Conspiracies Declassified
Page 7
Similar problems plague other claims made by chemtrail believers, such as the idea that the government is spraying mind-control drugs. There are a number of factual problems with the idea of drugging a population by spraying the compound from airlines. The main problem is that airliners fly way too high. The jet streams would carry the drug far away from the areas it was sprayed over, and the majority of it would rain down into the oceans. Note that when crop dusters spray fields, it’s done at an altitude of only around 500 to 1,000 feet, not thousands of feet. The chemicals are expensive, and we usually want them to go where we intend.
Another problem is the concentration. Any drug released from a plane wouldn’t be concentrated enough to have an effect—even if by some miracle it floated directly down rather than being carried away by the jet streams. Think about it this way, when a dentist gives nitrous oxide, it’s given at a concentration of about 30 percent. But stratospheric delivery at airliner fuel tank volumes, by any reasonable calculation, would result in a concentration measured in parts per trillion. There really aren’t any medical gases that produce a pharmacological effect in such trace quantities.
We encounter similar problems if we take the alternate theory that the idea is to address global warming instead of drugging the populace. Again, the altitude at which planes fly is the culprit. If airliners were trying to spray something into the troposphere where they fly, it would soon rain right back down to Earth. If you wanted it to stay up there, you would need to put it well up into the stratosphere instead.
Such geoengineering has actually been studied, and may indeed be enacted. This theorized technique is called SAI (stratospheric aerosol injection) and it involves the act of depositing certain compounds into the stratosphere, resulting in a screen of sulfate aerosols to reflect a tiny percentage of sunlight back into space. Airliners fly at a maximum of 45,000 feet, but the sulfate aerosol gases work best to reflect sunlight at an altitude about twice that high. In addition, it would be impossible to get enough of the compound even up as high as only 45,000 feet without making an unreasonably huge number of flights, up to a million a year! Fighter-type aircraft could be used, but balloons or rockets would be better choices, both for cost and payload. So if SAI was indeed happening clandestinely, visible aircraft chemtrails would likely not be correlated with it, as planes fly too low, would be too expensive, and can’t carry enough payload.
But does the 1996 Air Force report “Weather As a Force Multiplier” prove that we are indeed using chemtrails to change weather? Not if you read it carefully. Not only does the report say that “artificial weather technologies do not currently exist,” but it actually proclaims clearly on its second page, “This report contains fictional representations of future situations/scenarios.”
The chemtrail theory also suffers from a total lack of evidence. If airliners around the world truly all had been retrofitted with huge chemical tanks and spraying equipment, airport maintenance workers would know about it. No one has ever produced any photographs or other evidence. The pictures online of airplane interiors filled with large tanks and pipes turn out to simply be ballast tanks used in testing of airliners.
Contrails are 100 percent reproducible and are often visible when you look up into the sky. When we compare a known, proven phenomenon to a purely speculative, implausible, and scientifically impossible phenomenon, it doesn’t take much computation to determine which is the real explanation.
PART 3
Suspicious Deaths
Whenever some person of prominence dies, there’s almost always somebody whose agenda is accidentally satisfied. This, of course, makes it really easy to paint anyone who’s benefited from the death as a murder suspect. This is the basic genesis of every conspiracy theory surrounding the mysterious death of someone famous. And when a theory starts, you know you’re looking at that rare occasion where the death is somehow unusual, and the person is well enough known that the public wonders about them.
The deaths of the famous people that you’ll find in this part are among those that provoked the strongest responses in conspiratorial thinking. No way, the theorists think, could these deaths have been accidents, or carried out in the way the “official story” claims. Our need to see patterns in randomness means that these deaths, tragic and thoroughly resolved as they are, will always remain suspicious in the eyes of many. Let’s take a look.
Amelia Earhart
* * *
Date: 1937
Location: Pacific Ocean
The Conspirators: The Japanese military
The Victims: Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan
* * *
The Theory
History tells us that pioneering aviator Amelia Earhart perished at sea along with her navigator Fred Noonan when attempting to be the first female pilot to fly around the world in 1937. Some conspiracy theorists, however, reject this fact, and embrace one of several alternate fates for Earhart. Among the most popular alternate beliefs is that she was captured by the Japanese and held prisoner for espionage. Most theorists do not claim to know Earhart’s ultimate fate, but usually believe that she was eventually killed by her captors. Others cling to a different history in which Earhart flew to a remote island where she crashed safely and lived for a time as a castaway.
The Truth
Amelia Earhart ran out of fuel in the immediate vicinity of her intended refueling stop while flying a search pattern.
The Backstory
At the time of her disappearance, Amelia Earhart was one of the most famous people in the world, and arguably the single most famous woman. Her round-the-world flight caused a media circus at every stop. So when it ended prematurely in tragedy, wild stories were proposed almost immediately.
Earhart and Noonan were on the third-to-last leg of their round-the-world flight in 1937. They were flying from Lae in Papua New Guinea to an island called Howland, a small, bleak atoll with nothing on it but an airstrip, which was used by the United States as a refueling point. From there they planned to go to Honolulu, refuel again, then complete their trip by flying to Oakland, California. A US Coast Guard cutter, the Itasca, regularly serviced the airstrip at Howland Island and would stand by to provide a radio direction-finding beam to incoming planes, including the one piloted by Earhart and Noonan. As history shows, Earhart and Noonan failed to reach Howland, disappearing somewhere in the immediate vicinity. And that’s when all the conspiracy theories and alternate histories began to appear.
Many ships were involved in the search for Earhart, not only US Navy ships, but also ships of the Japanese navy and fishing boats as well. Earhart’s fame was such that anyone in the area with a boat sped to the region to help. Some conspiracy theorists believe that one of the Japanese boats, either civilian or military, found Earhart and Noonan at sea and rescued them. But rather than turn them over to the Americans, they were taken prisoner, perhaps charged with espionage, and brought to the Japanese island of Saipan where they were held prisoner. There are many stories from Saipan about her captivity there, including from people who claim to have seen her. Some in Saipan promote this story to draw tourism; there is even a plan to erect a statue of Earhart there.
Skeptoid ® Says . . .
Amelia Earhart was thirty-nine years old when she died. She served as a nurse during World War I; was awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross; and held numerous speed, solo, and nonstop flight records.
There are other theories too. National Geographic and the Discovery Channel have taken sides with a group called TIGHAR (The International Group for Historic Aircraft Recovery) who claim that Earhart and Noonan, hopelessly lost and out of fuel, decided to abandon their search for Howland and fly 400 nautical miles directly out to sea in hopes of reaching an island called Nikumaroro. TIGHAR has cited an old discovery of a partial skeleton plus a number of pieces of litter that they claim have no reasonable explanation other than Earhart having survived on the island for a time as a castaway.
The Explanation
If, as some theorists claim, the Japanese took her captive to use as propaganda against the United States, then keeping her captivity a secret would have defeated the whole purpose. Also, all of the evidence that Earhart was brought to Saipan is anecdotal. The History Channel explores the possibility that it might be true in the documentary Amelia Earhart: The Lost Evidence, citing a single photograph many claim is Earhart seen from behind in the distance, sitting on a dock at a port called Jaluit, presumably being allowed ashore to stretch her legs on the way to Saipan. The photo also appears in a 1935 picture book published in Japan, so it clearly cannot be relevant. And if it’s not relevant, that whole part of the theory goes up in smoke.
When it comes to the theory of Earhart and Noonan reaching the island of Nikumaroro, that’s easily debunked as well. The pair had no reliable navigation vector and no remaining fuel. TIGHAR claims that this strategy was successful since they found a few scraps of bones and litter. However, Nikumaroro had been inhabited by hundreds of littering people for a century both before and after the time of Earhart’s flight, so their claims that these bits of trash could only be explained by Earhart’s life as a castaway are unlikely.
Earhart’s disappearance is often characterized as an “unsolved mystery,” but the final fate of Earhart and Noonan is actually known beyond any reasonable doubt. The first thing to understand is that aviation in the Pacific Ocean was not nearly as primitive as many theorists seem to believe. At the time of her flight, Pan Am Clipper flying boats were already making scheduled passenger flights across the ocean. US Navy aircraft carriers had been flying in the area for years, and naval aviators had flown just about everywhere. The island Earhart was targeting, Howland, was a heavily used refueling stop for airplanes. In context of the state of aviation over the Pacific in the late 1930s, there was really nothing unusual or especially risky about Earhart’s flight.
In addition, the Itasca was highly experienced at guiding planes into Howland and refueling them. In fact, the Itasca had to temporarily leave the search for Earhart to return to Howland to refuel another plane that was coming in from Hawaii. Also, the Itasca’s radio operators kept meticulous logs of what transmissions were received, and Earhart and Noonan told them their direction and their signal strength (indicating the distance) over the radio. The pair had properly navigated to the island, relying both on the Itasca’s direction-finding beam, and on Noonan’s expertise with the E6B flight computer. The problem was that they arrived slightly ahead of schedule, and passed over Howland (or nearby) just at sunrise with the sun’s glare directly in their eyes, which caused them to miss seeing the island. Once the error was discovered, they advised the Itasca that they were in the immediate vicinity and were flying a search pattern. They kept the Itasca advised of their diminishing fuel levels, and continued with the search pattern until they ran out and ditched at sea. As we know, the search was unsuccessful.
That is tragic but unsurprising, given the vast size of the search area. The boundaries of the area where the plane went down were determined by the Itasca’s radio technicians and verified by other Navy and Coast Guard experts. It was a pie slice north-northeast of Howland with its sides at 337° and 45°, its minimum distance at 40 nautical miles, and its maximum distance at 200 nautical miles. This area covers 30,000 square miles, which made the search close to hopeless. All of this information, and its supporting data, is freely available from the National Archives in the Navy’s ninety-six-page report.
JFK
* * *
Date: 1963
Location: Dallas, Texas
The Conspirators: Almost everyone in the world, apparently, except Lee Harvey Oswald
The Victim: President John F. Kennedy
* * *
The Theory
President John F. Kennedy was assassinated on November 22, 1963, in Dallas, Texas, while on an official visit. Soon police arrested Lee Harvey Oswald, an ex-marine who had lived for a time in the Soviet Union. Many conspiracy theorists believe that Oswald was a scapegoat who had nothing to do with the killing whatsoever. Kennedy was killed by a conspiracy, they claim, and the government pinned the blame on Oswald to cover it up. Variations on this theory are seemingly countless.
The Truth
All available evidence shows that JFK was assassinated by a lone gunman whose psychological profile matches very closely with similar killers today. No evidence suggests otherwise.
Skeptoid ® Says . . .
There is a conspiracy theory that claims the CIA invented the term conspiracy theory in the 1960s to discredit those who doubted the finding that John F. Kennedy was killed by a lone gunman. It’s not true, of course. The term can be found in the literature as early as 1870, and quite often throughout the twentieth century. But it demonstrates that the very term conspiracy theory has developed a derogatory meaning. Conspiracy theorists don’t care to have the term applied to them, and so they came up with a story to dismiss it.
The Backstory
Lee Harvey Oswald was a former US Marine living in Dallas. He had a wife and two children, but that’s where his similarity to the “all-American boy” ends. For he was also a self-described Marxist who had lived for two years in the Soviet Union, and his wife was Russian. Oswald was angry at the anti-Communist attitude of the United States, and at President John F. Kennedy’s actions against Cuba, such as the near military outbreaks of the Bay of Pigs and the Cuban Missile Crisis. So when Oswald learned that JFK would be coming to town—and would be driving right past the place where Oswald worked—he brought a little something extra to the office that day: a 6.5 mm Carcano model 91/38 scoped rifle.
From a sixth-floor window of the Texas School Book Depository building where he worked, Oswald killed Kennedy with three shots from his rifle. But he’d been seen, and a description went out over police radio. Forty-five minutes later, a police officer stopped a young man on the street who matched the description. The man pulled out a pistol and shot the officer dead, then ran into a movie theater, pursued by citizens and other police officers. Oswald was captured and arrested, just as his clumsily hidden rifle was being found.
But he was never tried. Two days later, as Oswald was being led through a crowd of reporters at the police station, local nightclub owner Jack Ruby ran up and shot him at point-blank range, killing him. Ruby was said to have had mob connections, suggesting a Mafia connection to JFK’s slaying, and thus was born a barrage of conspiracy theories the likes of which the world has never seen before or since.
Surveys indicate that today more than half of Americans do not believe that Oswald acted alone. Claims by conspiracy theorists include the idea that Lyndon B. Johnson had JFK killed so he could ascend to the presidency; the Mafia had JFK killed to retaliate for his actions against organized crime; the CIA had him killed for one reason or another, including that he wasn’t tough enough on Castro; the Soviets or Cubans had him killed for his stance against Communism; the Ku Klux Klan killed him because of his support for civil rights; and so on, and so on. If it can be imagined, some conspiracy theorist has proposed it, and probably takes it very, very seriously.
Skeptoid ® Says . . .
There are more than 200 conspiracy theories based around JFK’s death. If you’re interested in deep analysis of any given theory, check out Vincent Bugliosi’s 1,648-page book Reclaiming History: The Assassination of President John F. Kennedy (2007), which breaks down 214 JFK conspiracies implicating at least 82 different triggermen. Obviously all of these theories can’
t be true. In fact, if even 1 of those 214 is true, it means that any given JFK conspiracy theory is only 0.47 percent likely to be true. They all contradict one another. Some even contradict themselves; for example, one claims that JFK was killed by the government and that he is still alive.
The Explanation
Following Kennedy’s death, newly instated President Lyndon B. Johnson ordered the chief justice of the Supreme Court to chair a commission, later called the Warren Commission, to investigate what happened and who was responsible for JFK’s assassination. The 889-page Warren Commission Report took nearly a year to produce and the investigation didn’t find any evidence whatsoever of anyone acting in concert with Lee Harvey Oswald. According to all they could uncover, he (and also Jack Ruby) had acted completely alone.
Skeptoid ® Says . . .
A crucial point is the conspiracy theorists’ use of the phrase “official story.” These are weasel words, used disparagingly to cast doubt without actually saying anything of substance. Another weasel phrase used often in anti-government conspiracy theories is “the government’s version of events.” These two phrases are used calculatingly. When conspiracy theorists refer to the Warren Commission Report as an “official story” they do so to give the impression that other equally plausible stories exist as well, and that this one is tainted by its association with a powerful government capable of creating false narratives.