Ultimatum

by Matthew Glass

  “Does Wen know?”

  “That’s an interesting question, sir. There’s quite a lot of debate about that. Even if he does know, anything can happen between now and the party congress next year when he’s due to announce his successor. Each of the three heirs apparent are using this time to shore up support. That’s support through Wen, to keep his favor, and independent of Wen, so that if Wen turns against them, they’ve got their own power base. Ding’s the wiliest, but the others are no slouches. You don’t get to a high position in the party without knowing what you’re doing. What we’re talking about here sounds big, Mr. President, possibly the biggest thing since the troubles of 2013. Everyone will use it for their own purposes if they can.”

  “What about sanctions?” asked the president.

  “They’ll outlast us. I’ve read the papers that were circulated. Anything we can do, they’ll sustain it for longer.”

  “Exactly,” said Ball.

  “Unless it’s in someone’s interest not to.”

  “Explain,” said the president.

  “Say, for example, we impose sanctions, and Wen resists. Say Ding Jiahui thinks—for whatever reason—this is a time he can push against Wen and establish his place in the succession beyond challenge. It doesn’t have to be Ding. It could be Zhai, it could be Xuan. Each of them controls media outlets. They’ll use that control to work up a case against Wen, tying him to the sanctions and the pain it’s causing. Two months later, you might find you’re talking to someone who wants the sanctions lifted and is prepared to cut a deal.”

  “But it wouldn’t be Wen?”

  “It could be Wen. He could do the exact same thing in reverse. Say he’s decided to take Xuan out of the equation. He uses Xuan as his mouthpiece in defying you to impose sanctions, and Xuan does it, thinking he’ll build his relationship with Wen and achieve national approval. Then Wen changes course, uses Ding to cut a deal with you, and Xuan is discredited.”

  “Dr. Wu,” said Eales, “I think we need something on the likely ways this might play out.”

  Wu nodded.

  “Can you do that?”

  “I can. But I have to say, there are numerous ways this could go. I can try and say which scenario is more likely, but that still leaves considerable uncertainty. I’d be more comfortable if I could take this out to some other people at State.”

  “Not yet,” said the president. “Just give us your thoughts, for a start.”

  Larry Olsen’s voice came through from the speaker. “Maybe we should get Chen in and give him a hint. Mention the S word.”

  “Sanctions?” said Eales.

  “Why not?”

  The president was watching Alan Ball. Ball’s face was grim.

  “Just to see what happens,” said Olsen. “It might be interesting.”

  Benton thought about it. “It might be.”

  ~ * ~

  Alan Ball asked for a few minutes of the president’s time at the end of the meeting. He stayed behind as the others left the Oval Office.

  Benton waited to hear what he wanted to say.

  Ball’s face was grave. “Joe, I have a real concern. I know you’d want me to be open with you. Olsen’s pushing us way too fast. If we’re not careful, we’re going to find ourselves imposing sanctions on China.”

  Benton smiled. “I think we’re a long way from that, Alan.”

  “Not in Larry’s mind. Is that what you really want?”

  Sanctions against China were the last thing Joe Benton wanted to invoke, and he thought Alan Ball ought to know it.

  Ball hesitated. His voice dropped. “Joe, I think you should reconsider.”

  “Reconsider what?”

  Ball didn’t reply.

  Benton stared at him. “You think I should reconsider Larry?”

  “I don’t mean to talk out of turn.”

  Benton watched him. He had already spoken out of turn, and must know it. Benton also found something unpleasant in the fact that Ball was doing it when Olsen was out of Washington.

  “I wouldn’t be saying anything if I didn’t think this was really important. I think we have a real problem here.”

  “Go ahead, Alan,” said Benton quietly.

  “You appointed Larry because he gave you a perspective you value, one which was different from the perspective that myself and Al Graham and a number of other advisors shared. I understand that. By all means, Joe, use him as an advisor. Get his input. But putting him in as secretary of state. . . He’s rash. He’s aggressive. He’s putting us in a position that’s way too hard. Now he wants to start imposing sanctions.”

  “He said something about a hint. I don’t even know what that means yet.”

  “That’s what I’m worried about.”

  “It’s okay. We have an agreement. He’s not going to say anything to Chen before I speak with him.”

  Ball shook his head in exasperation. “He’s...”

  “What, Alan?”

  “He’s not the right guy!” Ball’s hands were clenched in exasperation. “Ask anyone who worked with him at State. I’m just being completely frank with you.”

  “I appreciate your frankness,” said the president evenly.

  “Really, he isn’t. Joe, if you’ve made a mistake, it’s best to recognize it early and do something about it, not keep going so one mistake gets compounded by another.”

  Joe Benton was silent for a moment.

  “I hear what you’re saying, Al, but I’m not sure if I have made a mistake. To be fair to Larry, I’m not sure at what point I’d say he’s done the wrong thing. Where he’s been toe rash, as you call it. And in the end, I take responsibility for the decisions this administration makes. Me, not Larry.” Benton paused. “But I will think about what you’ve said. And I will talk to Larry and see exactly what he means to say to Chen before he meets him.”

  Ball’s face was a picture of misery. “Please, Joe. Please, don’t let him talk to Chen.”

  ~ * ~

  Wednesday, February 23

  West Wing, The White House

  Chen Liangming looked around the room. “I see our numbers are growing,” he remarked.

  “Mr. Chen, this is Dr. Wu,” said Larry Olsen. “He works at the State Department. You may know him.”

  Chen shook his head.

  Oliver Wu extended his hand.

  “We have no intention to ambush you, Mr. Chen,” said Ben Hoffman. “If you’re uncomfortable being here as a lone hand, we can rearrange this meeting so you have the opportunity to call on additional resource.”

  Chen smiled. He shook his head again.

  “Then would you care to sit?”

  Chen sat. The others took their seats as well.

  “It’s about three weeks since we met?” said Olsen.

  “Yes, Mr. Secretary.”

  “I hope you had a good Chinese New Year.”

  “Thank you, Mr. Secretary. I was fortunate to be able to go home.”

  “To Guangdong?”

  “Yes. To Guangdong.” Chen turned to Wu. “Where is your home village?” he said in Mandarin.

  “I met Ambassador Liu the other day,” said Olsen. “We had a very good talk.”

  Chen gazed at Wu for a moment longer, then looked back at Olsen. “So I understand, Mr. Secretary.”

  “The ambassador expressed his hope that I would soon meet Foreign Minister Chou.”

  Chen nodded.

  “I look forward to that as well.”

  “Yes, Mr. Secretary.”

  “Mr. Chen, I believe we’re still waiting for a proposal from your government.”

  “Mr. Secretary, we are waiting for an indication from President Benton whether he will accept an invitation from President Wen.”

  “As I told you last time, Mr. Chen, such an invitation would be warmly accepted at the right time.”

  “Am I to deduce that this is not the right time?” inquired Chen.

  “Yes, Mr. Chen. I think that’s a fair deduction. You can
also deduce the time won’t be right until President Benton has seen your government’s proposal.”

  Chen didn’t reply immediately. He glanced at Wu again. Oliver Wu was accustomed to those kinds of glances from Chinese officials, accusatory, hostile, as if to ask him what kind of a traitor he was to be working with the Americans, betraying his own people. None of them ever seemed to consider that he was a third-generation American, born in Sacramento where his father was a California state official, educated at Berkeley and Harvard, and that the citizens of the United States, not China, were his people.

  “Mr. Secretary,” said Chen, “as I said last time, the last proposal made by President Gartner is still under consideration. President Wen has serious reservations about this proposal and its manifest unfairness towards the Chinese people, but perhaps there is some way in which we can continue to talk about this. If President Benton chooses to show his willingness to accept President Wen’s respectful invitation, I’m sure we will find a way to achieve this.”

  Olsen was silent. He closed his eyes for a moment, then looked at Chen again. “All right, Mr. Chen, I’m going to explain one more time. You can tell your government to stop wasting its time with the Gartner proposal, because it is no longer on the table with the Benton administration.”

  “But it’s a commitment from the United States government, Mr. Secretary. If the Chinese government cannot rely—”

  “No, sir, it was not a commitment from the United States government. Let’s get that clear once and for all. If there’s any doubt, I have a copy right here. The Gartner proposal was an unofficial, time-limited framework— not even a proposal in the true sense, but a framework—that has lapsed. If the Chinese government wasn’t able to respond in a timely fashion, so be it.”

  “But, Mr. Secretary…”

  “Mr. Chen, let’s not get bogged down over that. It’s done. It’s finished. Your government had the chance to take it and it didn’t. Since it was manifestly unfair to the Chinese people, as you put it, I presume you’re glad it didn’t.” Olsen paused. “So now we’re clear, correct? As to President Wen making a proposal dependent on President Benton accepting an invitation to Beijing, at this stage that isn’t going to work. Let’s be realistic.”

  “President Wen believes this is a very realistic channel to a resolution of this issue. He is prepared for the government of the People’s Republic of China to issue a formal invitation as soon as it has President Benton’s assurance of acceptance.”

  Olsen sat forward. “Chen, that’s not going to happen. You and I know each other well. So please stop suggesting that because every time you do I’m just going to have to tell you again it isn’t going to happen.”

  Chen was silent. He looked at Wu. Wu held his gaze, knowing it was important not to be stared down.

  “What we’re waiting for, Mr. Chen, is a proposal from your government. We’re only looking for a fair agreement, not an unequal treaty. I would like to be able to tell President Benton when we’re likely to receive that proposal. Mr. Hoffman, the president is eager to know, isn’t he?”

  Ben Hoffman nodded.

  “Mr. Chen?” said Olsen.

  “I can of course relay your request to my government.”

  “I’m assuming you’ve already done that. After all, I put this request to you at our first meeting a month ago. Didn’t you relay it then?”

  Chen didn’t reply.

  “Did you not relay it, Mr. Chen? It’s critical that I know that when I speak with you I can be sure President Wen knows what I have said.”

  “I relayed to my government a full account of our meeting, Mr. Secretary.”

  “Including my request?”

  “I relayed a full account,” repeated Chen quietly.

  “Very good. And you’ll relay a full account of this meeting as well, will you not?”

  Chen nodded.

  “Well, when you do, make sure you tell President Wen this. The government of the United States, if it must act without the cooperation of the government of the People’s Republic of China in a matter that is crucial to the future of our planet, will take actions that reflect this fact. We are friendly to your country and wish to remain so, but any government that does not cooperate with the United States in solving a global problem of this magnitude, a problem of carbon emissions that affects us all, cannot count itself a friend of this country, and cannot expect to be treated as one. Now, in relation to unfriendly governments, the United States exerts reasonable, peaceful sanctions, to encourage a return to friendship. Do you understand that, Mr. Chen? Do you understand what I’m saying?”

  “Are you sure you want me to tell this to President Wen?”

  “Very sure.”

  Chen smiled.

  “You find that funny?”

  “I fear your country will find itself much alone if it goes this way, Mr. Secretary.”

  “The United States of America has often been alone. That’s what leadership demands. Some of this country’s greatest moments have been because it was prepared to stand alone for what it believed was right. You forget, this country was born in an act of standing alone against the oppression of empire.”

  “Very patriotic, Mr. Secretary.” Chen nodded. “I applaud you.” His tone was heavily sardonic.

  Olsen stood up. “Until we have a response to our request, there is very little further for us to discuss. I look forward to your government’s answer.”

  Chen stood as well. He shook hands with Olsen and Hoffman. He threw a glance at Oliver Wu and then walked out of the room.

  Olsen sat down once the door was closed.

  “What do you think?” he said to Wu.

  “He’s like I’ve heard about him.”

  “And he’s Wen’s man?” said Olsen. “That’s still true, right?”

  Wu nodded. “He was close to Zhai for a while, but when he had to choose, he came home to Uncle Wen. At this stage, whatever happens, Chen’ll have no career after Wen’s gone. He doesn’t have to worry about the struggle over the succession. He’s Wen’s man, heart and soul.

  “So when we talk to him, the message gets through?” asked Ben Hoffman.

  “To Wen? Sure, unless Chen chooses not to give it. And there’d be no reason for him to do that. His role isn’t to filter, it’s to let Wen know exactly what he sees and hears. That’s his value to Wen.”

  “And what comes back from him comes from Wen?”

  Wu smiled. “What comes from Chen Liangming, Mr. Hoffman, is one of the things that comes from Wen.”

  ~ * ~

  Tuesday, March 8

  Air Force One, east of Seattle

  They were ninety minutes from landing. Around Joe Benton, in his office on the plane, sat John Eales, Jodie Ames, Sam Levy, Hilary Battle, the secretary of education, Amanda Pavlich, Battle’s spokesperson, Ewen MacMaster, the White House education policy aide, and a couple of additional aides whom Battle had brought along.

  The president worked through the speech that he was to deliver that evening at the University of Washington. The next day he was going to a tour a high school, visit an elementary school, and address a town hall style meeting at a state college. The speech at the university was to be a keynote on the administration’s education policy, a careful mixture of policy and aspiration tying education into the broader New Foundation program, and it had been crafted largely by Sam Levy and Ewen MacMaster. Hilary Battle and her people were still fighting over the nuances, trying to reduce the references to other elements of New Foundation and focus the speech more exclusively on education. Joe Benton had had no time for the speech, and far too little time for education policy in general since he took office. But Sam, Ewen and Jodie Ames knew the president’s mind better than Hilary Battle, they knew the strategy for selling New Foundation as a package, and they had got the balance about right. As he reviewed the speech, Benton was changing very little.

  There was a knock on the door. The president looked up from his pages as Connor Gale c
ame in.

  “Mr. President, I’ve just been speaking with Mr. Hoffman. There’s something he wants you to see.”

  “Now?”

  Impatient glances were being sent at Connor from all around the room.