Kanbei nodded and waited. When something was urgent, Hideyoshi was as focused as a ray of sun piercing through a line of trees. Now, when things were less urgent, he was starting to laugh and joke a little again. But both men knew the stakes.
Kanbei hadn’t waited long when Hideyoshi’s expression lit up in awareness, and he walked over to a sheaf of papers and took a particular letter out. Then the whimsical Hideyoshi was back, waving the letter at Kanbei and saying, “Here, Kanbei, read this.”
Kanbei scanned the letter first before reading it, noted the SHIBATA seal at the bottom and the tone, took in the handwriting, and only then read it thoroughly.
Kanbei nods slowly. “A conference, huh?”
“So you can see why I’m writing so many letters.”
Kanbei nods twice, slowly. “Indeed. The tone of the letter is meant to be formal and nonchalant at the same time; writing as if Buddha himself was transmitting enlightenment.”
“You saw it too.”
“It’s a scribe’s handwriting; Katsuie dictated it. But he didn’t write to you first.”
Hideyoshi gestures for Kanbei to continue.
Kanbei thinks, says: “Well, it’s practiced. The writing blends into itself; the writer has written nearly this same notice a few times already. It’s copied from an original, and was already figured out. It wasn’t taken in real time. So, Katsuie thought it through, dictated it, sat on it, and didn’t write to you first, which is… well, it’s not odd when you think about it, but it’s odd.”
Hideyoshi sighs. “Kanbei, are you thinking what I’m thinking?”
“I think we’re going to be at war again soon.”
***
VANTAGES #7: ANTICIPATION
Indeed, in Sunzi’s famous Art of War – which was well-known among the samurai and devotedly studied by the best generals – there are a variety of admonitions along those lines.
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
“What the ancients called a clever fighter is one who not only wins, but excels in winning with ease.”
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
Sunzi’s famous treatise became somewhat fashionable in the West following the success of Mao’s forces in the Chinese Civil War, and the “Japanese economic miracle” in manufacturing. It probably hit peak popularity in the United States in the 1980’s, and is occasionally favorably invoked.
That’s all well and good – it’s a good book – but it comes and goes in popularity. To apply the lessons of the book means reigning in one’s impulses, engaging in constant training and preparation, and – most difficult of all – cultivating foresight.
This is, of course, hard work. Unfortunately, hard work is never very popular, and hard work to develop one’s character and restrain one’s natural inclinations is probably the least popular thing of all. Change being hard and unenjoyable for most, the book tends to only be read when it’s in fashion, people mistakenly think they’ve “got it” without operationalizing any of its lessons, and then move on the next book with which to entertain themselves and make cocktail party chatter about.
It’s always hard to turn a mirror on oneself, and harder still to understand how one’s immediate present interacts with the near-future.
And yet, the Vantage of Anticipation is one of the most valuable at all.
Perhaps we can learn something of it, this chapter, from how Hideyoshi Toyotomi navigated the political and military situation in that monumental summer of 1582, which changed the destiny of the Japanese nation forever.
***
MONARCHY’S SUCCESSION PROBLEMS
It’s largely undisputed among non-ideological historians – across pretty much all of time and history; seriously, this isn’t just my personal assessment – that monarchy at its best outperforms democracy.
Monarchy at its worst, however, gives up all of the gains… and then some.
Succession is monarchy’s biggest problem – whenever an excellent monarch dies, very often a bloodbath follows. And thus, Augustus gave way to Tiberius who gave way to Caligula, Claudius, and Nero. Some time later, Marcus Aurelius’s wonderful reign gave way to Commodus’s whimsical brutality.
Similarly, Kaiser Wilhelm I’s son died unexpectedly of cancer within mere weeks of inheriting the German Empire’s throne, putting the unprepared and rash Wilhelm II in power – who dismissed Bismarck, antagonized Britain, and started the First World War which led Germany down into flames.
Oda Nobunaga – the First Great Unifier of Japan, who we got to know in Vantages #2: Below the Bar, #3: Morality on the March, and #4: Ends, Means, and Blindspots – was a cunning and strong ruler. He knew about succession problems and planned his succession well. His sudden death would have meant his eldest son, Oda Nobutada, would inherit leadership of the Oda Clan.
Nobutada was a young man who was meritorious and had good enough relationships with all of the Oda’s generals, allies, and subordinate lords. Had the “Great Unifier” Nobunaga died suddenly of illness, poison, or a ninja assassination, the Oda Clan would have likely survived and continued fine under Nobutada.
But it was completely unexpected for Nobunaga and Nobutada to be assassinated within one day of each other.
Do note, though, that Nobunaga died before Nobutada – meaning, the eldest son Nobutada was technically in charge of the Oda Clan for around a day before dying. This seems like a small detail, but will be critically important in a moment.
The naming conventions of the era can be somewhat confusing to Westerners trying to keep Japanese names and people from the same family in mind. There is nothing to be done about this; bear with me and I’ll try to make it as easy to understand as possible.
The dead Nobutada had two surviving younger brothers – Oda Nobuo, the “second son,” who was a moron and easily manipulated, and Oda Nobutaka, the “third son,” who was generally well-regarded and competent.
***
THE OTHER MAIN PLAYERS ON THE BOARD
You already know Hideyoshi Toyotomi – later, the “Second Great Unifier of Japan” – we covered him extensively in Vantages #5 Mastery Anywhere and Vantages #6: Crisis. He was an excellent general and diplomat, and – to this point in his life – had succeeded at everything he tried to do.
You already met Toyotomi’s right-hand man, the brilliant strategist Kuroda Kanbei, fiercely intelligent and fiercely loyal.
You should now learn two more names.
Shibata Katsuie: The eldest general of the Oda Clan. One of the two strongest surviving Oda Clan senior generals, along with Hideyoshi Toyotomi. Related to Nobunaga via marriage.
Sakuma Genba: Shibata Katsuie’s nephew and right-hand man. Young, brave, fiery, incredibly headstrong, fierce, brutal, unyielding. Extremely talented on the battlefield, but an arrogant bully off the battlefield.
There were around a half-dozen other important Oda generals and allies, who we’ll largely leave out of the story for simplicity’s sake, mentioning only a couple of them in the context of diplomacy and war.
Additionally, there were still many strong neutrals like the Mori Clan and nominal allies like the Tokugawa Clan; again, there were involved in the upcoming actions and weighed heavily on the minds of Hideyoshi and Kanbei, but who we’ll leave out of this chapter for simplicity’s sake.
***
ANALYSIS AND ANTICIPATION
After Nobunaga’s assassination, the Oda Clan’s surviving generals scrambled to punish the assassin. With brilliant speed in navigating the crisis, Hideyoshi Toyotomi covered a great distance unimaginably fast, linked up with “third son” Oda Nobutaka – the best general among the assassinated lord’s sons – and destroyed the assassin, staking his head at the site of the assassination.
Now Shibat
a Katsuie had called a conference at the Oda stronghold of Kiyosu Castle, with all senior generals and surviving sons attending. It would determine the succession and leadership of the Oda Clan, redistribute castles and lands and soldiers, and reorganize the clan militarily and politically.
Hideyoshi and Kanbei were planning for this conference as thoroughly as any major battlefield; indeed, the events that would happen inside Kiyosu Castle would determine the future of the Oda Clan, and perhaps, the entire Japanese nation.
Hideyoshi’s gentle whimsy had spread, and despite the momentous events to occur, all of Hideyoshi’s forces were smiling and happy.
Kanbei was in an unusually good mood, musing out loud – “Katsuie must be feeling bitter that he was not at the battlefield to avenge our lord’s death.”
The two men, though technically lord and senior retainer, were acting – as usual for them when in private – as old friends. They sipped tea and ate some light rice and fruit as they talked in the war room.
Hideyoshi replied, “Of course he is. He sent a congratulatory letter after we avenged Lord Nobunaga, but it was curt; he didn’t seem truly happy.”
“Of course not. As senior retainer, he should have been on that battlefield. Rumors are already starting that he was negligent in his duties.”
Hideyoshi nods again. “I suppose we’re, umm, not discouraging those rumors, eh?”
Both men laughed.
Hideyoshi continued, “It’s really not his fault, to speak honestly. Katsuie is an excellent #2, but a poor #1. He doesn’t know when to stop scheming and take action.”
Something registered with Kanbei and he stood up suddenly.
He cried out happily, “I’ve got it!”
“Oh?”
Kanbei walked Hideyoshi through his premises:
-- The useless Nobuo was technically “second son,” but he was actually a few weeks younger than the more talented “third son” Nobutaka.
-- They were born to different mothers. Nobuo’s mother was high-ranking and Nobutaka’s mother was low-ranking, so officially, Nobutaka was named “third son” – much to the later chagrin of all generals and retainers when Nobutaka turned out to be an excellent warrior, and Nobuo a useless headstrong fop.
-- Nobutaka was friends with Shibata Katsuie. Inevitably, Katsuie would want Nobutaka to inherit – Katsuie worked best under a strong #1… but Nobuo was technically the higher-ranking son.
-- The issue of birth times might be raised and readjusted; it would never happen in normal times, but these weren’t normal times.
Hideyoshi agreed with all of this assessment and beckoned to Kanbei to continue.
Kanbei grins, “So here’s what we can to do…”
***
A RISKY PLAN?
Hideyoshi delights in the plan, and they tentatively agree on it and draft initial letters and supporting documents to put it into action at the Kiyosu Conference.
The next day, Hideyoshi raises the obvious issue –
“Do you think Katsuie will try to kill us if the plan succeeds?”
Kanbei laughs. “Well, yes! Of course he will.”
Hideyoshi laughs too. “I mean, you know what I meant.”
Kanbei says, “Well, it’s just like you told me about your night on the pavilion – which way is the wind blowing?”
Kanbei and Hideyoshi worked in great harmony; often, the start of a brilliant thought in one of the men immediately processed into implications in the other’s mind.
With the reference to the wind, Hideyoshi immediately grasped all of the implications: “So you think, old friend, the question is not if Katsuie will try to kill us; the question is when; hence, we must be vigilant, but should strike first.”
Kanbei half-bowed. “My Lord, our minds are one.”
***
THE KIYOSU CONFERENCE: JULY 1582
Tension was written onto the faces of all the senior samurai of the Oda Clan.
Oda Nobuo – the “idiot second son” – was particularly unhappy.
His more talented half-brother, Oda Nobutaka, was seated closer to Shibata Katsuie, the most senior Oda Clan General. These small details burned permanently into the eyes of the samurai, with their culture of honor and status and insistence on rank.
Everyone knew how the opening scene of the coming drama would unfold – Katsuie and Nobutaka were quite close and did not hide the fact. Nobutaka was better in combat, and had been at the battle avenging his father’s death.
Katsuie would no doubt propose Nobutaka take the reins of the Oda Clan.
But then – what?
Would the technically-more-senior Nobuo accept or reject this settlement? Would he be paid off?
More importantly, what would Hideyoshi Toyotomi do? Toyotomi was poorly understood by these men; rising from a peasant servant to a samurai lord was unheard-of; it was the late Nobunaga’s policy to promote on merit and not rank. These policies served the deceased Lord of the Oda Clan well in his rise, but there was lingering bitterness and jealousy towards he who had been promoted so far above the station of his birth.
What were Hideyoshi’s motives now? He had been fiercely loyal to Nobunaga before his death, but what now? He was shrewd and cunning. It was known well-enough that Shibata Katsuie was not particularly fond of Hideyoshi; they were rivals for glory and favor to some extent. Hideyoshi always tried to downplay rivalrous behavior, but merit does shine through, and cuts bitterly into those who receive rank through the less-difficult mix of talent and birth position.
What would Hideyoshi do? Who was he, really? Would he demand to be bought off with gold and castles? Would he back the idiot Nobuo for leverage to then bargain it away?
The other samurai retainers filled into the hall, including a somewhat young captain who had served under the dead first son of Nobunaga, along with the only female in the room – a nurse holding a two-year-old child.
Lord Nobunaga’s grandson by his first son, Prince Sanposhi.
Katsuie frowned when Prince Sanposhi was brought into the room; this was unexpected and he had certainly not summoned the captain or nurse. Surely, they’d be at the funeral and receive a warm acknowledgement of the clan, but now the two-year-old was scurrying around, playing, crying. This was no place for a child.
Hideyoshi came in right before the meeting was scheduled to start, smiled and bowed slightly, but did not apologize for being the last into the room. Notably, he sat nowhere near the positions of honor – leaving a number of lower-ranked retainers between him and Katsuie.
Katsuie frowned. He feigns humility. But he and I have the most soldiers under our command. Any settlement needs him to sign off on it.
Hideyoshi elbows one of the younger generals sitting next to him and whispers something, and the man can’t help but laugh – a horrible breach of decorum, really, manners more fitting of an unwashed commoner more than a daimyo of the Oda Clan.
Katsuie, growing annoyed, calls out –
“Well, then! We’re all here. Thank you for coming. Can we remove the child from the room so we can begin?”
Hideyoshi clears his throat loudly but doesn’t speak.
No one moves.
Katsuie turns to the nurse and captain, and takes a breath, preparing to give an order, when just at that moment Hideyoshi preempts him –
“Lord Katsuie, it seemed proper to have the eldest grandson of the bloodline in the room. After all, we fight for his life and lifeblood, the son of the beloved Nobutada, killed by the soldiers of the monstrous traitor Mitsuhide…”
Hideyoshi, of course, did not say out loud, “… whom I hurried back from Takamatsu and killed to avenge our lord while you, Katsuie, were idle and dallying” – but he may as well have said it.
Katsuie flashes with annoyance, composes himself, and is about to speak again when Hideyoshi preempts him again –
“But it is very courteous to be worried about the young child’s well-being on such a hot day. Nurse, would you please take Prince Sanposhi t
o a cooler room? Captain, you may stay, of course.”
Katsuie grits his teeth. Hideyoshi is trying to embarrass me.
Katsuie, now firmly off his rhythm and authority, composes himself to speak again.
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