MACHINA

by Sebastian Marshall

  Since then, I’ve nearly completely switched my orientations – these days, I have a “Doctrine” file that lists the only five things I’ll do: writing TSR, building GiveGetWin, building Ultraworking, training in one Impact Area, and the basic “stay sane” stuff like health, adherence, and spending whatever time I can with my closest friends.

  I still have the Romantic skillset in my toolbox – I can take bold actions to get going things going from scratch – but I was tempered and hardened by all the failure, and spent the last few years constantly training in operations, systems, consistency, habits, thoroughness, slowing down and doing everything as correctly as possible – deferring new projects until everything currently happening is guaranteed to succeed, and all the gains have been harvested.

  ***

  AN ACUTE STRIKE OF ROMANCE

  Hideyoshi Toyotomi, though, had experienced almost no failure on his rise to success.

  On his death bed, Tokugawa Ieyasu – the final Great Unifier of Japan – would collect a “testament” of guidance for his descendants.

  In it, one line sticks out to this amateur historian as having not been remarked enough through the ages –

  “If thou only knowest what it is to conquer, and knowest not what it is to be defeated; woe unto thee, it will fare ill with thee.”

  I’ve heard no one else say it, but I think Ieyasu must have been referring to Hideyoshi when he said it. Who else could he have been referring to?

  Toyotomi Hideyoshi had risen from peasant sandal-bearer, to soldier, to officer, to Oda Clan General, to samurai lord (daimyo), to de facto ruler of the Oda Clan in the aftermath of Nobunaga’s assassination, to ruler of all Japan – Kampaku, Grand Regent – through a mix of risky bets that had all paid off.

  All along, though, he had leaned on Kuroda Kanbei – who would take risks, but balanced them with a strong cautious Classical streak – and he successfully consolidated most of his gains.

  In full control of Japan, Hideyoshi had consolidated all of his gains. In January 1582, after Hideyoshi’s first son and half-brother had both died of natural causes, he named his nephew – his beloved sister’s son Hidetsugu – his heir. Hidetsugu was 23 years old, a seasoned battlefield commander, and well-respected by all the Toyotomi officers.

  Hideyoshi, correctly, officially retired as “Kampaku” and turned the title and official job of ruling Japan over to Hidetsugu; Hideyoshi took the title “Taiko” – Retired Grand Regent.

  Had Hideyoshi died in 1582, his family would almost certainly have gone on to rule Japan in the way that Tokugawa would later rule.

  But, in the year 1582, at the age of 56 years old, Hideyoshi still very much alive and feeling rather bored just a few months into retirement.

  Feeling restless, his Romantic Inclinations kicked in.

  ***

  WHAT RISK?

  And thus began the beginning of the end of the Toyotomi Clan.

  Wikipedia: Hideyoshi Toyotomi: Decline of Power –

  “With Hideyoshi's health beginning to falter, but still yearning for some accomplishment to solidify his legacy, he adopted Oda Nobunaga's dream of a Japanese conquest of China and launched the conquest of the Ming dynasty by way of Korea.”

  Hideyoshi Toyotomi had risen from an unknown peasant sandal-bearer, to soldier, to general, to samurai lord, to leader of the Oda Clan, to ruler of all of Japan – but it was not enough for him.

  When the Korean Kingdom refused to allow the Toyotomi forces safe passage through to fight China, Ishida Mitsunari was soon leading a 158,000 soldier invasion, taking many of the best and most loyal Toyotomi officers and soldiers with him.

  ***

  PRINCESS CHACHA’S REVENGE

  When Hideyoshi Toyotomi’s forces had defeated Shibata Katsuie 10 years earlier in 1583, Katsuie’s three step-daughters had been escorted from the castle and given safe passage to Hideyoshi’s camp.

  The oldest was Princess Chacha, 14 years old at the time. She watched her mother and step-father die in the flames of Katsuie’s castle.

  She was noted for her immense beauty right away, but many surviving sources noted Hideyoshi’s loyal retainers and his faithful first wife Nene taking an immediate dislike the princess. Something was… off… about her.

  Perhaps it’s understandable – seeing your parents die and your home burned to the ground at age 14 must be a scarring experience.

  Over the next 10 years, she became first the concubine, then the wife of Hideyoshi Toyotomi.

  More than anything else in the world, Hideyoshi had wanted a son of his own. He had been unable to conceive with his wife Nene or with any of his concubines.

  I’ve talked with many Japanese who know the history well, and it’s widely-agreed that Hideyoshi was almost certainly impotent; for whatever reason, he could not conceive a child with his first wife or any of his many consorts across the first 50 years of his life.

  But with the Hideyoshi at the age of 50, Princess Chacha was able to conceive. She gave birth to two sons over the next six years. The supposed first son died young, the second – Hideyori – was to be the ruin of the Toyotomi Clan.

  A Japanese professor’s take on Chacha and Hideyori –

  “"Toyotomi Hideyori was an illegitimate child," claims a Kyushu University professor. Toyotomi Hideyori (1593-1615) was not Hideyoshi's biological son…”

  “Hideyoshi, in spite of having many wives, was not blessed with an abundance of children. His relationship with the concubine Chacha, which he consummated when he was over 50 years old, was the only one that produced children - the prematurely born Tsurumatsu, followed by Hideyori.”

  “From the early Edo period theories abounded that Hideyori's father was Ono Harunaga, a retainer of the Toyotomi household […] It was at this stage that Professor Hattori, after calculating backwards from Hideyori's birthday on the 3rd day of the 8th month of Bunroku 2 (1593), examined whether Hideyoshi and Chacha could have shared the same bed on or around the 4th of the 11th month of the previous year…”

  The Professor constructed a number of diaries of the era. His conclusion? Hideyori could not, in fact, have been Hideyoshi’s son.

  ***

  HIDETSUGU’S END, AND THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE TOYOTOMI

  Princess Chacha is one of the most hated figures in Japanese history – Hideyoshi is seen as a nationally treasured figure in Japan for his miraculous rise, reforms, and brilliance through the first 50 years of his career… but the last decade of his life un-did the Toyotomi Clan entirely.

  Whereas the Japanese men I’ve met and discussed history with largely blame Hideyoshi for the failings at the end of his illustrious career, the Japanese women I’ve discussed history with universally revile Chacha as one of the worst people in Japanese history.

  In 1595, at Chacha’s urging, Hideyoshi ordered the execution of his sister’s son and his adult heir Hidetsugu, naming Chacha’s (likely illegitimate) son Hideyori as his heir instead.

  Perhaps he was slipping in old age, but earlier in his career, Hideyoshi had largely been merciful whenever possible to secondary figures and family members of the defeated. But with Hidetsugu’s death – and likely at Chacha’s urging – his whole household was butchered.

  Wikipedia: Toyotomi Hidetsugu –

  “Controversially, Hideyoshi ordered the execution of Hidetsugu's entire family, including children, wives and mistresses, at Sanjogawara. The harshness and brutality of executing 39 women and children shocked Japanese society and alienated many Daimyos from Toyotomi rule. Combined with the fact that Hidetsugu was the last adult member of the Toyotomi clan besides Hideyoshi himself, the whole incident is often seen to be one of the key causes of the Toyotomi downfall. In a particularly tragic case, Hideyoshi refused to spare the life of Mogami Yoshiaki's 15-year-old daughter, who had only just arrived in Kyoto to become Hidestugu's concubine and had not yet even met her husband-to-be. Her death caused the powerful Mogami clan to zealously support Tokugawa Ieyasu in the Battle of Sekiga
hara against Toyotomi loyalist forces, a mere 5 years later.”

  ***

  AS THE ROMANTIC UNMAKES THE CLASSICAL

  Well, this has ended on an unpleasant note, no?

  My apologies. Hideyoshi’s career was so brilliant and beautiful for the first 50 years of it, but in the end, he was unable to stop.

  But do note, this all actually happened.

  Those of us who strive and take risks should learn well these lessons – many brilliant world-building type people rise through taking Romantic risks at various times in their lives, but are unable to stop themselves and shift into Classical Play when risks are no longer called-for.

  The Invasion of Korea was certainly a Romantic type risk, and really quite foolish for the Toyotomi to dispatch from his newly unified Japan…

  … he might have even gotten away with that, though, if both himself and Princess Chacha had not behaved so romantically in pursuit of sole power for their young son – at least, Chacha’s son – at the expense of the talented and solid Hidetsugu.

  Remember –

  The classical player carefully maximizes his minimum gains.

  The romantic player tries to maximize his maximum gain, at the cost of increasing potential loss.

  Toyotomi Hideyoshi ruled the Nation of Japan, his succession was secure through his nephew, but he could not stop taking risks – he wanted maximum gain… even at the cost of increasing potential loss.

  And they would, indeed, lose everything.

  ***

  LEARNING WELL THE LESSONS OF CLASSICAL AND ROMANTIC PLAY

  The three main takeaways you should learn –

  1. You should be able to identify Classical and Romantic Play in other people, and their natural motivations. It has immense predictive power.

  2. You should be able to identify what situations you are playing Romantically, and what situations you are playing Classically. You should always know which is which.

  3. If you’re playing Romantically, you absolutely must learn when to stop and shift gears to Classical. Contrast George Washington, Otto von Bismarck, Mustafa Kemal, Deng Xiaoping, and Tokugawa Ieyasu with Hideyoshi Toyotomi, Napoleon Bonaparte, Adolf Hitler, Alexander of Macedon, etc. Choosing “Romantic Play indefinitely” has, historically, a very predictable outcome.

  Please study this thoroughly. This concept is incredibly useful, and potentially life-changing.

  ***

  AUTUMN ARRIVES

  With the world at peace, messengers were not often hurrying at a gallop like they used to back in the day.

  In the summer of 1595, when one of Hanzo’s ninja arrived at a furious pace and requested immediately to meet Lord Tokugawa, it was of course granted immediately.

  When informed of Hidetsugu’s execution, Ieyasu simply replied –

  “Huh. Well, that’s a curious decision.”

  Shortly afterwards, Tokugawa Ieyasu was named to the “Council of Five Regents” to govern Japan if Hideyoshi died before his new child heir came of age.

  Three years later, in the Autumn of 1598, one of the Tokugawa ninja again came galloping at a furious pace.

  “Lord Hideyoshi has died.”

  Ieyasu nods and shows no expression on his face.

  The Civil War would shortly break out anew.

  Vantages #10: Patience

  A CONFUSING SCENE

  What’s going on here?

  The servants had come to leave dinner for Ishida Mitsunari in his jail cell, but hadn’t shut the door behind themselves, leaving it ajar.

  Mitsunari didn’t bother looking outside his cell for a couple hours, but eventually curiosity got the better of him and he walked outside carefully, mouthing, “Umm, I’ve finished, here’s the empty plates, thank you…”

  No reply.

  And no guards.

  What’s going on here?

  He walked a few paces into the open air in the castle grounds.

  There’s no one here. Is this a trick? Are they going to cut me down, or humiliate me in some way?

  Mitsunari walks a little further, still holding a dirty plate in his hand as though it would be his salvation if guards challenged him.

  Well, they said they were going to execute me anyways. They don’t need a pretense to cut me down.

  And so, Mitsunari drops the plate and runs towards the castle wall, scrambling up the ramparts.

  There’s no guards within sight here, either.

  Excited by this sudden reprieve from death, the uncaged bird does not think but instead flies over the side of the wall and tumbles into the moat, gets up, and runs for his life westwards.

  ***

  WELL, I SUPPOSE WE SHOULD PUNISH THIS NEGLIGENCE

  It is the year 1599 and Ieyasu’s old friend, the incomparable ninja chief Hattori Hanzo, had died three years prior. His eldest son Hattori Masanari was not as sharp as the father, but this mission was simple enough.

  Masanari and Ieyasu were alone, and knowing Masanari did not have the long decades with which to understand his tone of voice, Ieyasu made the orders very simple and plain –

  Ieyasu begins, “Since I suppose we really should punish this, umm, negligence… two things must be done.”

  Ieyasu continues, “The first is that we should send out patrols. I want you to direct them. Make sure the men look hurried and upset, but umm, don’t catch up with Mitsunari even if you can. Don’t send anyone who is reckless, innovative, or a glory-hunting type. The last thing we need is someone to cut him down and ruin the plan.”

  Masanari nods. Ieyasu finishes, “Secondly, technically someone ought to be punished. There’s two guards selected for the role, take them off to be “executed” but keep them safe in the mountains… but have your people watch over them – have them shave their heads and dress as monks at the temple, but always keep your ninja around. The men selected don’t have families and have agreed to the role, so it should be fine, but no letters and no wandering the mountain retreat – no one can know they’re alive until the aftermath. They’ll enjoy a nice rest in the mountains and be rewarded afterwards.”

  Masanari nods again.

  The Tokugawa patrols came scampering out the morning after Mitsunari’s escape, making a big show of looking very upset and searching nearby villages – villages that they already knew Mitsunari hadn’t passed through.

  The rumors spread thus – Tokugawa Ieyasu was furious at Ishida Mitsunari’s daring escape; people had been executed as a result.

  For a while, Ishida Mitsunari wondered how it had happened, but eventually he convinced himself it was due to his own bravery and brilliance.

  The proud General Ishida did not clarify or contradict the rumors of the daring near-run escape.

  ***

  FATHER, I DON’T UNDERSTAND

  In that year, Tokugawa Ieyasu was feeling strong at 56 years old.

  His third son and heir, Hidetada, had just turned 20 years old.

  Hidetada had been held hostage by Hideyoshi during the Siege of Odawara, at 11 years old, insurance against Tokugawa Ieyasu defecting to the Hojo Clan.

  Thus, though well-trained in scholarship and the theory of war, Hidetada had never seen his father in combat and not set foot on the battlefield himself.

  Some days after the “escape” of Ishida Mitsunari, father and son were walking outdoors together and talking.

  “Father, I don’t understand – he tried to have you assassinated! Why did you let Mitsunari escape?”

  “Shh, lower your voice. Our outrider-guards are loyal and far enough from earshot, but wars have been lost over smaller details leaking out.”

  Hidetada blushes. “Sorry!” he says quietly.

  Ieyasu replies quietly, “No, don’t be sorry, it’s a good question.”

  In no hurry to speak, Ieyasu takes his slow and steady steps and time passes. Hidetada knows better than to interrupt or interject, and walks alongside his father slowly.

  “Obviously, son, you know some of our history. But – again
obviously – we don’t talk too much about the early days when I was a hostage at the Imagawa Court.”

  Ieyasu walks a little longer, mentally composing his sentences.

  “You were a hostage – technically – at 11 years old. But Hideyoshi always wanted to please and entertain his guests, and technically Hideyoshi and I were allies at that time, and there was not so much danger of a fight breaking out between us. When I was a hostage, it was a very different time.”