Countdown: Our Last, Best Hope for a Future on Earth?

by Alan Weisman

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  “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and Relevant Provisions of Security Council Resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Report by the Director General.” International Atomic Energy Agency, November 8, 2011.

  “Iran: The People Take Over.” Time, August 31, 1953.

  “Iran Environment in Grave Danger.” Press TV (Tehran), April 30, 2010.

  “Iran Experiencing Population Decline, Growing Old.” Mehr News Agency (Tehran), July 9, 2011. http://www.mehrnews.com/en.

  “Iran Gives Up Birth Control Program to Boost Population.” Al Arabiya, August 3, 2012.

  “The Iranian Parliament Failed to Take an Action to Save Lake Urmia, Which Is Drying Up Rapidly.” Lake Urmia Conservation Institute website, August 27, 2011. http://saveurmia.com/main/2011/08/27.

  “Iran Revolutionary Guards Officers Nabbed for Child Prostitution.” Iran Focus, April 11, 2005. http://www.iranfocus.com.

  “Iran to Pay for Babies to Boost Population.” Boston Globe, July 28, 2010.

  “Iran/United Nations: Iran Is Blessed with Dynamic Young Population of 17-M—UNFPA.” Thai Press Reports, August 12, 2010.

  Kadivar, H. “Overseas Medical Elective Assessment: Primary Health Care and Family Planning in the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Accessed at: http://keck.usc.edu/en/About/Administrative_Offices/Global_Health_Scholars_Program/~/media/Docs/Offices/Global%20Health/H_Kadivar_Iran.doc.

  Kahrom, Esmail. “Wildlife Conservation in Iran.” Asian Affairs, vol. 31, no.1 (2000): 49–56.

  Karimi, Nasser. “Iran Urges Baby Boom.” Associated Press, July 29, 2012.

  Katzman, Kenneth. “Iran: U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses.” Congressional Research Service CRS Report for Congress, September 5, 2012.

  Kerr, Paul K. “Iran’s Nuclear Program: Tehran’s Compliance with International Obligations.” Congressional Research Service CRS Report for Congress, September 18, 2012.

  Khalaj, Monavar. “Iranians Resist Call to Boost Population.” Financial Times, July 23, 2012.

  Khosravifard, Sam. “Iran’s Wildlife Under Threat.” Iran IRN, no. 47, Institute for War & Peace Reporting, August 6, 2010. http://iwpr.net/report-news.

  Koushafar, Mohammad, Farhad Amini, and Shiva Azadipour. “The Role of Environmental NGOs in Protection Zayanderood River in Isfahan.” International NGO Journal, vol. 2, no. 2 (February 2007): 27–29. Available online at: http://www.academicjournals.org/INGOJ 27–29.

  Lal, Vinay. “Iran’s Revolution and the Global Politics of Resistance.” Economic & Political Weekly, April 5, 2012.

  Linzer, Dafna. “U.N. Finds No Nuclear Bomb Program in Iran.” Washington Post, November 16, 2004.

  Lutz, Wolfgang, Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, and Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi. “Demography, Education and Democracy: Global Trends and the Case of Iran.” Interim Report Paper, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, June 24, 2009.

  MacFarquahar, Neil. “With Iran Population Boom, Vasectomy Receives Blessing.” New York Times, September 8, 1996.

  Malekafzali, H. “Primary Health Care in the Rural Area of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Iranian Journal of Public Health, vol. 38, supplement 1 (2009): 69–70.

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  Mehryar, Amir H., Akbar Aghajanian, Shirin Ahmad-Nia, Muhammad Mirzae, and Mohsen Naghavi. “Primary Health Care System, Narrowing of Rural-Urban Gap in Health Indicators, and Rural Poverty Reduction: The Experience of Iran.” Paper accepted for presentation at the XXV General Population Conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Tours, France. July 2005.

  Mirrazavi, Firouzeh, ed. “The Removing of Hijab in Iran.” Iran Review, February 7, 2013.

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  Namakydoust, Azadeh. “Covered in Messages: The Veil as a Political Tool.” Iranian, May 8, 2003.

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  Pengra, Bruce. “The Drying of Iran’s Lake Urmia and Its Environmental Consequences.” UNEP Global Environmental Alert Service, February 2012. www.unep.org/pdf/GEAS_Feb2012.pdf.

  Peterson, Scott. “Ahmadinejad Calls on Iranian Girls to Marry at 16; Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s Comment Is His Latest Effort to Create a Baby Boom, Reversing Iran’s Lauded Model of Family Planning.” Christian Science Monitor (U.S.), November 22, 2010.

  Radio Zamaneh. “Fewer Female Students Admitted to Iranian University.” Payvand Iran News, August 9, 2012.

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  Risen, James. “Secrets of History: The C.I.A. in Iran—A Special Report; How a Plot Convulsed Iran in ’53 (and in ’79).” New York Times, April 16, 2000.

  _______, and Mark Mazzetti. “U.S. Agencies See No Move by Iran to Build a Bomb.” New York Times, February 24, 2012.

  Roudi, Farzaneh. “A Perspective on Fertility Behavior of Iranian Women.” Research paper submitted to IUSSP International Population Conference, Morocco, 2009. iussp2009.princeton.edu/download.aspx?submissionId=93104.

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  Sherwell, Philip, and Colin Freeman. “Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Cash In After a Year of Suppressing Dissent.” Telegraph (UK), June 12, 2010.

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  Chapter Thirteen: Shrink and Prosper

  BOOKS

  Daily, Gretchen C., and Katherine Ellison. The New Economy of Nature: The Quest to Make Conservation Profitable
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  Daly, Herman E. Beyond Growth: The Economics of Sustainable Development. Boston: Beacon Press, 1996.

  _______, and Joshua Farley. Ecological Economics. Washington, DC: Island Press, 2010.

  Dyson, Tim. Population and Development: The Demographic Transition. London: Zed Books, 2006.

  Eggleston, Karen, and Shripad Tuljapurkar. Aging Asia: The Economic and Social Implications of Rapid Demographic Change in China, Japan, and South Korea. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2010.

  Heinberg, Richard. The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality. Gabriola Island, BC: New Society Publishers, 2011.

  Jackson, Tim. Prosperity Without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet. New York: Earthscan Publications, 2009.

  Latouche, Serge. Farewell to Growth. Cambridge: Polity, 2009.

  Matsutani, Akihiko. Shrinking-Population Economics: Lessons from Japan. Tokyo: International House of Japan, 2006.

  Pineda, Cecile. Devil’s Tango: How I Learned the Fukushima Step by Step. San Antonio, TX: Wings Press, 2010.

  ARTICLES

  Ackerman, Frank, Elizabeth A. Stanton, Stephen J. DeCanio, et al. “The Economics of 350: The Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization.” Economics for Equity and Environment, October 2009. www.e3network.org.

  Alpert, Emily. “Government Incentives Fail to Reverse Japan’s Population Decline.” Chicago Tribune, August 14, 2012.

  Alvarez, Robert. “Why Fukushima Is a Greater Disaster than Chernobyl and a Warning Sign for the US.” Institute for Policy Studies, April 24, 2012.

  Arrow, Kenneth J., Maureen L. Cropper, George C. Eads, Robert W. Hahn, Lester B. Lave, Roger G. Noll, Paul R. Portney, Milton Russell, Richard Schmalensee, V. Kerry Smith, and Robert N. Stavins. “Is There a Role for Benefit-Cost Analysis in Environmental, Health, and Safety Regulation?” Science, New Series, vol. 272, no. 5259 (April 12, 1996): 221–22.

  Arrow, Kenneth J., Alain Bensoussan, Qi Feng, and Suresh P. Sethi. “Optimal Savings and the Value of Population.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, vol. 104, no. 47 (November 20, 2007): 18421–26.

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  Astor, Maggie. “Goldman Sachs Sets Aside $10 Billion for Bonuses While Hemorrhaging Money.” International Business Times, October 21, 2011.

  “Average Age of New Mothers in Japan Tops 30 for 1st Time.” Jiji Press Ticker Service (Japan), June 5, 2012.

  Bird, Winifred. “Japan’s Creeping Natural Disaster.” Japan Times, August 23, 2009.

  Botelho, Greg. “Six Months Post-Fukushima, Weighing Costs, Risks Key to Nuclear Debate.” CNN, September 10, 2011.

  Brown, Lester R. “Learning from China: Why the Existing Economic Model Will Fail.” Earth Policy Institute, September 8, 2011. www.earth-policy.org/data_highlights/2011/highlights18.

  Burch, Thomas K. “Induced Abortion in Japan Under Eugenic Protection Law of 1948.” Biodemography and Social Biology, vol. 2, no. 3 (1955): 140–51.

  Clark, Matthew. “Germany’s Angela Merkel: Multiculturalism Has ‘Utterly Failed.’ ” The Christian Science Monitor, October 17, 2010.

  Connolly, Kate. “Angela Merkel Declares Death of German Multiculturalism.” Guardian (UK), October 17, 2010. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/oct/17/angela-merkel-germany-multiculturalism-failures.

  “Cuban Population Declines, Numbers of Homes Increases.” Fox News Latino, Efe, December 7, 2012.

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  Daly, Herman E. “A Steady-State Economy: A Failed Growth Economy and a Steady-State Economy Are Not the Same Thing; They Are the Very Different Alternatives We Face.” Presented to the Sustainable Development Commission, UK, April 24, 2008.

  _______.“Economics in a Full World.” Scientific American, vol. 293, no. 3 (September 2005).

  _______.“Population and Economics: A Bioeconomic Analysis.” Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, vol. 12, no. 3 (Spring 1991): 257–63.

  Das, Satyajit. “A World Without Growth Is a Possibility.” Global Finance Stratagy News, August 31, 2011. http://www.gfsnews.com/article/2842/1/A_world_without_growth_Is_a_possibility.

  Dasgupta, Partha. “Nature in Economics.” Environmental and Resource Economics, vol. 39 (2008):1–7. doi: 10.1007/s10640-007-9178-4.

  _______.“Population, Consumption and Resources: Ethical Issues.” Ecological Economics, vol. 24 (1998): 139–52.

  _______.“Regarding Optimum Population.” Journal of Political Philosophy, vol. 13, no. 4 (2005): 414–42.

  Da-ye, Kim. “Population Decrease to Stunt Korea’s GDP.” Korea Times, November 3, 2010.

  “Doomsday Demographics.” Washington Times, November 27, 2004.

  Dyson, Tim. “On Development, Demography and Climate Change: The End of the World as We Know It?” Population and Environment, vol. 27, no. 2 (2005): 117–49.

  Eberstadt, Nicholas. “Japan Shrinks: Many Nations Have Aging Populations, but None Can Quite Match Japan.” Wilson Quarterly (Spring 2012): 30–37.

  _______.“Russia’s Demographic Straightjacket.” SAIS Review, vol. 24, no. 2 (Summer–Fall 2004): 9–25.

  _______.“Russia, the Sick Man of Europe.” Public Interest, no. 158 (Winter 2005): 3–20.

  “Economic Growth Cannot Continue.” BBC News. January 28, 2010. Access at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8478770.stm.

  Farmer, James. “The US: Living in a Lower Population Growth Environment.” IFA Magazine, January 6, 2012. http://www.ifamagazine.com/news.

  Farrell, Paul B. “A 20-Rule Manifesto for New No-Growth Economics; Commentary: Classical Economics Is Fatally Flawed.” MarketWatch, August 30, 2011. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/.

  _______.“Population Bomb: 9 Billion March to WWIII.” MarketWatch, June 28, 2011. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/population-bomb-9-billion-march-to-wwiii-2011-06-28.

  _______.“Why Big-Money Men Ignore World’s Biggest Problem.” MarketWatch, October 11, 2011.

  Filipo, Fabrice, and Francois Schneider, eds. Proceedings of the First International Conference on Economic De-growth for Ecological Sustainability and Social Equity, Paris, April 18–19, 2008.

  Freeland, Chrystia. “Demographics Putting a Squeeze on the Debt Dilemma.” Reuters, August 1, 2011.

  Ghimire, Bhumika. “Germany: Population Decline and the Economy.” Suite101.com, February 22, 2011. http://suite101.com/article.

  Goulder, Lawrence H., and Robert N. Stavins. “Eye on the Future.” Nature, vol. 419 (October 17, 2002): 673–74. www.nature.com/nature.

  Graham, James. “Japan’s Economic Expansion into Manchuria and China in World War Two.” Historyorb.com, May 2004. http://www.historyorb.com/asia/japan_economic_expansion.php.

  Harrop, Froma. “Birthrates Did Not Doom Japan.” The Leave Chronicle, March 22, 2012. http://www.theleafchronicle.com/article/20120323.

  Hasegawa, Kyoko. “Japan Faces ‘Extinction’ in 1,000 Years.” Agence France-Presse, May 11, 2012.

  Hayashi, Yuka. “Quake-Hit Area Was Already Reeling,” Wall Street Journal, March 11, 2011.

  Heinberg, Richard. “Gross National Happiness.” MuseLetter, no. 232, September 2011.

  _______.“Welcome to the Post-Growth Economy.” MuseLetter, no. 232, September 2011.

  “HIV/AIDS in Russia & Eurasia.” Center for Strategic and International Studies website, Russia and Eurasia Past Projects. http://csis.org/program/hivaids.

  “Immigrants Boost German Population.” The Local, July 2, 2012.

  Jackson, Tim. “Prosperity Without Growth?—The Transition to a Sustainable Economy.” Sustainable Development Commission, March 2009.

  Jacobson, Brad. “The Worst Yet to Come? W
hy Nuclear Experts Are Calling Fukushima a Ticking Time-Bomb.” AlterNet, May 7, 2012.

  Jamail, Dahr. “Fukushima: It’s Much Worse Than You Think.” Al-Jazeera English, June 16, 2011.

  James, Kyle. “No Brakes on Germany’s Population Freefall.” Deutsche Welle, August 17, 2006.

  “Japan Has 23.3% Aging Population in 2011: Gov’t.” Xinhua News Agency (China). April 17, 2012.

  “Japanese Women Fall Behind Hong Kong in Longevity.” BBC News, July 26, 2012.

  “Japan Revises Up Long-Term Fertility Rate Forecast.” Jiji Press Ticker Service (Japan). January 30, 2012.

  “Japan’s Population Declines for the 3rd Straight Year.” Xinhua News Agency (China). August 7, 2012.

  “Japan’s Population to Shrink About 30% to 86.7 Mil. by 2060.” Japan Economic Newswire, January 30, 2012.

  “Japan to Test-Drill for Seabed ‘Burning Ice.’ ” Agence France-Presse, July 26, 2011.

  “Japan Vows to Continue Nuclear Plant Exports.” Agence France-Presse, August 5, 2011.

  Johnson, Eric. “Kansai Chiefs Accept ‘Limited’ Reactor Restart: Even Hashimoto Caves Amid Intense Lobbying, Now Faces Public Ire.” Japan Times, June 1, 2012.

  Kayler-Thomson, Wayne, and Darin Ritchie. “OP-ED: Demographic Debate—It’s Now or Never.” Age (Australia), May 20, 2011.

  Kenny, Charles. “An Aging Population May Be What the World Needs.” Bloomberg Businessweek, February 7, 2013.

  Krugman, Paul, Krugman & Co. “Japan’s Horror Story Not So Scary After All.” Op-Ed, Truthout, October 1, 2010.

  “Love Is in the Air in Singapore.” Destinations of the World News, August 5, 2012. Accessed at http://www.dotwnews.com/focus/love-Is-in-the-air-in-singapore.

  Mann, Donald. “A No-Growth, Steady-State Economy Must Be Our Goal.” Position paper for Negative Population Growth Inc., August 2002.

  Mauricio, Vicente. “La Población Cubana Decrece Por Tercer Año Consecutivo.” El País, June 1, 2008.

  McCurry, Justin. “Japan: Below-Par Birth Rate from Fewer Marriages Bucks World Trend and Accelerates Decline.” Guardian (UK), October 26, 2011.

  Merkel, Angela. “Multiculturalism Utterly Failed in Germany.” YouTube video, Posted by RussiaToday, October 17, 2010. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKG76HF24_k&playnext=1&list=PL50883A09779FEA59&feature=results_video.