Counter Poised

by John Spikenard

  General Metcalf, the air force chief of staff rose at the CNO’s side. His slender athletic build and short-cropped hair reminded Lannis of Admiral Yates. “I concur. Our system recognizes that it may be possible for one loose cannon to slip through the cracks every now and then, but that’s why we have the ‘two-man rule’ for any actions dealing with nuclear weapons. No one man or woman can do something crazy because someone else who’s not crazy will be looking over their shoulder. The chances are practically nil that you’ll have two crazies in a sensitive position at the same time. But you’re not talking about two crazies in the same place at the same time, you’re talking about fifty!”

  As Admiral Byers and General Metcalf sat down, the room went crazy! Everyone shouted at the same time, trying to be heard over the din. Nobody believed Lannis’s conclusion. In their universe, such an event was completely impossible! Like the Native Americans who reportedly could not see the Spanish galleons sailing into their bay because “canoes” could not be so large, the gathered officers could not comprehend what had happened. Then General Naeger, the commandant of the Marine Corps, rose and walked to the podium where Lannis stood defensively. The commandant took the microphone from its stand in front of Lannis and turned to face the audience.

  “Let me have your attention, please. Everyone take your seats and let me have your attention.” The noise level finally dropped as the officers sat down and turned their attention to the commandant.

  “There’s a component to this analysis that’s missing in your thinking. What all of you seem to have forgotten over the last five years is that our nation’s capital was obliterated by Islamic terrorists and over two hundred thousand people were killed! Now I get out and talk to my marines on a regular basis. I don’t know about the members of other services, but my marines take that personally. They are frustrated with the political response that this country took, and they are frustrated that nothing has been done to prevent it from happening again.”

  Admiral Byers stood and responded. “General Naeger, we feel that way in all the services. The marines are not alone. We all recognize that our national defense strategy is flawed because we can’t deter nuclear terrorism. And in the event of an attack, we can’t strike back at the perpetrators. It’s frustrating to all of us because no matter how hard we train, we can’t correct this problem. But by the same token, we are all professionals. We do our job whether we like it or not!”

  “I’m sure you do, Admiral. But despite that, there are parts of the system that are broken. Just look at the Personnel Reliability Program about which you speak so highly. The PRP program hasn’t been changed significantly since the early 1970s. Thanks to DC, there’s a whole new dynamic now in the way military people think about the world and their role in it. But we didn’t modify the PRP program to match. We were still using a B.DC program A.DC.”

  “B.DC and A.DC?” asked Admiral Byers.

  “Sorry—that’s Before DC and After DC. We didn’t modify the psychological testing after the attack on DC. We didn’t modify the background checks to identify people who lost loved ones or friends in DC. We should have been identifying those people so we could give them special attention. No matter how professional they are, military people are still human, and all humans have weaknesses.”

  Admiral Byers shook his head and sighed. “Okay, I agree some mistakes were made. But I know George Adams personally, and I know he’s professional—clear to the bone. He would never willingly take such an action. If he’s doing this, he has to be doing it under duress.” Admiral Byers was grasping at straws. “Maybe he’s being blackmailed somehow. Maybe he was contacted by terrorists who have a nuke in the U.S., and they told him they would detonate it if he didn’t hijack the submarine. It seems that’s just as likely as Commander Wayne’s scenario!”

  Lannis stepped to the commandant’s side and indicated he had a response for the CNO. The commandant handed him the microphone.

  “Admiral, I also know George Adams personally. We served together on the SUBLANT staff for three years. We rode in the same carpool for two of those years. And I can tell you, George Adams would do this—if he had the chance. He was assigned to fly reconnaissance drones over DC looking for survivors after the blast. He was devastated by what he saw. He was frustrated by our political response; he was frustrated that nothing had been done to prevent a recurrence; and he talked openly about ballistic missile submarines being obsolete as a deterrent force in the age of nuclear terrorism.”

  “Yes, but did you interview other people who knew him personally?” asked Admiral Byers.

  “Yes, sir, as part of my investigation, I interviewed a number of people. I spoke to his administrative assistant, Petty Office Leona Harris, but she claimed she only knew him professionally, and he never confided personal feelings with her. I also interviewed Commander Robert Sewell, now the commanding officer of the attack submarine USS Texas. He was also on the SUBLANT staff with George Adams and was one of his closest friends. Commander Sewell was surprised that Adams would go to this extreme, but he confirmed that Adams was extremely frustrated with the status quo. When it comes right down to it, Admiral, George Adams had the capability, the motivation, and the opportunity to do this. My conclusion is that if anyone could and would do this, it would be George Adams!”

  The room fell silent once again. Nobody wanted to vocalize what they all feared: Had Adams gone mad? Was he going to wreak revenge on the Muslim world? Was he going to hold the world at ransom? Or had he decided to implement his own brand of the MAD doctrine?

  Chapter 25

  August 25, The President’s Office, Philadelphia, PA

  “Just have a seat, Commander Wayne. I want to have an informal discussion rather than a formal briefing,” said President Thornton.

  “Yes, Mister President,” said Lannis as he nervously sat down at the large conference table in the president’s office complex. Several other members of the president’s staff joined them. General Daramus, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, sat next to Lannis. The general had arranged this afternoon meeting immediately after Lannis’s shocking briefing to the combined military staffs that morning.

  “First reactions can be very telling,” began President Thornton. “Let’s review what happened in the Muslim world after the attack on Washington. With the passage of time, we tend to forget the immediate reactions of different countries around the world. Those same countries try to smooth things over later when they realize they have tipped their hands.”

  “Yes, Mister President.” said Lannis. “Reaction within the Muslim world was mixed. All countries officially expressed their sorrow and offered assistance, and I believe most true Muslims were as horrified as we were, but there were still those more radical Muslims who openly celebrated. There were rejoiceful demonstrations, for example, in Gaza, the West Bank, and Tehran.”

  President Thornton sighed. “It’s hard for me to believe that by that time, members of Hamas, Fatah, Islamic Jihad, and other radical Muslim groups still didn’t understand that there wasn’t any country in the world that had done more than the United States of America to bring the hope of a Palestinian State to reality. Commander Wayne, did you know that over the terms of four different U.S. presidents, we pressured both Israel and the Palestinian Authority to come to the bargaining table? Under President Clinton’s guidance, the ruling Fatah party struck from their political platform a covenant to annihilate Israel—a political move essential to the formation of a Palestinian State. But at Camp David, Prime Minister Yasser Arafat was unable to approve a final agreement with Israel that would have established the Palestinian State.”

  “Yes, sir. As I recall, officials in the U.S. State Department blamed Arafat, concluding that although he had been a dynamic leader of an insurrection, he was unable to make the transition to statesman.”

  “Yes, that’s true. It was a sad day for the Palestinians and the Middle East.”

  “If I may, sir, I’d like to share a different opin
ion told to me by Commander George Adams.”

  “Yes, by all means. Any insight into Adams’s character is welcome.”

  “In Commander Adams’s opinion, Arafat knew perfectly well what he was doing. He refused to approve the agreement with Israel because upwards of thirty or forty percent of the Palestinian people still demanded Israel’s destruction. Signing the agreement would have caused a Palestinian civil war—and probably would have cost Arafat his life.”

  “Well, that’s quite possible,” General Daramus agreed. “We know militant groups like Hamas were founded on detailed charters calling for the destruction of Israel. Over the years, they have simply refused to give up this policy even though it has proven to be self-destructive. It has always been my opinion there would have been a Palestinian State as early as 1985, if the Palestinians had just given up their violent ways and acknowledged Israel’s right to exist.”

  “But their militant leaders let their hatred of the Jews override their love of their families and countrymen,” ventured Lannis. “And thousands of followers have continued to blindly follow the orders of their misguided leaders, never stopping to research the facts on their own or form their own opinions.”

  The president looked around the room at the assembled officials. “We all know that the Washington bomber, Mahfouz al-Bedawi, came from Palestine. In retrospect, we probably should have seen it coming. The Hamas victory in the Palestinian parliamentary elections in January 2006 did nothing to help the Palestinian cause. Over the years, the Palestinian Authority had become totally dependent for its survival on aid from the Quartet: the United States, the European Union, Russia, and the United Nations. Hamas’s victory prompted the Quartet to demand that Hamas denounce violence and eliminate its commitment to destroy Israel as conditions for continued aid. Hamas, predictably, refused to do so.”

  “Yes, sir,” said Lannis. “And as a result, the Quartet cut off aid.”

  “Well, the resulting scenes in Gaza and the West Bank were pathetic,” continued the president. “Armed militants took to the streets, shooting their rifles into the air while demanding that aid be restored. Meanwhile, their wives and families cowered in their homes, starving. Gun battles broke out between Fatah supporters and Hamas. Appeals for aid were made to private organizations around the world, but with the continuing violence, it was impossible to get adequate amounts of food or medical supplies into the ravaged area. Basically, the once proud Palestinians became the world’s premier beggars, all because they could not let go of their hatred of the Jews.”

  Lannis responded, “Hamas leaders, of course, blamed the Quartet, and particularly the United States, for all of their problems.”

  “That’s exactly right. By their way of thinking, the problem couldn’t possibly be their own. And it was from the midst of this chaos, hatred, and total despair that al-Qaeda found their nuclear suicide bomber. The lesson being, if we are threatened again, we should look to similar places as being the source of the threat.”

  “But if the Louisiana launches her missiles against the Muslim world, Mister President, we’ll have much bigger problems,” noted General Daramus.

  “And from the NO FEAR message we received, she appears to be headed in that direction,” said Lannis.

  “Can we track where it came from?” asked President Thornton.

  “Not exactly, but we can narrow it down to within a few hundred square miles,” Lannis answered. “It appears to have been broadcast from the South Atlantic—several hundred miles off the west coast of Angola. It looks as though they may be about to round the Cape of Good Hope, and head for the Indian Ocean. From there, the four thousand nautical mile range of the Louisiana’s D-5 ballistic missiles would enable them to hit practically any Muslim target in Africa, the Middle East, or Asia.”

  “Jeezum Crow!” the president responded, unconsciously slipping back to his Vermont roots. He had said that a lot lately. “Maybe the rumor is true. If Adams plans to attack Mecca or some other Muslim holy city, he’ll start World War Three.”

  “He could be going after Iran, sir,” ventured Lannis.

  “Iran? Why single out Iran?”

  “Well, I’m sure you know the investigation of the Washington attack found evidence that the nuclear warhead used there was delivered to the East Coast by submarine.”

  “Yes…”

  “What you may not know is that Commander Adams was the executive officer of one of our attack submarines that was on East Coast patrol during the time period the warhead is believed to have been delivered. On that patrol, they had an intermittent sonar contact that was classified as a possible Kilo-class diesel-electric submarine. The crew lost the contact, but decided not to pursue it because of the unlikelihood that a Kilo would be so far from home.”

  “Ah ha! So George Adams feels some sort of personal responsibility for the DC attack?” the president asked incredulously.

  “Possibly, sir.”

  “But why Iran? As far as I’ve been briefed, there has never been any firm connection made between the Washington attack and Iran.”

  “The Russians exported Kilos to a number of countries, but only two of them would be serious contenders for being the warhead deliverer: North Korea and Iran. In the months leading up to the attack, there was no heightening of tensions with North Korea that would have provided them with the incentive to attack us. On the other hand, there were a series of showdowns with Iran during that time period with a lot of tough talk and saber-rattling. It’s not a real leap to conclude that it was an Iranian submarine that delivered the warhead.”

  “There’s no direct evidence of that, though. Is that correct?” the president asked.

  “That’s correct, sir, although we do know that an Iranian Kilo, the Yunes, deployed on April ninth of that year and, in an unusual move, disappeared into the Indian Ocean. We lost contact with her shortly thereafter and had no contact until she reappeared in approximately the same location on June seventh. As you know, the Washington attack was on May fifteenth.”

  “Was that an unusual deployment pattern for an Iranian submarine?”

  “Yes, sir. It was a highly unusual pattern because Iranian Kilos rarely leave the Persian Gulf and rarely stay out for more than two weeks.”

  “The Yunes was gone for almost two months,” noted the president. “Could she have gotten to the U.S. East Coast and back in that time?”

  “Oh yes, sir,” said Lannis. “A modern day Kilo is certainly as capable as the diesel-electric boats we had in World War Two, and those old boats made plenty of transoceanic deployments. A month each way is plenty of time. The Kilo would probably run submerged during the day to avoid detection. That’s slow going, but at night she would run much faster, either on the surface or with a snorkel, powered by her diesels.”

  “I can see why some people would conclude that Iran was the culprit,” said the president. “However, there’s no clear proof. The evidence is all circumstantial.” President Thornton grew contemplative and slipped back into his Vermont accent as he mused, almost as if to himself, “If George Adams attacks Iran, or any other Muslim country, it will be wicked bad!” Then, regaining his composure, the president continued, “There will also be uprisings and civil wars in most Western countries between their Muslim populations and the remainder of their citizens. Hell, Germany is probably three or four percent Muslim by now. France is probably five or six percent. That means five to ten million Muslims in each country. And the rest of Europe and the U.S. are almost in the same boat.”

  “Adding to our concern, Mister President, is the fact that the annual hajj pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia begins this year in mid-September—just a few weeks away,” noted General Daramus. “Millions of Muslims from around the world will converge on Mecca and Medina in the next couple of weeks. Any nuclear weapon that hits, for example, near the Ka‘abah inside the Grand Mosque of Mecca would kill a million Muslims instantly. Probably twice that many would eventually die.”

  “Jeezum Crow!”
said the president again. He paused, staring blankly at his notepad for several seconds and then asked, “What else do we know about George Adams, Commander Wayne?”

  “Sir, he graduated with honors from the U.S. Naval Academy with a degree in aerospace engineering. He has served on active duty for seventeen years, all in the nuclear-powered submarine community. His last duty station prior to the Louisiana was operations officer on the staff of the Commander, Submarine Force Atlantic Fleet.”

  “What’s a guy with an aerospace engineering degree doing in submarines?”

  “I don’t know, Mister President, but it was his first choice out of the Academy.”

  “Well, it’s interesting,” said the president. “It probably says something about his personality, but I’m not sure what. I want to know more about him other than his professional résumé. I want to know about the man. What does he think about? What makes him tick? What’s really important to him? He’s running off toward the Middle East with one of our ballistic missile submarines, and we have no idea what his intentions are! Is he going to try to blow up the entire Muslim world, or is he going to focus on Iran? Does he have any reason to hate Muslims in general, or is his hatred confined to terrorists? Did he have friends or relatives who died in DC? You knew him personally, Commander. What’s your take?”

  “He had friends who died in the attack, but no family members I’m aware of. From conversations I have had with him, I would say he definitely hates the terrorists, but I have never heard him say anything bad about Muslims in general. Personally, I would find it incredibly hard to believe George Adams was going to launch his missiles against the Muslim world. He sees the terrorists as murderers, but if he launched his missiles against populated cities, he would be no better than them. In fact, he would be worse…much worse.”