Blackett's War

by Stephen Budiansky

  THIS IS A BORZOI BOOK

  PUBLISHED BY ALFRED A. KNOPF

  Copyright © 2013 by Stephen Budiansky

  All rights reserved. Published in the United States by Alfred A. Knopf, a division of Random House, Inc., New York, and in Canada by Random House of Canada Limited, Toronto.

  www.aaknopf.com

  Knopf, Borzoi Books, and the colophon are registered trademarks of Random House, Inc.

  Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

  Budiansky, Stephen.

  Blackett’s war : the men who defeated the Nazi u-boats and brought science to the art of warfare / by Stephen Budiansky.—1st ed.

  p. cm.

  Includes bibliographical references.

  eISBN: 978-0-307-96263-8

  1. World War, 1939–1945—Radar. 2. World War, 1939–1945—Naval operations—Submarine. 3. Antisubmarine warfare—History—20th century. 4. World War, 1939–1945—Atlantic Ocean. 5. Blackett, P. M. S. (Patrick Maynard Stuart), Baron Blackett, 1897–1974. I. Title.

  D810.R33B79 2013

  940.54′516—dc23 2012025272

  Front-of-jacket photograph : U.S. Navy radar scope, World War II.

  National Archives and Records Administration/Photo Researchers Inc.

  Jacket design by Joe Montgomery

  Maps and diagrams by Dave Merrill

  v3.1

  To Ralph Erskine

  Contents

  Cover

  Title Page

  Copyright

  Dedication

  Preface

  Maps

  Chronology

  1. An Unconventional Weapon

  2. Cruelty and Squalor

  3. Cambridge

  4. Defiance and Defeatism

  5. Remedial Education

  6. Blackett’s Circus

  7. The Real War

  8. Baker’s Dozen

  9. Closing the Gaps

  10. A Very Scientific Victory

  11. Political Science

  Notes

  Bibliography

  Illustration Credits

  A Note About the Author

  Illustration Insert

  Other Books by This Author

  Preface

  FROM 1941 TO 1943, a small group of British and American scientists, almost entirely without military experience or knowledge, revolutionized the way wars are run and won.

  Applying the basic tools of their trade—a thoroughly scientific mind-set backed by little more than simple mathematics and probability theory—they repeatedly demonstrated to disbelieving admirals and generals ways to double or triple the effectiveness of the faltering Allied campaign against the German U-boats. In the grim fight for control of the Atlantic during those years of uncertainty, the scientists’ unconventional insights achieved the near-miraculous in a battle crucial to the larger struggle to defeat Hitler’s Germany.

  The scientists who beat the U-boats never numbered more than a hundred in all, a fraction of the thousands who worked to achieve the two far better known triumphs of science in the war, the breaking of the German Enigma cipher and the making of the atomic bomb. Yet they were a collection of scientific talent the likes of which probably has never been seen before or since, certainly the oddest such collection ever assembled in one place: among them were physicists, chemists, botanists, physiologists, geneticists, insurance actuaries, economists, mathematicians, and astronomers. Six would win the Nobel Prize, in physics, chemistry, or medicine. Most were far to the left in their politics: some of the best were out-and-out Marxists, and more than a few had been committed pacifists who had come to see the defeat of the Nazis as a cause that overrode their abhorrence of war. Many were almost caricatures of the sort of unmilitary, awkward, overly intellectual civilians that military men routinely viewed with undisguised contempt.

  That they were there when they were so desperately needed was the extraordinary result of a confluence of events and circumstances that I have set out to describe in the following pages: the onrush of devastating reality after decades of complacency toward the submarine menace, a political awakening of scientists brought about by the Great Depression and the rise of fascism, struggles within the militaries of Britain and the United States that pitted tradition against technical innovation and social change, and the appearance in the right place of a few unconventional political and military leaders who respected science—and of a few phenomenally accomplished scientists of great moral courage and unshakable intellectual integrity.

  Patrick Blackett, a British physicist, ex–naval officer, future Nobel winner, and ardent socialist, stood at the forefront of those scientists of penetrating insight and courage. It is no exaggeration to say that few men did more to win the war against Nazi Germany than Patrick Blackett. Certainly, few who did as much as he did have been so little remembered. Partly that is because he was a difficult, private, and inner-directed man whose political views and personality did not age well in the postwar world. Most people today—myself included—will find his uncritical admiration for Stalin’s Soviet Union and his doctrinaire social Marxism painfully naive, at best. But it is worth remembering that that same naïveté was the source of an idealism that we can only wish there was more of today: whatever else, Patrick Blackett was fired by a sense of justice, righteousness, and self-sacrificing courage that drove him to serve his country, and the cause of civilization itself, at the time of their utmost need.

  As director of the antisubmarine analysis effort for the Royal Air Force and Royal Navy during World War II, Blackett not only helped win that battle, and the war, but in so doing founded the new science of operational research; it has been an indispensable part of military training and planning ever since, a revolution in the application of science to the art of warfare.

  It is far from clear that he or any of his colleagues from those perilous and heroic days of the scientific war against the U-boats would have the chance to make such an original contribution today. The bureaucratic machinery of war has become too vast and cumbersome to leave room for the gifted improvisation and iconoclastic thinking that Blackett and his colleagues brought to bear; today’s routine incorporation of science in military affairs, which they themselves helped to bring about, has ironically sharpened the lines between military and civilian expertise; and science itself has become ever more narrow, specialized, and competitive, to the point that few scientists with the intensity to achieve discoveries worthy of a Nobel Prize have time left to think about much else.

  Which is our loss, and which makes their story all the more worth telling.

  Chronology

  1868

  British engineer Robert Whitehead, working at his factory in Croatia, develops a practical self-running torpedo.

  1881

  American inventor John P. Holland begins trials on the Hudson River of a prototype of the first true modern submarine, dubbed by the press the Fenian Ram, June.

  1897

  Patrick Blackett is born in London, November 18.

  1900

  U.S. Navy takes delivery of its first submarine, the Holland VI, April 11.

  1903

  British naval college at Osborne opens as part of Admiral Jacky Fisher’s scheme to expand the number of officer cadets and increase the rigor of their scientific training.

  1906

  German navy acquires a single submarine for evaluation, the last major naval power to do so.

  1909

  London Declaration, signed by all major European powers and the United States, reaffirms the rights of neutral shipping in wartime and the duty of belligerents to safeguard the passengers and crew of enemy or neutral merchant vessels taken as prizes.

  1910

  Blackett, age twelv
e, enters Osborne as a naval cadet, September.

  1914

  War begins in Europe, August 1.

  Britain declares the entire North Sea a “war zone” and institutes a blockade of all supplies “ultimately” destined for Germany, an act not sanctioned by international law, November 2.

  Blackett is a midshipman on the cruiser Carnarvon at the Battle of the Falkland Islands, December 8.

  1915

  Germany declares the waters around Britain a war zone and warns that its submarines may not be able to distinguish enemy and neutral ships, February 18.

  Cunard liner Lusitania is sunk by a torpedo fired by a German submarine, killing 1,198 including 128 Americans, May 7.

  After the sinking of two more British passenger vessels, Germany withdraws its U-boats from British waters following strong American protests, September.

  1916

  Blackett is at the Battle of Jutland aboard the battleship Barham, May 31.

  1917

  German U-boat force reaches 120 operational boats, January.

  On the Kaiser’s orders, U-boats commence an “unrestricted campaign” against British shipping, sinking merchant vessels without warning, February 1.

  Sinkings by U-boats surpass 500,000 tons a month, February and March.

  Citing Germany’s abandonment of “all restraints of law or of humanity” in its U-boat campaign, America declares war on Germany, April 6.

  After months of resistance, the British Admiralty agrees to begin convoying merchant ships, leading ultimately to a dramatic decline in sinkings by U-boats, late April.

  1918

  Prototype of asdic, or sonar, for detecting submerged submarines is tested aboard a British research vessel.

  With its army collapsing, the German government accedes to American insistence upon an immediate halt to the U-boat war as a condition for peace negotiations, October 20.

  Armistice ending the Great War, November 11.

  In compliance with terms of the Armistice, 114 German U-boats surrender at Harwich, November 20–December 1.

  1919

  Blackett arrives at Cambridge, January 25.

  1921

  Blackett graduates from Cambridge with a first in physics and is awarded a research fellowship to the Cavendish Laboratory.

  1922

  German navy establishes a Dutch front company, IvS, to begin secretly building submarines in violation of the Versailles treaty, April.

  1926

  General strike in Britain, May 3–13.

  1933

  Nazi Party takes power as Hitler becomes chancellor of Germany, January 30.

  Blackett announces at the Royal Society his discovery of the positron, for which he will later be awarded the Nobel Prize in physics, February 16.

  Blackett moves to University of London, autumn.

  1934

  Physicists at Cavendish Laboratory sign a protest against the use of science for military purposes, June.

  Professor F. A. Lindemann writes to The Times urging the scientific investigation of air defenses against bomber attack, August 8.

  1935

  Committee for the Scientific Survey of Air Defence begins work, with Henry Tizard as chairman and Blackett as a member, January 28.

  The committee conducts the first experiment establishing the feasibility of detecting aircraft with radio waves, the genesis of radar, February 26.

  British government announces Anglo-German Naval Treaty, abrogating restrictions of the Versailles treaty and permitting Germany to build a submarine force equal to Britain’s while pledging its adherence to international prize law in submarine warfare, June 21.

  1937

  Blackett moves to University of Manchester.

  The term “operational research” is coined by A. P. Rowe to describe the work of a scientific section at the RAF’s Bawdsey Research Station studying the integration of radar into the British fighter defense system.

  1938

  Britain and France accede at Munich to Hitler’s takeover of German-speaking areas of Czechoslovakia, September 29.

  1939

  German troops occupy the rest of Czechoslovakia, March 15.

  Hitler denounces Anglo-German Naval Treaty, April 28.

  German U-boat fleet ordered to sea, August 15.

  Germany invades Poland, beginning World War II, September 1.

  Winston Churchill joins British government as first lord of the Admiralty; the British passenger liner Athenia is torpedoed by a U-boat off Ireland the same day, September 3.

  British aircraft carrier Courageous is torpedoed in the Bristol Channel, September 18.

  Hitler discusses with his naval commanders gradually removing restrictions of international law on U-boat operations, September 23.

  British battleship Royal Oak is torpedoed by a U-boat at Scapa Flow, October 13.

  Hitler approves sinking without warning British and French merchantmen, October 16.

  Karl Dönitz, the commander-in-chief of U-boats, issues standing order No. 154, instructing submarine commanders not to rescue passengers and crew from torpedoed ships, late November or early December.

  1940

  Following Germany’s invasion of France, Churchill becomes prime minister, May 10.

  Tots and Quots club agrees to produce the Penguin book Science in War, urging broader application of science to the war effort, June 12; Blackett likely contributes the section on operational research.

  President Franklin Roosevelt approves Vannevar Bush’s proposal to establish a National Defense Research Council, June 12.

  France surrenders, June 21.

  Just completed radar warning network along the British coast allows RAF Fighter Command to successfully fight off the Luftwaffe in the Battle of Britain, July–September.

  U-boats begin operating from bases in France, July.

  Equipped with more reliable torpedoes and aided by decrypted British radio reports on convoy movements, U-boats sink one million tons of shipping, July–September.

  Tizard proposes to Churchill an exchange of technical information with American scientists and departs for Washington, August.

  Blackett becomes scientific adviser to AntiAircraft Command and begins applying operational research methods to problems of radar and antiaircraft gunnery, August.

  Night attacks by German bombers on British cities begin, September.

  1941

  Blackett becomes chief of the newly created Operational Research Section of RAF Coastal Command (“Blackett’s Circus”), March.

  Churchill issues Battle of the Atlantic Directive, ordering British forces to “take the offensive” against the U-boats, March 6.

  The first ASV (anti–surface vessel) radar units are installed on British warships escorting Atlantic convoys, spring.

  British code breakers at Bletchley Park, using captured materials from U-110, achieve their first sustained success deciphering German naval Enigma messages, May.

  Hitler invades Russia, June 22.

  Blackett’s recommendation to change the camouflage color of Coastal Command aircraft doubles U-boat sightings per flying hour, summer.

  Blackett is the sole dissenter on a British government panel that recommends the development of an atomic bomb by Britain; Blackett proposes discussing collaboration with an American program instead, July.

  U.S. Marines land in Iceland and U.S. Navy begins escorting Atlantic convoys, July.

  E. J. Williams, a member of Blackett’s group, completes a study showing that the effectiveness of air attacks against U-boats can be improved by a factor of 10 through a simple adjustment in the depth setting and spacing of depth charges, September 11.

  U.S. destroyer Reuben James is torpedoed by a U-boat off Iceland, October 20.

  Bletchley Park code breakers appeal directly to Churchill to address their acute manpower and equipment shortages, October 21.

  Blackett moves to the Admiralty as chief advisor on operational research (later di
rector of Naval Operational Research), December.

  Japanese attack Pearl Harbor, December 7.

  1942

  U-boat offensive begins against shipping along American coast, January 13.

  Atlantic U-boats begin using four-rotor Enigma machines, interrupting Bletchley’s ability to decipher messages, February 1.

  Blackett opposes strategic bombing of Germany, based on calculations showing its ineffectiveness, and recommends shifting long-range aircraft to the Battle of the Atlantic, February.

  E. J. Williams submits report demonstrating the effectiveness of employing long-range aircraft equipped with radar and Leigh Lights against U-boats transiting the Bay of Biscay, February.

  Philip Morse is chosen to head U.S. Navy’s new AntiSubmarine Warfare Operations Research Group (ASWORG), March.

  Rodger Winn, head of the British Submarine Tracking Room, arrives in Washington to press the U.S. Navy to establish a similar centralized intelligence operation to coordinate antisubmarine operations, April.

  RAF Bomber Command launches 1,000-plane attack on Cologne, May 30.

  Cecil Gordon begins study of maintenance and flying schedules of Coastal

  Command aircraft that will triple their effective flying hours, June.

  Captain Wilder D. Baker of the U.S. Navy warns “the Battle of the Atlantic is being lost,” June 24.

  U-boats return to the Atlantic convoy lanes, midsummer.

  Dönitz delivers broadcast to German people warning that “even more difficult times lie ahead” in the U-boat war, July 27.

  Dönitz issues orders positively forbidding U-boats to aid survivors, September 17.

  U-boats begin to be equipped with Metox radar-warning receivers, sharply reducing effectiveness of Allied antisubmarine air patrols in the Bay of Biscay, late September.

  American and British code breakers agree to begin “full collaboration” on the naval Enigma problem, October.

  U.S. Eighth Air Force commences a series of bombing raids of questionable effectiveness against heavily reinforced U-boat bases in France, October 21.