Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder

by Taleb, Nassim Nicholas

  Brewster, J. F., M. R. Graham, et al., 2005, “Convexity, Jensen’s Inequality and Benefits of Noisy Mechanical Ventilation.” Journal of the Royal Society 2(4): 393–396.

  Brosco, J., and S. Watts, 2007, “Two Views: ‘Bad Medicine: Doctors Doing Harm Since Hippocrates.’ By David Wootton.” Journal of Social History 41(2): 481.

  Bryson, Bill, 2010, At Home: A Short History of Private Life. New York: Doubleday.

  Burch, Druin, 2009, Taking the Medicine: A Short History of Medicine’s Beautiful Idea, and Our Difficulty Swallowing It. Chatto and Windus.

  Burghardt, G., and W. Hoskins, 1994, “The Convexity Bias in Eurodollar Futures.” Carr Futures Research Note, September.

  Burghardt, G., and G. Panos, 2001, “Hedging Convexity Bias.” Carr Futures Research Note, August.

  Burnyeat, F., 1984, “The Sceptic in His Place and Time.” In R. Rorty, J. B. Schneewind, and Q. Skinner, eds., Philosophy in History. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 225.

  Cairns, Warwick, 2007, About the Size of It: The Common Sense Approach to Measuring Things. London: Pan Books.

  Calabrese, E. J., 2005, “Paradigm Lost, Paradigm Found: The Re-emergence of Hormesis as a Fundamental Dose Response Model in the Toxicological Sciences.” Environmental Pollution 138(3): 378–411.

  Calabrese, E. J., and L. Baldwin, 2002, “Defining Hormesis.” Human & Experimental Toxicology 21(2): 91.

  Calabrese, E. J., and L. A. Baldwin, 2003a, “Toxicology Rethinks Its Central Belief.” Nature 421(6924): 691–692.

  Calabrese, E. J., and L. A. Baldwin, 2003b, “Hormesis: The Dose-Response Revolution.” Annual Review of Pharmacology and Toxicology 43(1): 175–197.

  Calder, William M. III, Bernhard Huss, Marc Mastrangelo, R. Scott Smith, and Stephen M. Trzaskoma, 2002, The Unknown Socrates. Wauconda, Ill: Bolchazy-Carducci Publishers.

  Calhoun, L. G., and R. G. Tedeschi, 2006, Expert Companions: Post-Traumatic Growth in Clinical Practice. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Publishers.

  Canguilhem, Georges, 1966, Le normal et le pathologique. Presses Universitaires de France.

  Canguilhem, Georges, 1995, Études d’histoire et de philosophie des sciences. Librairie Philosophique J. Vrin.

  Carbuhn, A., T. Fernandez, A. Bragg, J. Green, and S. Crouse, 2010, “Sport and Training Influence Bone and Body Composition in Women Collegiate Athletes.” Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research 24(7): 1710–1717.

  Carey, B., P. K. Patra, et al., 2011, “Observation of Dynamic Strain Hardening in Polymer Nanocomposites.” ACS Nano. 5(4): 2715–2722.

  Carrera-Bastos, P., M. Fontes Villalba, et al., 2011, “The Western Diet and Lifestyle and Diseases of Civilization.” Research Reports in Clinical Cardiology 2: 215–235.

  Cartwright, S., and R. Schoenberg, 2006, “Thirty Years of Mergers and Acquisitions Research: Recent Advances and Future Opportunities.” British Journal of Management 17(S1): S1–S5.

  Caves, Carlton M., 2000, “Predicting Future Duration from Present Age: A Critical Assessment,” Contemporary Physics 41: 143–153.

  Chang, H. J., 2011, 23 Things They Don’t Tell You About Capitalism. London: Bloomsbury Press.

  Charbonnier, Georges, 2010, Entretiens avec Claude Lévi-Strass. Les Belles Lettres.

  Collins, Harry, 2010, Tacit and Explicit Knowledge. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

  Collins, N. C., 2008, “Is Ice Right? Does Cryotherapy Improve Outcome for Acute Soft Tissue Injury?” Emergency Medicine Journal 25: 65–68.

  Compagnon, Antoine, 2005, Les antimodernes de Joseph de Maistre à Roland Barthes. Paris: Gallimard.

  Congcong, He, et al., 2012, “Exercise-Induced BCL2-Regulated Autophagy Is Required for Muscle Glucose Homeostasis.” Nature, 2012.

  Conrad, Lawrence I., Michael Neve, Vivian Nutton, Roy Porter, and Andrew Wear, 1995, The Western Medical Tradition: 800 BC to AD 1800. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  Conroy, B. P., W. J. Kraemer, et al., 1993, “Bone Mineral Density in Elite Junior Olympic Weightlifters.” Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise 25(10): 1103.

  Contopoulos-Ioannidis, D. G., E. E. Ntzani, et al., 2003, “Translation of Highly Promising Basic Science Research into Clinical Applications.” American Journal of Medicine 114(6): 477–484.

  Contopoulos-Ioannidis, D. G., G. A. Alexiou, et al., 2008, “Life Cycle of Translational Research for Medical Interventions.” Science 321(5894): 1298–1299.

  Convery, F. J., C. Di Maria, et al., 2010, “ESRI Discussion Paper Series No. 230.”

  Coulter, Harris L., 1994, Divided Legacy: A History of the Schism in Medical Thought, Vol. I. Center for Empirical Medicine.

  Coulter, Harris L., 2000, Divided Legacy: A History of Schism in Medical Thought, Vol. II. North Atlantic Books.

  Cowan, R., P. A. David, et al., 2000, “The Explicit Economics of Knowledge Codification and Tacitness.” Industrial and Corporate Change 9(2): 211.

  Coy, P., 2009, “What Good Are Economists Anyway?” BusinessWeek 27: 26–29.

  Crafts, Nicholas F. R., 1985, British Economic Growth During the Industrial Revolution. New York: Oxford University Press.

  Crafts, Nicholas F. R., and C. Knick Harley. “Output Growth and the British Industrial Revolution: A Restatement of the Crafts-Harley View.” Economic History Review 45 (1992): 703–730.

  Cretu, O., R. B. Stewart, et al., 2011, Risk Management for Design and Construction.

  Crosby, Alfred W., 1997, The Measure of Reality: Quantification and Western Society, 1250–1600. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  Cuillerai, Marie, 2009, Spéculation, éthique, confiance: Essai sur le capitalisme vertueux. Éditions Payots-Rivages.

  Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu, Kristina Mitchell, K.M. Venkat Narayan, Salim Yusuf, 2008, “Doctors’ Strikes and Mortality: A Review.” Social Science & Medicine 67(11), 1784–1788.

  Cypser, J. R., and T. E. Johnson, 2002, “Multiple Stressors in Caenorhabditis Elegans Induce Stress Hormesis and Extended Longevity.” Journals of Gerontology: Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 57(3): B109.

  Czerlinski, J., G. Gigerenzer, et al., 1999, “How Good Are Simple Heuristics?”

  Dahl, Robert A., and Edward R. Tufte, 1973, Size and Democracy. Stanford: Stanford University Press.

  Danchin, A., P. M. Binder, et al., 2011, “Antifragility and Tinkering in Biology (and in Business) Flexibility Provides an Efficient Epigenetic Way to Manage Risk.” Genes 2(4): 998–1016.

  Darnton, Robert, 2010, The Devil in the Holy Water, or The Art of Slander from Louis XIV to Napoleon. University of Pennsylvania Press.

  Daston, Lorraine, 1988, Classical Probability in the Enlightenment. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

  Davidson, P., 2010, “Black Swans and Knight’s Epistemological Uncertainty: Are These Concepts Also Underlying Behavioral and Post-Walrasian Theory?” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 32(4): 567–570.

  Davis, Devra, 2007, The Secret History of the War on Cancer. Basic Books.

  Dawes, Robyn M., 2001, Everyday Irrationality: How Pseudo-Scientists, Lunatics, and the Rest of Us Systematically Fail to Think Rationally. Westview.

  De Finetti, B., 1937, La prévision: ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives. Institut Henri Poincaré.

  De Finetti, B., 1974, Theory of Probability, Vol. 1. London: John.

  De Finetti, B., 1989, “Probabilism.” Erkenntnis 31(2): 169–223.

  De la Hunty, A., S. Gibson, and M. Ashwell, 2006, “A Review of the Effectiveness of Aspartame in Helping with Weight Control.” Nutrition Bulletin 31(2):115–128.

  De Long, J. Bradford, and Andrei Shleifer, 1993, “Princes and Merchants: European City Growth Before the Industrial Revolution.” Journal of Law and Economics 36: 671–702.

  De Soto, H., 2000, The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else. Basic Books.

  De Vany, A., 2011, The New Evolution Diet. Vermilion.

  Delon, Michel, ed., 1997, Dictionna
ire européen des lumières. Presses Universitaires de France.

  Deneubourg, J. L., S. Goss, N. Franks, and J. M. Pasteels, 1989, “The Blind Leading the Blind: Modelling Chemically Mediated Army Ant Raid Patterns.” Journal of Insect Behavior 2: 719–725.

  Deneubourg, J. L., J. M. Pasteels, and J. C. Verhaeghe, 1983, “Probabilistic Behavior in Ants: A Strategy of Errors?” Journal of Theoretical Biology 105: 259–271.

  Derman, E., and N. N. Taleb, 2005, “The Illusions of Dynamic Replication.” Quantitative Finance 5: 4.

  Dhabhar, F. S., 2009, “Enhancing Versus Suppressive Effects of Stress on Immune Function: Implications for Immunoprotection and Immunopathology.” Neuroimmunomodulation 16(5): 300–317.

  Dhabhar, F. S., A. N. Saul, C. Daugherty, T. H. Holmes, D. M. Bouley, T. M. Oberyszyn, 2010, “Short-term Stress Enhances Cellular Immunity and Increases Early Resistance to Squamous Cell carcinoma.” Brain, Behavior and Immunity 24(1): 127–137.

  Dhabhar, F. S., A. N. Saul, T. H. Holmes, C. Daugherty, E. Neri, J. M. Tillie, D. Kusewitt, T. M. Oberyszyn, 2012, “High-Anxious Individuals Show Increased Chronic Stress Burden, Decreased Protective Immunity, and Increased Cancer Progression in a Mouse Model of Squamous Cell Carcinoma.” PLOS ONE 7(4): e33069.

  Diamond, Jared, 1988, “Why Cats Have Nine Lives.” Nature, Vol. 332, April 14.

  Dixit, A. K. and R. S. Pindyck, 1994, Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

  Djebbar, Ahmed, 2001, Une histoire de la science arabe. Éditions du Seuil.

  Dook, J. E., C. James, N. K. Henderson, and R. I. Price, 1997, “Exercise and Bone Mineral Density in Mature Female Athletes.” Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise 29(3): 291–296.

  Douady, R. and N. N. Taleb, 2011, “Statistical Undecidability,” preprint.

  Driver, P. M., and D. A. Humphries, 1988, Protean Behaviour: The Biology of Unpredictability. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

  Duffin, Jacalyn, 1999, History of Medicine: A Scandalously Short Introduction. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.

  Dunne, J. A., R. J. Williams, et al., 2002, “Network Topology and Biodiversity Loss in Food Webs: Robustness Increases with Connectance.” Ecology Letters 5(4): 558–567.

  Earle, J., 1975, “Thyroid Cancer. Delayed Effects of Head and Neck Irradiation in Children (Medical Information).” Western Journal of Medicine 123:340, October.

  Easterly, W., 2001, The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists’ Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.

  Easterly, W., and A. Kraay, 2000, “Small States, Small Problems? Income, Growth, and Volatility in Small States.” World Development 28(11): 2013–2027.

  Easterly, W., M. Kremer, L. Pritchett, and L. Summers, 1993, “Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks” Journal of Monetary Economics 32(3): 459–483.

  Easterly, William, 2006, The White Man’s Burden: Why the West’s Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good. Penguin Group.

  Eberhard, Wolfram, 1950, 1977, A History of China. University of California Press.

  Edelstein, Ludwig, 1987, Ancient Medicine. Johns Hopkins University Press.

  Edgerton, David, 1996a, “The ‘White Heat’ Revisited: British Government and Technology in the 1960s.” Twentieth Century British History 7(1): 53–82.

  Edgerton, David, 1996b, Science, Technology, and the British Industrial ‘Decline,’ 1870–1970. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  Edgerton, David, 2004, “The ‘Linear Model’ Did Not Exist: Reflections on the History and Historiography of Science and Research in Industry in the Twentieth Century.” In Karl Grandin and Nina Wormbs, eds., The Science–Industry Nexus: History, Policy, Implications. New York: Watson.

  Edgerton, David, 2007, The Shock of the Old: Technology and Global History Since 1900, Oxford.

  Ekern, S., 1980, “Increasing Nth Degree Risk.” Economics Letters 6(4): 329–333.

  Elkington, John, and Pamela Hartigan, 2008, The Power of Unreasonable People: How Social Entrepreneurs Create Markets That Change the World. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard Business Press.

  Emer, J., 2009, “An Evolution of General Purpose Processing: Reconfigurable Logic Computing.” Proceedings of the 7th Annual IEEE/ACM International Symposium.

  Esnault, Y., 2001, “Francois Jacob, l’éloge du bricolage.” Biofutur (213).

  Fabrizio, P., F. Pozza, S. Pletcher, C. Gendron, and V. Longo, 2001, “Regulation of Longevity and Stress Resistance by Sch9 in Yeast.” Science’s STKE 292(5515): 288.

  Fejtö, François, 1989, Requiem pour un Empire défunt. Histoire de la destruction de l’Autriche-Hongrie. Paris: Lieu Commun.

  Ferguson, Niall, 2011, Civilization: The West and the Rest. Penguin.

  Fernandez, G., E. S. Spatz, C. Jablecki, P. S. Phillips, 2011, “Statin Myopathy: A Common Dilemma Not Reflected in Clinical Trials.” Cleveland Clinic Journal of Medicine 78(6): 393–403.

  Ferrante, Louis, 2011, Mob Rules: What the Mafia Can Teach the Legitimate Businessman. Penguin.

  Finch, C., V. Longo, A. Miyao, T. Morgan, I. Rozovsky, Y. Soong, M. Wei, Z. Xie, and H. Zanjani, 2001, “Inflammation in Alzheimer’s Disease.” In M.-F. Chesselet, ed., Molecular Mechanisms of Neurodegenerative Diseases, pp. 87–110.

  Fink, W., V. Lipatov, et al., 2009, “Diagnoses by General Practitioners: Accuracy and Reliability.” International Journal of Forecasting 25(4): 784–793.

  Finley, M. I., 1953, “Land, Debt, and the Man of Property in Classical Athens.” Political Science Quarterly 68(2): 249–268.

  Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2001, Making Social Science Matter: Why Social Inquiry Fails and How It Can Succeed Again. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  Flyvbjerg, Bent, and Alexander Budzier, 2011, “Are You Sitting on a Ticking Time Bomb?” Harvard Business Review, September.

  Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2009, “Survival of the Unfittest: Why the Worst Infrastructure Gets Built—and What We Can Do About It.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 25, No. 3, 344–367.

  Fossedal, G. A., and A. R. Berkeley III, 2005, Direct Democracy in Switzerland. Transaction Pub.

  Fourest, Caroline, and Fiametta Venner, 2010, Les interdits religieux. Éditions Dalloz.

  Franklin, James, 2001, The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

  Freedman, D. A., and D. B. Petitti, 2001, “Salt and Blood Pressure: Conventional Wisdom Reconsidered.” Evaluation Review 25(3): 267–287.

  Freedman, D., D. Collier, et al., 2010, Statistical Models and Causal Inference: A Dialogue with the Social Sciences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  Freeman, C., and L. Soete, 1997, The Economics of Industrial Innovation. London: Routledge.

  Freidson, Eliot, 1970, Profession of Medicine: A Study of the Sociology of Applied Knowledge. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

  French, Roger, 2003, Medicine Before Science: The Rational and Learned Doctor from the Middle Ages to the Enlightenment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  Froot, K. A., 2001, “The Market for Catastrophe Risk: A Clinical Examination,” Journal of Financial Economics 60(2–3): 529–571.

  Fujiwara, Y., 2004, “Zipf Law in Firms Bankruptcy.” Physica A: Statistical and Theoretical Physics 337: 219–30.

  Fukumoto, S., and T. J. Martin, 2009, “Bone as an Endocrine Organ.” Trends in Endocrinology and Metabolism 20: 230–236.

  Fuller, Steve, 2005, The Intellectual. Icon Books.

  García-Ballester, Luis, 1995, “Health and Medical Care in Medieval Galenism.” In Don Bates, ed., Knowledge and the Scholarly Medical Traditions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  Garland, Robert, 1998, Daily Life of the Ancient Greeks. Indianapolis: Hackett.

  Gauch, Ronald R., 2009, It’s Great! Oops, No It Isn’t: Why Clinical Research Can’t Guarantee the Right Medical Answers. Springer.

  Gawande, Atul, 2002, Complications: A Su
rgeon’s Note on an Imperfect Science. Picador.

  Geach, Peter, 1966, “Plato’s Euthyphro,” The Monist 50: 369–382.

  Geison, Gerald L., 1995, The Private Science of Louis Pasteur. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

  Gems, D., and L. Partridge, 2008, “Stress-Response Hormesis and Aging: That Which Does Not Kill Us Makes Us Stronger.” Cell Metabolism 7(3): 200–203.

  Gibbert, M. and P. Scranton, 2009, “Constraints as Sources of Radical Innovation? Insights from Jet Propulsion Development.” Management & Organizational History 4(4): 385.

  Gigerenzer, Gerd, 2008, “Why Heuristics Work.” Perspectives on Psychological Science 3(1): 20–29.

  Gigerenzer, Gerd, and H. Brighton, 2009, “Homo heuristicus: Why Biased Minds Make Better Inferences.” Topics in Cognitive Science 1(1): 107–143.

  Gigerenzer, Gerd, and W. Gaissmaier, 2011, “Heuristic Decision Making.” Annual Review of Psychology 62: 451–482.

  Gladwell, Malcolm, 2009, What the Dog Saw: And Other Adventures. Hachette Group.

  Glaeser, E., 2011, Triumph of the City: How Our Greatest Invention Makes Us Richer, Smarter, Greener, Healthier, and Happier. New York: Penguin

  Glaser, Scott, and Rinoo Shah, 2010, “Root Cause Analysis of Paraplegia Following Transforaminal Epidural Steroid Injections.” Pain Physician 13: 237–244.

  Gold, Rich, 2007, The Plenitude: Creativity, Innovation, and Making Stuff. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.

  Goldacre, B., 2007, “Benefits and Risks of Homoeopathy.” Lancet 370(9600): 1672–1673.

  Goldacre, B., 2009, Bad Science: Quacks, Hacks, and Big Pharme Flacks. London: Harper Perennial.

  Goldstein, D. G., and G. Gigerenzer, 1999, “The Recognition Heuristic: How Ignorance Makes Us Smart.”

  Goldstein, D. G., and G. Gigerenzer, 2002, “Models of Ecological Rationality: The Recognition Heuristic.” Psychological Review 109(1): 75.

  Goldstein, D. G., and N. N. Taleb, 2007, “We Don’t Quite Know What We Are Talking About When We Talk About Volatility,” Journal of Portfolio Management, Summer.

  Gott, J. Richard III, 1993, “Implications of the Copernican Principle for Our Future Prospects.” Nature 363(6427): 315–319.