said Pierce. 'And if so, can she do anything?'

  West, head lowered, listened to Nolan's acknowledgement, absorbed Pierce's question, and for some reason saw an image of himself with Valerie and Lizzie, walking hand in hand through tall grass one summer in France.

  He brought Nolan back across the line. 'An underground test,' he said bluntly.

  'Fourteen kilotons,' said Kozerski.

  'Fourteen kilotons,' repeated West.

  'What are you going to do?'

  'I'm bringing Chris Pierce and John Kozerski in on this conversation, Stuart.' West allowed a few seconds for Kozerski to set up the conference call. 'All right, gentlemen, this is what I plan. Any objections or ideas, state them now. Mary stays in Beijing. Her aim is to nail down a new strategic alliance with China, Russia, Japan, India, the US and Europe. We'll send a team out to work with her.

  'We describe Japan's tests as "unfortunate, but understandable". We underline the strength of the US-Japan security relationship. Stuart, I would like to take you up on your offer to strike North Korea above the fortieth parallel. Chris, we're going to go in between the fortieth and Pyongyang. Only the nuclear facilities and launch sites. Seal them off. And I want to strike the Chagai Hills in Pakistan, if we can stand up Stuart's human intelligence. Give Kozlov and Song enough warning to get their men out.'

  ****

  53*

  ****

  London, UK*

  A screen slid up from the floor at the end of the Cabinet table in Downing Street. It concealed the whole wall behind it, and as it flickered on it divided itself into four squares, each settling into a different picture. Stuart Nolan's Foreign Secretary was on his way to Asia. The Defence Secretary was at the command headquarters in Northwood in a north London suburb. Nolan had just spoken to the prime ministers of Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and Malaysia, advising them of what he was doing.

  'The screen on the top left is the camera inside HMS Vengeance,' explained Colchester. 'You will see the joint keys which the captain uses with the chief engineer to confirm your orders. On the bottom left is the image of the surface of the South China Sea through which the two missiles will break, courtesy of military satellites being relayed through NIMA in Washington. On the top right is one of the bases in North Korea. We'll switch it to black and white in order to get sharper resolution. On the bottom left is satellite imagery of the Chagai Hills. There is cloud moving in there, but a Global Hawk unmanned aircraft has been deployed, so the image might switch to that. If everything goes to plan, North Korea will be hit within one minute of the strike on the Chagai Hills.'

  Nolan nodded. He was trying to find the right thoughts for this moment, but none came. He had not consulted Parliament. He had not notified the monarch. He had not called in the Cabinet. To have done any of those things would have been to delay and possibly postpone until it was too late.

  'Let's do it,' he said. 'Send out the press release.' As Colchester took his seat beside Nolan, the Downing Street press statement was flashed on the screen as it was emailed to thousands of news outlets around the world. 'Following consultations with members, Britain and its allies in the Five Power Defence Agreement - which protects stability in South-East Asia - have declared war on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.'

  At exactly the same time, Nolan watched as the captain and chief engineer of HMS Vengeance each turned a key. Then the captain pressed the button for the launch. On the screen below, crystal-clear blue water swelled, creating a circle of white froth, which heaved upwards. Two ballistic missiles burst through, seemed to hover for a split second in indecision, then flared skywards towards North Korea.

  The screen on the bottom left went blank. 'Cloud cover,' said Colchester quietly. Slowly it became grey. Then, just as more distinct contours of the Chagai Hills appeared, they vanished as quickly again.

  'Thermobaric explosives,' continued Colchester. 'Pierce is carpet-bombing the place with them. It's about as close as you can get to a nuclear attack without actually going nuclear.'

  Nolan walked closer to the screen, squinting to get a closer look. The picture jumped. The Global Hawk must have been buffeted in the turbulence. 'How high is it?' he asked.

  Colchester glanced at a separate monitor displaying data by the telephone. 'Seventeen thousand feet, and holding it,' he said. He pointed to another section of the screen. 'Over there.'

  The image over North Korea was more distant but more stable. Colchester used the rem
ote to split the screen into two again.

  'Can't see a damn thing,' said Nolan.

  'On the left is foliage,' said Colchester. 'On the right the side of a mountain. A lot of snow there.'

  The smoke of two explosions slowly filled the screens like sprays of white salt, sending them into flickering whiteness, before revealing the black cloud that covered the satellite's view.

  'Right,' said Colchester, unfolding a map and spreading it on the table. 'That was a confirmed hit on Chunggang-up, the base from which the smallpox missile was launched. And the second,' he paused, checking the data monitor, which was feeding information directly from the National Security Agency at Fort Meade to Menwith Hill in Yorkshire, then through a fibre-optic cable to London and Downing Street, 'yes, and the second confirmed hit is on Kanggamchan.'

  'Still can't see a damn thing,' said Nolan. The success of the strikes and the varnished glare of the imagery left an empty feeling in him. He stared at the screen, trying to see victory, but instead found disappointment. He knew the phone was not about to ring with Park Ho's surrender.