He draws in a breath to speak, is about to speak, but then pauses and the room lingers in quiet tension. Hideyoshi does not speak, though, so Katsuie is forced to exhale, compose himself again, and then speaks –
“Well, then. We’re here to determine the future of the Oda Clan.”
No one speaks.
Katsuie continues, “Does anyone have any suggestions?”
Katsuie looks at Hideyoshi in particular.
But no one speaks.
The air lingers; moments are tense. The third son, Nobutaka, looks expectantly at Katsuie. Nobuo, largely ignored, glowers at both of them.
A short time passes – it feels like a long time, but can’t have been more than a minute or two – and Katsuie speaks again,
“Well, then. I propose Lord Nobutaka take command of the clan. He is Nobunaga’s son, has proven himself on the battlefield, and will be a worthy successor to the Oda Clan.”
Nobutaka bows his head deferentially, politely, and prepares himself to speak the required modest words, when, just then, the wily ex-servant does it again.
“No, that will not do!” says Hideyoshi.
Everyone is startled at the bold declaration. In a complete breach of decorum, many of the generals in the room shift their position away from the seats of honor and turn towards the defiant Hideyoshi.
There is an old folk expression among American lawyers –
“When the facts are on your side, pound the facts. When the law is on your side, pound the law. When neither is on you side, pound the table.”
Katsuie has pounded the facts; now Hideyoshi pounds the law –
“The law of the Oda Clan is succession from father-to-son. Lord Nobunaga has brought our clan from an insignificant one in a precarious position, to the stewards of the nation. Tenka Fubu! The nation under one sword!”
There is stunned silence through the room. Nobutaka is looking enraged; Nobuo looks confused.
Hideyoshi continues, “With Lord Nobunaga’s death, we humble Oda Clan retainers came under the banner of his chosen successor, Lord Nobutada! And with Lord Nobutada’s death, Prince Sanposhi becomes our liege lord! These are our laws, and they must be upheld!”
Hideyoshi has argued the law – and there is some murmuring of agreement in the room.
Katsuie argues the facts –
“Hold on a moment! Prince Sanposhi is only two years old, and…”
Hideyoshi interrupts – “It’s the law, Katsuie. And our duty. Besides, the whole nation has said the Oda Clan has the greatest generals in the land – with us loyal senior retainers here to defend his rightful place, Prince Sanposhi will be perfectly safe.”
Shibata Katsuie was fuming, but couldn’t find a way to express the words. A few minutes later, before any real debate had happened, two generals allied to Hideyoshi both loudly proclaimed their support for the law and fulfilling their duty. The idiot Nobuo said he would support his nephew’s accession in accordance with the law.
Before Katsuie’s bloc had a chance to recover from the surprising turn of events, Hideyoshi had demanded a roll call of who would support the young Prince – starting from where he was seated, among the lowest of the samurai generals – and when it came to Katsuie’s turn, everyone had acceded without reservation. Katsuie felt compelled to pledge his support, but internally, it took all his discipline to choke back his rage.
***
NEUTRAL EYES AND THE VANTAGE OF ANTICIPATION
How do you cultivate foresight?
The biggest enemy is probably one’s own feelings – very rarely do we see the world with “neutral eyes” – purely objectively. Instead, we filter the world according to how optimistic or pessimistic we’re feeling.
The easiest way to get more predictive skill is to delete all personal narrative, feelings, and trivial details from your analysis.
Hideyoshi and Kanbei thus could have described the situation neutrally –
“There is a senior general of a clan, embarrassed after moving slowly in a crisis. He technically has more rank, but the general right behind him in rank, and a few years younger, has more troops and has won more victories. They are not friends and there’s been some dislike. The senior general works best behind the scenes and does not like to be in charge or advocate his own policies – he prefers to do work behind the scenes under the guidance of another.”
From there, you can infer Katsuie’s actions at the conference – he would support Nobutaka, since Katsuie preferred to scheme outside of the spotlight, and was somewhat slow and off-balance when in full command.
Moreover, you could also deduce another set of moves out of Katsuie – if he consolidated his supporters and became “the power behind the throne” of Nobutaka, inevitably his jealousy of Hideyoshi and the threat of Hideyoshi’s superior resources and soldiers would eventually lead to Katsuie and his allies calling for Hideyoshi’s arrest and death.
This might seem, on a quick look, like black magic. “You can’t really guess how people will act in six months or a year…”
But it’s not black magic, and you absolutely can infer their intentions.
Consider:
1. Hideyoshi was the single most powerful and prestigious general in Japan after avenging Nobunaga’s death.
2. Katsuie had been unhappy that Hideyoshi acted without him, upstaging him.
3. Katsuie and Hideyoshi had been somewhat rivalrous anyways before Nobunaga’s death.
4. Katsuie was terse and imperious towards Hideyoshi after the successful battle – Katsuie’s actions showed he mentally classified Hideyoshi as an enemy.
The last point is critical for Analysis and Anticipation.
Obviously, the second most powerful general in the land (Katsuie), if he was feeling anything between neutrality to friendliness towards the first most powerful general (Hideyoshi) would normally try to coordinate and negotiate the details behind the scenes and pre-agree on a settlement for Kiyosu.
By trying to keep Hideyoshi at arm’s length, Katsuie signaled plainly that he was afraid and suspicious of Hideyoshi. Otherwise, the expected and correct course of action would be to coordinate and negotiate with Hideyoshi before the Conference, feeling out his preferences and what settlement he would agree to.
Hideyoshi and Kanbei spotted these little “tells,” and prepared to both disrupt Katsuie’s plans for the Conference, and for war to break out afterwards.
Thus,
“So you think, old friend, the question is not if Katsuie will try to kill us; the question is when; hence, we must be vigilant, but should strike first.”
Which way is the wind blowing?
Indeed.
***
POWER AND THE OTHER SETTLEMENTS
There were remaining details to be negotiated and cleaned up at Kiyosu – a council of regents would rule and decide in Prince Sanposhi’s place. Nobuo and Nobutaka were logical to be on that council, as were Katsuie and Hideyoshi. Hideyoshi maneuvered to get one of the older generals favorable to his side to be the fifth regent, since he had been prepared for Sanposhi to take over and knew regents would be appointed, and Katsuie’s side had been surprised by Sanposhi’s accession whereas Hideyoshi had been prepared.
The next question is who would inherit the new lands conquered from the Mori, and the distribution of the lands of the traitor Mitsuhide, and of the slain Oda Clan leaders who had died in the assassination.
Hideyoshi perplexed Katsuie once again, though this is not so surprising once we have the lens of Anticipation for understanding.
Katsuie would have expected Hideyoshi to claim the lands he conquered from the Mori Clan, but he instead pledged these lands to neutral Oda Clan members who had served at the Battle of Yamazaki – further shoring up his support among these neutrals, as well as keeping his outlying lands far away from the still-hostile and embarrassed Mori Clan.
Hideyoshi, thinking ahead, had proposed the least grants of lands for both himself and Katsuie – surprising Katsuie, who relied more on legal
authority than charisma and friendship. With Hideyoshi relinquishing nearly all of his possible claims, it made it impossible for Katsuie to ask for the lands he wanted without appearing to be greedy and power-crazed.
Hideyoshi then, counterintuitively, suggested Nobutaka take the most powerful lands overseeing the Oda Clan, intentionally putting them into hostile hands; he asked for the idiot Nobuo to get richer, but safer lands away from the main action.
Finally, Hideyoshi shocked and upstaged Katsuie by preemptively offering his most important castle bordering Shibata lands to one of Katsuie’s adopted sons… the son who Katsuie was most alienated from, incidentally. Hideyoshi made some noises about that young man being most meritorious and demanding that that young man was the only one acceptable to take his former castle over. He went on with a somewhat elegant speech about how the Shibata clan should have its sons raised to prominence to serve the land, something along those lines.
In reality, Shibata Katsuie had a bad relationship with that son, but Hideyoshi’s words were elegant and – to the less critical observer – a very generous offering to the Shibata Clan. Hideyoshi, who had subdued the Mori and avenged Lord Nobunaga, was offering to have less lands and riches under his command than before the recent events transpired. This put neutral minds at ease, but also meant that Katsuie could not ask for any more than Hideyoshi.
Meanwhile, Hideyoshi was giving up all the lands he could not reasonably defend, while ensuring he could consolidate all his soldiers for the upcoming war, and that the board was as favorable as possible when – not if – war broke out.
All of these proposals were accepted, and Katsuie was once again furious at being outmaneuvered.
***
POUNDING THE TABLE
The Shibata rage boiled over.
Katsuie’s soldiers were the primary guards and garrison of Kiyosu Castle; Hideyoshi was in the midst of hostile forces.
At a banquet the next night following the settlements, Katsuie’s nephew and right-hand man Sakuma Genba starts drinking heavily and taunting Hideyoshi.
“Hey you, monkey, you used to be a servant right?”
Hideyoshi replied, “That’s right, Genba. I’ve been a proud servant of this Clan for a long time; I owe everything to Lord Nobunaga for raising me from a mere sandal-bearer to soldier…“
“Well monkey, why don’t you serve us then! Pour me a drink!”
Genba, the headstrong and brave man in his late 20’s, did not quite understand Hideyoshi. He himself would have bristled at being talked to like this; if an argument broke out, he could challenge Hideyoshi to a duel or otherwise cut him down; they were surrounded by Shibata guards and soldiers, after all. And Genba was physically stronger, bigger, and more young and spry than the 45-year-old wiry Hideyoshi.
“Lord Genba, it is a pleasure to serve the next generation. I am honored to pour you a drink.”
Hideyoshi moves slowly, buying himself time to assess the developing situation. A single mis-step would be fatal.
He took some sake and glasses from a nearby attendant, and poured, when Genba grabbed the cup from Hideyoshi – a terrible breach of etiquette – and downed it one go.
“Too small! Get a bigger cup, monkey, we’re warriors here!”
“Very well.”
Hideyoshi got a large flagon and poured a large drink for Genba.
“You drink it first, monkey! Drink to our dead lord’s memory!”
“Oh, Genba, I’m not such a drinker. This old body is not as strong as yours. Please, go ahead.”
“You won’t drink, then?”
“I’m afraid I’ve already drank too much and the funeral service is tomorrow. As much as I’d like to enjoy myself with you and your company, it would be a breach of my duty to enjoy myself too much.”
The young man snarled now – “You’re a coward, Hideyoshi!”
Everyone was on full tension. No one could see them, but inevitably the guards waiting in the adjoining rooms would be at full tension.
“I’m not as strong as you, Genba, and we’ve all been drinking. Actually, I feel a little sick. Please excuse me.”
And without asking for permission, Hideyoshi withdrew from the room in one strong motion.
The guards standing by the doorway were surprised to see Hideyoshi and flinched; they were poised to kill on an order from Genba, but had not expected Hideyoshi to simply… walk past them.
He saw the guards, bowed deeply, and said: “Please look after Lord Genba; these are such trying times.”
This, once again, gave him just the few seconds of confusion needed to walk down the hallway and out of sight, even as Genba was yelling after him.
Usually calm and collected, Hideyoshi broke into a full sprint once out of sight, not stopping until he was back at his own lodging quarters outside of the castle.
That night, Hideyoshi and Kanbei drafted a letter apologizing that, due to Hideyoshi having a sudden bout of extreme illness, he would have to depart Kiyosu immediately.
Hideyoshi’s soldiers had already been prepared to move out, and they took an unexpected path home that was not guarded heavily by Shibata loyalists. By the time the order came to pursue and arrest Hideyoshi, he was already long gone.
***
ANTICIPATION
The war came the next year.
Having read the situation correctly and worked his diplomatic art, Katsuie’s alienated adopted son defected to Hideyoshi’s side, and Hideyoshi reclaimed his most important castle bordering Shibata lands without any bloodshed.
By the time the Shibata/Toyotomi war began, Hideyoshi had 3 soldiers for every 2 under the Shiabata command: better odds, but not decisive.
The Shibata began the hostilities, and Hideyoshi – almost always an offensive general to this point in his life – dug in on the strategic defensive.
Under Kanbei’s guidance, the Toyotomi forces made a very risky maneuver – nearly within gun range of Shibata forces, they refused to engage the Shibata and instead built forward bases, doing battlefield engineering within attack range of the Shibata.
Kanbei and Hideyoshi had once again read Katsuie correctly – had the Shibata launched an all-out attack while the Toyotomi forces were in the midst of battlefield engineering, it might have been a disaster.
But Katsuie was never quite comfortable in full command, and he hesitated again. Within a few weeks, the Toyotomi both outnumbered the Shibata and had dug into a strong defensive position that isolated the main Shibata forces away from Oda Nobutaka’s.
Hideyoshi then started attritioning away at Oda Nobutaka – the Shibata had appeared, on a map, to hold a unified defensive terrain after the Kiyosu settlement. But the bloodless defection and return of Hideyoshi’s most strategic castle to him had cut the Shibata lines in half.
Genba was raging. “Why do we let them whittle away at us! We have to attack!”
It is, of course, very much against gunpowder-era military doctrine to all-out attack defensive fortifications when outnumbered.
Hideyoshi had isolated Katsuie; he was forced to make decisions on his own. A strong #2 but ineffective and vacillating #1, Sakuma Genba became the loudest voice in the Shibata camp.
There is an open question to me of whether Hideyoshi and Kanbei had intentionally left a few of the forts on their flanks poorly defended to invite attack – the period sources say the Toyotomi were surprised when some of their secondary fortresses were overrun by Genba in battle, but I don’t necessarily believe it’s true. It would very much suit later Toyotomi propaganda to both claim they were fighting a defensive war and to not allow future adversaries to know that they had intentionally left a weak point in their lines to bait an attack; indeed, it’s the same tactic they would try in their next major conflict.
Regardless of whether it was an intentional strategic masterstroke, or a negligence that turned out fatefully happy, Genba overran some of the secondary Toyotomi forces.
At this point, Katsuie liked their position and repeatedl
y sent orders to Genba to consolidate the gains and withdraw.
Genba would not listen. He pushed deeper and deeper into the Toyotomi forces, until finding himself completely surrounded.
And then, fatefully, his relief corps under Maeda Inuchiyo – a childhood friend of Hideyoshi’s – withdrew from the battlefield, leaving Genba completely surrounded.
His forces were cut to pieces and Genba was captured.
The battle had started with 50,000 men under Toyotomi’s command and 30,000 under Shibata’s. But with Genba’s defeat and Maeda’s withdrawal from the battlefield, suddenly the neutrals under Shibata saw the inevitable and defected.
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